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We expect US core PCE at a consensus 0.2% MoM today, which should endorse the Fed’s shift in focus from inflation to unemployment/growth. The market impact should be limited and the next move in the dollar may well have to wait for jobs figures next week.
US initial jobless claims came in once again lower than expected (218k versus 223k) yesterday, but continuing claims – which track the speed to re-enter the jobs market – rebounded to 1.834m. Durable goods orders were stronger than expected and the expected revision lower in 2Q GDP from 3.0% to 2.9% didn’t materialise.
Market pricing for year-end Fed rates inched higher by a few basis points over the past couple of sessions, but the dollar was offered again yesterday after some positioning adjustment on Wednesday. Anyway, markets continue to factor in a 50bp cut at any of the next two meetings.
Today, August PCE data will be released. We expect a core 0.2% month-on-month print, in line with consensus, and limited market impact. Even in the case of a small deviation from consensus, the recent shift in the Fed’s focus to the employment side of its mandate means markets are less sensitive to inflation news.
We think DXY can stay around in the 100.0-101.0 range for a few days. The next big move may only happen with a jobs data surprise next week.
The first few September CPI prints across the eurozone will be published today. Both French and Spanish inflation is expected to have slowed (to 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively), although Spain’s core measure is seen rising from 2.7% to 2.8%.
German numbers are published on Monday and the eurozone-wide figures on Tuesday. Inflation has the potential to trigger some hawkish repricing in European Central Bank rate expectations given that Governing Council members recently showed reluctance to give in to easing pressure despite a gloomy economic picture.
EUR/USD found some support yesterday, and another break above 1.12 is surely possible into next week’s US payrolls data.
It’s been a quiet week in the UK calendar, but the weak economic indicators out of the eurozone have dealt a blow to EUR/GBP. We saw the pair test the 0.8320 level earlier this week, and while we continue to see a good case for a rebound beyond the short term as Bank of England easing may be underpriced, we probably need some inflation surprise in the eurozone to prevent 0.8300 to be tested soon.
The EUR:GBP swap rate differential collapsed as markets increased bets the eurozone’s grim outlook will force the ECB into larger cuts than the BoE, and is now at -155bp, the widest since December 2023. That should keep some pressure on the pair in the near term.
In cable, the fresh 1.34+ highs are also justified by the policy rate differential, although expectations for a 50bp Fed cut may be misplaced, and GBP/USD may start to look expensive soon.
Friday's calendar in the region indicates a rather quiet end to the week with a focus on US numbers. Only after the close of trading today will we get a sovereign rating review of Romania from Moody's. Still, CEE currencies have come under pressure over the past two days and we may see some attractive levels across the board. EUR/HUF quickly moved up to 396, which was the level we mentioned in the National Bank of Hungary review following Tuesday's central bank decision to cut rates by 25bp. For now, we see no reason to move to the 400 level, but given the repricing in the rates market in a dovish direction, we remain bearish on the forint and potentially expect more weakness.
On the other hand, EUR/PLN has been moving higher for the last two days, touching 4.280 this morning, with no visible reason to us, and the zloty is showing attractive levels for new buyers, especially ahead of the inflation print and National Bank of Poland meeting next week. On the other hand, EUR/CZK remains steady after the Czech National Bank meeting this week and the end of yesterday's trading suggests a move lower, which we discussed here earlier this week. Despite the dovish market pricing, we believe that even the current rate levels would imply a stronger koruna while a possible repricing may add additional impetus to the CZK. We therefore remain bullish on CZK, however, today's direction will be mainly driven by US data across the region.
EUR/USD slumps below 1.1150 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair faces sharp selling pressure as the Euro (EUR) declines after the flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) (EU Norm) and the Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data showed that price pressures grew at a slower-than-expected pace in September.
A sharp deceleration in French and Spanish inflationary pressures has prompted market expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates again in the October meeting. This would be the third interest rate cut by the ECB in its current policy-easing cycle, which started in June. The ECB reduced interest rates again in September after leaving them unchanged in July.
Annual CPI in France grew at a pace of 1.5%, sharply lower than estimates of 1.9% and the former release of 2.2%. On month, price pressures deflated at a robust pace of 1.2%, faster than expectations of 0.8%.
In Spain, the annual HICP rose by 1.7%, slower than estimates of 1.9% and from 2.4% in August. On month, the HICP declined by 0.1%, which was expected to remain flat.
EUR/USD faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rises ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for the last quarter of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher to near 100.65 but has remained inside the 100.20-101.40 range for the past two weeks.
The PCE report is expected to show that core inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in June, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.2%.
Currently, financial markets seem to be confident that the Fed will cut interest rates for the second straight time in November as inflation is on track to return to the bank’s target of 2% and policymakers are concerned over growing risks to labor demand. However, traders remain equally split over the potential rate cut size between 25 and 50 bps, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Next week, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Monday, a slew of labor market data, and the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to project the next move in the US Dollar.
EUR/USD has consolidated in a 100-pip range since Tuesday as investors look for fresh Fed-ECB interest rate cues. The major currency pair remains firm as it holds the breakout of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a daily time frame near the psychological support of 1.1000.
