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Crude oil is trading flat this morning as the market remains cautious amid the developing situation in the Middle East, although demand concerns remain. Meanwhile, a constructive report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) supports sentiments in the immediate term.
NYMEX WTI hovered near $70/bbl while ICE Brent was trading just below $75/bbl this morning as market participants await fresh updates from the Middle East. Meanwhile, market outlooks released by OPEC and IEA this week suggested sluggish demand and a sizable supply surplus for the next year, which is keeping pressure on oil prices.
API numbers released overnight were somewhat constructive for the oil market. The institute reported that US crude oil inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels over the last week, in contrast to the market expectations of a build of 1.5m barrels. The API also reported large inventory draws for products, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 5.9m barrels and 2.7m barrels respectively. The more widely followed EIA report will be released later today.
Recent reports suggest Iran encountered an oil leak yesterday near its top export terminal in the Persian Gulf. The leak happened on subsea pipelines close to the Kharg Island export terminal. However, the cause of the incident and its impact on exports are still not clear, while authorities have already started efforts to contain the leak.
US natural gas prices continued the bearish trend yesterday. The front-month Henry Hub contract declined more than 5% to settle at US$2.37/MMBtu yesterday amid unfavourable weather conditions. The latest weather forecasts suggest that temperatures have shifted warmer for most of the US, signalling weakening demand for the power-plant fuel. The EIA will release its weekly US natural gas storage report today and expectations are that natural gas inventories increased by around 77.5Bcf over the last week. Total US storage stands at 3,629Bcf, 5.1% above the five-year average as of 4 October.
Meanwhile, European gas prices also came under pressure on reports of stronger LNG flows. Recent data from Bloomberg suggests that flows from terminals that import liquefied natural gas in northwest Europe rose to the highest level since April earlier this week. An unusually mild autumn across Europe could also weigh on the gas demand for heating purposes over the next few days. Meanwhile, European storage remains higher at 95% full as of 15 October, above the five-year average of 92%.
Industrial metals edged lower while iron ore fell towards a three-week low this morning despite China’s latest efforts to boost support for its struggling property sector. In its latest briefing, China announced it will expand the “white list” of housing projects eligible for bank financing and increase bank spending for such development to 4 trillion yuan. In January, China announced a plan for a "white list" of projects that can receive financing to ensure that developers can complete construction and deliver homes to buyers. In a briefing this morning, the Minister of Housing announced they will expand urban redevelopment to help absorb housing inventories. The housing minister also said that the property market has started to “bottom out”. However, the market was somewhat disappointed that no new stimulus measures were announced.
Spot gold prices hovered near record highs in the early trading session today as market participants await the release of US economic data points later today. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the US presidential elections, which are less than three weeks away, continues to support safe-haven demand.
France’s Agriculture Ministry estimated French soft wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 10mt, slightly lower than the previous estimates of 10.1mt. The downward revision in export estimates could be largely attributed to a 61% decline in sales outside the EU nations. Soft wheat stockpiles are seen at 2.5mt, down from earlier estimates of 2.75mt. As for corn, export estimates were increased from 4.5mt to 4.7mt, while inventories were seen at 2.4mt (vs previous estimates of 2.6mt) for the period.
Recent estimates from the UK’s Agriculture Board show that wheat production in the nation is expected at 11.1mt in 2024, down from 14mt seen last season. This was also 21% below the five-year average. The decline in production will mean the country is more reliant on imports than usual this season.
EUR/USD exhibits weakness near 1.0850 on Thursday. The major currency pair faces sharp selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.
Traders expect the ECB to reduce its Rate on Deposit Facility further by 49 basis points (bps) in the remaining two meetings this year, according to a note from Citi on Tuesday, suggesting that there will be two rate cuts of 25 bps on Thursday and in December.
A quarter-to-a-percentage rate cut on Thursday will be the second in a row, pushing the deposit facility rate lower to 3.25%. A dovish decision from the ECB is widely anticipated as the Eurozone economy appears to be on the path of an economic slowdown, with price pressures seeming under control.
