NZ First Impressions: ANZ Business Confidence, September 2024

Westpac

Economic

Summary:

Business sentiment has continued to charge higher as interest rate pressures ease, but activity remains soft for now.

Key results (September 2024)

Business confidence: 60.9 (Prev: 50.6);

Expectations for own trading activity: 45.3 (Prev: 37.1);

Activity vs same month one year ago: -18.5 (Prev: -23.1);

Inflation expectations: 2.92% (Prev: 2.92%);

Pricing intentions: 42.8 (Prev: 41.0).

September saw another sharp rise in headline business confidence. It’s now back at levels we last saw in 2014.

Businesses are also feeling more optimistic about their own prospects, with a net 45% expecting trading conditions will improve over the coming year. That’s also the highest it’s been since 2014.

The lift in business confidence follows the start of the RBNZ’s easing cycle in August, with interest rates expected to trend down over the coming year.

But while businesses are feeling more optimistic about the outlook, for now they continue to face weak trading conditions. There were more businesses who reported that sales fell over the past year than reported increases, and many have shed staff.

After trending down over the past year, gauges of inflation pressures have stabilised. While not low, they’re looking more consistent with the RBNZ’s goals than they have for a long time, with inflation expected to be at 2.9% this time next year (the same as in the previous survey).

Overall, today’s results probably broadly match the RBNZ’s expectations, and likely won’t have changed their thinking ahead of next week’s policy announcement: Activity remains soft; inflation pressures have stabilised and are well down on the elevated levels we saw in recent years; and signs of a firming in growth over 2025 are starting to emerge. Against that backdrop, we’re forecasting a 25bp cut in the OCR at next week’s RBNZ policy review. The last piece of key data before the RBNZ meets will be tomorrow’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, which we expect will show similar trends to today’s ANZBO survey.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Forex

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday after dovish comments from Japan's upcoming Prime Minister, former Defense Chief Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba stated on Sunday that the country's monetary policy should continue to be accommodative, indicating the necessity of maintaining low borrowing costs to support a fragile economic recovery, according to The Japan Times.

Japan's Retail Trade increased by 2.8% year-on-year in August, surpassing market expectations of 2.3% and slightly exceeding the upwardly revised 2.7% rise from the previous month. On a month-over-month basis, seasonally adjusted Retail Trade rose by 0.8%, marking the largest increase in three months, following a 0.2% gain in July.

The US Dollar received downward pressure following last Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for August, which aligns with the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation outlook. This has reinforced the possibility of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle by the central bank.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are assigning a 42.9% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, while the likelihood of a 50-basis-point increased to 57.1%, up from 50.4% a week ago.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen receives downward pressure from doubts over BoJ policy outlook

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, refrained from commenting on Monday's daily stock market fluctuations. Hayashi emphasized the importance of closely monitoring the economic and financial situation both domestically and internationally with a sense of urgency. He also noted the need for ongoing collaboration with the Bank of Japan.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem stated on Friday, according to the Financial Times, that the Fed should begin cutting interest rates "gradually" following a larger-than-usual half-point reduction at the September meeting. Musalem acknowledged the possibility of the economy weakening more than anticipated, saying, "If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate."

The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August increased by 0.1% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations of a 0.2% rise and lower than the previous 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, the Core PCE on a year-over-year basis rose by 2.7%, matching expectations and slightly above the prior reading of 2.6%.

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.2% year-over-year in September, down from a 2.6% rise in August. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy climbed 1.6% YoY in September, unchanged from the previous reading. The CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.0% as expected, compared to the previous rise of 2.4%.

US Gross Domestic Product Annualized increased at a rate of 3.0% in the second quarter, as previously estimated, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday. Meanwhile, the GDP Price Index rose 2.5% in the second quarter.

On Thursday, the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes expressed the members’ consensus on the importance of remaining vigilant regarding the risks of inflation exceeding targets. Several members indicated that raising rates to 0.25% would be suitable as a way to adjust the level of monetary support. A few others suggested that a moderate adjustment to monetary support would also be appropriate.

Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank has time to evaluate market and economic conditions before making any policy adjustments, signaling that there is no urgency to raise interest rates again. Ueda also noted that Japan's real interest rate remains deeply negative, which is helping to stimulate the economy and drive up prices.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains above 142.00 after breaking below the ascending channel

USD/JPY trades around 142.20 on Monday. Analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair has broken below the ascending channel pattern, signaling a momentum shift from a bullish to a bearish bias. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is situated below the 50 level, indicating a bearish sentiment is in play.

In terms of support, the USD/JPY pair may navigate around the 139.58 region, the lowest point since June 2023.

On the upside, a return to the ascending channel could weaken the bearish case and lead the USD/JPY pair to test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 143.10 level. A break above this level could support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 146.20 level, followed by its five-week high of 147.21 level, which was recorded on September 3.

Source: FXSTREET

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SAXO

Economic

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 30, 2024_1

Macro:

US Core PCE rose 0.13% in August, in line with the 0.15% forecast and prior 0.16%. The Y/Y print rose by 2.7%, accelerating from the prior 2.6% pace, but in line with the 2.7% forecast. On an annualised basis, the 6-month rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest since December, with the 3-month rate at 2.1%. The headline PCE rose 0.09% (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.16%), with the Y/Y rising 2.2%, beneath the 2.3% forecast and falling from the prior 2.5%. This added to conviction that consumer prices are on track to hit 2% target in September, and could continue to allow the Fed to focus on the labor market mandate instead.The

University of Michigan survey’s headline for September was revised up to 70.1 from 69.0, above the expected 69.3. Current conditions and forward-looking expectations were both revised higher to 63.3 (prev. 62.9) and 74.4 (prev. 43.0), respectively. On inflation, 1- and 5-year expectations were left unchanged at 1.7%, and 3.1%, respectively.

Japan’s ruling party elections resulted in Shigeru Ishiba defeating his dovish opponent Sanae Takaichi. Ishiba has said he supports the Bank of Japan’s independence and normalization path in principle, and that the country needs to defeat deflation. Reports suggest that the new Japan PM is planning a general election for October 27.

Fresh streaks of stimulus out of China on Friday and over the weekend. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) hosted a meeting on Friday and assured support to private enterprises. On Sunday the People's Bank of China announced it'd be instructing banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31. Guangzhou city announced it'd be lifting of all restrictions on home purchases. Shanghai and Shenzhen said they would ease restrictions on housing purchases by non-local buyers and lower the minimum downpayment ratio for first homebuyers to no less than 15%. To read more about how to position as China blasts a series of stimulus measures, reads this article.

Macro events: Chinese NBS & Caixin PMIs (Sep), Germany Retail Sales (Jun), UK GDP (Q2 F), German Flash CPI (Sep), Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde

Earnings: Carnival

Equities: In Asian markets, the Nikkei Index rose 2.32% to 39,829, the Shanghai Index increased 2.88% to 3,087, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 3.55% to 20,632. Chinese markets had their best week in nearly 16 years, with the CSI 300 rallying 15.7% due to central bank stimulus measures. The Hang Seng Index recorded a 12.75% weekly gain. In the US, stocks finished mixed on Friday as investors assessed new inflation data. The S&P 500 lost 0.1%, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% due to a 2.1% drop in Nvidia shares, while the Dow Jones gained 0.3% to hit a new record. The August PCE index showed a mild 0.1% increase, suggesting cooling inflation and raising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut. US consumer sentiment reached a five-month high, supporting hopes for inflation to reach the Fed’s 2% target by 2024. Costco shares fell 1.7% after missing fiscal fourth-quarter revenue expectations, and HP shares dropped 1% following a downgrade by BofA. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Dow Jones increased 0.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%.

