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Oil prices sold off heavily this morning following the latest comments from Israel that it will avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, lower crude oil imports from China and a downward revision in global demand growth estimates from OPEC have further weighed on sentiment.
ICE Brent extended its decline for a third straight session with prices falling sharply by almost 4% in the early trading session today as the risk premium has diminished. Israel has assured the US that it will not strike crude oil or nuclear facilities in Iran. This has removed a big overhang for the oil market in the immediate term.
Chinese trade data yesterday has not helped sentiment either. China’s crude oil imports dropped 7.4% month-on-month (-0.6% year-on-year) to 11.1m b/d as refineries have struggled with weak margins. This leaves cumulative imports down 2.8% YoY this year. Meanwhile, data from Mysteel OilChem shows that weekly refining margins for state plants in China fell 44% YoY to CNY396/t at the end of September.
OPEC released its latest monthly oil market report yesterday where it lowered its demand growth forecast again for this year and 2025, primarily on expectations of softening demand from China. The group cut its oil demand growth forecast by 106k b/d to 1.9m b/d for 2024, and by 102k b/d to 1.6m b/d for 2025. On the supply side, the group left non-OPEC+ supply growth estimates unchanged at 1.2m b/d for 2024 and 1.1m b/d for 2025.
The report also showed that OPEC production decreased by 604k b/d month-on-month to 26.04m b/d in September. The decline was largely driven by Libya and Iraq, where output fell by 410k b/d and 155k b/d, respectively. Production was 170k b/d higher than the agreed quota, with members like Iraq, Gabon, UAE and Kuwait still exceeding their obligations. Overall, OPEC+ production decreased by 170k b/d to 35.5m b/d in September. The IEA will release its latest monthly oil market report later today.
The latest forecasts from the World Steel Association (WSA) show that global steel demand could fall by 0.9% YoY to 1,751mt in 2024. However, the association expects demand to recover by 1.2% YoY to reach 1,772mt in 2025 after declining for three consecutive years. The prime contributors to the rebound in steel demand next year are a stabilising real estate sector in China, interest rate adjustments and rising infrastructure spending across major global economies. However, overall Chinese steel demand could continue to disappoint and could see a decline of 3% YoY in 2024 and a further 1% YoY fall in 2025. In contrast, steel demand in India is expected to remain robust and is estimated to rise by 8% YoY in 2024 and 2025 as well. The WSA further added that steel demand in developed economies could fall by 2% YoY in 2024, while it is expected to recover by 1.9% YoY in 2025 amid a recovery in demand in the EU, US and Japan. As for developing economies (ex-China), steel demand is expected to rise by 3.5% YoY this year and 4.2% YoY next year.
Meanwhile, China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday, which shows total imports for unwrought copper rose 14% MoM to 478.6kt in September on improving seasonal demand and a better consumption outlook for the industrial metal. Although, the numbers remained quite close to 480kt imported in the same month last year. Cumulatively, imports rose 2.6% YoY to 4.1mt over the first nine months of the year. Meanwhile, imports of copper concentrate rose 8.7% YoY to 2.4mt last month, as strong domestic refined output continued to support import demand for raw material. On a year-to-date basis, copper concentrate imports totalled 21.06mt for the first nine months, up 3.7% YoY. In ferrous metals, iron ore monthly imports rose around 3% YoY to 104mt (highest since January) in September, as buying was encouraged by lower prices and hopes for improved demand during the peak construction season. China's cumulative iron ore imports rose 5% YoY to 918.9mt over the first three quarters of 2024.
On the exports side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium products shipments rose over 19% YoY to 561.6kt, while exports of steel products jumped 26% YoY to 10.2mt (highest since 2016) last month.
Freeport Indonesia has temporarily halted operations at its copper smelter in East Java following a fire at the facility yesterday. The copper smelter started operating officially on 24 September and has a smelting capacity of 1.7mt of copper concentrate, while it is expected to produce approximately 650kt of copper cathodes annually. The smelter could reach its full operational capacity by December 2024.
Cocoa prices are stable as heavy rain in Ivory Coast could slow the new season harvest and the delivery of beans to ports. Prices have already surged to record highs this year following a massive supply shortage last season. The supply concerns were initially expected to ease in the new season, which started on 1 October, however, the weather abnormalities could continue to pose threats to the forthcoming supply as well. Expectations of continuous rain showers in West Africa over the coming days have raised concern about pod diseases in Nigeria and Cameroon regions as well.