With high confidence in the ECB to reduce interest rates again, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference to get fresh cues about the likely monetary policy action in December.
Christine Lagarde is expected to talk more about reviving economic growth as the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) has decelerated to 1.8% in September, according to flash estimates. The latest economic projections from the German economic ministry showed that the nation is expected to conclude the year with a decline in the overall output by 0.2%.
EUR/USD extends its losing streak for the fourth trading day on Thursday. The major currency pair declines to a more than 10-week low near 1.0850 as the US Dollar (USD) has performed strongly in the past few weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 103.60, the highest level seen in over two months.
The Greenback remains firm as traders have priced out expectations of the continuation of hefty rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing speculation of former US President Donald Trump’s victory in presidential elections, scheduled on November 5.
Market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates moderately in the remainder of the year as fears of a United States (US) economic slowdown have been subsided by robust growth in the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for September.
Meanwhile, Trump’s victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to result in higher tariffs on imports from Asian and European peers, tax cuts, and loosening financial conditions that will benefit the US Dollar.
On the economic front, investors will focus on the US monthly Retail Sales data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect Retail Sales to have grown by 0.3%.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD weakens to 1.0850
EUR/USD slides further to near 1.0850 in European trading hours. The major currency pair extends its downfall after breaking below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0900, earlier this week.
The downside move in the shared currency pair started after a breakdown of the Double Top formation on a daily timeframe near the September 11 low at around 1.1000, which resulted in a bearish reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives below 30.00, indicating a strong bearish momentum.
On the downside, the major could find support near the round-level figure of 1.0800 and upward-sloping trendline at 1.0750, which is plotted from the October 3 low around 1.0450. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA and the psychological figure of 1.1000 will be the key resistances for the pair.
Shinhan Securities and Woori Bank implemented strengthened internal control measures in a long-overdue effort to appease the authorities and the public after intense criticism stemming from a slew of questionable business practices and employee misconduct, market watchers said Thursday.
Many say the ongoing wave of financial irregularities necessitates the prompt and full implementation of strengthened accountability measures for financial firm CEOs and executives, as mandated by the revised law on “accountability charts.” These charts clearly outline the major roles and responsibilities of management.
Nevertheless, large financial entities will be able to remain unscathed by the revision for the time being, since firms with assets exceeding 5 trillion won ($3.7 billion) are granted a one-year grace period after its implementation on July 3.
According to the industry, the financial investment entity of Shinhan Financial Group established an emergency risk response team to enhance oversight of decision-making processes at every level.
The rushed move followed the firm’s falsely registered swap transactions from August to early this month, a part of an attempted cover-up of a 130 billion won loss in futures trading around the Aug. 5 market freefall.
Central to the problem was that the entity's profit-taking activity — while technically not illegal — exceeded its mandate as a liquidity provider (LP) in the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) market.
The fraudulent activity was uncovered during a quarterly settlement of the company's accounting last month and has since been reported to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
The financial watchdog dispatched a team of inspectors to the firm’s headquarters, Monday, and sent requests for in-house reviews to 26 local brokerages and asset management companies.
The 130 billion won figure significantly exceeds the total losses incurred by local brokerages over the past seven years.
According to Rep. Kang Min-kuk of the National Assembly's National Policy Committee, securities firms reported a total of 111.3 billion won in malpractice-related losses, including employee embezzlement and misuse of corporate funds, across 47 incidents from 2018 to August of this year.
The latest development deals a heavy blow to the Shinhan subsidiary’s reputation, undercutting its efforts to lead organizational reforms to better aligning with the government’s push for strengthened internal controls. The firm has yet to shed a negative brand image from its deep involvement in the Lime fund redemption fiasco in 2020.
The firm established a compliance department last year to enhance risk management. It was the first among industry leaders to seek the assistance of a consulting firm in drafting the accountability chart.
Last year, a Shinhan Securities employee was found to have embezzled 1 billion won during the establishment of a special purpose company.
