IPM Monthly Blog – Edition September 2024

Economic

Summary:

Our monthly insights into private markets.

Real estate

Investors waiting in the wings

The last two years have been testing for real estate investors. But there are now numerous signs of recovery taking place in selected market areas. Transaction volumes are flattening and, in the UK, where valuations tend to be adjusted relatively quickly to transaction market data, investment volumes are already rising anew. The marginal improvement indicates that we have passed the bottom of this cycle in terms of investment volume.

While the gap between transaction prices and book values is slowly closing, investors in many markets are still on hold, waiting for the anticipated rate cuts to come into effect. After the first cut in June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its rates by another 25bps on 12 September. In view of continuously calming inflation pressures and the slowdown of the US labor market, the Fed cut its policy rates by 50bps on 18 September. The Bank of Canada made a total of three cuts of 25bps each so far in 2024, and the Bank of England cut by 25bps in early August.

With the decline in inflation and the flattening if not the outright drop in long-term interest rates, the pressure on property yields has diminished significantly. They are now flattening in most markets, consequently bringing us to the end of the capital value correction phase. Paris CBD prime offices even saw a marginal (-25bps) yield compression in September compared to August.

However, while real estate prices are expected to recover, appreciation gains in line with those during the time of low or negative interest rates, which were associated with strong investment pressure, are unlikely in the short to medium term. This makes the income return (i.e., rental income) more important as a proportion of total returns and puts segments or markets, where leasing fundamentals are favorable, into the center of attention. We continue to favor segments that are displaying shortage of supply, such as residential, as well as those profiting from structural economic changes, such as logistics.

Infrastructure

Are the stars aligning for private infrastructure?

The Fed’s decrease in rates follows the action of other central banks, which have already started reducing interest rates earlier in the year. Although the future pace of rate cuts around the world will not be as dramatic, this should at least give infrastructure investors some comfort that financing markets will improve steadily, and important consideration given infrastructure assets tend to employ high levels of leverage.

We have previously highlighted that private infrastructure tends to perform well during inflationary environments, since infrastructure typically consists of hard assets that have strong pricing power. Although inflation has slowed down significantly, it is still higher than the 2% target that many central banks have adopted. Meanwhile, GDP growth is also holding up, and has even exceeded consensus expectations from a year ago in some markets (i.e., US and UK).

In other words, we are seeing elevated inflation, higher than expected GDP growth, the beginning of a new rate-cut cycle, and an improvement in overall sentiment for infrastructure. Combined with secular tailwinds from decarbonization, digitalization, deglobalization and demographic change, widespread government support for infrastructure, and continued fiscal strain of governments opening up opportunities for the private sector, the stars appear to be aligning for private infrastructure investors.

Private equity

Rate cuts could jump start exits

The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates could be just what private equity needs to break out from its exit slump.

Higher borrowing costs have weighed on private company performance, but especially exits, since rate increases began in 2022. As interest rates rose, more equity has been required to finance deals, putting downward pressure on returns. Prospective buyers of private companies reacted immediately, demanding compensation in the form of lower purchase prices; many sellers decided to wait for better pricing. The result has been declining deal activity in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

We believe the Fed’s rate cut and guidance to expect more of the same in the coming quarters has the potential to significantly boost deal activity, particularly due to the Fed’s position as the most influential and widely followed central bank (the ECB also cut rates for the second time in September).

A recovery in private equity deal activity and buoyant public markets could also combine to boost fundraising activity. Still, we believe gains may flow to large and established managers, who have taken a larger share of LP capital in recent years.

Transaction activity remains robust; co-investment dynamics favor LPs, especially those already partnered with high-quality sponsors as primary investors. Secondary deal-flow is especially active, and while discounts have closed somewhat (especially for high-quality LP interests), today’s market holds plenty of opportunities for selective investors.

Private credit

Lower rates and impact on residential real estate credit

With the Fed’s recent announcement, the rate cutting cycle has officially commenced in the US. This dynamic should largely be beneficial from a credit perspective as corporate borrowers, real estate owners, small businesses, and consumers will likely have the opportunity to refinance recently originated fixed rate debt at a lower cost of capital in the coming quarters.

