Crude oil flows from Kurdistan could return to the market next year, after the Kurdistan regional government and the central Iraqi government in Baghdad agreed a new production sharing agreement that satisfies both sides.

“Previously, the KRG signed several agreements with the federal government regarding oil exports. However, the Iraqi budget law set oil extraction and transportation costs at $6 per barrel, which became a major obstacle to oil exports,” the acting minister of natural resources for the Kurdistan semi-autonomous region told local media publication Kurdistan 24.

Following the negotiations, the extraction and transportation costs were revised up to $20.6 per barrel, of which $16 per barrel would go to companies active in Kurdistan in the first phase of the new agreement, Kamal Mohammad Salih told the publication.

Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil have been suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central government in Baghdad and Turkey over who had the power to authorize these deliveries.

The impasse followed an International Chamber of Commerce ruling from March 2023. The ICC ruled in favor of Iraq, which had argued that Turkey should not allow Kurdish oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and the Turkish port of Ceyhan without approval from the federal government of Iraq.

The original dispute then morphed into the long-running debate between Erbil and Baghdad about how to divide the oil profits between the central Iraqi government and the government of the semi-autonomous oil-rich region.

The latest report out of Kurdistan suggests this may have finally been concluded with a mutually beneficial agreement that features the stipulation for an independent audit the oil extraction and transportation costs for Kurdish oil. “The firm will be given 60 days to determine the actual costs following the budget law amendment,” Salih explained.

Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia. A solid chunk of its total comes from the fields in the northern Kurdistan region.

Source: OILPRICE

The USD/CAD pair holds ground after two days of losses, trading around 1.3970 during the European hours on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis indicates that the pair is trending upwards within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish bias.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, confirming continued bullish momentum. Additionally, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned above the 14-day EMA, indicating persistent strength in short-term price momentum.

On the upside, the USD/CAD pair faces an immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3979 level. If the pair breaks above this level, it may move toward the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 1.4130 level. A breakout above this channel could reinforce the bullish bias and drive the pair toward the next key resistance level of 1.4173, last seen in May 2020.

Regarding support, the USD/CAD pair could test the immediate 14-day EMA at the 1.3957 level. A break below this level could weaken the bullish bias, putting downward pressure on the pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel at the 1.3920 level.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart

Canadian Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

Source: FXSTREET

Numerous major U.S. corporations addressed tariffs at recent investor events and on conference calls, including some after the Nov. 5 election, when Trump edged out sitting Vice President Kamala Hart.

Walmart, the nation's largest retailer, suggested on Tuesday after reporting results that prices could increase if tariffs rise.

"We're concerned that significantly increased tariffs could lead to increased costs for our customers at a time when they are still feeling the remnants of inflation," a Walmart spokesperson said.

Trump has vowed to make tariffs, which are a fraction of U.S. tax collections, central to his economic agenda. Executives have been increasingly fielding questions on the subject, with many noting ongoing efforts to continue to diversify their supply chains.

Since the beginning of September, executives from nearly 200 companies in the S&P 1500 Composite index discussed tariffs on earnings calls or at investor conferences, nearly doubling the same period in the run-up to the 2020 election, and far more than the 23 mentions in 2023, according to LSEG data.

"Roughly 40% of our cost of goods sold are sourced outside of the U.S., and that includes both direct imports and national brands through our vendor partners," Lowe's CFO Brandon Sink said on Tuesday. "And as we look at the potential impacts (of tariffs), it certainly would add to product costs."

Trump has floated the idea of 60% tariffs on China, the world's largest exporter, and universal tariffs of 10% or more, which he says is necessary to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit.

Oxford Economics estimated a 60% China tariff could boost U.S. inflation by 0.7 percentage points, and across-the-board tariffs would boost inflation by 0.3 points. Oxford believes any tariffs would be gradually introduced, but some analysts are worried about a shock effect.

"Trump 47 won't be a mere replay of Trump 45," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, noting that the president-elect's proposals now were "far more expansive."

The United States imports billions of dollars worth of goods from China annually. This chart illustrates the distribution of these imports by sector for the year 2023.

POSSIBLE SECTOR EFFECTS

The sectors that account for the most imports to the United States include electronic products, transportation equipment, chemicals and minerals, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Tariffs could raise prices on clothing, toys, furniture, appliances, footwear, and travel goods, particularly items where China is a major supplier, according to the National Retail Federation, a U.S. trade group of which Walmart's U.S. head is the chair.

"It is certainly one of the quickest things that could happen, because it could kind of happen with the stroke of a pen," Stanley Black & Decker CFO Patrick Hallinan said at a Robert W. Baird investor conference last week. He said current tariffs are costing it about $100 million a year, which could double under Trump's proposals.

To be sure, companies started to shift production away from China during Trump's first term, and continued to do so following legislation passed during Joe Biden's term designed to boost U.S. manufacturing.

U.S. goods imports from China peaked at $538.5 billion in 2018, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, and were $433.3 billion over the 12 months ended in September.

Businesses may also be better prepared to deal with shifts following the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous labor strikes and disruptions to key waterways like the Panama and Suez canals, executives said.

"We've had so many disruptions and challenges that have forced us to make adaptions. We're pretty well versed in managing through this," Tapestry CFO Scott Roe said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Source: AP

Source: Euronews