EUR/USD posts a fresh weekly high near 1.0580 in the European session on Friday ahead of the flash Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November, which will be published at 10:00 GMT. The inflation report is expected to show that the annual headline and core HICP – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – accelerated to 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively.

Investors will pay close attention to the inflation report to get fresh cues about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) likely interest rate cut size in the December meeting. The ECB has already reduced its Deposit Facility Rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.25% this year.

Traders expect the ECB to cut its key borrowing rates at least by 25 bps in the December meeting. For 2025, traders see the ECB cutting interest rates in every meeting through June, pushing the Rate on Deposit Facility lower to 1.75% by the year-end, according to Reuters.

Market speculation for the ECB to cut interest rates by a larger-than-usual size of 50 bps is upbeat as officials are worried about growing economic risks. The two largest economies of the Eurozone, Germany and France, are going through a rough phase due to political uncertainty, a scenario that slows down government spending activities.

Also, weak German Retail Sales data for October points to economic stagnation. Month-on-month Retail Sales contracted by 1.5% after rising 1.2% in September. Economists expected the Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, to decline at a slower pace of 0.3%. On year, the consumer spending measure rose by 1%, slower than estimates of 3.2% and the prior release of 3.8%.

ECB Governing Council member and Governor of Bank of France François Villeroy de Galhau kept the option of an outsize interest rate cut on the table in his speech on Thursday. “Seen from today, there is every reason to cut on December 12. Optionality should remain open on the size of the cut, depending on incoming data, economic projections, and our risk assessment,” Villeroy said.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD advances as US Dollar corrects further

EUR/USD gains as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside in a holiday-truncated week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its correction below 106.00 on Friday. The USD Index started correcting on Monday after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent, a veteran hedge-fund manager, for the role of Treasury Secretary.

Financial markets anticipated that Bessent would enact Trump’s economic agenda without disrupting external relations and fiscal discipline. “The objective of enacting tariffs will be “layered in gradually and the budget deficit will be reduced to 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by slashing spending, a move that won’t result in higher inflation than feared,” Bessent said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) last weekend.

On the monetary policy front, market experts expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to be cautious about interest rate cuts as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, accelerated in October. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps to the 4.25%-4.50% range in the December meeting is 66%, while the rest supports leaving them unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In Friday’s session, the US Dollar is expected to remain sideways as US markets will open for limited hours on account of Thanksgiving holidays. For the next week, investors should brace for high volatility as a slew of employment and economic data will be published.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD rises to near 1.0600

EUR/USD extends its upside to near 1.0580 on Friday. The recovery in the major currency pair appears to be a mean-reversion move, which could extend to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0600. Still, the broader outlook would remain bearish as all short-to-long-term day EMAs are declining, pointing to a downside trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded after conditions turned oversold and climbed above 40.00, suggesting that the bearish momentum has faded. However, the bearish trend has not been extinguished.

Looking down, the November 22 low of 1.0330 will be a key support for Euro bulls. On the flip side, the 50-day EMA near 1.0747 will be the key barrier.

Source: FXSTREET

Markets

US markets were closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, leaving European markets looking for their own dynamics. National inflation data from Germany (HICP -0.7% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y; unchanged October) and Spain (0% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y from 1.8%, core 2.4% from 2.5%) overall printed on the softer side of expectations, suggesting (modest) downside risks for today’s Flash EMU release. The decline of EMU yields to the incoming CPI data was initially modest/limited.

However, in afternoon trading, comments from Banque de France governor Villeroy clearly put other accents on the ECB’s strategy than board member Schnabel on Wednesday. The French governor indicated that the ECB needs full optionality in the current environment on the frequence and the size of rate cuts, including the December one. Inflation reaching the target sooner than expected also is a reason to bring rates to a neutral level and even a decline below neutral might be possible. Especially the latter assessment clearly diverged from Schnabel’s view. The combination of slightly softer than-expected CPI data and the Villeroy comments finally caused EMU yields to follow the path of least resistance, which currently obviously is still south.

