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It is time for the Federal Reserve to fulfill its statutory requirement by instituting the rulemaking described in this petition.
Bitcoin (BTC) first arrived more than three election cycles ago. Yet, the 2024 United States presidential election is the first time that Bitcoin (and crypto more generally) have come close to being regarded as a key election issue. The cult-like advocates for the ideals laid out in Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper have become an influential subset of single-issue voters, dedicated to the cause despite recent years being marred by a bear market and broader industry turmoil such as the collapse of the once-lauded crypto exchange FTX. Tides have recently turned for the industry and its supporters, with Bitcoin prices holding steady and institutions like BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, claiming that Bitcoin is this generation’s store of value. As the election race heats up, the question now remains: what role will this modern form of money play in the future of the world's most powerful economy?
According to the Fed, only 3% of the dollar’s original purchasing power remains in 2024, leading many developing economies to consider alternatives to the dollar for trade. There are also concerns that current monetary policy decisions being made to avoid recession could actually lead to hyperinflation of the dollar and economic decline. In recent years, the economy has oscillated between periods of explosive growth, catalyzed by loose monetary policy; and teetering on the brink of economic destruction exacerbated by the impending debt crisis. The rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts of the past few years have added further to this volatility.
Such chaos has contributed to an ever-increasing wealth gap, marked by an exponentially wealthier upper class and an erosion of the middle class. Since its emergence, Bitcoin has been regarded by many as a potential hedge against economic volatility for the middle class. Aspirationally, it’s the inflationary-resistant asset that can bring financial independence to the weakening middle class, but the dollar continues to underpin the global economy. The dollar has retained the trust of many retail investors despite its decreasing purchasing power.
Today, America finds itself balancing an unprecedented predicament: a weakening dollar on one hand and an asset with the potential to address many of the glaring financial issues that a squeezed middle class faces on the other. How the latter is discussed and addressed will have the greatest impact on what the world’s foremost economy will look like in 25 years.
Against this backdrop, here are four bold predictions on how this year’s election will impact the future of Bitcoin and digital assets in the United States.
Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has made few friends in the crypto community since taking over at his agency. While he has racked up some notable wins, his regulation-by-enforcement approach has also suffered losses in the courts. Former President Donald Trump has promised to “fire” Gensler should he be elected, but this has never actually happened before. Traditionally SEC chairs resign when there is a change in the White House during their term. If we see a win by Vice President Kamala Harris, it would be unsurprising for her administration to take a similar stance as her opponent in an attempt to get in the industry’s good graces. Change is in the air.
Bitcoin has largely acted as a commodity that sees inflows when US interest rates are lowered and capital becomes cheaper. Given that a Harris administration is likely to see a continuation of the current monetary policy and higher levels of government spending, the crypto market should hold steady and possibly climb. Conversely, a Trump victory would mean incentives for crypto companies to incubate in the US — which is something the country has been lacking. An argument could be made that under a Trump administration, a clearer regulatory framework will be forthcoming and, as a result, more opportunities within the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). Given DeFi ecosystems are largely built on Ethereum (ETH), a Trump administration is likely to benefit it and other layer-1 protocols.
While an electoral victory would allow Harris to formulate her own policy agenda, she has served three and a half years in an administration that has entertained the idea of a crypto-specific capital gains tax. Given the amount of capital that is set to flow into the asset class, it is hard to see a world in which the US government does not try to take its slice of the pie as crypto becomes embedded with traditional finance. Increased taxes seem less likely under a Trump administration given his platform has heavily professed the desire to “look out” for crypto diehards.
While Harris has been largely quiet about digital assets on the campaign trail — mentioning them only in passing alongside other emerging technology — Trump has been formally courting the “crypto vote.” The former president became the first and only president to attend the 2024 Bitcoin Nashville event this summer, where he famously stated the future of Bitcoin would be in the US and that he would “keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your Bitcoin.” He has also launched his own DeFi project, World Liberty Financial. If formal policy recommendations on cryptocurrencies and digital assets are to materialize ahead of the election, it’s likely they will come from the Trump campaign.
Change almost always takes far longer than expected and transpires differently than planned. Bitcoin is no different. The mission and message behind Bitcoin is perhaps the most powerful signal of liberating forces in centuries. However, the institutions that hold power are the ones that stand to lose the most if the core tenets of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are realized.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller has issued a stark warning about the future of the European gas market. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum, Miller highlighted the rising volatility in gas prices and the possibility of new price shocks and supply disruptions. He attributed these risks to Europe's ongoing "deindustrialization," a result of high energy prices that make European industries less competitive compared to global counterparts.
According to Miller, gas demand in the EU and the UK dropped by 11 billion cubic meters in the first nine months of 2024. Key sectors like steel, cement, and chemicals have been hit hard, with some industries seeing a 10% production decline over the past year and a half. The situation has forced many industrial enterprises to shut down or relocate production, particularly in Germany.
Miller also noted that energy costs in Europe are 2-3 times higher than in the U.S., while gas prices are 4-5 times higher. This cost disparity is making it difficult for European companies to remain competitive on the global stage.
Looking forward, Gazprom expects global gas demand to reach 5.7 trillion cubic meters by 2050, driven by population growth and digitalization. Most of this growth will come from countries like China, India, and Russia, with demand in the Global South also rising.
For the U.S., Miller pointed out a slowdown in gas production due to depleting shale deposits and rising domestic demand. Interestingly, the U.S. is increasing gas imports from Canada, indicating that even the world's largest producer of gas is facing supply challenges.
Miller emphasized that Russia sees new opportunities in partnerships with global organizations like BRICS, which could shape the future of the gas market.
Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently said that Russia was moving towards reducing its share of volatile income and reducing Russia’s dependence on oil and gas.
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