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A New Framework to Predict Probability of Monetary Policy Pivots.
Part three of the series presented four-quarters-out probabilities of the three growth scenarios of soft-landing, stagflation and recession. This installment develops a framework to employ those probabilities to predict monetary policy decisions. We follow two different paths to gauge the usefulness of our toolkit. The first method predicts monetary policy pivots, and the second approach forecasts the near-term level of the fed funds rate (a topic we’ll cover in the next installment).
We believe accurately predicting the timing of a policy pivot compliments the generation of the future potential path of the fed funds rate. By predicting the timing of a policy pivot, decision makers could anticipate the potential duration of the current stance, at least in theory. The prediction for the fed funds rate would shed light on how many rate cuts (a relevant discussion for the current cycle) are appropriate in the near future.
In our view, accurately predicting periods of monetary policy pivots is vital, as a rate cut that comes too late or too soon (a widely discussed topic in the present cycle) would be harmful to the economy and damage the FOMC’s reputation. Members of the FOMC have repeatedly acknowledged that their goal is to avoid a mistimed rate cut, whether it be too soon or too late. Some analysts suggested the March 2022 rate hike was too late, as the FOMC misjudged higher inflation as “transitory” and waited too long to act. By the same token, significant changes in the FOMC’s SEP (June 2023 vs. June 2024) made some analysts worry that the next policy pivot (which is expected to be a rate cut) may be mistimed as well.
We develop a new framework to quantify episodes of monetary policy pivots and present a probit regression to predict the probability of a policy pivot during the next two quarters. At present, the FOMC regularly meets eight times a year, with four meetings in the first half and four in the second half. Thereby, we set a two-quarters-out forecast horizon to predict the chances of a policy pivot during the next four meetings. Given the volatile nature of the economy during the post-pandemic era, a one-year-out prediction for a policy pivot would suffer lower accuracy, as the rapidly changing nature of potential risks would dictate a faster response from the FOMC, all else equal.
We define a policy pivot as a change in the FOMC’s rate decision compared to the past few meetings. There are two key elements in our definition of a policy pivot. The first is that the FOMC has a different rate decision than the past few meetings. The second condition is that the FOMC keep the stance for the next few meetings, at least. There are three rate decisions that have been utilized by the FOMC, at least in the post-1990 era. The FOMC either (a) raises the target of the fed funds rate, (b) keeps the rate unchanged or (c) reduces the rate (Figure 1).
Historically, once the FOMC adopts a policy stance (a rate hiking stance, for example), it keeps that stance for at least several meetings. In the post-1990 era, the shortest duration of a policy stance was about six months, which occurred in 1995. The FOMC raised the fed funds rate to 6.00% from 5.50% in February 1995, and then kept that rate (a rate pause) until its June meeting. The FOMC reduced the rate by 25 bps in July 1995.
We use these conditions to identify periods of policy pivots. The last policy pivot date was in August 2023, as that was the first month after the fed funds rate peaked at 5.50% in July 2023. After 13 consecutive months, the fed funds rate is still at 5.50%. Essentially, August 2023 marks the end of the rate hike stance that started in March 2022. If the FOMC cuts rates in September 2024, then that would be the next policy pivot, as it would be the start of a rate-cut cycle (a policy normalization stance). Of course, this is assuming the FOMC will adopt a rate-cut stance for the near future.
Our framework estimated that there are 26 episodes of policy pivots in the post-1990 period (for detail see Table 1). We concentrated on the post-1990 era, where the FOMC’s communications about policy decisions are more transparent and shared with the public in a timely matter. One example of the FOMC’s communications can be seen in the fed funds rate series, as the post-1990 data are smoother, and policy stances (from rate cuts to policy pauses, for example) can be identified with a reasonable confidence. (Figure 1)
By our definition, there are four types of policy pivots: (1) pause-to-cut, which is the start of a rate-cut stance, (2) cut-to-pause, which is the end of a rate-cut stance, (3) pause-to-hike, which is the start of a rate-hike stance and (4) hike-to-pause, which is the end of a rate-hike stance. There are eight episodes of pause-to-cut, six of cut-to-pause, seven of pause-to-hike and five of hike-to-pause. Most policy pivots in the post-1990 era included a pause stance (11 pivots are either cut-to-pause or hike-to-pause), while eight took an easing/rate-cut stance and seven took a tightening/rate-hike stance. Our forecast horizon is only two quarters out, therefore the type of policy pivot would be known to a forecaster. Thus, we only concentrate on predicting the timing of a policy pivot.
The major benefit of identifying periods of policy pivots is that we can build a regression to generate the probability of a policy pivot in the near future. For example, we identifed 26 episodes of policy pivots in the 1990-2024:Q2 period, and then we created a dummy variable where a value of one represents a pivot occurring and zero is otherwise. Using the dummy variable, a probit regression is developed to predict the two-quarters-out probability of a policy pivot. Part III of the series presented four-quarters-out probabilities of the three growth scenarios of soft-landing, stagflation and recession. We employ those probabilities as predictors of the probit regression.