The latest data from China Customs shows that China’s soybean imports jumped to near-record highs and rose 59% YoY to 11.37mt in September. This follows imports reaching record highs of 12.14mt in August, driven by lower global prices and potential US trade tensions. Meanwhile, cumulative soybean imports over the first nine months of the year stand at 81.9mt, up 8% YoY.
USD/CAD continues its upward momentum, extending the rally that began on October 2, trading near 1.3810 during European hours on Tuesday. The daily chart shows the pair is trending higher within an ascending channel, reinforcing a bullish outlook.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting a possible downward correction in the near future.
On the upside, USD/CAD could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the 1.3870 level. A break above this point may further boost bullish sentiment, potentially driving the pair toward 1.3946, the highest level since October 2022.
In terms of the downside, USD/CAD may find initial support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, near the 1.3770 level. A break below this could dampen the bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3706.
Additional support is seen at the former pullback resistance, now acting as throwback support, around the 1.3620 level, followed by the psychological threshold of 1.3600.
Silver (XAG/USD) reverses an intraday slide to the $30.75 area and climbs to the top end of its daily range during the early part of the European session on Tuesday. The white metal keeps the red for the second straight day and currently trades just above the $31.00 mark, down 0.40% for the day.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been showing some resilience below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for the resumption of the recent retracement slide from the vicinity of the $33.00 mark, or the highest level since December 2012 touched earlier this month.
In the meantime, the daily swing low, around the $30.75 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $30.35-$30.25 area and the $30.00 mark. This is followed by the $29.85-$29.75 confluence, comprising the 100-day and the 50-day SMAs, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.
The subsequent downfall could drag the XAG/USD to the $29.45 intermediate support en route to the $29.00 round figure and the $28.80.$28.75 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $28.35-$28.30 area before the white metal eventually drops to the $28.00 mark and aims to test the September monthly swing low, around the $27.70-$27.65 zone.
On the flip side, any subsequent move up is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $31.50 area. Some follow-through buying could allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 mark. This is followed by resistance near the 32.25 supply zone, which if cleared could lift the XAG/USD back towards the multi-year peak, just ahead of the $33.00 round figure touched on October 4.
Statistics Canada is set to release its latest inflation data tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of September on Tuesday. Forecasts suggest that the headline CPI could have risen 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) last month.
Alongside the headline data, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its core CPI, which excludes more volatile components such as food and energy. In August, the core CPI showed a 0.1% monthly decrease and a 1.5% rise from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the headline CPI climbed by 2.0% over the last twelve months — the lowest level since February 2021 — and dropped by 0.2% compared to the previous month.
These inflation figures are being closely monitored for their potential impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), especially in light of the BoC's current easing cycle. It is worth recalling that the BoC has reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points at its June, July, and September meetings so far this year, taking the reference interest rate to 4.25%.
In the FX world, the Canadian Dollar has depreciated in the last nine consecutive days, sending USD/CAD to the 1.3800 zone for the first time since early August.
Analysts appear divided regarding the path of price pressures in Canada in September, though they agree that domestic headline prices will fall below the Bank of Canada's target for the time being. Banning an outsized surprise, the underlying disinflationary trend is likely to prompt the BoC to maintain its course regarding the easing cycle that started in June.
After the BoC's rate cut on September 4, Governor Tiff Macklem stated that a 25 bps reduction was appropriate, although he added that BoC officials discussed different scenarios, including slowing the pace of rate reductions and even a 50 basis point cut.
Regarding inflation, Macklem suggested that further rate cuts are likely, citing the Bank of Canada's progress in reducing inflation towards its 2% target. In an interview in Toronto on September 24, Macklem emphasized the importance of maintaining inflation near the midpoint of the 1%–3% control range, stating, "We need to stick the landing." He also highlighted the need for ongoing moderation in core inflation, which, he noted, remains slightly above 2%.
In light of the upcoming release, analysts at TD Securities noted, “We look for CPI to dip to 1.9% on a large drag from gasoline, offset by a stabilization in core goods and strength in travel components. Our forecast would see Q3 CPI undershoot BoC projections from July, but with softer oil prices helping to drive that move and a modest pickup for the BoC's core measures in Sept, we do not believe this would justify a move to 50bp cuts.”
