Source: AP

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record high above $3,017 an ounce as an escalation in Middle East tensions underscored its haven appeal, and investors weighed data that fueled concern the US economy is slowing down.

Bullion climbed 0.6% as Israel said it launched military strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, a move that threatens to undermine a shaky truce. Palestinian residents reported multiple airstrikes in several parts of the Gaza Strip.

Traders were also digesting US retail sales data released Monday, which rose less than forecast in February. While the figures pointed to weak spending on goods, there was no sign of a severe pullback and the data did little to alter traders’ bets on expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Still, companies, investors and economists remain cautious as consumer sentiment sours and signs of financial stress mount, amid risks of escalating trade wars sparked by US President Donald Trump.

The gloomier outlook for both the US and global economy has underscored bullion’s role as a store of value in uncertain times. The metal is up more than 14% so far this year, extending its strong annual advance in 2024. Several major banks have hoisted their price targets for this year higher in recent weeks.

While gold has further room to run, “$3,000 was a strong resistance” in the short term, said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Even though it’s broken marginally above this, it may not signal a decisive break,” said Menon, who sees bullion rising to $3,100 an ounce within twelve months.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Another Wall Street strategist is lowering her year-end target on the S&P 500 (^GSPC), citing economic growth concerns.

Following the S&P 500's recent 10% drawdown, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina lowered her year-end target to the S&P 500 to 6,200 from 6,600. Calvsina's revised outlook on the S&P 500 comes after both Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research lowered their targets last week.

"While we don’t believe that a pullback beyond the 10% drawdown that has already been sustained is inevitable, we do believe that the path for stocks between now and December has gotten rockier with stronger headwinds," Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday night.

A gloomier outlook on US economic growth from the RBC Capital Markets economics team contributed to the more subdued S&P 500 projection. RBC's economic forecasters now project the economy to grow 1.6% this year, down from a prior estimate of 2%. Calvsina noted that the stock market has often fallen in years when GDP is in a "sluggish" range of 1.1%-2%.

"Some economic forecasters around the Street have started to dial down their 2025 GDP forecasts, but are not calling for a recession," Calvasina wrote. "Historically, the dialing down of economic growth on its own presents a significant headwind for the stock market to overcome."

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin also highlighted a cut to GDP forecast from Goldman's economics team when moving his target to 6,200 from 6,500.

"Our revised estimates reflect the recently reduced GDP growth forecast of our US Economics team, a higher assumed tariff rate, and higher level of uncertainty that is typically associated with a greater equity risk premium," Kostin wrote.

With slower economic growth expected and several companies already trimming their first quarter forecasts, Calvasina now sees earnings per share for the S&P 500 ending 2025 at $264, lower than her team's prior projection of $271. Calvsina also projects a lower possible bear case, now seeing a potential scenario where the S&P ends 2025 at 5,550, down from a prior forecast of 5,775. The bear case would represent another 2% fall for the benchmark index from current levels.

For now, the new base case of 6,200 bakes in the idea that the S&P 500 has likely seen — or closed near —its lows for the year. But Calvasina's conviction on that call "isn't incredibly high."

Recent survey data, from both consumers and businesses, have deteriorated over the past several months as concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies have weighed on the market mood. For now, there hasn't been much feed-through from those so-called soft data points to hard data like the monthly jobs report.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Oil’s recent descent has prompted Goldman Sachs analysts to lower their price target for the year, in part due to expectations of softer economic growth amid President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

The firm reduced its December 2025 forecast for Brent by $5 (BZ=F) to $71 per barrel.

Brent prices have fallen more than 3% year-to-date. Initiatives by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and efforts for a potential nuclear agreement with Iran have eased supply worries. Meanwhile, some economists have cut their growth forecasts amid a string of disappointing data and uncertainty over Trump's tariff policies.

“The selloff mostly reflects a shift in market focus from downside risk to Russia and Iran supply to softer US GDP growth,” Goldman Sach’s Daan Struyven wrote.

Struyven and his team expect oil demand will grow less than expected “incorporating slower US GDP growth on higher tariffs.”

Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from all countries. The European Union responded with retaliatory levies against the US.

More US tariff plans are expected to be announce in early April.

Goldman Sachs analysts also anticipate higher OPEC+ supply next quarter.

Earlier this month futures fell after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) surprised Wall Street by announcing it would bump up production in April as a first step toward unwinding its production cuts.

On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) jumped around 1% to trade above $67 per barrel while Brent also gained roughly 1% to trade above $70.

The gain came after the US indicated it would continue to launch an offensive against Iranian backed Houthi rebels until their shipping attacks in the Red Sea stopped.

Source: Yahoo Finance