Fixed income: Treasuries rose after August PCE data showed slightly softer-than-expected inflation gauges, with personal income and spending increases also missing estimates. The trend continued into the afternoon amid a risk-off environment following Israel’s bombing of Hezbollah’s Beirut headquarters. The front-end outperformed, re-steepening the curve and partially reversing Thursday’s sharp flattening. Treasury yields were richer by 7 to 3.5 basis points across the curve, with front-end gains steepening the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 1.8 and 3 basis points, respectively. The 10-year yield traded around 3.75%, richer by 5 basis points, ending near the lower end of the weekly range of 3.72% to 3.82%. Most gains came after the August PCE data, prompting a bull steepening as front-end yields led the rally. By session's end, Fed OIS priced in around 37 basis points of rate cuts for the November meeting, up from 36 basis points on Thursday, and a combined 76 basis points of cuts by the December FOMC, compared to 73 basis points prior. Following the Fed’s half-point rate cut on September 18, asset managers appeared to take profits on front-end positions, with both SOFR futures and two-year note futures seeing a reduction in net-long positioning.

Commodities: Gold prices fell by 0.53% to around $2,658 on Friday, following a record high of $2,672 in the previous session, as investors took profits. Despite this retreat, gold gained approximately 1.6% for the week, driven by the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point rate cut and China's stimulus measures. Silver also declined by 1.41% to $31.57. U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.75% to $68.18, and Brent Crude futures increased by 0.53% to $71.98. However, oil prices dropped about 4% for the week due to progress on a Libyan deal that could boost exports and Saudi Arabia's commitment to easing OPEC+ production curbs. U.S. natural gas futures surged by 5% to a 14-week high as Hurricane Helene impacted the U.S. Southeast, leading to production cuts in the Gulf of Mexico and widespread power outages in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

FX: The US dollar ended the week lower by 0.3%, mostly on the back of gains in the Japanese yen on Friday after the nomination of Ishiba as the ruling party leader. Ishiba’s support for further policy normalization from the Bank of Japan sent a strong tremor of hawkish wave in the market. General risk-on also prevailed in the market on the back of stimulus measures from China, and commodity currencies kiwi dollar and Aussie dollar outperformed on the week, while the euro ended flat as markets continue to assess the ECB’s rate cut path. Germany’s flash inflation due today could bring further pressure on the single currency if they are softer than expectations.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Forex

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds its position around $69.20 per barrel during Monday’s Asian hours. However, crude Oil prices could appreciate amid growing concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East following Israel's intensified attacks on Iranian-backed militant groups Hezbollah and the Houthis. These geopolitical tensions may lead to fears of instability in the region, potentially impacting Oil supply and driving prices higher.

Reuters reports that ANZ Research has noted that the recent escalation of attacks in the Middle East is raising the likelihood of Iran, a significant producer and member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), becoming directly involved in the conflict.

Israel announced it bombed Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday, broadening its confrontation with Iran's allies. This action follows the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah two days earlier, intensifying the ongoing conflict in Lebanon.

Oil prices might have received downward pressure following the mixed Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the world’s largest crude importer China. China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in September, indicating contraction, down from 50.4 in August. China’s NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved to 49.8 in September, up from 49.1 in the previous month and surpassing the market consensus of 49.5.

Additionally, Oil traders are closely monitoring recent monetary measures in China aimed at stimulating economic activity and boosting energy demand. Last week, China announced to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, facing multiple challenges. This substantial capital infusion would mark the first of its kind since the 2008 global financial crisis.

However, crude Oil prices may face challenges from Saudi Arabia's plans to increase production later this year, alongside OPEC+'s decision to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. A report from the Financial Times, citing unnamed sources familiar with the country's plans, indicated that Saudi Arabia is committed to resuming production on December 1, even if it results in a period of lower prices.

Source: FXSTREET

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Iran calls for emergency UN Security Council meeting as Lebanon-Israel conflict intensifies.

2. More than 100,000 US workers will strike, and the impact is widespread. The Biden administration will find it hard to intervene before the election.

3. Oil prices rebound slightly as crude oil market weighs supply and demand.

4. Moody downgrades Israel's credit rating, and further downgrades are possible.

5. Musalem: Faster rate cuts may be appropriate if labor market weakens further.

[News Details]

Iran calls for emergency UN Security Council meeting as Lebanon-Israel conflict intensifies

Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Iravani, sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council on November 28th, calling for an urgent meeting of the Council. In his letter, Iravani said that Israel, with the support of the United States, has committed aggression against Lebanon, which poses a serious threat to regional and world peace and security and violates the Charter of the United Nations and international law. Iran strongly condemns this. Iran calls on the Security Council to take immediate and decisive action to stop the ongoing Israeli aggression and avoid dragging the region into an all-out war.