Canada will release its September CPI data on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, and the Canadian Dollar's response will hinge only on any significant surprise in the figures. Absent a major deviation from expectations, the data is unlikely to influence the Bank of Canada's rate outlook.
USD/CAD has kicked off the month with a marked upward bias, reaching two-month highs around 1.3800 on Monday. The monthly advance has so far been on the back of a strong rebound in the US Dollar (USD), which has been keeping the broad risk-linked currencies on the back foot.
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, points out that the continuation of the recovery could well see USD/CAD challenging its 2024 top of 1.3946 (August 5), just ahead of the 1.4000 milestone, an area last visited in May 2020.
“In the opposite direction, there are provisional contention levels at the 100-day and 55-day SMAs of 1.3655 and 1.3618, respectively, prior to the more relevant 200-day SMA at 1.3612. A break below this level could trigger further weakness, potentially targeting the next support at the September bottom of 1.3418 (September 25), ahead of the weekly low of 1.3358 (January 31)”, Pablo adds.
The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry, including e-commerce, has generated a total of RM427.7 billion to Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, compared to RM411.6 billion in 2022, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said this represents a contribution of 23.5% to GDP in 2023, against 22.9% in the preceding year.
“ICT and e-commerce activities grew at 3.9%, compared to 14.3% in the preceding year. The ICT and e-commerce (industry) are composed of gross value added of ICT industry (GVAICT) with the share of 13.8%, and 9.6% from e-commerce in non-ICT industries,” he said in a statement on the Information and Communication Technology Satellite Account (ICTSA) 2023 on Tuesday.
According to Mohd Uzir, the GVAICT stood at RM252.0 billion last year, recording a growth of 3.8%, compared to 11.4% in 2022, supported by ICT services, contributing to 41.6%.
“This is followed by ICT manufacturing, ICT trade, and content and media, with a share of 38.2%, 14.2% and 6.0%, respectively,” he added.
Mohd Uzir noted that the gross value added of e-commerce amounted to RM248.2 billion in 2023, with slower growth of 3.7%, compared to 19.2% in the preceding year.
He said the contribution of e-commerce to GDP was recorded at 13.6%, with the manufacturing sector as the main contributor at 51.8%, followed by the services sector at 45.2%.
In addition, Mohd Uzir said the exports of ICT products contributed 34.5% to Malaysia’s exports, valued at RM430.7 billion in 2023, and was dominated by ICT goods, with a share of 90.9%.
“The imports of ICT products recorded a contribution of 23.4% to national imports, with a value of RM270.7 billion, contributed by the ICT goods, with the share of 84.3%.
“Overall, net exports of ICT products recorded a surplus of RM160.0 billion in 2023,” he noted.
On the labour front, Mohd Uzir said employment in the ICT industry increased by 1.6% to 1.24 million persons in 2023, with a contribution of 7.8% to the overall employment in Malaysia.
“The employment was dominated by ICT manufacturing at 35.6%, followed by ICT services and ICT trade, with a share of 29.2% and 22.4% respectively,” he added.
Crude oil took a dive today on reports that Israel was willing to not target Iranian oil facilities in its retaliatory strike that had oil traders on edge earlier this month.
The original report came out in the Washington Post, which wrote, citing two unnamed officials, that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had told his U.S. allies that the IDF would focus on military targets, and not oil and nuclear power facilities.
That report essentially killed the geopolitical premium supporting oil prices last week, reinforcing a couple of other bearish news updates since the start of the week.
The first of these was Chinese consumer prices, which appeared to have disappointed oil traders by not rising sufficiently in September, and the other was OPEC’s latest monthly report that featured a revised outlook on global oil demand.
The group cut its oil demand growth estimate for a third consecutive month, based on actual consumption data so far this year and expectations of slightly lower demand in some regions.
OPEC now expects global crude oil demand to grow by 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, down by 106,000 bpd compared to last month’s assessment, the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report for October showed on Monday.
Chinese oil demand growth was cut again and accounted for most of the downward revision of global oil demand growth in 2024. OPEC now expects China’s oil demand to grow by 580,000 bpd this year, down from the 650,000 bpd growth expected in the September report.
In further bearish news for oil prices, the latest China energy import data showed that shipments of crude over the first nine months of the year had dipped by 3%, according to Reuters. Imports were also down by over 7% from August as refineries entered planned maintenance amid weak margins.
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