The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1110 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges lower below 60.00, suggesting momentum is weakening.
Looking up, a decisive break above the round-level resistance of 1.1200 will result in further appreciation toward the July 2023 high of 1.1276. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.1000 and the July 17 high near 1.0950 will be major support zones.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) fluctuates between tepid gains and losses in its major pairs on Friday, a day after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) policy meeting at which the bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%), bringing the official cash rate down to 10.50% from 10.75% previously.
Changes to interest rates can have a high impact on exchange rates. However, the cut was in line with consensus expectations, so the Peso remained relatively stable following the announcement.
Revisions to Banxico’s forecasts for the economy, however, suggest more interest rate cuts are probably on the way, with potentially negative implications for MXN.
The Mexican Peso ended the day little-changed following the Banxico interest-rate decision, closing Thursday close to where it started in its major pairs.
The bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 10.50% as expected, with four of the members of the board voting in support of the decision and one dissenter – Jonathan Heath – voting to keep rates unchanged.
Banxico did, however, revise down its inflation forecasts in light of recent data that showed a cooling in price pressures. It forecast headline inflation (INPC) at 5.1% in Q3 of 2024, down from 5.2% in the August policy statement, and at 4.3% instead of 4.4% in Q4. As for core inflation, the bank saw it falling to 3.8% in Q4 of 2024, below the 3.9% in the previous forecast, and to 3.5% in Q1 of 2025, down from 3.6% previously.
The Banxico statement noted that “Mexico’s economy is undergoing a period of weakness” and that the balance of risks to growth remains to the downside.
With lower inflation expected and doubts over economic growth, the forecast revisions suggest a greater likelihood of the Banxico making more cuts to interest rates in the future.
“We are forecasting two more 25bp cuts this year at the November 14th and December 19th meetings, respectively, bringing the year-end rate to 10.00%. This in addition to a total of 200 bps cuts throughout next year,” said Rabobank in a note.
Advisory service Capital Economics were of a similar view stating: “Overall, we expect two more 25bp interest rate cuts over the rest of the year, to 10.00%. The easing cycle is likely to be a bit more stop-start next year as it takes time for inflation to fall to the central bank's 2-4% target. Our end-2025 forecast of 8.50% is above consensus expectations,” said Liam Peach, Senior Emerging Markets Economist.
USD/MXN continues to trade within its rising channel as it extends the uptrending bias of recent months. Overall, it is in a short, medium and long-term uptrend. Given the theory that “the trend is your friend”, it’s more likely than not to continue higher.
USD/MXN Daily Chart
Thursday’s close above 19.63 (September 25 high) provided more bullish certainty of the pair’s near-term upside bias after it recently bottomed out at the base of the rising channel, towards a target at 20.15, the high of the year.
A further break above 19.75 (the September 26 high) would create a higher high and provide yet more proof of an extension of the uptrend.
The AUD/USD pair oscillates in a narrow trading band below the 0.6900 mark through the first half of the European session on Friday and remains close to its highest level since February 2023 touched earlier this week.
The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. That said, bets for another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood caps the safe-haven buck and lends some support to the risk-sensitive Aussie.
The global risk sentiment gets an additional boost after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the seven-day repo rate to 1.5% from 1.7% and lowered the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50 bps. This comes on top of a slew of stimulus measures announced this week, which continues to fuel the risk-on rally across the global equity markets and underpins the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) amid the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance.
In fact, the Australian central bank reiterated on Tuesday that policy will need to be restrictive until confidence returns that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. Adding to this, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that the recent data has not significantly influenced the policy outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of over a two-week-old rally.
Physical gold demand contracted in key Asian hubs this week, as a surge in prices to record highs deterred buyers and encouraged some to cash in on their holdings.
"Prices are high, so there are fewer buyers and more sellers. However, we do see some buyers coming in, as many investors are worried that gold prices will continue to rise," said Brian Lan at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central.
"Most clients are selling to take profits, and some are liquidating jewellery they no longer wear for cash."
Local prices in top consumers China and India were at all-time highs, tracking a record-breaking rally in international spot gold prices, which is up more than 29% so far this year.
"Demand has been extremely low as consumers are unable to digest the rapid price increase," said Amit Modak, chief executive of PN Gadgil and Sons, a jeweller based in the western Indian city of Pune.
Indian dealers offered a discount of up to US$19 (RM79) an ounce over official domestic prices this week, inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies, up from last week's discount of US$17.
The sharp rally in prices also neutralised the impact of a reduction in import duties on gold to 6% from 15%.
"Jewellers are reporting a drastic reduction in foot traffic across the country. The price rise has suddenly pushed retail consumers, who were active after the duty cut, into a waiting mode," said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank.
In China, discounts of US$16-US$7 on global spot prices were offered, compared with last week's US$12-US$14 discount.
Physical off-take remains deeply lacklustre which suggests we have a two speed market, said independent analyst Ross Norman, adding that China's stimulus package reflects deep concerns about its ailing economy.
China refrained from gold imports from Switzerland for the first time since January 2021, and net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 76% to their lowest level in more than two years in August.