Furthermore, borrowers with floating rate debt will experience an immediate relief in borrowing costs as the base rate declines. While the lower rate trajectory is expected to be positive from a credit perspective, there will likely be various impacts on residential real estate and the various asset classes associated with the sector.

As it pertains to residential fundamentals, lower interest rates should positively impact the market. Lower mortgage rates will improve affordability for borrowers through lower borrowing costs and potentially increase demand for housing. This should provide further stability for home prices and all be a credit-positive event for transition lending and project finance strategies.

It is worth noting that lower interest rates could also bring more supply to the housing market. The US residential market has contended with depressed levels of existing home sales due to constrained supply in many markets, which has been driven by the lock-in effect caused by the spike in mortgage rates. As mortgage rates decline, the lock-in effect becomes less impactful for certain existing homeowners and could lead to more existing homes going for sale. Ultimately, lower rates is positive for home prices given the improvement in affordability. However, there could be greater dispersion in terms of home prices by market, as increases in homes available for sale could cause home price growth to be weaker than expected.

Finally, the decline in mortgage rates will also have an impact on prepayment speeds. It will likely result in prepayment speeds increasing compared to what has been observed over the past two years. Specifically for securities investments, faster prepayment speed is positive for legacy, discount dollar price bonds and negative for mortgage derivatives.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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ACY

Economic

Central Bank

China has taken decisive steps to bolster its economy with a series of monetary stimulus measures, demonstrating the government's commitment to reviving growth and stabilizing key sectors. At a highly anticipated press briefing, Pan Gongsheng, the Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), along with other prominent financial regulators, laid out the government’s multifaceted approach.

Key Monetary Stimulus Actions:

Reduction of the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate: The PBOC has lowered this rate to 1.50%, signalling a move to make borrowing cheaper for banks, with the goal of increasing liquidity in the economy.

50 Basis Point Cut in the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR): By cutting the RRR, the central bank is freeing up additional capital that banks can lend, spurring business investment and consumer spending. This measure reflects an effort to reinvigorate lending, particularly to small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Property Market Support: Recognizing the critical role of the real estate sector in China’s economy, the PBOC has unveiled targeted measures for the property market, including:

Lower mortgage rates for new buyers to ease affordability;

Reduced down-payment requirements for second-home purchases, aiming to stimulate activity in the sluggish housing sector and reduce existing financial pressure on homebuyers.

These combined steps are part of a broader strategy to re-energize China’s economy, which has shown signs of slowing growth in recent quarters.

Stock Market Intervention and New Financial Tools:

A standout feature of the PBOC’s announcement is its focus on strengthening China’s stock market. The central bank has introduced an innovative swap facility that allows non-bank financial institutions to use collateral to purchase stocks. This initiative is designed to increase market liquidity and strength investor confidence, especially amid global market volatility. Additionally, the PBOC will provide re-lending loans to encourage share buybacks, a move that can boost stock prices by reducing the number of shares in circulation.

Furthermore, there is talk of establishing a market stabilization fund, which would act as a safety net to prevent drastic fluctuations in stock prices and provide stability in times of uncertainty. These measures are a clear indication that China is prepared to use unconventional tools to protect its markets and restore confidence among both domestic and international investors.

Is There Room for Further Fiscal Stimulus?

While these initiatives are expected to provide much-needed economic relief, what it worries me is the concerns about the long-term impact. While these monetary tools are beneficial, further fiscal stimulus may be required to ensure a sustained economic recovery.

We need for broader government spending on infrastructure and social programs to complement monetary efforts and address deeper structural challenges within the Chinese economy.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slumps:

In contrast to China’s proactive approach, the U.S. economy is facing growing concerns, particularly in terms of consumer confidence. According to recent reports, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index dropped significantly to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in the previous month. This decline reflects growing pessimism about both current economic conditions and prospects. The softening sentiment comes at a time when inflation remains a concern, and households are feeling the pinch of rising prices.

