More Questions Than Answers Post-NFP

Economic

Summary:

A mixed November US labour market report provided more questions than answers for participants on Friday, though stocks notched fresh records regardless. Another busy week now awaits.

Something of an inconclusive US labour market report on Friday leaves participants with perhaps more questions than answers as the new trading week gets underway, with just two ‘proper’ weeks left until the festive period begins in earnest.

The US economy added 227k jobs in November, marginally above consensus expectations, and agonisingly close to my own guesstimate of +235k. Added to this, the prior two prints were revised higher by a net +56k, taking the 3-month moving average of job gains to its highest level since May. Of course, a significant chunk of the job gains seen in November were an unwinding of the weather- and strike-related job losses that occurred a month before.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings continue to grow at a solid clip, which should keep the pace of consumer spending resilient, albeit one that doesn’t particularly threaten sustainable achievement of the 2% inflation target over the medium term. Growth of 0.4% MoM, and 4.0% YoY, was unchanged from the pace seen in October, but I’d imagine some of the FOMC’s hawks would probably want this to cool sooner rather than later.

It is, though, the household survey where there is more cause for concern, though a pinch of salt is required given the volatility of the survey this cycle, and falling response rates. In any case, unemployment rose to 4.2%, just shy of the cycle high 4.3% seen in July, while participation slipped to 62.5%, its lowest level since May.

So, the nub is – a solid rebound in payrolls, strong earnings growth, coupled with rising unemployment.

A bit of a head-scratcher, then, for market participants and policymakers alike to grapple with. I’d argue, however, that the rise in unemployment should be enough to cement the case for a 25bp December Fed cut, if only for the reason that it solidifies the idea that the ‘path of least regret’ points in such a direction. If policymakers are concerned about stalling disinflationary progress, or potential upside inflationary risks in the early days of a Trump presidency, then they can perhaps ‘skip’ the January meeting instead.

Participants, by and large, took the jobs report in their stride, with the figures of course dropping at a rather odd time of year, where liquidity is thin, and volumes considerably lighter than usual.

Stocks ended the day in the green, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way higher, while the benchmark S&P 500 notched its 57th all-time closing high of the year. With just 16 trading days to go, 1995’s record of 77 ATHs in a calendar year shan’t be beaten, but the bulls should nevertheless remain in control, as the economic and policy backdrops remain supportive, leaving dips as buying opportunities, albeit with conviction perhaps dwindling as the year draws to a close.

The dollar, meanwhile, was choppy but ultimately a touch softer post-NFP on Friday, though this wasn’t enough to stop the buck from notching a weekly gain – its 9th in the last 10 against a basket of peers, incidentally. I remain a firm believer in the case for further USD upside, as risks around the FOMC outlook become increasingly two-sided into 2025, and as the US economy continues to vastly outperform that of peers. Some haven demand amid renewed geopolitical risks, particularly weekend developments in Syria, might also provide further help to the bull case, at the margin.

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Shares were mostly lower Monday in Asia, with South Korea’s benchmark down 2.3%, after U.S. stocks closed out last week with more records.

The impact on world markets from the overthrow of Syrian leader Bashar Assad, who sought asylum in Moscow after rebels ended the Assad family’s 50 years of iron rule, remained unclear. Oil prices were mixed, while U.S. futures edged lower.

The political situation remained tense in South Korea as local media reported that the police were considering imposing an overseas travel ban on President Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon’s status remained uncertain after he declared martial law last week in the midst of a budget dispute and then reversed that hours later.

The Kospi in Seoul dipped 2.3% to 2,372.02.

Chinese shares also fell, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.6% at 19,753.26 and the Shanghai Composite index falling 0.4% to 3,390.62. Investors are awaiting a major economic planning meeting expected this week that will set the policy agenda for coming months, possibly bringing fresh stimulus for the world’s No. 2 economy.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index edged 0.2% higher, to 39,161.10 as the Japanese yen gained against the U.S. dollar. The dollar was trading at 149.94 yen early Monday, down from 150.07 yen. Traders are increasingly expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to help counter the yen’s prolonged slump against the dollar and keep price increases under control.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to 8,400.80. India’s Sensex edged 0.1% lower, while Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.4%. In Bangkok, the SET was down 0.3%.

On Friday, U.S. stocks rose to records Friday after data suggested the job market remains solid enough to keep the economy going, but not so strong that it raises immediate worries about inflation.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% to 6,090.27, just enough to log another all-time high, closing a third straight winning week in what looks to be one of its best years since the 2000 dot-com bust. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% to 44,642.52, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.8% to set its own record of 19,859.77.