Iran also warns that it will not tolerate attacks against its diplomatic facilities and personnel. Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent rights under international law and take all measures to defend its vital national and security interests.

More than 100,000 US workers will strike, and the impact is widespread. The Biden administration will find it hard to intervene before the election

On 30 September, 45,000 people will strike on the US East Coast and the Gulf Coast, which, stacked with a strike by Boeing machinists, could result in 100,000 people temporarily losing their jobs. CBS News said that US East Coast port workers have been negotiating with shipping organizations representing terminal operators and ocean carriers over pay rises, with a demand for a 77 percent pay rise over a six-year period, due to a basic wage that is far lower than that of West Coast port workers. In addition, the unions are demanding a ban on the automation of machinery and equipment used to load and unload cargo at more than 30 ports.

This would be the first strike since 1977, meaning that more than 68 percent of US container exports and 56 percent of import business would then be affected. Economists say that for every week that port workers are on strike, US economic activity is reduced by $4.5 to $7.5 billion, and clearing the backlog of cargo can take up to a month. If the strike lasts more than a month, some US companies will face shortages of raw materials, such as cotton, lumber, and copper, which are mostly transported through East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, while the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries may also be affected.

According to an analysis by the Associated Press, the Biden administration may use the Taft-Hartley Act to force dockworkers to return to work, as it did to intervene in the rail strike in 2022. However, this may not happen before the presidential election. The Biden administration has long been considered pro-union, and forcing workers back to work could raise political risks, especially so close to the presidential election.

Oil prices rebound slightly as crude oil market weighs supply and demand

After the continuous decline in oil prices, although Saudi Arabia tends to follow a small increase in production, the market expects a suspended production raise. Now, the market is waiting for the follow-up of Saudi Arabia's production cuts agreement. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate despite frequent conflicts in the Middle East because the market is less sensitive to the geopolitical situation. At the same time, there is a large amount of idle capacity in the Middle East. Thus, the market is more concerned about issues including the economic downturn and weakening demand. As a result, the rebound was insufficient, and the consolidation will be extended. Investors should take a look at the key level at $70/bbl.

Moody downgrades Israel's credit rating, and further downgrades are possible

On Friday, Moody's downgraded Israel's credit rating by two notches to 'Baa1' from 'A2' and maintained a negative outlook due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah in the region. Moody's said, " the primary factor driving this downgrade is their assessment that geopolitical risks have escalated to very high levels, with significant negative implications for Israel's creditworthiness in both the near and long term."

Moody's warned that the uncertainty surrounding Israel's security and long-term economic growth prospects is "much higher than typical for the Baa rating category," suggesting that slipping below this level would strip Israel of its investment-grade status. The agency added, "Should current tensions with Hezbollah escalate into full-blown conflict, further downgrades could occur, potentially multiple notches."

Musalem: Faster rate cuts may be appropriate if the labor market weakens further

On September 27th, ET, Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated in an interview that the US labor market has cooled somewhat in recent months. However, given low layoff rates and overall robust economic conditions, he maintains an optimistic outlook.

There is a possibility that the US economy may react "very strongly" to overly accommodative financial conditions, stimulating demand and prolonging the time needed to rein inflation back to the target rate of 2%. At present, the most critical step involves easing policy constraints gradually. It's essential to ensure that any relaxation occurs steadily.

Currently, the US business sector is in a “sound condition,” with commercial activities generally 'solid.' Large-scale job cuts do not appear imminent. Nevertheless, risks facing the Federal Reserve might necessitate quicker interest rate reductions.

Economic weakness could potentially surpass my current expectations, and labor market softening might exceed anticipated levels. Should this scenario unfold, a faster pace of rate cuts could prove appropriate. For me, the priority now lies in taking the foot off the brake gently – in other words, incrementally reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 14:00 Germany's Real Retail Sales MoM - June

UTC+8 20:00 Initial Annual CPI Rate for Germany in September

UTC+8 01:00 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the National Association for Business Economics

UTC+8 04:10 Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Glen

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BEA

Economic

Data Interpretation

On September 27, local time, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its latest PCE report:

Core PCE for August came in at an annual rate of 2%, compared to the expected reading of 2.5% and the previous reading of 2.6%.