In the euro area, focus today is on the September inflation data from Spain, France, and Belgium, which will give clues on the euro area data on Tuesday next week. We expect euro area HICP inflation to decline significantly to 1.8% y/y in September from 2.2% driven by both base effects on energy inflation and declining monthly energy prices. Excluding energy inflation and food, we expect core inflation remained at 2.8% y/y (0.20% m/m s.a.) due to sticky services inflation. The dip in headline inflation below 2% is expected to be temporary due to base effects and we expect inflation to rise above 2% again in November and December.
In Germany, we focus also on data on unemployment as the German labour market has weakened lately in contrast to other euro-area countries.
From the US, headline and core PCE inflation are released today, where markets see prints at +2.3% y/y and +2.7% y/y, respectively.
Although economic activity in Norway has been relatively weak over the past year, there has been only a moderate rise in unemployment. We expect that the unemployment rate increased marginally to 2.1% (seasonally adjusted) in September. Higher real wage growth and a period without rate hikes have improved the purchasing power of households, and private consumption picked up in the summer months. However, we expect that the retail trade was unchanged in August.
We are yet to see results from the Japanese ruling LDP leadership election, which will be interesting for markets due to the recent hawkish turn of the BoJ looking highly politically influenced. Abenomics loyalists preferring a slow normalisation of monetary policies as well as hawks are on the ticket in an election that will be heavily influenced by behind-the-scenes arm wrestling among party heavyweights.
Oil prices tumbled about 2.5% on the news that Saudi Arabia has allegedly abandoned its (unofficial) price target of 100 USD/bbl. and instead opt to boost production to regain market shares. Note that we have no official communication yet, but the existing OPEC+ production cuts are slated to expire on 1 December, and this will be a shift from the trend since 2022 where focus has been on cutting, rather than increasing, oil production.
The SNB cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% as we expected. Markets were close to evenly split between 25bp and 50bp, which resulted in a slight move lower in EUR/CHF upon announcement, though dovish communication caused the cross to erase losses. See more below.
In China, we got more stimulus signals with both verbal communication from the Politburo on the need for policy action to turn the economy as well as specific details on handouts and spending-vouchers, capital injection into state banks, and support for the property market. The combined package from the latest days highlights the strongest focus on ending the crisis we have seen since 2021 in our view. Chinese stocks, metal prices and the CNY continued to rally during the day.
Tokyo CPI saw core inflation at +0.19% m/m adjusted for seasonality, which is well in line with the BoJ’s target of 2% annual inflation. The so-called ‘core core’ figure, which excludes food and energy, printed at just at 0.06% m/m seasonally adjusted however, indicating somewhat softer price pressure providing downside risk for inflation, and the market reaction was initially for a slightly weaker yen. Broadly, however, the BoJ will be satisfied with the latest print, and it will likely not change the decision in October, where we expect a hold.
Equities: What a day in global equities yesterday, marked by significant global increases and an intriguing sector rotation. On one hand, China is stimulating its economy; on the other, Saudi Arabia is potentially abandoning its oil price target to regain market share. In Europe yesterday, the energy sector was down more than 3%, while the consumer discretionary sector rose by more than 5%, driven by car producers and, notably, heavyweight luxury brands. This serves as a poignant reminder for all of us to check whether our judgments are correct and for the right reasons. It’s easy to deceive oneself these days. In the US yesterday, the indices were as follows: Dow +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%, and Russell 2000 +0.6%. Most Asian markets are continuing to rise this morning, once again led by significant gains in Chinese stock markets – it looks like we are on track for best week for Chinese stocks since 2008(!).
FI: There was modest movement in European government bond yields yesterday apart from the continued pressure on France, but neither the Bund ASW-spread nor the BTPS-Bund spread has widened as we saw back in June. Hence, we are not seeing the same kind of risk-off movement as we saw back in June when President Macron called a snap election. Revision of US economic data as well as lower-than-expected jobless claims sent US bond yields higher with 2Y Treasuries rising almost 10bp yesterday.
FX: EUR/USD has spent most of the last two weeks within the 1.11-1.12 interval, though with a couple of unsuccessful attempts to break out of the range. USD/JPY tried to establish above 145 but was rejected twice yesterday. The British pound continues to shine on the back of relatively solid data and tight monetary policy stance – yesterday GBP/USD made a new 2.5year high at 1.3430. The Swiss franc strengthened after the SNB cut 25bp and EUR/CHF is back trading in the mid-0.94s. EUR/NOK held on to previous gains just below 11.80, while EUR/SEK was rangebound around 11.30. USD/CNY has fallen below 7.02 in recent days on the stronger stimulus signals and likely new capital inflows to the stock market. Our medium-term view is still that the cross will resume higher as we remain bullish on the USD. But there is rising downside risk to our 7.25 12M forecast. EUR/CNY has fallen to around 7.84, the middle of the 7.70-7.95 range it has traded in for a long time now. We could see more downside in the medium term as it is expected to also get support from a lower EUR/USD. The idiosyncratic strengthening of the CNY has led to a bit of decoupling in the normal high correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CNY, but we expect it to resume when the dust settles from the recent days action.
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