U.S. Labor Market Shows Signs of Weakening:

Adding to these concerns is a noticeable softening in the U.S. labour market. More people are reporting difficulty in finding jobs, a trend closely watched by the Federal Reserve. As the Fed considers its next move on interest rates, this data could signal that the economy is slowing faster than anticipated, leading to potentially more cautious monetary policy decisions soon. The labour market's health will remain a crucial indicator for Fed officials as they navigate a delicate balance between inflation control and economic growth.

China and the U.S. are navigating unique economic challenges, with China employing bold monetary stimulus measures to stimulate growth, while the U.S. is contending with a decline in consumer confidence and a potentially softening labour market. In China, while immediate steps are likely to relieve short-term pressures, experts agree that sustained recovery may require more expansive fiscal intervention. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Fed's response to the weakening labour market and faltering consumer confidence will be critical in shaping the future trajectory of the economy.

These developments highlight the diverging economic paths of two of the world's largest economies, each facing different pressures but crucial to the global financial landscape.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Pepperstone

Central Bank

Economic

While Bank Rate was held steady, as expected, at the September meeting, remaining at 5.00% after the ‘finely balanced’ decision to deliver this cycle’s first cut back in August, there are some signs beginning to emerge that the MPC may be both behind the curve, and out of sync with their DM peers.

This week’s PMI surveys, for example, delivered a dose of pessimism. While all three – manufacturing, services, and composite – gauges remained north of the 50 mark, implying continued expansion, the pace of said expansion moderated for the first time since June, with the manufacturing index a particular concern, having slipped to a 3-month low.

Macro Trader: The BoE May Be Doing More Harm Than Good_1

Digging into the PMI report, there is further cause for concern over the BoE’s present stance. Price pressures, for instance, continued to fade, with inflation in the private sector falling to aa 42-month low in September, per S&P Global’s survey. Concurrently, employment growth in the private sector slowed for the second straight month, to its slowest level since June – a slowdown which, in large part, can be attributed to increased caution amid elevated uncertainty ahead of the Budget on 30th October.

Of course, one must recall that the MPC’s mandate is not growth, but ensuring price stability, as measured by 2% headline inflation. Here, the hawks would point to the need for further progress to be made before further Bank Rate cuts are delivered, particularly after the uptick in both core and services CPI metrics last month. On the other hand, with these upticks driven largely by base effects from 2023, the MPC’s doves would flag that, with headline CPI as near as makes no difference at target, Bank Rate should return to a neutral level in much shorter order.

Macro Trader: The BoE May Be Doing More Harm Than Good_2

In truth, though, it is not Bank Rate that is the issue, but the MPC’s decisions when it comes to the balance sheet.

At the September MPC, the Committee voted unanimously to reduce the BoE’s stock of gilt holdings by a further £100bln over the next 12 months, unchanged from the pace seen in the prior two years, since quantitative tightening began in 2022. The composition of this run-off, however, has changed notably from last year. Due to a whopping £87bln worth of maturing gilts passively rolling off the balance sheet, active sales, which last year ran to just over £50bln, will drop to around £13bln this year.

Macro Trader: The BoE May Be Doing More Harm Than Good_3

There are a few issues here.

Firstly, at a very high level, the BoE’s continued quantitative tightening process, in keeping with that conducted by other G10 central banks, is resulting in the two primary policy levers working in opposite directions. While Bank Rate is reduced, loosening the policy stance, continued balance sheet run-off has the effect of tightening said stance, thus lessening the overall impact of the aforementioned Bank Rate cuts.

Secondly, by continuing to shrink the size of its balance sheet, the Bank increasingly run the risk of conditions within the UK finance system becoming too tight, raising the possibility of a funding squeeze. This can be seen via the BoE’s weekly short-term repo operations, with usage of said facility continuing to surge, hitting a record high on a near-weekly basis, with repo rates also remaining elevated.

Macro Trader: The BoE May Be Doing More Harm Than Good_4

Perhaps the biggest issue, here, however, is on the fiscal side of proceedings.

The ongoing QT process creates issues for the Treasury, who must indemnify the BoE against any losses that are incurred under the programme (profits are passed the other way). This means that, as the BoE crystalise losses from active gilt sales, Government losses mount. Further complicating matters is that the OBR – the god-like authority which runs the rule over Budgets each year – must assume a certain path of gilt sales when producing their forecasts, meaning that assumptions on the path of QT can, and will, have a significant impact on the degree of ‘headroom’ provided to the Chancellor when crafting fiscal policy.

