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The dollar continues to firm and emerging currencies stay largely offered as the spectre of another possible Trump term of tariffs hangs over global FX markets. This may be hard to shake off given such a tight election. Today, the highlight is the ECB decision where we see upside risks to the euro.
Looking across global FX markets, one could be forgiven for thinking that the market is starting to position for a Donald Trump win. Most emerging currencies are under pressure. And you can see why. In an entertaining interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Trump went large on using tariffs should he make it back into the White House. As columnists have said, no one should be surprised if this happens. The most immediate casualty from that interview was the Mexican peso. When it comes to nearshoring, Donald Trump wants US corporates to shorten supply chains not just into Mexico, but into the US itself. He intends to use tariffs to ensure that will be the case. In addition, when it comes to broader tariffs – particularly on the European auto industry – Trump said that tariffs of 10% would not be enough.
With the election less than three weeks away, it looks like investors will be reluctant to position against such threats even though the election outcome remains very uncertain. If you haven't seen it already, please have a look at our market scenario analysis for the US election.
For the US today, the highlight will be the September US retail sales data and weekly jobless claims. Retail sales are expected to remain reasonable, with the control group at 0.3% MoM. Weekly initial claims are expected to remain high at 258,000, but uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Helene and the port strike will prevent the market from overreacting to this data.
Given the large weighting of the euro in the DXY, the DXY could dip back to 103.00/103.20 if we are right with our ECB/euro analysis today, but we suspect the dollar finds decent support on any dips now.
The market is pricing a 25bp ECB rate cut today with a 97% probability. We doubt the ECB will disappoint those expectations, but we see upside risks to the short end of the EUR rates curve today. This is because the market now virtually prices a 25bp rate cut at each of the next six meetings and we do not believe the ECB is ready to capitulate and support faster easing (some 50bp cuts) towards the neutral rate near 2.00/2.25% for the deposit rate.
If we're right, EUR/USD could be due a corrective bounce to the 1.0900/0920 area, although such gains may prove temporary. Perhaps a cleaner story for euro strength today will be EUR/CHF. Here we feel EUR/CHF has very much been dragged around by short-dated EUR rates this year and the view that the Swiss National Bank has a floor for the policy rate at 0.50%. Higher short-dated EUR rates today could drag EUR/CHF possibly up to the 0.9480/9500 area.
Thursday seems to be the highlight of the week. On top of global events today, we also have a Central Bank of Turkey meeting and important speakers in Hungary. First thing this morning there is a local conference in Budapest where the finance minister, who according to newspaper rumours is expected to become the next central bank governor, the minister for economy and the deputy governor of the National Bank of Hungary are all expected to speak. With EUR/HUF levels above 400, we believe the speakers will have more attention than usual and we are likely to hear hawkish news from central bankers that could help the HUF get back on track.
Later today we will see the Central Bank of Turkey decision. In line with expectations, we expect the rate to remain unchanged at 50%. September inflation numbers surprised to the upside and the market is expecting an additional dose of hawkishness. Market expectations of a first cut are shifting from October/November to December/January, which is showing up in the forward pricing. However, the spot TRY market remains on the same trajectory, which is the main reason we prefer spot over forwards at the moment, collecting high carry. Thus, reassurance from the Central Bank of Turkey should only extend the window where TRY remains the currency of choice for markets, while TURKGBs rather remain on the sidelines, waiting for the first CBT rate cut.
The fact that Chinese stimulus measures have yet to deliver a material re-rating in China's growth prospects is evidenced by the ongoing weakness in Chile's peso. This continues to trade towards the weak side of a four-month trading range. In focus much later today will be the central bank's policy decision. Economists are unanimous in expecting a 25bp cut to 5.25%. As discussed in this month's FX Talking, the real rate protection for the peso is starting to look very lean. Equally, the peso suffered greatly under Trump between 2018-19.
We are fearful that the local central bank could be cutting rates too deeply and the peso starts to take the strain again – especially with the central bank having failed to rebuild FX reserves after a massive intervention campaign in 2022. Pressure is building for USD/CLP to push decisively through 950.
A Bitcoin rally is grabbing the spotlight in part because some investors view the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
The digital asset is up about 13 per cent in the past seven days, well ahead of a global stock gauge and gold. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller cited crypto as among the indicators that markets are pricing in a win for the former president.
Crypto’s emergence as an election issue “is driving a lot of attention to Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class, and that attention is being translated into sentiment, and sentiment – as we know – leads to flows,” Crucible Capital General Partner Meltem Demirors said on Bloomberg Television.
Trump has vowed to make the United States the crypto capital of the world as he duels for votes in a tight race against Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. His embrace of the sector led to Bitcoin’s classification as a so-called Trump trade – one of a series of wagers predicated on his return to the White House.
In a Bloomberg Television interview on Oct 16, Mr Druckenmiller said the market during the past 12 days seemed “very convinced” of a Trump win. “You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto,” he said.
Net inflows into a group of a dozen US Bitcoin ETFs have topped US$1.6 billion (S$2.1 billion) since Oct 11 inclusive. The token was little changed at about US$67,260 as of 12.58pm on Oct 17 in Singapore, compared with March’s record of US$73,798.
