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In the world of mankind, there will not be a statement without any position, nor a remark without any purpose.
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
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I have 5 years of experience in financial analysis, especially in aspects of macro developments and medium and long-term trend judgment. My focus is maily on the developments of the Middle East, emerging markets, coal, wheat and other agricultural products.
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History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves; Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut; Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue.
The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps. The markets were surprised with the US dollar suffering the most. Both the accompanying policy statement and the press conference were relatively balanced as Chairman Powell tried very carefully to avoid scaring the market by talking down the US economy.
The Fed is probably on a preset course, despite Powell advertising the meeting-by-meeting approach shared by other central banks. The dot plot revealed two additional 25bps rate cuts penciled in by Fed members for 2024, slightly below market expectations for another 72bps of easing this year. What does history tell us about the timing and size of the second Fed cut?
Continuing from a previous special report where six easing cycles were identified since 2000, table 1 below presents the details of the Fed’s first and second rate cuts. As made evident, Fed members decided to cut rates again at the next scheduled meeting in four of the six examined cycles, increasing the possibility for a November 7 rate move.
Interestingly, Fed decisions varied from a 100bps rate cut in 2020, during the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, to just 25bps moves in 2002, 2007 and 2019, when the US economy was not falling off a cliff. Also, the time between the first and the second Fed rate cuts fluctuated from just 13 days in 2020 to almost 8 months in 2002, as the Fed traditionally tries to act appropriately in order to meet its dual mandate.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for November 7, two days after the US presidential election day. Quite possibly, the result of the election might not be yet finalized, especially if the Republican presidential candidate is losing the battle. This raises the possibility of the Fed refraining from announcing another rate cut until the new president is declared. However, the market is convinced that the November rate cut is a done deal, and it is even assigning a sizeable 43% probability for another 50bps move.
Chart 1 below presents the performance of key market assets in the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts. Interestingly, dollar/yen dropped by an average of 1.5% in the last five easing cycles, a performance that could repeat this time around as the Bank of Japan is still open to further rate hikes in 2024.
Similarly, US treasury yields tend to fall in the examined time period, with one grave exception. In 2008, yields rose by 20bps as the US administration borrowed heavily from the bond market in order to fund its relief programmes.
As seen in chart 1 below, the remaining assets exhibit a relatively mixed performance. However, digging through the results there is a common pattern emerging in pound/dollar, S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil price. In periods of distress like 2008 and 2020, these four key assets tend to drop aggressively. For example, the S&P 500 index fell by 5.6% and 20.6% respectively in these two instances, and WTI oil prices collapsed.
In periods of normal economic conditions, like the current situation, the Fed has traditionally opted for a more relaxed approach in terms of its rate cuts. As a result, in 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2019, pound/dollar, S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil exhibited a stronger tendency to rally. More specifically, the S&P 500 index increased by an average of 2.4% in these four periods, while both gold and WTI oil showed a decent appetite for double-digit jumps.
Putting everything together, dollar/yen and the 10-year US treasury yield tend to decrease in the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts. The performance of other key assets like pound/dollar, the S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil depends on the underlying economic conditions. As such, in both 2008 and 2020 these assets dropped aggressively, while during the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts in 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2019, they recorded strong gains.
Colombia wants to fuel its transition away from oil and gas with an investment plan worth $40 billion that should replace revenues from hydrocarbon exports.
These are expected to decline after the Colombian government stopped issuing new drilling permits two years ago, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s environment minister as saying the money would be spent on what the publication called “nature-based climate solutions”, along with low-carbon energy, transport electrification, agricultural practices improvement projects, and projects for biodiversity protection.
“All of this is a huge economic transformation,” the official, Susana Muhamad said. “The portfolio of investments is around developing sectors that we think could start replacing oil revenues.” She added that there were hopes at least $10 billion for the investment pot would come from international institutions and developed countries.
Back in 2022, when he came to power, Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro pledged to shift Colombia’s economy away from oil, coal, and gas, in favour of lower-carbon energy alternatives. At last year’s COP28, Petro became the first leader of a large energy producer to vow phasing out hydrocarbons endorsing a call for something called a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Also at COP28, Petro announced Colombia’s transition policy, which at the time had a price tag of $32 billion. Based on the latest announcement by his environment minister the price of the transition has gone up, which reflects cost troubles in the low-carbon industries.
Despite the bold climate plans, Colombia remains highly reliant on hydrocarbon energy. Earlier this year, a decline in gas production threatened electricity supply shortages, forcing the government to consider LNG imports.