German yields declined 3.8 bps (5-y) to 1.9 bps (30-y). Money markets see the trough in the EMU easing cycle next year near 1.75%. The Euro this time quite easily withstood the further decline in yields and closed only modestly lower at 1.0552 (from 1.0566). Growing tensions/uncertainty on the French budget didn’t impact the euro. The Eurostoxx 50 even added 0.54%.

US markets rejoin the action today. However with no US data scheduled for release, the focus in the US might be on the shopping malls rather than on Wall Street. Still, US yields this morning continue their recent corrective decline, ceding 3-4 bps across the curve. EMU November CPI data take center stage (headline expected at -0.2% M/M and 2.3% Y/Y from 2%, core expected 2.8% from 2.7%). 

Question is how much further markets will/can push expected easing next year, given what is already discounted (1.75% ECB depo rate in H2). For now, there probably is no trigger to row against the existing downtrend in EMU yields, but it might shift into a lower gear. On FX markets, the euro (EUR/USD) enjoys some relief as the correction in US yields and the dollar apparently still has some legs. DXY drops below the 106 handle (105.85). USD/JPY, also pressured by yen strength, is testing the 150 mark this morning. EUR/USD gains a few ticks (EUR/USD 1.0582), but the political/budgetary uncertainty in France probably will continue to prevent dynamic/sustained comeback.

News & Views

November Tokyo inflation numbers boost market odds that the Bank of Japan will conduct another rate hike at its December policy meeting. Prices in the capital region rose by 0.5% M/M on a headline level. That’s the third such increase in the past four months. In annual terms, CPI jumped from 1.8% to 2.6%, matching the YTD high. The BoJ’s preferred ex-fresh food gauge equally rose by 0.5% M/M to be up 2.2% Y/Y (from 1.8%). More details showed goods and services inflation increasing by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively in November. Only household goods (-0.5% M/M) and entertainment (-0.1% M/M) had a dampening impact on the monthly CPI-print. The Japanese yen rallied from USD/JPY 151.50 to 150 in response to the figures with money markets currently discounting a 15 bps increase in the BoJ’s target rate (currently 0.25%).

French finance minister Armand yesterday noon already hinted that it’s better to have a budget that is not exactly the one they want instead of having no budget at all. PM Barnier than later on the day stressed that they will do everything to bring the country’s budget deficit from this year’s 6% of GDP to about 5% next year. He also announced a first major concession for the far-right RN who threatens the government over the budget bill. A previously planned increase for an electricity tax will no longer be included in the budget. From February, electricity taxes will now decrease by 14% instead of by 9%. While obviously welcomed, RN-president Bardella already said that his party won’t stop there and that other red lines remain. The French left opposition still plans to table a motion of no-confidence as soon as next week..

Source: ACTIONFOREX

In focus today

In the euro area, we will get the full euro area inflation print for November, after the local prints yesterday. In the light of yesterday’s local prints, we expect euro area inflation to come in at 2.2%, a bit lower than the 2.3% indicated beforehand. German CPI inflation increased less than expected to 2.2% y/y (cons: 2.3% y/y) in November from 2.0% in October. Spanish inflation rose to 2.4% y/y in November from 1.8% y/y in October as expected. Core CPI inflation rose less than expected to 2.4% y/y (consensus: 2.6%) from 2.5% y/y in October.

In Sweden, we receive data for Q3 GDP. Yesterday’s NIER confidence data indicated an improvement in economic sentiment, hinting that the October decline in the NIER survey might have been an anomaly. The NIER release, along with production and consumption data, also indicates that the Q3 GDP figures might be more favorable than the GDP indicator suggested (-0.1% q/q, -0.1% y/y). A stronger GDP reading today for Q3 would be a bit of a paradox, as the weaker NIER survey and GDP indicator were contributing factors to the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 50bp earlier this month. Additionally, we receive October’s retail sales data. It is noteworthy that sentiment among households and in the retail trade sector continued to improve in yesterday’s NIER survey, which suggests that retail sales will recover from here.

