USD/CAD moves sideways around 1.3510 during European hours on Thursday. Analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish bias for the USD/CAD pair, as the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned below the 14-day EMA.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the 30 level, confirming the overall bearish trend in play but also suggesting a potential correction soon.

The momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a downward trend for the USD/CAD pair, as the MACD line is positioned below the centreline. However, the MACD line may crossover above the signal line, suggesting a potential weakening of the bearish trend.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair tests the psychological level of 1.3500. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias and push the pair to navigate the region around the seven-month low at 1.3441, recorded on August 28.

In terms of resistance, the immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA at 1.3521 level, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.3546 level. A breakthrough above these EMAs could weaken the bearish bias and lead the pair to test the "throwback support turns into a pullback resistance" level at 1.3590, followed by the psychological level of 1.3600.

Source: FXSTREET

Shell has alleged that LNG producer Venture Global had wrongfully earned $3.5 billion from selling cargos from long-term contracts on the spot market instead.

According to a Financial Times report, Shell had commissioned a study “to assess how much more revenue Venture Global wrongfully earned by denying certain European customers their contracted cargoes”.

Shell did not stop there, however. It went on to allege that Venture Global had caused serious LNG sourcing difficulties for one company that had to resort to sourcing the gas from five other U.S. producer, incurring additional costs of $1.5 billion, the FT report also said. The report identified Poland’s state energy company Orlen as the one most exposed to Venture Global’s tactics.

The supermajor is one of several companies suing Venture Global for failing to deliver cargos contracted under long-term agreements and instead selling the gas on the spot market, using a loophole that allows it to trade on the spot market before its facility is officially finalized. Venture Global has been seeking to extend the construction period for its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant.

Once the Calcasieu Pass facility is officially recognized as completed and fully operational, Venture Global would need to start servicing its long-term contracts with Shell, BP, and Spain’s Repsol.

The three supermajors, along with two other European energy companies, were foundation buyers for the Calcasieu Pass facility, meaning they provided Venture Global with the money to build the place in Louisiana in exchange for a commitment from the company to supply them with certain volumes of LNG over a long-term period.

The facility has a capacity of 10 million tons, and it started producing in early 2022—right on time for Europe, which was beginning to experience a shortage. But instead of honoring its contracts with the European buyers, Venture Global chose to sell more LNG on the spot market.

Source: OILPRICE

Source: EuroNews

KEY POINTS

WTI attracts some buyers on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through.

Demand concerns overshadow hopes for OPEC+ output hike delay.

The technical setup still seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices trade with a mild positive bias, just above the $69.00/barrel mark during the early European session on Thursday, albeit lack bullish conviction. The commodity remains well within the striking distance of the YTD low, around the $68.45 region touched the previous day and seems vulnerable to prolonging its downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so. 

Reports that OPEC+ is discussing delaying its oil output increase scheduled to start in October turn out to be a key factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. Apart from this, a subdued US Dollar (USD) demand further benefits the USD-denominated commodity. That said, persistent demand worries in China – the world's largest oil importer – and renewed fears about an economic downturn in the US act as a headwind for the commodity. This, along with a bearish technical setup, warrants some caution before confirming that the black liquid has formed a near-term bottom. 

Crude Oil prices have been trending lower along a downward-sloping channel since early Jul. Adding to this, the commodity this week broke down through the $71.50 horizontal support. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside and any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to get sold into, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for a further appreciating move. 

From current levels, the $69.80 region, closely followed by the $70.00 psychological mark, might act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, just below the $71.00 round figure. The subsequent move up could confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the aforementioned support breakpoint, now turned resistance, near the $71.50 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should trigger a short-covering rally, which should allow Crude Oil prices to surpass the $72.50 intermediate resistance and aim to reclaim the $73.00 mark.

On the flip side, the YTD low, around the $68.45 region, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $68.00 mark and the descending channel support, currently pegged near the $67.70-$67.65 area. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag Crude Oil prices to sub-$67.00 levels, or June 2023 swing low.

Source: FXSTREET

As the incoming Asean chairman in 2025, Malaysia is committed to accelerating the clean energy transition, and will work on strengthening regional cooperation and enhancing connectivity across the region’s energy systems.

By doing so, Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof, who is also the Minister of Energy Transition and Water Transformation, said Asean could make significant strides towards a sustainable and resilient energy future for all member states.

“Malaysia recognises that initiatives aimed at integrating our energy systems and advancing the use of renewable and low-carbon energy sources such as the Asean Power Grid and Trans-Asean Gas Pipeline will be prominent drivers for our collective energy future,” he said at the Indonesia International Sustainability Summit (ISF) on Thursday.

In his address titled “Green Industry: Advancing Low Carbon Energy Sources”, Fadillah expressed satisfaction with the region’s progress in cooperation, highlighting the Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) as a key framework for driving the region’s low-carbon transition.

Speaking to reporters later, Fadillah highlighted Malaysia’s commitment to reducing its carbon footprint, improving energy efficiency and boosting renewable energy to create a greener industry.

Malaysia aims to raise its renewable energy capacity to at least 70% of its power generation mix, from the current 27%, by enhancing the deployment of renewable energy, leveraging natural resources, strategic location, and technological advancements.

Key focus areas include solar energy, supported by initiatives like the large-scale solar programme and net energy metering scheme, as well as hydropower projects in East Malaysia and mini-hydro developments in West Malaysia.

“Malaysia plans to invest in biomass and biogas technologies to diversify its renewable energy portfolio and promote a circular economy,” he said.

Fadillah joined several ministers from various countries at the ISF, with the theme “Towards Sustainable and Inclusive Growth”, which was officiated by Indonesian President Joko Widodo.

The forum, attended by over 8,000 participants, discussed topics such as the green economy, energy transition, biodiversity and nature conservation, sustainable living, and the blue economy.

Fadillah is expected to attend a gala dinner with approximately 500 invited guests at the National Monument area, hosted by Indonesian Vice President Maruf Amin on Thursday evening.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Silver price extends its upside as recent data increase the odds of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.

CME FedWatch Tool shows the bets of a 50 basis points rate cut have risen to 41.0%.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasizes that the Fed must not maintain a restrictive policy stance for too long.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around $28.40 per troy ounce during Thursday’s European hours. The non-yielding assets like Silver could advance further as weak US manufacturing and labor market data spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more aggressively to avert an economic downturn.

July's US JOLTS Job Openings came in below expectations, signaling a further slowdown in the labor market. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that factory activity contracted for the fifth straight month.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has risen to 41.0%, up from 34.0% a week ago.

Traders now await US ISM Services PMI and Initial Jobless Claims scheduled to be released on Thursday. Attention will shift to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to gain more cues on the potential size of an expected rate cut by the Fed this month.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed is in a favorable position but added that they must not maintain a restrictive policy stance for too long, per Reuters. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Bostic’s words as neutral with a score of 4.6.

Source: FXSTREET