Colombia is also a large exporter of coal and oil, and it would take quite an effort to change that and replace lost revenues with new sources of state income. Meanwhile, the energy ministry plans to boost oil production in the country to 1 million barrels daily, from about 800,000 bpd this year.
Fintech giants Robinhood and Revolut are eyeing the stablecoin market, as new regulations in Europe promise to deliver regulatory clarity and impact crypto-native companies’ market share.
According to a Sept. 26 Bloomberg report citing unnamed sources, both Robinhood and Revolut are considering issuing their own stablecoins as the industry continues to expand.
The stablecoin market has been largely dominated by Tether’s USDt . The stablecoin issuer has benefited from the broader macroeconomic landscape and crypto market turbulence over the past two years, including banking crises and regulatory crackdowns on firms in the United States.
USDt, which is pegged to the US dollar, gained more than 20% market share during the period and now controls over 75% of the entire stablecoin market.
Tether’s market share growth has translated into more revenue. The stablecoin issuer reported record-breaking profits of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024, as well as a larger stockpile of US government bonds to back its reserves. According to Bloomberg, this business model is encouraging more players to enter the stablecoin market.
Despite Bloomberg’s reporting, Robinhood and Revolut have not confirmed whether they plan to enter the stablecoin arena.
The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, introduced in 2023, will significantly impact the stablecoin market. The MiCA implementation on stablecoins was divided into two phases.
The first, which ended on June 30, imposed rules on reserve requirements, transparency and transaction volume caps, leading some exchanges like Binance and Kraken to start reviewing stablecoin offerings ahead of the new rules.
The second phase takes effect on Dec. 30 and applies to crypto-asset service providers, bringing broader regulations for exchanges, wallets and other service companies.
Under the regulation, stablecoins — also referred to as “asset-referenced tokens” or “electronic money tokens” — face strict rules, such as daily transaction volume caps of $200 million for payments.
Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, has criticized the European regulation, citing a requirement that 60% of stablecoin reserves be held in cash deposits at multiple banks.
“Very few banks accept this type of business in Europe. It’s already very difficult to get just one!” Ardoino noted in an interview.
According to Ardoino, the company does not intend to be regulated under MiCA.
In contrast, Circle — the company behind the USD Coin (USDC) — recently announced its Euro-backed stablecoin, EURC, which is adapting to the new framework.
US retailer Costco Wholesale is taking a wide variety of steps to prepare for possible strikes next week at US ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, the company’s chief executive said on Sept 26.
Contingency plans in place include pre-shipping some products to get in holiday goods early and preparing to use different ports, Costco’s CEO Ron Vachris said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.
Companies that rely on ocean shipping are increasingly worried the International Longshoremen’s Association’s 45,000 members will strike on Oct 1 and close 36 ports that handle more than half of US ocean trade of products such as bananas, meat, prescription drugs, auto parts, construction materials and apparel.
If that happens, delays and costs could quickly cascade, threatening the US economy in the weeks ahead of the country’s presidential election, burdening already taxed global ocean shipping networks and foisting higher prices on consumers over time.
“We’ve cleared the ports, we’ve pre-shipped. We’ve done several different things that we could to get holiday goods in ahead of this time frame, and looked at alternate plans that we could execute with moving goods to different ports and coming across the country if needed,” Mr Vachris said.
Asked about bringing in goods early, he said, “We have done a little bit of everything you spoke about,” and added, “It could be disruptive, but how impactful, I can’t tell you... until we know what could happen out there.”
A prolonged strike could result in shortages of familiar items such as bananas, coffee and cocoa, which could translate to higher grocery prices over time.
It could also mean lost export sales of key agricultural products including beef, pork, chicken and eggs.
The continued denial of a state for the Palestinian people threatens the security of Israelis and Jews everywhere, the European Council president told the UN General Assembly on Thursday.
Charles Michel said the EU is working hard toward achieving an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and Israel’s security cannot come at the cost of regional peace.
“We want an immediate ceasefire in accordance with the order of the International Court of Justice. The EU is working for a lasting peace within the framework of a two-state solution living freely side by side and in safety,” he added.
“Freedom and solidarity — it’s under these same principles that we condemn the abominable terrorist attacks by Hamas (on Oct. 7 last year).
“Israel has the right to defend itself in accordance with international law and within the principle of proportionality, but ensuring security while neglecting peace is an illusion. There will never be lasting security without peace.
“The Palestinian people have the right to their state. Denying them this right will indefinitely fuel threats to the security of Israelis and of Jews everywhere.”
Remaining on the topic of regional crises, Michel called the conflict in Sudan a “huge humanitarian catastrophe.”
He said the EU will continue its efforts to pressure the warring parties in the country and those who support them to respect humanitarian and international law.
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