The jobs report strengthened traders’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its next meeting in two weeks. It showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected last month, but also said the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

The Fed has been easing its main interest rate from a two-decade high since September to offer more help for the slowing job market, after bringing inflation nearly all the way down to its 2% target. Lower interest rates can ease the brakes off the economy, but they can also offer more fuel for inflation.

The S&P 500 has set an all-time high 57 times so far this year.

For now, the hope is that the job market can help U.S. shoppers continue to spend and keep the U.S. economy out of a recession that had earlier seemed inevitable after the Fed began hiking interest rates swiftly to crush inflation.

Retailers overall have been offering mixed signals on how resilient U.S. shoppers can remain amid the slowing job market and still-high prices. Target gave a dour forecast for the holiday shopping season, for example, while Walmart gave a much more encouraging outlook.

A report on Friday suggested sentiment among U.S. consumers may be improving more than economists expected. The preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s survey hit its highest level in seven months. The survey found a surge in buying for some products as consumers tried to get ahead of possible increases in price due to higher tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has threatened.

In tech, Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped 10.6% for one of the S&P 500’s larger gains after reporting stronger profit and revenue than expected. Tech stocks were some of the market’s strongest this week, as Salesforce and other big companies talked up how much of a boost they’re getting from the artificial-intelligence boom.

In other dealings early Friday, Bitcoin was sitting near $99,600 after bursting above $103,000 to a record the day before.

U.S. benchmark crude oil gained 31 cents to $67.51 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 7 cents to $71.05 per barrel.

The euro slipped to $1.0537 from $1.0561.

Source: AP

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ACY

Economic

Forex

Markets are experiencing significant volatility as central bank policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments shape the financial landscape. Recent commentary from Luca Santos of ICI Securities sheds light on how these factors are influencing the U.S. dollar, Federal Reserve policy, and the Australian dollar.

Federal Reserve's Path Forward

The Federal Reserve has indicated a continuation of rate cuts, though potentially at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Markets are projecting a 25-basis-point cut in December, with further adjustments in early 2025. However, there is speculation that cuts could pause or taper as the Fed assesses inflation, which remains higher than in Europe. This cautious approach reflects the Fed’s balancing act between sustaining economic growth and managing inflation risks.

The divergence between the Fed and the more dovish European Central Bank has contributed to a stronger U.S. dollar. This trend is also supported by geopolitical uncertainties, including the anticipated influence of the incoming Trump administration.

Pressures on the Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, trading around 64–65 cents. Analysts predict it could fall further to 62 cents in the first quarter of 2025. Key factors driving this decline include a contracting Australian GDP and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) reluctance to cut interest rates. While some central banks are actively reducing rates, the RBA has maintained a cautious stance, citing persistent inflation and resilient consumer spending.

Despite high interest rates, Australians have been drawing on savings to support property purchases and spending, complicating the RBA’s efforts to cool inflation. This dynamic, coupled with weaker-than-expected GDP growth, leaves the Australian economy in a challenging position.

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Justin

Economic

Forex

The NZD/USD pair faces some selling pressure to around 0.5805 during the early European session on Monday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and discouraging Chinese consumer inflation undermine the pair. The US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be the highlight on Wednesday.

China's CPI inflation hit a five-month low in November, indicating that Beijing's recent measures to boost weakening economic demand are having little impact, weighing on the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

Additionally, the potential fresh tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump might create a headwind for NZD/USD. On Monday, Fitch Ratings lowered its economic projections for China for 2025 to 4.3% from 4.5%, citing risks of even higher US tariffs on Chinese goods.

On the USD’s front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials appeared on track to lower its interest rates in the December meeting after data showed the US labor market remained solid but continued to cool in November. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets currently see an 85.1% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut this month.

With a quarter-point rate cut by the US central bank next week a near certainty as per market pricing, analysts believe the Greenback might face some profit-taking after its long run-up in the four weeks since Donald Trump won the US Presidential election. This, in turn, might cap the downside for the NZD/USD pair.

However, traders will focus on the US inflation report on Wednesday for fresh impetus. "The inflation read may determine if we will have a hawkish cut from U.S. policymakers next week, which could still see the U.S. dollar stronger if the Fed were to set the stage for a pause in the rate-cutting process into early 2025," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

Source: FXSTREET

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

Economic

[Quick Facts]

1. Syrian rebels topple President Assad.

2. South Korea's ruling party head says President Yoon Suk Yeol will not engage in state affairs ahead of his impending resignation.

