India’s new monetary policy committee may lay the groundwork for an interest rate cut on Wednesday as a wave of global easing kicks off and growth in the world’s fastest-expanding major economy moderates.

While most of the 35 economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the Reserve Bank of India’s six-member MPC to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5%, several predict a switch to a "neutral" stance for the first time since June 2019 from its current hawkish view.

The meeting is the first under a new policy committee following the appointment last week of three external members, well-known economists with academic and financial backgrounds.

Governor Shaktikanta Das has so far dismissed calls for rate cuts, concerned that high food prices will prevent inflation from staying at the 4% target level on a sustainable basis. However, with the US Federal Reserve now pivoting and other central banks following with rate cuts, pressure is building on the RBI to do the same, especially after good rainfall and predictions of a bumper harvest.

A change in the RBI’s policy stance language would pave the way for a quarter-point rate cut in December, according to economists at HSBC plc.

“We believe the RBI doesn’t gain from waiting any longer,” Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi Chaudhary wrote in a note. They expect another quarter-point reduction at the February meeting, taking the repurchase rate to 6%.

New MPC makes its debut

Three new external members joined the MPC, although only one of them — Saugata Bhattacharya, a former chief economist at Axis Bank Ltd — has publicly voiced his views on inflation and growth recently, advocating for the RBI to cut rates.

However, economists said it’s unlikely the new members will vote against the three other RBI officials on the MPC so early on. 

They “may agree with RBI’s house view for some time,” said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Bank of America Corp. “Still, incoming near-term data is much more mixed, and growth risks appear tilted to the downside,” he said, predicting a shift in policy stance. 

In the past two MPC meetings, external members Ashima Goyal and Jayanth Varma voted for rate cuts, stating and arguing that the RBI’s insistence on keeping rates high was damaging growth.

Inflation rhetoric may be toned down

The RBI will likely stick to its fiscal year growth and inflation forecasts of 7.2% and 4.5%, respectively, although there’s a chance the quarterly CPI forecasts could be adjusted, particularly for the July-September period, said Kaushik Das, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG. 

The central bank had projected 4.4% inflation for the period, but the actual reading could turn out to be lower, in the range of 4-4.1%, he said. 

India had its best monsoon rains, which irrigate about half of the country’s farmland, since 2020, setting the stage for a bumper harvest of crops such as rice and boosting economic prospects for rural areas.

Since the last rate decision, official data showed economic growth moderated to 6.7% in the April-June quarter, below the central bank’s projection of 7.1%, while signs are growing of a softening in urban consumption.

“The Indian economy is showing few incipient signs of fatigue in growth,” wrote Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist of Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd in a note on Monday. “The upcoming festive and post-festive periods will be important to evaluate whether these signs turn to red flags or just a blip,” she wrote. 

Several economists have started moderating their growth projections for India — for example, Kotak’s Bhardwaj now expects 6.7% expansion in the year through March 2025, down from 6.9% earlier.

Bond markets could rally

Any signs of dovishness from the central bank, such as a tweak in the policy stance language, could propel a bond rally. Traders are also watching any possible changes that could indicate easier liquidity conditions in the banking system. Yields have eased around 40 basis points from the year’s peak of 7.25% on hopes of RBI easing.

“The next move from the RBI will be a rate cut,” said Nathan Sribalasundaram, a rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc in Singapore. “Favourable demand-supply, banks’ investment requirements and foreign investor demand will push yields lower.”

Source: The edge markets

The Thai government’s attempts to influence the appointment of a new central bank chairman could lead to “disastrous consequences” for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, according to a former Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor.

Tarisa Watanagase, the nation’s first female central bank governor, said the push to appoint a government nominee as the BOT chairman will affect the independence of the monetary authority.

Her comments come as local media reported that a panel of retired bureaucrats and regulators will meet on Tuesday to select the chairman and two board members from a roster put forward by the Finance Ministry and the central bank. Both have been at loggerheads over monetary and fiscal policies for almost a year.

“In the past, the selection committees for important positions of the Bank of Thailand have performed their duties independently and have not accepted interference,” Tarisa wrote in an open letter published Monday. “No one wants to be recorded in history as people responsible for bringing the Thai economy to the first step of disaster.”

The selection panel should ensure the BOT new chairman and board members can “perform their duties appropriately” and are acceptable to society, said Tarisa who was appointed governor by an interim government following the 2006 military coup.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration is backing Kittiratt Na-Ranong, a critic of the central bank’s hawkish monetary policy and a loyalist of the ruling party, for the chairman’s job. BOT hasn’t disclosed its nominees for the post.

While the BOT chairman doesn’t have powers to dictate monetary policy, the official can evaluate the central bank governor’s performance. The chairman also has a say in which outside experts join the seven-member rate panel headed by Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, who is due to retire in September next year.

Sethaput, who was appointed by a military-backed government in 2020, has ignored calls for a rate cut from the Pheu Thai-led coalition government for almost a year. While former leader Srettha Thavisin openly called for easing borrowing costs, Paetongtarn has left it to her cabinet colleagues to keep up the pressure on BOT.

The Finance Ministry is pushing for a higher inflation target for next year to create room for BOT to cut the interest rate from a decade-high 2.5%. Sethaput has argued that the current settings are neutral for Thailand’s economic and financial conditions and called for central bank decisions to be free from interference.