That headroom, for what it’s worth, is calculated as the difference between projected spend, and the limit imposed by the fiscal rules – presently, that net borrowing must not exceed 3% of GDP in the 5th year of the OBR’s forecast, and that public sector net debt must be falling as a proportion of GDP by the same year.

With fiscal headroom having been just £9bln in the March 2024 OBR forecasts, the new Government having already outlined plans to significantly raise taxes and cut spending, plus assumptions on the future path of QT being worth a swing of +/- £15bln in fiscal space, the impact of this rather academic subject quickly becomes clear.

Though Chancellor Reeves could well tweak the fiscal rules in five weeks’ time, excluding the BoE’s QT programme from the calculation, that is unlikely to alter the general theme of the Budget – one of a dramatic fiscal tightening. Risks are elevated that such a tightening could choke off economic growth, in turn posing a significant downside risk to the GBP if a further loss of economic momentum were to force policymakers into a more dramatic dovish shift.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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SAXO

Economic

Why Emerging Markets?

Fed's Goldilocks Scenario

The Fed's recent 50bps rate cut, paired with a strong economy that shows little sign of an immediate downturn, creates a "Goldilocks" scenario for EM. As dollar strength wanes and yields become less attractive in the US, capital often flows into higher-yielding EM assets, providing a potential tailwind for these markets. In addition, easier Fed policy provides room for EM central banks – particularly in Asia – to follow suit and support their own growth, which given additional reasons for flows to get diverted to EM assets.

China's Stimulus and Growth Target

After a period of sluggish growth, China is pushing hard to meet its ambitious 5% GDP target for this year. Several rate cuts and policy measures have been announced, positioning China as the anchor for broader EM growth.

China is planning at least 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) of liquidity support for stocks and will allow brokerages and funds to tap the central bank’s funding to buy equities after the benchmark CSI 300 Index fell to more than a five-year low earlier this month. That came as part of a broad package of policy measures to revive the economy, including a cut to a key short-term interest rate and lower borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages. There were other measures to support the property sector as well, including lower minimum down-payment ratio on second home purchases.

As China focuses on reviving domestic demand, many emerging markets with strong trade ties to China—particularly in Asia—stand to benefit.

Markets to Watch

Emerging markets present diverse opportunities across various sectors and countries. For a broad exposure to EM, investors could consider the following:

Broad EM Exposure

Fed rate cuts may ease currency and rate pressure across all emerging markets and help crowded trading themes such as AI broaden out beyond north Asia. Latin America and Southeast Asia remain well positioned to capture the alpha that Fed easing cycles usually generate for emerging markets.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) - offering comprehensive exposure to emerging market equities.

Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets ex China UCITS ETF (EMXC) - focusing on emerging markets while excluding China for a different risk profile.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (EEMA) – focuses on equities in Asian emerging markets.

BetaShares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASIA) – targets technology companies in Asia (excluding Japan).

iShares MSCI EM Latin America UCITS ETF (LTAM) – provides exposure to key Latin American economies.

iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) – providing broader exposure to Mexico and other key Latin American markets.

India

With domestic demand resilience and structural reforms, India continues to emerge as a bright spot in the EM world. Tailwinds from global supply chain diversification away from China further support growth prospects.

However, investors should watch for risks related to upcoming state elections and the implementation of key reforms such as labor and land policies, which could cause market volatility.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA)

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI)

iShares India 50 ETF (INDY)

Columbia India Consumer ETF (INCO) – targeting India’s expanding consumer market.

VanEck Digital India ETF (DGIN) – for exposure to India’s growing tech and digital sectors.

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

Reliance Industries Limited (RIGD) – a major player in telecommunications and energy, listed in London.

HDFC Bank (HDB) – one of India's leading private sector banks, listed on the NYSE.

Infosys Limited (INFY) – a top IT services firm, with global clients and listed in NY.

Indonesia

With a young population, strong consumer demand, and a government pushing infrastructure development, Indonesia is an emerging market with significant growth potential.