Core PCE for August came in at a monthly rate of 0.1%, compared to the expected reading of 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.2%.

PCE for August came in at an annual rate of 2.2%, compared to the expected reading of 2.3% and the previous reading of 2.5%.

PCE for August came in at a monthly rate of 0.1%, compared to the expected reading of 0.1% and the previous reading of 0.2%.

The data indicates that the overall PCE price index in the U.S. increased by 2.2% YoY in August, marking the lowest level since February 2021, with a MoM rise of 0.1%, which aligns with market expectations. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.7% YoY, completely in line with market estimates, while the MoM growth was 0.1%, the lowest since May.

Breaking it down by components, personal income saw an increase of US$50.5 billion in August, representing a 0.2% MoM growth. Personal consumption expenditures rose by US$47.2 billion, also increasing by 0.2% MoM, with service expenditures up by US$54.8 billion and goods expenditures falling by US$7.6 billion.

In the services sector, the largest contributors to growth were housing, financial services, and insurance. Housing-related cost pressures persist, with a YoY increase of 0.5% in August, the largest rise since January. Overall service prices rose by 0.2%. In the goods sector, prices dropped by 0.2%, with the primary driver being a decrease in expenditure on new motor vehicles. Additionally, food prices increased by 0.1%, while energy prices fell by 0.8%.

In September, the Federal Reserve significantly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, officially commencing a new round of monetary easing. Given that PCE data, which is favored by the Fed as an inflation indicator, continued to show cooling in August, this is likely to bolster the Fed's confidence in further rate cuts. Following the data release, market expectations for substantial future interest rate reductions have intensified.

U.S. August PCE

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Forex

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Monday, pressured by month-end US Dollar (USD) demand from importers and likely interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, strong inflows and lower crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses.

Investors will focus on Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's speech on Monday, which might offer some insight and outlook on the US interest rate. Also, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index will be released. On the Indian docket, the August Federal Fiscal Deficit is due later in the day

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee softens as USD demand weighs heavily

The Indian rupee has remained largely stable against the USD in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59% so far.

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday that the Indian economy is estimated to grow at a rate of 6.5-7% in the current financial year on a steady-state basis.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, compared to 2.5% in July, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed on Friday. This figure was softer than the estimates of 2.3%.

The core PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.7% YoY in August, compared to the previous reading of 2.6%, in line with the consensus of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the core PCE Price Index increased by 0.1% in the same report period versus 0.2% prior.

University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.1 in September from 66.0 in August, better than the estimates of 69.3.

Interest rate futures contracts have priced in a nearly 54% chance of a half-point cut in November, versus a 46% possibility of a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR tests rectangle pullback, success could see upward resumption

The Indian Rupee trades softer on the day. According to the daily chart, the constructive bias of the USD/INR pair persists as the price holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further downside looks favorable as the RSI is located below the midline near 46.60.

The support-turned-resistance level at 83.75 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/INR. Further north, the next upside barrier emerges at the 84.00 psychological mark.

The potential support level is located at the 100-period EMA at 83.62. Any follow-through selling below this level will see a drop to 83.00, representing the psychological level and the low of May 24.

Source: FXSTREET

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NZ First Impressions: ANZ Business Confidence, September 2024

Key results (September 2024)

Japanese Yen Pauses Recent Rally Due to Dovish Comments from Upcoming PM Ishiba

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen receives downward pressure from doubts over BoJ policy outlook

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains above 142.00 after breaking below the ascending channel

Source: FXSTREET

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 30, 2024

Macro:

WTI Holds Position near $69.00 Due to Rising Supply Fears over Middle-east Conflict

Source: FXSTREET

September 30th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

U.S. August PCE: Inflation Cooled, Edging Closer to the Fed's Target

U.S. August PCE

USD/INR Gathers Strength as US Dollar Demand Weighs on Indian Rupee

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee softens as USD demand weighs heavily

Technical Analysis: USD/INR tests rectangle pullback, success could see upward resumption

Source: FXSTREET

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