Tarisa said government interference can damage the Thai economy by focusing on policies stimulating the economy in the short term. A decision to hand out 10,000 baht each to most adults is already set to create a huge financial burden which can lead to credit rating downgrades, she said.

Source: The edge markets

The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery to around 1.0985 on Tuesday during the early European trading hours. The major pair edges higher amid the modest weakening in the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside for EUR/USD might be limited as traders expect a smaller interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November.

French Central Bank Chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Tuesday that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut interest rates next week as economic growth is weak and this raises the risk that inflation will undershoot its 2% target. The comments support market pricing for another 150 bp of ECB rate cuts over the next twelve months.

ECB Isabel Schnabel is set to speak later on Tuesday, and Industrial Production in Germany will be released. The dovish remarks from ECB policymakers or any sign of weakness in Europe's largest economy could drag the Euro (EUR) lower against the Greenback. 

On the USD’s front, the encouraging US jobs data on Friday raised the expectation that the Fed will cut 25 basis points (bps) at the central bank's November meeting. This, in turn, might lift the US Dollar (USD) broadly and might cap the upside for EUR/USD. The odds of a Fed rate cut of 25 bps stand at an 85% chance, up from 31.1% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Source: FXSTREET

Where We Stand – 

Look Ahead –

GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains beyond 1.3100 mark

The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a five-day losing streak to a nearly four-week low, around the 1.3560 area touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, struggle to build on the uptick beyond the 1.3100 mark, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

The US Dollar (USD) remains depressed below a seven-week high touched on Friday and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, reduced bets for another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), amid signs of a still resilient US labor market, might hold back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, a softer risk tone should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and cap the upside for the currency pair. 

GBP/USD finds fresh lows as Greenback climbs

GBP/USD sunk another one-quarter of one percent on Monday, easing into a fresh four-week low and closing below the 1.3100 handle for the first time since mid-September. Investors rate cut hopes are buckling under the weight of a firmer-than-expected US labor market, and geopolitical tensions have kept trader risk appetite pinned.

Investor appetite took a leg down to kick off the fresh trading week as market hopes for further outsized rate cuts continue to dwindle. Rate markets now overwhelmingly expect the Fed’s next rate move on November 7 will be a demure quarter-point cut, down from the heady 50 bps that rate markets expected just after the Fed’s opening volley of a 50 bps double cut in September. Fedspeak has steadily telegraphed to markets that a further deterioration in the US economy, and specifically the US labor market, will be the thing that opens the door to further extreme moves on rates. 

Source: FXSTREET

US bonds tumbled on Monday, deepening a rout triggered by strong labor-market data that caused traders to sharply ratchet back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

The declines pushed key yields above 4%, levels last seen in August, as investors abandoned their bullish bets on Treasuries. For the first time since Aug. 1, money markets imply fewer than 50 basis points of rate reductions through the end of the year. Traders now see just an 80% chance the Fed cut rates by even 25 basis points in November.

“The discussion is shifting into whether there’s going to be a cut at all,” said Jan Nevruzi, an interest-rate strategist at TD Securities. “Things are not looking as bad from an economic perspective, and that leads you to reprice the Fed.” TD continues to expect a quarter-point cut in November.

The 10-year yield rose as much as six basis points to 4.03%, while the two-year yield jumped as much as up ten basis points to 4.02%. The underperformance in shorter-dated Treasuries saw a key part of the yield curve briefly re-invert. Historically, bond yield curves slope upward with longer notes paying higher yields, a norm that was disrupted for almost two years as the Fed hiked rates aggressively.

The moves reflect a revival of expectations in the bond market that the Fed will pull off a “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Fed has little room to cut interest rates. Friday’s report revived a set of worries around overheating, spoiling a five-month run of gains in Treasuries.

“We’ve expected higher yields, but anticipated a somewhat gradual adjustment,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including George Cole wrote in a note. “The extent of strength in the September jobs report may have accelerated that process, with renewed debate on the extent of policy restriction, and, in turn, the likely depth of Fed cuts.”

Monday’s open interest data, which tracks positioning in the futures market, fell sharply across multiple contracts linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, signaling capitulation of long positions. Meanwhile in the options market, there were a bunch of new hawkish hedges targeting just one more quarter-point rate cut for this year.

Economists at Citigroup in a report Monday said they expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point in November, joining other Wall Street banks in abandoning forecasts for a half-point cut in the wake of strong September employment data released Friday.

“The bar for no rate cut in November is high, as one month of labor market data has not convincingly reduced the downside risks that have been growing for many months and across many datasets that led officials to cut 50bp in September,” Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. “We think labor market weakness will reemerge in the coming months and an overall still-slowing trend of inflation will have Fed officials cutting rates by 50 basis points in December.”

Traders are now looking ahead to a series of speeches from Fed policymakers for further clues on the path for rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, as well as his Atlanta and St. Louis counterparts, Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem, along with Fed Board member Michelle Bowman speak at different events on Monday.

The market is also awaiting US inflation data later this week. The consumer price index is expected to rise 0.1% in September, its smallest gain in three months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said projections issued by officials, alongside their September rate decision, point toward quarter-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year.

“It doesn’t need a recession to get inflation to tolerable levels, so the Fed is easing policy without waiting for genuine economic weakness,” said Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard. “By now, everyone should have realized the Fed is cutting rates preemptively.”

Source: The edge markets