Despite its promise, local elections and labor protests could cause instability. Investors should also monitor how the government handles environmental policies and regional power struggles.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO)

Amundi MSCI Indonesia UCITS ETF (INDO)

VanEck Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX)

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) – Indonesia's largest telecommunications company, listed on the NYSE.

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (PPBY) – A leading state-owned bank in Indonesia, traded on OTC Markets.

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) – Major food and beverage producer in Indonesia, also listed on OTC Markets.

Brazil

Supported by higher commodity prices, Brazil remains an attractive option, particularly in the energy and agriculture sectors. Moreover, its central bank has been proactive in cutting rates, potentially leading to a strong recovery.

Local political risks include ongoing fiscal debates, corruption concerns, and uncertainty over the effectiveness of economic policies. Political polarization in the lead-up to the 2026 election could introduce volatility.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ)

iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (IBZL)

VanEck Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF) – focusing on smaller domestic companies poised for growth.

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

Petrobras (PBR) – Brazil’s state-controlled oil giant, listed on the NYSE.Vale S.A. (VALE) – a leading global mining company, also listed in New York.Ambev S.A. (ABEV) – a major beverage company, listed on NYSE.

South Africa

South Africa's natural resources and mining sector stand to benefit from rising demand for commodities like precious metals. However, frequent power cuts (load shedding) and political scandals continue to threaten growth prospects.

The ANC's internal struggles and upcoming elections could add further uncertainty, with a risk that policy changes or delays in reforms could hit investor sentiment.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA)

VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) – providing exposure to multiple African markets, including South Africa.

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

Naspers Limited (NPSNY) – a major media and internet company, listed in NY.

Anglo American (AAL) – a diversified mining company with a strong presence in South Africa and listed in London.

Mexico

Mexico benefits from its proximity to the US and strong trade relations, particularly as companies nearshore production. This positions Mexico well for future growth, but political risks remain.

Regulatory changes, energy reforms, and nationalist policies could impact market sentiment. Investors should also watch for developments in US-Mexico trade relations, especially under a potential new US administration.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW)

Franklin FTSE Mexico ETF (FLMX) – focusing on large and mid-cap Mexican companies.

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

America Movil (AMX) – a leading telecommunications provider in Latin America, listed on NYSE.

Cemex (CX) – a global building materials company with significant operations in Mexico, listed in New York.

South Korea

South Korea's robust technology and automotive sectors position it well for growth. Companies like Samsung and Hyundai are leaders in their respective fields, driving innovation and exports.

However, investors need to be aware of risks related to North Korean tensions and domestic political issues, which can impact market sentiment.

ETFs to Consider:

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY)

iShares MSCI Korea UCITS ETF (CSKR)

Single Stock ADRs to Consider:

Samsung Electronics (SMSN) – a global leader in technology and consumer electronics, listed in London.

SK Hynix (HYNSE) – a key player in the semiconductor industry, listed in Luxembourg.

Hyundai Motor Company (HYUD) – a leading automotive manufacturer listed in London.

EM Bonds: A Yield Opportunity

For investors looking beyond equities, EM bonds provide an attractive way to capture yield, particularly as global rates decline. EM central banks will have room to cut rates as the Fed begins its easing cycle, further enhancing the appeal of these bonds. EM bonds offer diversification through local currency and dollar-denominated options, capturing both interest rate differentials and potential foreign exchange gains.

Local Currency Bonds: A Strong Play in EMs

As the Fed cuts rates and EM currencies stabilize, local currency bonds provide an opportunity to gain exposure to both yield and FX appreciation. Countries like India, Indonesia, and Brazil offer solid growth prospects alongside relatively higher interest rates. Asia stands out, given the region's resilience and China’s stimulus efforts bolstering neighbouring economies.

Dollar-Denominated Bonds: A Safer Bet

For investors seeking more stability and less currency risk, dollar-denominated EM bonds present a compelling option. These bonds offer higher yields than developed market bonds while limiting exposure to currency fluctuations. Latin American and African countries, such as Brazil and South Africa, feature prominently in this space.