Over the weekend we get Chinese PMIs for November. In the past two months we saw a decent increase in the official PMI manufacturing from NBS rising to 50.1 in October. We expect to see a flat reading reflecting somewhat better activity after the recent round of stimulus. We also look for a small rise in Caixin PMI manufacturing (Monday) coming from 50.3 in October.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, the Tokyo CPI excl. fresh foods came in higher than expected at 2.2% (consensus: 2.1%, prior: 1.8%). The print fuelled expectations for a potential 25bp rate hike in Japan in one of the upcoming meetings. USD/JPY dropped from around 150.3 before the meeting to 149.80 after the release. Since it has strengthened a bit and is now trading around 150. We expect Bank of Japan to deliver a 25bp hike at the December meeting.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, ECB’s Villeroy said that ECB should keep its options open for a bigger than 25bp rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, he added that the policy rate could be on a path where it ends below the neutral rate, such that monetary policy once again stimulates growth. We still see the most realistic case that ECB cut the interest rate by 25bp at the December meeting.

EU commissioner Von der Leyen presented a new EU commission. The new Commission leans centre-right and will prioritize competition, defence, and the green transition. However, as the Greens lack a commissioner, there is likely less emphasis on climate issues in favour of competitiveness and industrial policies. A notable change under the second term of President von der Leyen is the redistribution of responsibilities among commissioners, ensuring that basically no single commissioner has full autonomy. Hence, von der Leyen will gain much more influence this time and the picks of commissioners show this already as it was the first time no commissioner was ousted by Parliament.

Von der Leyen also presented that she is establishing a task force to implement the recommendations from the Draghi report, which highlights the focus on competitiveness. Although her statements were somewhat unclear, the substantial aspect is the formation of a team, including some individuals who assisted Draghi in drafting his confidential report. This team will support the Commission’s departments in ensuring the report’s recommendations are executed effectively.

Equities: Global equities were higher yesterday despite the guiding star of the US being out for celebrating Thanksgiving. With the US markets closed, it was a rather quiet session, but this did not deter Europe from posting gains of approximately 0.5%, led by cyclicals. Although macro factors are not the sole focus currently, we received a favourable combination of news, with inflation figures coming in even more benign than anticipated and the Ecofin data surprisingly strong. The US is back for only half a day today following yesterday’s celebrations, yet this has not prevented China from pushing markets higher, while the rest of Asia remains more subdued. It is important to consider the currency effect for Japan again this morning. Both European and US futures are trending upwards this morning.

FI: Yesterday, the OAT-Bund spread saw a 4bp tightening to 82bp following French PM Barnier’s concession to National Rally’s demands, which could allow the 2025 budget to be approved by parliament. EGB yields continued moving lower throughout Thursday, as markets added to ECB rate cut expectations for 2025 following a string of weaker-than-expected core inflation prints out from Germany, Spain and Belgium. The 5y5y EUR inflation swap rate dropped below 2% for the first time since August 2022, highlighting the non-negligible risk that inflation could settle below the target. US was closed for Thanksgiving.

FX: Apart from the politically induced sell-off to the BRL yesterday’s FX session was rather quiet and dominated by the US Thanksgiving holiday season. The USD was the general underperformer while the MXN, NOK and JPY all did well albeit gains were relatively limited.

US Dollar and Trade Implications

DXY H1 ChartUSD COT

RBNZ OCR Statement

Australia's Inflation Landscape

The chip makers around the world felt the relief of a rumour suggesting that the sales curb to China could be less severe than previously expected. But the news didn’t necessarily translated in a strong rally. ASML – Europe’s biggest chip equipment maker that predicted a 30% fall to its Chinese revenue next year – closed 0.22% lower yesterday, while Tokyo Electron – which was up by more than 6% yesterday – couldn’t extend gains at today’s session.