The Bitcoin advance came alongside shifts in prediction markets, controversial platforms of disputed informational value where people can bet on election outcomes. Trump’s odds on the Polymarket platform have jumped to 58 per cent, while Harris has dropped to 41 per cent. On PredictIt, Trump’s chances are at 54 per cent, compared with 49 per cent for Harris.
While prediction markets have moved in Trump’s favour, the spread in most polls is well within the margin of error with less than three weeks to Election Day. Harris leads Trump by about 1.6 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. Trump is ahead by less than one percentage point in the equivalent measure for battleground states.
Harris has adopted a nuanced position on crypto, pledging to support a regulatory framework for digital assets as well as industry growth under appropriate safeguards. Her position spurred a bout of optimism among crypto traders as it contrasts with a crackdown under the Biden administration.
Trump’s embrace of the sector is an about-face as he once dubbed it a scam. Digital-asset firms have become influential players in the election through big donations to political action committees in pursuit of friendlier rules.
The British pound fell below the 1.30 level against the dollar after weak inflation data across indicators. This sent the pound to a two-month low on speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates further in the coming months.
The consumer price index changed little in September, slowing to its slowest pace since April 2021 at 1.7% year-on-year from 2.2% previously and 1.9% expected. Price growth was below the Bank of England’s 2% target, allowing for an acceleration of policy easing to stimulate the economy. The core consumer price index last month was 3.2% higher than a year earlier, down from 3.6% in August. And it has been the lowest since September 2021.
Another bearish factor for the pound is the acceleration of the decline in producer prices. The Input Producer Price Index lost 1% over the month after five months of continuous decline of 2.5% and 2.3% over the past year. The output PPI lost 0.5% in September, after 0.4% previously, bringing the annual trend back into negative territory at -0.7%. In both cases, the figures were well below average expectations.
Only house prices managed to beat expectations, accelerating from 1.8% y/y to 2.8% y/y in August instead of the expected 2.5%. Still, this acceleration was at least partly because of the low base that lasted until last December.
GBPUSD downplayed the news classically, with an impressive sell-off of 0.7% within an hour of the data release. The pound briefly dipped below 1.30, a key round level, where it found buyers. Sterling also predictably rebounded from the previous day’s upbeat employment data but failed to convert the rebound into gains.
GBPUSD met strong technical resistance at 1.3110, where the 50-day moving average and the first correction retracement (of decline from 26 September to 10 October) are centred. The pair also fell below the area of the local lows from 11 September, which gives the sellers the upper hand.
A potentially important downside target is the 1.2800 area, near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level from the initial decline and the 200-day moving average.
The ECB meets. Final September Eurozone consumer price data should confirm that inflation has fallen almost nine percentage points from its peak, and a whole percentage point this year. Cutting rates is simply an act of chasing inflation lower and keeping real rates stable, UBS’ economist Paul Donoban notes.
“ECB meetings mean ECB President Lagarde press conferences (although Lagarde has been uncharacteristically quiet recently). There is enough uncertainty about the economic outlook to raise questions about the pace of easing, forcing economists to listen to Lagarde’s remarks.”
“Japanese export data in September were unexpectedly weak. This is not necessarily a reflection of weaker global consumer demand given patterns of spending are shifting toward having fun (having fun = events that can be posted on Instagram). US September retail sales data mainly cover the boring parts of spending but there are some fun elements. The advice never to short the hedonism of US consumers holds good.”
“US industrial and manufacturing output data are due, along with the Philly Fed manufacturing sentiment poll. Manufacturing output (on the official data) has risen slightly this year. Sentiment (ISM, Philly Fed) has pointed to a near continuous contraction for the past two years. It is enough to make one question whether sentiment lives in the real world.”
U.S. pipeline operator Kinder Morgan has revised down its earnings guidance for this year amid a decline in oil prices and oil product volumes.
The company reported late on Wednesday adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25 for the third quarter, flat compared to the third quarter of 2023, and slightly missing the average expectation of $0.27 EPS, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
Citing lower-than-budgeted commodity prices and start-up delays on its renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities, Kinder Morgan revised down its profit expectations for the full-year of 2024.
During the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. benchmark oil price, WTI Crude, averaged 8.1% below the price in the same period of 2023, as concerns about global oil demand weighed down on international oil prices between July and September.
Due to lower-than-budgeted oil prices and start-up delays on RNG facilities, the pipeline giant now expects to be below budget on adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by about 2%. Full-year adjusted EPS would be some 4% lower than initially expected, although both adjusted core earnings and earnings per share are set to increase compared to 2023.
In the products pipeline segment, refined products volumes were up 1% and crude and condensate volumes were down 4% in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of 2023, Kinder Morgan’s president Thomas Martin said on the earnings call.
For the full year 2024, the company expects refined products volumes to be slightly below the plan to 2% growth over 2023, Martin added.
Kinder Morgan noted huge opportunities in the natural gas business amid growing U.S. demand for electricity.
“Discussions around opportunities related to significant new natural gas demand for electric generation associated with coal conversions at power plants, artificial intelligence operations, cryptocurrency mining, data centers, and industrial re-shoring also continued during the quarter, and we now see an opportunity set well in excess of 5 Bcf/d in that area,” CEO Kim Dang said.
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