Risks on the Horizon

While emerging markets are positioned for growth, it’s crucial to acknowledge the risks that could derail the momentum:

Recession Risks: Ongoing global economic uncertainty may lead to slowdowns that affect EM growth trajectories.

US Elections: Political shifts and potential changes in trade policies from a new US administration could impact emerging market dynamics.

Risk of Trade Wars: Export-driven markets may be adversely impacted by escalating trade tensions or tariffs, which could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness.

Continued Sluggish Growth from China: Commodity-producing emerging markets may face challenges if China’s economic recovery continues to be slow, affecting demand for key exports.

Volatility: Market fluctuations driven by geopolitical events, economic data releases, and central bank policies may introduce uncertainty.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Cohen

Economic

The data centre market in Malaysia is growing rapidly and will continue to expand further as the current supply of data centres in the country is still insufficient to cater for the increasing demand, according to CBRE Group Inc.

Dedi Iskandar, head of CBRE data centre solutions, advisory and transaction for Asia Pacific, noted that Malaysia, being in the tier-two market for data centres, provides a very attractive landscape and offers the biggest opportunity for growth. He said the country offers vast land areas which are affordable, plenty of power and water resources, as well as greater connectivity for data centre operation.

"The Malaysian market has one of the highest projected growth for data centre capacity in the Asia Pacific region against its current pipeline, estimated to grow at 383% over the next few years. This means that there is big confidence among global data centre operators to bring more capacities into the country.

"The current supply for data centres in Malaysia is not enough and that is why a lot of companies are building new data centre capacity in the country," he told Bernama on the sidelines of Invest Malaysia 2024 @ Iskandar Puteri, here on Thursday.

According to Dedi, Malaysia has also seen accelerated cloud adoption, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, a mere one per cent lower than the global CAGR of 14% this year. Surprisingly, the awareness of artificial intelligence (AI) in Malaysia is also one of the highest in the Asia Pacific region, he said.

"Malaysia has been an early mover to identify and move to attract global AI companies to invest in the country," he said, adding that Malaysia has one of the most sophisticated connectivity to connect the region into broader areas of the world.

Commenting on the capacity in Johor, Dedi noted that the state's data centre capacity currently stands at 154 megawatts and the upcoming and applied capacity is expected to grow to around two gigawatts.

"This is a very clear indication that the capacity is not going to be just for the domestic market, but it is going to be the global hub for Asia Pacific," he added.

A potential area for the next data centre hub

According to Dedi, amid bustling activities for data centres in Johor and the capital Kuala Lumpur, the Sarawak region has the potential to become the next hotspot area for data centre players.

"We see great potential for Sarawak in particular because the majority of their power supplies are coming from the hydro-powered grid and these are very compelling options for investors coming into the region.

"However the main challenge is that there is not enough connectivity to provide seamless services to data centres despite good support from the government," he said.

Dedi noted that Johor and Kuala Lumpur have been very successful regions for data centre facilities based on multiple factors — good connectivity, business-friendly authorities, and continuous support from the government. "To replicate that success in other parts of Malaysia requires more than just the availability of land areas, you need to make sure that proper connectivity goes into that particular location," he said.

Source: The edge markets

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Alex

Economic

While the narrative often suggests that the days of fossil fuels are numbered, Economy Minister Mohd Rafizi Ramli, however, points out that fossil fuels will remain integral to Malaysia’s energy mix well into 2050.

Speaking at the opening ceremony for Oil & Gas Asia (OGA) 2024, the minister pointed out that fossil fuels, the bulk of which is natural gas, will still account for 77% of the country's primary energy supply by 2050. Natural gas will make up 56% of the energy mix.

He stressed that natural gas is a core lynchpin in the country’s National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).

“The path forward lies in reducing our short-term bets on oil, strengthening our position in natural gas, and fully embracing renewables for long-term gains,” said Rafizi.

“We must not forget that (the oil and gas industry) has been at the centre of national development for decades. That has enabled countries to leapfrog in infrastructure and establish sovereign wealth funds for our future generations,” he commented.

The demand for natural gas in Malaysia is set to rise in the coming decades, driven by a pivotal role in the country’s energy transition strategy, according to Rafizi.

