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Asia-Pacific Markets Dip as Investors Digest South Korea’s Inflation Data.
The Yemeni Houthis reportedly hit two tankers in the Red Sea on Monday, one of them Saudi-flagged.
According to a Reuters report citing U.S. military sources, which said one of the targets hit on Monday was a Panama-flagged vessel named Blue Lagoon I and the other was Saudi-flagged Amjad. The Houthis took responsibility for the Blue Lagoon I hit, Reuters reported, but made no mention of the Saudi-flagged vessel.
According to an AP report, Blue Lagoon I had been traveling to an undisclosed location from the Russian port of Ust Luga, broadcasting that it carried Russian crude on board. The Houthis had previously said they would not target Russian or Middle Eastern ships.
There was no major damage to either of the tankers, which were close to each other when they were hit. Both were able to continue on their way after the strikes. The Saudi-flagged vessel has a capacity for up to 2 million barrels of crude while Blue Lagoon I can carry up to 1 million barrels.
The AP cited the Joint Maritime Information Center, a unit set up to track the Houthis’ activity in the Red Sea and led by the U.S. Army, as saying that the Blue Lagoon I tanker “was targeted due to other vessels within its company structure making recent port calls in Israel.”
“These reckless acts of terrorism by the Houthis continue to destabilize regional and global commerce, as well as put the lives of civilian mariners and maritime ecosystems at risk,” the U.S. Central Command said, as quoted by the AP.
The Houthis have been targeting vessels passing through the Bab el Mandeb strait since last November in reaction to Israeli bombings of Gaza. Initially, the group said it would only target Israeli ships and those sailing under flags of Israeli allies but it has since expanded its campaign. An attempt by the U.S. and some European allies to put an end to the attacks has so far failed to produce any results.
Currency volatility should pick up today as US markets re-open after the long Labour Day weekend and data releases take over. The big event of the day is the ISM manufacturing index in the US. Remember this has been in contraction territory (i.e. below 50) every month since October 2022, excluding a short-lived rebound in March this year. The slack in the manufacturing sector has been priced in for a while, and we’ll probably need to see a rather soft number to trigger recession alarms and drive the dollar materially lower. The consensus is looking at a modest improvement in August, from 46.8 to 47.5.
One sub-index that we are monitoring closely is the ISM Prices Paid, which also experienced a spike this spring but has been subdued over the past couple of months. Consensus expectations are for a decline from 52.9 to 52.0, which should feed into the Fed’s and the market’s conviction call on disinflation.
Our calculations on CFTC future speculative positioning data show that the dollar has moved close to neutral positioning, with aggregate net longs against reported G10 currencies (i.e. G9 excluding SEK and NOK) now only amounting to 5% of open interest, as of 27 August. That is a substantial squeeze from 16% in early July and 24% in early May. When combining this notion with a Fed pricing that factors in one 50bp cut by year-end (100bp over three meetings), the case for another major leg lower in the dollar needs to be matched by rather bearish expectations on upcoming US activity data.
Our US economist is on the lower end of the consensus for payrolls on Friday, but before then there may not be enough bad news to take the dollar much lower. A flattening of DXY in the 101.50/102.0 range is our baseline until Thursday.
EUR/USD found some backing yesterday and given that part of its weakness at the end of August was likely due to month-end flows, support levels may prove sturdier at the start of September. Incidentally, a 2-year EUR:USD spread at -100bp is still some 20-25bp tighter than the end of July, and continues to offer a technical counterargument to bearish bets on EUR/USD.
Some of those bearish bets are related to the stagnant economic situation in Germany, but it seems that investors were rapidly reassured of the political situation after all other German parties appeared determined to keep the far-right AfD away from power after their win in Thuringia. At the same time, the ruling coalition appears increasingly weak, and we cannot exclude some damage to the euro from EU politics down the road. Especially when adding a likely turbulent EU budget season this fall.
For now, those like us seeing EUR/USD holding above 1.10 will be happy with some support ahead of key US data later this week. In the eurozone, the data calendar is empty today, and the only scheduled ECB speaker is German hawk Joachim Nagel.
The UK calendar is very quiet this week, and we expect the pound to move in line with global risk sentiment dynamics. Today, Bank of England MPC member Sarah Breeden speaks at an event on supervisory cooperation, so may not touch upon monetary policy. She has been standing on the neutral side of the hawk-dove spectrum and voted in line with the MPC majority at all meetings.
EUR/GBP is probably awaiting the catalyst for the next big move: either a break below the 0.8380 lows for the year or a return to the 0.85 area. We have generally seen more arguments for EUR/GBP to ultimately move back higher over the past few months, but admit that the BoE or UK data have not offered strong reasons for a material retightening in EUR:GBP rate spreads, meaning the risks are probably quite balanced for the pair in the near term.
Yesterday's PMI numbers showed slight signs of improvement in industrial sentiment for August in most countries, but still across the board remains well below the 50p threshold. At the same time, Turkey's second-quarter GDP delivered a negative surprise pointing to weakening momentum.