3. Polls show Germany's conservatives could govern with the Greens.

4. UK's job vacancies see the largest drop in four years.

5. US non-farm payrolls rebound significantly.

6. US consumer confidence index hits its highest level since May.

[News Details]

Syrian rebels topple President Assad

Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar Assad and seized control of Damascus on Sunday, forcing him to flee and ending his family's decades of rule after more than 13 years of civil war in a seismic moment for the Middle East. This development has dealt a significant blow to Assad's allies, Russia and Iran, and their influence in the region. The Syrian Rebel Alliance stated on Sunday that efforts are underway to complete the power transfer to a transitional governing body with full administrative authority.

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol will not engage in state affairs ahead of his impending resignation

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote in parliament on Saturday. The head of South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party announced plans to reintroduce the impeachment motion during an extraordinary parliamentary session on Wednesday, December 11.

South Korea's Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon held talks on the country's political situation on December 8. Han Dong-hoon said that the majority of the public believes the president should resign, adding that Yoon Suk Yeol will not engage in state affairs ahead of his impending resignation.

Polls show Germany's conservatives could govern with the Greens

Germany's conservatives and Greens would have a majority to form a government after the snap election in February, according to a new opinion poll published Saturday.

The two parties would have a combined 44% representation, the latest Insa survey for Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed. The Free Democrats, meanwhile, would miss the 5% threshold for getting into parliament as their backing fell one percentage point to 4% from last week.

UK's job vacancies see the largest drop in four years

Vacancies recorded the steepest decline since August 2020, driven by a fall in permanent positions, according to the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG. The drop in vacancies, coupled with an increase in available workers, has kept wage growth at its lowest since 2021.

This report is one of the clearest signals yet that the £40 billion ($50.9 billion) tax hike announced by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30 is suppressing hiring activity. Employers are bearing the brunt, facing not only a 6.7% increase in the minimum wage but also a 1.2-percentage-point rise in payroll taxes since April.

"Businesses are having to weigh up the prospect of increasing employee costs following the Budget, which has led to an accelerated slowdown in hiring activity across the board, said Jon Holt, Group Chief Executive and UK Senior Partner KPMG. The Bank of England is closely monitoring the REC survey, paying attention to the budget's impact on hiring, wages, and consumer prices to assess whether adjustments to its "gradual" approach to interest rate cuts are necessary.

US non-farm payrolls rebound significantly

US non-farm payrolls saw an increase of 227,000 jobs in November, compared to October's 36,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from October's 4.1%. Key contributors to job growth included the education, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality sectors. As strikes at major companies like Boeing ended, and disruptions from hurricanes subsided, job growth in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, as well as professional and business services sectors, turned from negative to positive. However, since Black Friday occurred late in November, the associated employment gains were not captured in the November data, possibly contributing to a sharper decline in retail employment growth.

The data revealed a significant increase in employment, likely fueled by the resolution of temporary disruptions from hurricanes and strikes that occurred in October. However, it is worth noting that the unemployment rate rose to 4.246% in November, approaching the year's peak of 4.253% in July. The number of people unemployed for 15 weeks or more also continued to trend upward. Meanwhile, with a slight decline in the labor force participation rate and unchanged average working hours, the month-over-month growth in average hourly earnings slowed, possibly indicating weakening conditions on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market.

Given that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that monetary policy decisions would depend on economic trends, the marginal increase in unemployment suggests the Fed may still consider a rate cut in December.

US consumer confidence index hits its highest level since May

The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 74.0 in December from 71.8 in November, exceeding market expectations of 73.0.

One-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.9% in December from 2.6% in November, the highest in six months, while long-term expectations fell slightly to 3.1% from 3.2%.

A surge in buying conditions for durables led Current Economic Conditions to soar more than 20%. Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases.

[Today's Focus]

None

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Central Bank

Economic

RBA to hold rates, but will it turn less hawkish?

The Reserve Bank of Australia will kick off the central bank bonanza next week, announcing its decision on Tuesday. Unlike its major peers, the RBA has not yet embarked on a rate-cutting cycle as policymakers remain wary about inflation despite the recent decline.

Governor Michelle Bullock said underlying inflation is still “too high” in recent remarks and doesn’t expect for it to return to target sustainably until 2026. Unless that outlook changes, the RBA isn’t about to ditch its ‘higher for longer’ stance anytime soon, and investors don’t see a rate cut before April 2025.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_1

Even April was considered a bit optimistic prior to the GDP data that showed Australia’s economy grew by slightly less than forecast in the third quarter. The soft reading undermines Bullock’s claim about the level of excess demand in the economy. Monthly CPI was also weaker than expected in October, and further downside surprises could see the timing of the first rate reduction being brought forward again.