Meanwhile, the bank subsidiary of Woori Financial Group said Tuesday that a total of 14 bank employees will begin master’s degrees programs next year in fields including compliance, risk management and information security at graduate schools.
Woori Bank extended 35 billion won in improperly granted loans to the relative of former group chair Son Tae-seung. Several bank employees have embezzled a combined total of tens of billions of won over the past few years.
Copper and iron ore futures are down this morning, and the AUDUSD – though better bid after yesterday’s selloff below the 100-DMA, sees resistance near this level. Crude oil, on the other hand, remains under pressure a touch above the $70pb despite a surprise decline in US oil inventories last week, according to the latest API release. China’s inability to cheer investors up and the fading worries that Israel will attack the Iranian oil facilities, combined with a deteriorating global demand outlook suggest that it’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when and by how much US crude will sink below the $70pb level. The bearish oil outlook remains supportive of a softer Loonie against the greenback, along with the softening price pressures in Canada. Released yesterday, the latest CPI report revealed that inflation in Canada eased faster than expected in September and the headline figure now stands near 1.6% – backing further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BoC) to support the economy.
In the US, the unexpected fall in NY Empire manufacturing index gathered little attention yesterday. The US dollar index extended gains above the 100-DMA, as Cable slipped below the 1.30 level after inflation report in Britain came in softer than expected and boosted the Bank of England (BoE) doves’ expectation of rate cuts in Britain. The sterling bears are now testing the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a few pips below the 1.30 mark, to reverse the April to September positive trend and send the pair into a medium-term bearish consolidation zone.
Across the Channel, the EURUSD took out the 200-DMA support yesterday and extended losses to 1.0850 level ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The ECB is expected to lower its rates by another 25bp as the headline Eurozone inflation eased below the bank’s 2% target in September and the Eurozone economies are struggling to keep their head above water. Germany, once the zone’s growth engine, is thought to be in mild recession, its car factories are suffering the Chinese EV competition – and will likely be heavily hit by the European tariffs on Chinese EVs that will fire back on the European carmakers. Its iconic VW already announced factory closures, and even ASML, which was the proxy of the AI trade in Europe, is not doing well after it confessed that orders are looking weak into 2025 due to a delayed recovery in chip industry – concerning other than AI chips, and the European luxury brands – which are among the biggest European companies – are heavily hit by the fading Chinese/Asian spending. LVMH erased all gains triggered by the Chinese stimulus optimism of late September and is back to the down-trending trend building since March this year. Under these circumstances, the ECB could safely deliver another 25bp cut today and hint at more rate cuts to come. The only thing that could held the ECB officials back from sounding overly dovish is persistent core and services inflation in the region. The ECB members will likely remain cautious regarding that metric to make sure that the rate cuts don’t happen faster than the music. But in fine, the Eurozone needs financial relief and inflation’s trajectory, both in the Eurozone and away, are supportive of further monetary policy easing.
The market’s reaction to ECB decision and the post-decision presser could be mixed. A rate cut today, a dovish message from the ECB and another 25bp cut in December are already widely priced in. Lagarde’s tone at the post-decision press conference will play a crucial role in determining whether the euro will further weaken against the dollar. We could see a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction to today’s decision if Lagarde highlights risks regarding the softening inflation. If the ECB does not convey strong confidence that today’s rate cut is merely a midpoint in a series of reductions, the EURUSD may experience a rebound from its near-overbought conditions. But any potential price rallies will likely see a solid resistance near the 1.0980 level, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on April to September to rebound, and keep the pair within the medium-term bearish consolidation zone for further depreciation in the medium run. Paradoxically, the Stoxx 600 index is trading near an ATH level as the cyclical nature of the European stocks fuelled by lower global rate prospects have been boosting appetite for European companies since a year now. Whether the European stock bulls will survive to what could be a gloomy earnings season is yet to be seen.