This morning saw the release of the 2Q GDP breakdown in Hungary and later today we will see second-quarter wages in the Czech Republic, which we see rising 4.2% YoY in real terms, slightly below market expectations, while the Czech National Bank (CNB) expects 4.6%. This could be the first time in a while that a data print will have the attention of the CNB and could bring some volatility to the summer stable market levels. Also today, in Turkey, we expect inflation to drop again from 61.8% to 51.8% YoY, which is also the market's consensus, mainly due to the base effect and weaker food price growth.
After the US holiday, the markets are back in full mode and we maintain our bias from yesterday for CEE FX. PLN saw the biggest gains within the region following continued repricing up in the rates space ahead of Wednesday's National Bank of Poland meeting. We think there is more to come here plus EUR/USD showed some reversal limiting the negative impact from the previous days. Hence, we continue to be bullish on PLN but also CZK heading below 25.00 EUR/CZK.
Brent crude oil prices have experienced significant selling pressure recently, dipping to 77.21 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Although there has been a slight recovery from earlier lows, the overall market sentiment remains bearish.
Investors are reacting to recent data from OPEC, which indicates that 8 OPEC+ members plan to increase their production by 180,000 barrels per day. This anticipated rise in supply casts a shadow over the oil market, particularly as it coincides with weakening demand indicators from major economies.
A report from the Department of Energy in the US highlighted a drop in oil consumption in June to levels not seen since the summer of 2020, considering seasonal adjustments.
However, some support for oil prices stems from production issues in Libya, where the largest local oilfield has halted production due to state-imposed force majeure. This disruption could pose supply challenges for major oil consumers and as highlighted in commodities analysis, temporarily cushion the impact of broader negative trends.
The H4 chart shows a previous growth impulse peaking at 81.85, followed by a correction down to 75.20, forming a broad consolidation range at this lower level. There is an expectation for a growth move towards 79.00 today. If this level is breached upward, it may signal the continuation of the growth wave to 82.87. This bullish scenario is tentatively supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero but shows signs of an upward trajectory.
On the H1 chart, Brent has formed a corrective structure down to 76.02 and is currently developing a growth structure towards 77.55. A successful breach of this level could open the way for further growth to 79.00, potentially continuing to 82.87. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned around 50 and pointing upwards, indicating potential for further price increases.
Overall, while the short-term technical indicators suggest a possible recovery in Brent prices, the broader market context remains challenging due to increased supply forecasts and weak demand signals from vital global markets.
EURJPY may find significant resistance at 164.00
Rebound off 7-month low still holds
RSI heads down below 50 level
MACD recovers above its trigger line
EURJPY is currently heading south following the unsuccessful battle with the 162.30 resistance level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 175.37 to 154.40. However, a more important struggle for the bulls could come at the 164.00 psychological level, which coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Technical oscillators show some mixed signs. The RSI is pointing downwards beneath the neutral threshold of 50, whereas the MACD is extending its positive momentum above its trigger line.
If the price has a closing session beyond the 162.30 barrier, then the fight with 164.00 would start. A break above it would open the way for a test of the 50.0% Fibonacci of 164.80 before meeting the 50-day SMA at 166.30.
In the negative scenario, a move lower could take the market towards the 159.30-160.05 support region, which encapsulates the 23.6% Fibonacci. More downside pressure could drive the bears towards the more-than-seven-month low of 154.40.
Summarizing, EURJPY has showed some improvement since the bearish spike on August 5 but there is lot of room to cover for changing the outlook to bullish.
Financial markets remain quiet on the second trading day of the week. Later in the day, August ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US will be watched closely by investors. With the long weekend in the US and Canada coming to an end on Tuesday, trading conditions are expected to normalize during the American trading hours.
The US Dollar (USD) Index registered marginal losses on Monday as volumes remained thin. Early Tuesday, the index holds steady above 101.50 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates at around 3.9%. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade in negative territory. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge higher to 47.5 in August from 46.8 in July.
In the early European session, the data from Switzerland showed that the annual Consumer Price Index rose 1.1% on a yearly basis in August. This reading followed the 1.3% increase recorded in July and came in below the market expectation of 1.2%. Other data from Switzerland showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.8% in the second quarter, up from 0.6% in the first quarter. USD/CHF largely ignored these figures and was last seen moving sideways above 0.8500.
After closing the first day of the week in positive territory, EUR/USD struggles to preserve its recovery momentum and edges lower toward 1.1050 in the early European session on Tuesday.
GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction and ended the day virtually unchanged on Monday. The pair stays on the back foot in the European morning and declines toward 1.3100.
Gold touched its lowest level in a week at $2,490 on Monday but managed to erase a portion of its daily losses. XAU/USD holds steady on Tuesday but remains below $2,500.
USD/JPY closed the fourth consecutive trading day in positive territory on Monday and reached its highest level in nearly two weeks above 147.00. The pair stays under bearish pressure early Tuesday and falls toward 146.00.
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