This may prompt Bullock and other board members to sound a little more upbeat about inflation as they keep rates at 4.35%. A dovish lean could push the Australian dollar below the four-month lows brushed on the back of the GDP print.

Aussie traders will also be keeping an eye on the November employment report due on Thursday, as well as CPI and PPI figures out of China on Monday, and November trade figures on Tuesday.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_2

Whilst the Chinese data will be important in gauging the health of the world’s second largest economy, a bigger market mover might be any new announcement on stimulus, as political leaders meet next week to set out Beijing’s economic plan for 2025.

Will the BoC cut by 50 bps again?

In sharp contrast to the RBA, the Bank of Canada has been taking the lead in the global race to cut rates. The BoC has slashed rates four times this year, the last being a hefty 50 basis points. But investors are split if another double cut is likely in December.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_3

Both headline and underlying measures of inflation ticked up in October, and the jobs market is rebounding after a soft patch. On the other hand, growth remains subdued and businesses are downbeat about the outlook, especially now that US president-elect Donald Trump is threatening tariffs of 25% on all Canadian imports.

Another consideration for the BoC is the widening yield spread with the US, as the Fed has not been as aggressive and may even go on pause soon. With the Canadian dollar already down more than 6% this year, policymakers may not want to risk lowering rates significantly below US ones.

Hence, Wednesday’s decision of whether to cut by 25 bps or 50 bps will likely be a very close call, and the risks to the loonie are symmetrical.

Dollar awaits CPI data as Fed meeting looms

The December policy decision is also proving to be a bit of a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. Judging by the latest rhetoric, most Fed officials appear to be in favour of a 25-bps reduction at the December 17-18 meeting but are not ready to commit just yet.

The CPI report for November out on Wednesday will be the last major piece of the jigsaw for policymakers ahead of the meeting, so a strong market reaction is almost guaranteed.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_4

The headline rate of CPI is expected to edge up from 2.6% to 2.7% y/y, while core CPI is projected to stay unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Barring any upside surprises, the Fed will probably be inclined to lower rates and keep the January meeting as an option for pausing.

The producer price index will follow on Thursday.

The US dollar is consolidating after hitting two-year highs in November. Any unwelcome acceleration in the month-on-month rates could recharge the bulls to drive the dollar index to fresh highs.

SNB set for first cut under dovish new Chairman

The Swiss National Bank has trimmed rates three times since March when it became the first of the major central banks to ease policy. It’s widely expected to cut again in December, which will be new Chairman Martin Schlegel’s first decision since taking over from Thomas Jordan in October.

However, the size of the cut is less certain, and the choice between 25 bps or 50 bps was looking like a coin toss until the October CPI data came along. Switzerland’s annual CPI rate increased by 0.7%, falling short of the 0.8% expected. The odds for a 50-bps cut subsequently rose to more than 60%.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_5

Dovish remarks by Schlegel have further boosted the chances for a larger reduction, after he repeatedly floated the idea of reintroducing negative interest rates if necessary.

Should the SNB opt for a 50-bps cut on Thursday, the Swiss franc could resume its downfall against the US dollar. However, if policymakers stick with a 25-bps increment, the franc could extend its latest recovery.

ECB unlikely to go big in December

Soon after the SNB announces its policy settings, the European Central Bank is expected to hit the headlines with its rate decision. A rate cut is almost certain, with economists predicting a 25-bps reduction. However, some investors think that a 50-bps cut is on the cards, although the odds have fallen in recent days to about 15%.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_6

This has helped the euro to stabilize a little against the US dollar as ECB policymakers, including President Lagarde, have been careful not to pre-commit to a particular rate path amid a pickup in inflation in the euro area.

Nevertheless, a weak economy and renewed political uncertainty in both France and Germany have some traders betting that the ECB will have to be a lot more aggressive with its policy easing in the coming months.

However, it’s unlikely that the ECB will change its stance just yet and if it cuts rates by 25 bps as forecast on Thursday, the euro may not move much unless there is some unexpectedly dovish language by Lagarde in her post-meeting press briefing on Thursday that spurs a fresh selloff.

Pound rebounds ahead of UK data

Across the channel, the uncertainty over the UK economic outlook has also risen, mainly on the back of the Labour government’s budget. The tax and spend budget has been widely perceived as boosting inflation, limiting the scope for the Bank of England to cut interest rates. And whilst it does include measures that could lift growth, in the immediate term, the British economy appears to have stagnated.