Figure 2 shows the two-quarter-out probability of a policy pivot, and the bars represent actual periods of policy pivots (based on our framework; see Table 1 for detail about those pivots). Using the average probability of 35% as a threshold (dotted line in Figure 2), the framework accurately predicted all episodes of policy pivots in the post-1990 era.
As seen in Figure 2, the probability of a policy pivot started trending upward in Q2-2021 and breached the threshold in Q3-2021. The framework suggested starting a rate hike cycle sooner than Q1-2022, with a possibility of a rate hike in 2021. Neither the FOMC nor the Blue Chip consensus provide an explicit probability of a policy pivot, but the FOMC’s SEP and the Blue Chip consensus did not predict a rate hike in 2021 (i.e., no policy pivot in 2021). However, both forecasts did predict rate hikes in 2022. In retrospect, our framework would have helped decision makers determine appropriate timing for the rate-hike cycle back in 2021-2022.
The policy pivot probability jumped in Q2-2023 (from 34% to 42%), and then peaked in Q3-2023, which is consistent with the most recent policy pivot of Q3-2023—a hike-to-pause pivot. Q4-2023 and Q1-2024 noted a declining trend (but still above the threshold line) which may have cautioned analysts that a policy pivot to rate cuts were potentially further away. The latest probability (Q2-2024) of 43% indicates that a rate cut cycle may start soon (within the next two quarters), which is consistent with financial markets participants’ expectations for the upcoming September FOMC meeting. Given the historical accuracy of our framework, we believe the toolkit would provide useful insights for decision makers, as it can be updated in real time to gauge the likely duration of the upcoming easing cycle.
In summary, the latest probability (Q2-2024) of 43% indicates that a rate cut cycle may start soon (within the next two quarters), which is consistent with both the FOMC and Blue Chip forecasts, as they are also predicting a policy pivot in 2024.
FOMC members provide their near-term (as well as long-run) fed funds rate forecast. The June 2024 SEP suggests one 25 bps rate cut in 2024 and four more cuts throughout 2025. The FOMC employs its fed funds forecast (along with their other forecasts) to signal its near-term policy stance. In the short run, significant changes in the forecast would send undesirable signals and raise questions about the accuracy of the fed funds forecast. Therefore, in our view, accurately predicting the near-term path of the fed funds rate is vital for effective policymaking as well as policy communication. The next installment of the series will present a new approach to predict the fed funds rate two-quarters-out (up to four FOMC meetings ahead).
Table 1
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers following an intraday slide to the 185.80 area and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 187.25-187.30 region, just below a one-week high touched on Tuesday, though the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of this week's bounce from the vicinity of the monthly low.
The British Pound (GBP) rallies across the board following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which fueled expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) would hold rates steady and acted as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross. In fact, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) accelerated to the 3.6% YoY rate in August from 3.3% previous.
Adding to this, the UK August Services CPI inflation climbed 5.6% during the reported period as compared to the 5.2% in July and the headline print held steady at 2.2%. This, in turn, raises hopes that the BoE's rate-cutting cycle is more likely to be slower than in the United States (US) and the Eurozone. The upside for the GBP/JPY cross, however, remains capped as traders seem reluctant ahead of the key central bank event risks.
The BoE is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday and the market pricing suggests a little chance of an interest rate cut, though the possibility of a reduction in November remains on the table. The focus will then shift to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Friday, which will play a key role in influencing demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the GBP/JPY cross.
Hence, a strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom around the 183.70-183.75 region, or a one-month low touched last Wednesday. Nevertheless, the GBP/JPY cross, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak ahead of the BoE and the BoJ meetings. In the meantime, the critical Fed decision might infuse some volatility and produce short-term opportunities.
India will drive up to 35% of global energy demand growth over the next 20 years, petroleum minister Hardeep Puri said at the Gastech conference that started on Tuesday in Houston.
“If you say that global demand is increasing by one percent, ours is increasing by three times that,” Puri said. “In the next two decades, 35% of the increase in global demand will come from India.”
At the same time, the official said that India wants to succeed with the energy transition as well. “We will manage and succeed…on the green transition,” Puri said. “That’s the part with which I am most satisfied.”
India is already one of the biggest drivers of energy demand growth and a top energy importer. Earlier this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that the country’s industrial expansion and energy demand was going to drive a threefold increase in natural gas demand.
In 2022, India’s natural gas consumption amounted to 7.0 billion cubic feet per day, with over 70% of the demand coming from the industrial sector. By 2050, India’s natural gas consumption is set to more than triple to 23.2 Bcf/d, according to EIA’s estimates.
Oil demand on the subcontinent is also on the rise, which has prompted plans to boost refining capacity significantly. At the end of last year, the country’s petroleum ministry announced plans to expand refining capacity by 1.12 million bpd every year until 2028.
Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year, which is equal to around 5.8 million bpd, according to these plans.
Yet India is also eager to take part in the energy transition. It already has ambitious targets, seeing 500 gigawatts of renewables capacity installed by 2030, compared to around 153 GW capacity now.
Earlier this month, Renewable Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that a number of banks had pledged a total of $386 billion in investment commitments to help India boost its renewable energy industry.
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