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New Zealand’s GDP fell by 0.2% in the June quarter. The result wasn’t as weak as expected, and will ease concerns that the economy might have been taking a turn for the worse.
Quarterly change: -0.2% (last: +0.1%, Westpac f/c: -0.4%, market f/c: -0.4%, RBNZ -0.5%)
Annual change: -0.5% (Last +0.3%, Westpac f/c -0.6%, RBNZ -0.7%)
The New Zealand economy shrank by 0.2% in the June quarter. Estimated growth in the March quarter was trimmed back to a 0.1% rise (previously estimated to be up 0.2%), and there were modest revisions to earlier quarters that largely balanced out.
The 0.2% fall in production GDP was smaller than the 0.4% fall that we and the market were forecasting. Reinforcing that surprise, the less-followed expenditure measure of GDP was unchanged, and the income measure actually rose by 0.2% in real terms.
As we signalled in our preview, the performance across industries was a mixed bag. Retailing, wholesaling and forestry saw the most significant declines. On the positive side, manufacturing saw a strong 1.9% rise, and personal services such as healthcare and recreation held up better than we expected.
As Stats NZ had noted, changes in the timing of tobacco imports have disrupted the pattern of quarterly GDP to some degree, boosting growth in the March quarter and acting as a drag on growth this time.
On the expenditure measure of GDP, there were gains in household spending, government spending and business investment. Goods exports were the main drag on growth, falling back by 4.4% after a strong rise in the March quarter.
While still soft, these results come as something of a relief. Higher-frequency activity data had taken a marked turn lower in May and especially June, raising concerns that the New Zealand economy’s drawn-out slowdown could be entering a new, much tougher phase. However, not only has the monthly data improved somewhat in July and August, but in GDP terms the June quarter itself turned out to be no worse than what we’ve seen over the last couple of years.
We continue to expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR by 25bps each at the October and November reviews. While financial markets will no doubt fixate on the idea that the US Fed’s decision this morning has opened the door for 50bp rate cuts elsewhere, there isn’t much in the local data that argues for the RBNZ to step up the pace of easing beyond what it had already signalled in its August policy statement.
The Federal Reserve surprised the market yesterday by cutting the dollar rate by 0.5%, with expectations that a similar reduction might occur by the end of the year. The dollar initially dropped sharply following the announcement but then partially recovered after comments from Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair stated that the current decision would not dictate the pace for further rate cuts and should help maintain stability in the labour market under current conditions.
Major currency pairs reacted strongly to the Fed’s decision. The GBP/USD pair hit a new high for the year, dropping to 1.3100, while USD/JPY fell to 140.50 before strengthening by more than 200 pips. The USD/CAD pair managed to rise above 1.3600.
The USD/JPY pair is under dual pressure. On one side, the US regulator is aggressively cutting rates, while the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates after a long period of ultra-low rates. In such conditions, the pair experiences high volatility, with a daily range of 200 pips.
According to technical analysis, the pair is undergoing a corrective pullback after forming a “hammer” pattern on the daily timeframe. Currently, the rise is constrained by a significant resistance level at 144.00. The price has been testing this level for about two weeks, and if buyers fail to hold above it in the upcoming trading sessions, a return to 141.00-140.00 is possible.
Factors influencing USD/JPY include:
Today at 09:00 (GMT +3:00), the release of the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (US).
Today at 09:00 (GMT +3:00), the release of initial jobless claims in the US.
Tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT +3:00), the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy report.
Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair managed to break above 1.3600 and tested the key level of 1.3650. If buyers can maintain the 1.3600-1.3580 range as support, the corrective rise may continue towards 1.3800-1.3700. If the minimum of 1.3440 from yesterday is revisited, the downtrend may resume with renewed strength.
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