With US markets paused for the Thanksgiving break, France was at the heart of the attention yesterday. The political drama, there, only got worst as Michel Barnier gave concessions to Marine Le Pen – who only asked more of them. Barnier dropped plans to increase taxes on electricity, but Le Pen’s party also wants him to drop the plans to reduce drug reimbursement, help small and medium companies compete better and index pensions on inflation starting from January 1st. The demands are nice – and they have the merit to please the French voters who, as everyone else, are dealing with inflation and cost-of-living crisis – but Le Pen’s demands cost money. And the growing French deficit doesn’t allow the French government to spend that money, please or not. The country’s debt-to-GDP stands near 5.5% today, well above the EU’s 3% target. Pushing for spending the money that you don’t have doesn’t always bode well with investors – except if you’re named after the US.

Remember, Liz Truss wanted to offer the Brits significant tax cuts two years ago, and all she got was a mini financial crisis. This is what we sense from the market reaction to Le Pen’s threats that she would vote Barnier’s government down if he doesn’t give Le Pen what she wants. The French 10-year yield eased while CAC 40 was in a better mood. But the political uncertainties in France will certainly keep volatility high across French-denominated assets into the year end.

For the euro, we don’t yet see a major impact of French political shenanigans, but the French touch is not necessarily a positive one. The EURUSD swung between gains and losses yesterday, caught between mixed inflation data from Spain and Germany. Inflation in Spain ticked higher – from 1.8% to 2.4% in November, while price pressures in Germany came in softer-than-expected thanks to softer food prices. This divergence in the bloc’s largest economies left traders uncertain about the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next moves.

Dues this morning, the EZ aggregate inflation data is expected to print an uptick in price pressures. A softer-than-expected read will certainly keep the ECB doves in charge of the market and cap the euro appetite limited into the 1.06 psychological level, while a stronger-than-expected number should encourage the euro bulls to push for a further recovery. But in both cases, the EURUSD will remain in a bearish trend below 1.0672 – the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on September to November selloff.

Speaking of inflation, inflation in Tokyo came in stronger than expected in November, industrial production advanced 3%, almost the double of expectations but came in lower than expected, while retail sales grew sensibly softer than expected. But traders focuses on Tokyo inflation that backed the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would hike rates in the December meeting. As such, the rise of the hawkish BoJ expectations shortly pushed the USDJPY below the 150 mark. I believe that a sustainable move below this level is possible, if the BoJ goes ahead and hikes rates in its December 18-19 meeting.

In energy, there is hesitation about what to do at the current levels. The latest news suggests that OPEC+ will delay its decision time from Sunday to December 5th. It appears that the cartel members need more time to discuss about what to do about their plans to restore production. It is clear that extending production cuts deep into next year is the only option to prevent boosting the supply gut in global markets – and keep the downside in prices limited at a time of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

The US Dollar (USD) stays under selling pressure on Friday, with the USD Index dropping to its weakest level in over two weeks below 106.00. The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases and financial markets in the US will close early. Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) data from the Eurozone and third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Canada will be watched closely by investors.

Following the Thanksgiving Day holiday, US stock index futures gain traction early Friday and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield continues to push lower toward 4.2%, making it difficult for the USD to find demand.

US Dollar PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that the Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose by 2.6% on a yearly basis in November, up sharply from the 1.8% increase recorded in October. Other data revealed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 2.5% in October from 2.4% and the annual Industrial Production contracted by 2.6%. After posting small gains on Thursday, USD/JPY turned south early Friday and was last seen trading at its lowest level since late October near 150.00, losing about 1% on the day.

Following Thursday's indecisive action, EUR/USD benefits from the renewed USD weakness and rises toward 1.0600 in the European morning on Friday. The data from Germany showed on Thursday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.2% on a monthly basis in November's flash estimate, matching the market expectation.

GBP/USD gains traction in the European morning and trades in positive territory above 1.2700. The pair remains on track to snap an eight-week losing streak.

Canada's GDP is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 1% in the third quarter after growing 2.1% in the second quarter. Following the upsurge seen earlier in the week, USD/CAD closed the previous two days in negative territory. The pair extends its slide early Friday and trades below 1.4000.

Gold gathers bullish momentum amid retreating US T-bond yields and trades above $2,660 in the European morning on Friday, rising about 1% on the day. 

Inflation FAQs

What is inflation?

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange?

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

How does inflation influence the price of Gold?

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Source: FXSTREET