In the US, however, the earnings season is going quite well, as Morgan Stanley also announced better-than-expected earnings and closed the march for big banks on a positive note. The S&P500 consolidates near record.
USD/CAD gains ground due to solid US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the fading likelihood of further bumper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following strong US labor and inflation data. The USD/CAD pair trades around 1.3770 during the early European hours on Thursday.
Market expectations are leaning toward a total of 125 basis points (bps) in rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over the next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 92.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Traders await the US Retail Sales data, scheduled to be released later in the day. Expectations are for monthly consumer spending to increase by 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in the previous reading.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under pressure as Canada's latest inflation report for September has reignited expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) next week. The annual inflation rate dropped to 1.6% in September, the lowest since February 2021, falling below the central bank's 2% target.
Additionally, Standard Chartered's Research report anticipates that the BoC will implement a 50 basis point rate cut, rather than the previously expected 25 bps, at both of its remaining meetings in 2024. Slowing economic growth, declining inflation, rising inflation expectations, and swelling mortgage costs are contributing to the case for deeper cuts. The forecast now sees the BoC's policy rate at 3.25% by the end of 2024 and 2.25% by the end of 2025, down from prior estimates of 3.75% and 3.0%, respectively.
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be announced following the October monetary policy meeting at 12:15 GMT on Thursday.
ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference will follow, beginning at 12:45 GMT, where she will deliver the prepared statement on monetary policy and respond to media questions. The ECB announcements are likely to ramp up the Euro (EUR) volatility.
Following the September policy meeting, the ECB decided to lower the interest rate on the marginal lending facility to 3.9% from 4.5% and the deposit facility, also known as the benchmark interest rate, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5%. The ECB also cut the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 60 bps to 3.65%.
The ECB is widely expected to lower the deposit facility rate by another 25 bps to 3.25% after the October meeting.
In the post-meeting press conference, President Lagarde refrained from offering any clues regarding the timing of the next rate cut, saying that there was a relatively short time to the October meeting and adding that they have no commitment of any kind.
However, after the data published by Eurostat showed that the annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) softened to 1.8% in September from 2.2% in August, investors started to lean toward an additional policy-easing step in October.
According to Reuters, over 90% of economists polled expect a 25 bps cut after September's inflation dipped below the ECB’s target of 2%. Furthermore, most of those surveyed expect another 25 bps reduction in key rates in December.
Previewing the October ECB event, “data has rapidly moved against the ECB's September messaging, and we and the market now expect a 25bps rate cut at the October meeting,” said TD Securities analysts.
“Governing Council members have opened the door wide open to a cut as well. The messaging of a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to policy is likely to remain, but Lagarde is unlikely to steer away from a December cut,” they added.
After losing more than 1.5% against the US Dollar (USD) in the first week of October, the Euro has broadly stabilized. Heading into the ECB showdown, EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase below 1.1000.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to stick to the bank’s data-dependent stance and refrain from giving a certain response on the next rate cut move. In case she reiterates the ECB expectation of inflation rising again in the latter part of the year, investors could see this as a sign of the ECB holding interest rates unchanged at the last policy meeting of the year on December 12. In this scenario, the immediate reaction could be positive for the Euro.
Conversely, the Euro could come under renewed selling pressure if the policy statement, or Lagarde, voices growing concerns over a worsening economic outlook in the Eurozone, while acknowledging better-than-forecast progress in disinflation. In the revised projections, ECB staff saw inflation at 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
Moreover, the accounts of the ECB’s September meeting showed that policymakers noted that negative surprises in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) manufacturing output readings and weakening foreign demand indicated potential headwinds to the near-term outlook.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The near-term technical points to a bearish bias for EUR/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays in the bearish territory well below 50, while holding above 30, suggesting that the pair has more room on the downside before turning technically oversold.”
“The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the July-September uptrend and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) form strong support at 1.0870 ahead of 1.0800 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.0680 (beginning point of the uptrend). On the upside, 1.1000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) aligns as key resistance before 1.1060-1.1080 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1200 (end point of the uptrend)."
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