GDP numbers for October will therefore be closely watched on Friday for signs that growth is coming out of the doldrums.

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too_7

Although sterling has recouped a decent portion of its recent losses against the greenback, stronger-than-expected growth data could help it extend the gains.

Elsewhere, the yen might be sensitive to any revisions to Japan’s Q3 GDP print on Monday and any surprises in Friday’s quarterly Tankan business survey amid ongoing speculation about whether or not the Bank of Japan will hike rates at its December meeting.

Source:XM

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Owen Li

Economic

One of the most damaging economic effects of Brexit is the loss of access to financing in the UK by the European Investment Bank, the world’s largest multilateral financial institution. During the UK’s European Union membership, the EIB invested some £150bn into UK projects, mainly in large-scale infrastructure, including the Channel Tunnel, the Second Severn Crossing, the Manchester Metrolink Extension, the water industry and rail track renewal across most regions of the country.

Since the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, the EIB has also extended lending to projects in ‘human capital’ such as schools, universities, hospitals and social housing. More recently, it has rebranded itself as the ‘EU’s climate bank’, with the aim of dedicating 50% of its investments to climate action and environmental sustainability.

In 2016, the last year of full UK EU membership, the EIB lent £7.5bn to the UK. Since the bank, on average, lends about a third of total project cost – to act as a catalyst to other long-term joint lenders – this sum represents two to three times the total project investment involved.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer placed heavy emphasis on economic growth in the October 2024 budget and the investment necessary to achieve this. One of the principal instruments was the creation of a new National Wealth Fund of £7.3bn of which £5.8bn would be committed over the current Parliament in support of the newly created UK Infrastructure Bank. The government’s aim is that this, together with the recently established Development Bank of Wales and the Scottish National Investment Bank, will replace the investment that previously came from the EIB. This is highly ambitious.

While the NWF will provide an important new stimulus, the amounts lent by the new development banks combined are only a fraction of the annual EIB average from 2009 to 2016. The UKIB lent only £0.8bn against a target of £1.5bn in 2022. It lacks both the financial, engineering and market expertise that the EIB has built up over many years and critically, the EIB’s much larger access to the world’s capital markets.

As for the new Welsh and Scottish banks, their potential is limited. Not only are they not allowed to borrow on the capital markets, but they are also restricted to investing the annual amount they receive from the government.

Since the UK has left the EU, it no longer has automatic access to EIB lending. Moreover, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated that there will be no reversal of Brexit – ruling out re-entry to the single market and/or customs union – in his lifetime. Under its statutes, however, the EIB can and does, with the agreement of its governing bodies, lend for projects in non-EU member states. Such investment has amounted to only a small proportion of its total lending, and historically much of it took place in former French and British colonial territories, such as under the Lome Convention.

From the 1990s, however, substantial lending programmes were launched in a number of central and eastern European countries who were aspiring to EU membership. Legally, therefore, there is no bar to resume EIB lending in non-member UK if political agreement could be reached to this.

The attainment of such agreement would clearly be very difficult, to put it mildly. The EU is averse to ‘cherry picking’ and there would undoubtedly be a serious price to pay on the UK’s side. But the UK government is committed to a ‘reset’ of its trade and investment relationship with the EU and surely, at a time when likely global developments mean that we must move back closer to the EU, the possibility of at least some resumption of sorely needed EIB investment in the UK is worth setting as a negotiating aim. I am sure that the EIB, which still employs British staff and knows the British market very well, would itself much welcome such a development.

Source:Brian Unwin

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More Questions Than Answers Post-NFP

Stock Market Today: Asian Shares Slide, With Korean Benchmark Down 2.5%, After Wall St Hits Records

Source: AP

Why the Australian Dollar is Poised to Struggle in 2025

Federal Reserve's Path Forward

Pressures on the Australian Dollar

Nzd/usd Attracts Some Sellers To Near 0.5805 As China’s Deflationary Pressure Persists

Source: FXSTREET

December 9th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

Week Ahead – Central Bank Bonanza Begins, US CPI Eyed Too

RBA to hold rates, but will it turn less hawkish?

Will the BoC cut by 50 bps again?

Dollar awaits CPI data as Fed meeting looms

SNB set for first cut under dovish new Chairman

ECB unlikely to go big in December

Pound rebounds ahead of UK data

Source:XM

UK Infrastructure Bank’s ambitious aim to replace EIB investment

Source:Brian Unwin

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