While global oil demand is expected to peak within the next six years, Rafizi highlighted that natural gas demand is forecasted to continue growing beyond 2030, with Asia driving much of this increase.

“Malaysia’s own energy mix will see natural gas grow from 43% to 56% between 2023 and 2050,” he said.

The minister explained that natural gas is also an enabler for the country’s energy transition.

“Not only does it (natural gas) secure our energy supply, it gives us the time to build a sustainable and robust renewable energy infrastructure,” Rafizi said.

"It is about phasing down, not phasing out, our reliance on fossil fuels, [while] at the same time, building our capacity for renewables to offset concerns about greater energy demand.

“It is part of the government's long-term strategy in view of certain hard truths in the energy space,” he added.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Owen Li

Economic

India, the fastest-growing major global economy, is on track to add $1 trillion to its GDP every 1.5 years over the next six years, making it the third-largest economy in 2030, according to an IDBI Capital report.

The report suggests that India will become a $10 trillion economy by 2032, more than doubling its current GDP size of $4 trillion. The report highlights that the manufacturing sector will play a major role in driving this accelerated growth.

The upbeat IDBI forecast comes amid a stark warning issued by Moody’s that the third-largest Asian economy’s debt to GDP ratio could reach closer to 100 per cent if the government attempts to fill the annual 3.4 per cent of GDP gap in climate mitigation and adaptation until 2030.

Moody’s Ratings said in a report released in September 2023 that if India were to fill the climate mitigation and adaptation gap by 2030, it would spend more than comparable economies, barring South Africa and Brazil. S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday maintained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent while noting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates in October. In its economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, S&P also retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025-26 (FY26) at 6.9 per cent. It noted that India’s strong growth would help the RBI manage inflation.

IDBI Capital noted that India’s buoyant manufacturing will contribute 32 per cent to the incremental Gross Value Added (GVA).

The data in the report also highlights the remarkable acceleration of India's economic growth in recent years. While it took the country 63 years, from 1947 to 2010, to reach a GDP of $1 trillion, it reached $2 trillion in 2017, just seven years after reaching the first trillion, and $3 trillion in 2020. Although the Covid-19 pandemic slightly slowed growth, extending the time to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2024, the report suggests that India is now poised for exponential growth in the coming years.

According to the report, India is projected to reach a GDP of $10 trillion between 2024 and 2032. This growth will be fuelled by robust manufacturing demand, export potential, and supportive government policies, including Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes.

The report also forecasts that India will surpass major global economies such as the US, China, Germany, South Korea, and Japan in terms of the Industrial Production Index (IIP). "India to overtake top 5 economies in manufacturing IIP ...US, China, Germany, South Korea and Japan... India has the potential to grow on similar lines supported by policy reforms and favourable business climate," the report stated. India's export potential is expected to increase significantly, with exports projected to contribute 25 per cent of GDP by 2030, amounting to $2 trillion.

The report highlighted several key factors driving India's manufacturing and export growth, including rising domestic demand due to increasing disposable incomes, global realignment of supply chains, high export potential, and a supportive financial ecosystem.

Source: khaleejtimes

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IPM Monthly Blog – Edition September 2024

Real estate

Infrastructure

Private equity

Private credit

China Unveils Major Monetary Stimulus as U.S. Faces Rising Economic Uncertainty

Key Monetary Stimulus Actions:

Stock Market Intervention and New Financial Tools:

Is There Room for Further Fiscal Stimulus?

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slumps:

U.S. Labor Market Shows Signs of Weakening:

Macro Trader: The BoE May Be Doing More Harm Than Good

Fed’s Rate Cuts, China’s Bazooka Stimulus: Why Emerging Markets Could Shine

Why Emerging Markets?

Markets to Watch

South Africa

Mexico

South Korea

EM Bonds: A Yield Opportunity

Risks on the Horizon

Malaysian Data Centre Market to Further Expand on Demand Surge

A potential area for the next data centre hub

Source: The edge markets

Netr to Phase Down, Not Phase Out, Fossil Fuels, Says Rafizi

Source: Theedgemarkets

India is on Track to Add $1tr to GDP Every 18 Months Till 2030

Source: khaleejtimes

Risk Disclosure