Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD circling the $59,000 mark at the time of writing, having still managed to gain 7.8% over the past week.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

“Hold the current area until then - and I think it looks great for further upside.”

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Jelle/X

“Could it be the case that Bitcoin is simply retesting its 1-year average before continuing higher, as it did in Q2 & Q3 2023? Until proven otherwise, yes!”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 365-period SMA, EMA (screenshot). Source: Cubic Analytics

On weekly timeframes, BTC/USD remains stuck below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen trend lines on Ichimoku, while RSI is likewise pinned below the key 50 mark.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with Ichimoku cloud, RSI data. Source: TradingView

The daily chart looks moderately better, with the price above 50 but still below the Ichimoku cloud.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with Ichimoku cloud, RSI data. Source: TradingView

“A lot is pointing towards a reversal within the last two weeks of September. Uptober is coming,” it summarized.

BTC/USD 3-day chart with RSI data. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/X

The only question is how large it will be; the debate currently centers on 0.25% and 0.5%, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently sees the latter as more likely.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Others are eyeing Bitcoin’s close correlation to broader global liquidity conditions, these now on the rise, as grounds for optimism.

Source: Quinten

“I prefer the cycle low comparison the most as it describes the psychological time it takes for investors to recover from a bear market. Upside measures are not relevant, but duration can be.”

Bitcoin Index performance since cycle low. Source: Checkmate/X

By that token, onchain analytics firm Glassnode shows the current cycle is something of an underperformer.

Bitcoin price performance since each halving. Source: Glassnode

Reacting, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, noted that the pair had lost over 50% since Ethereum’s Merge two years ago.

Source: Alex Thorn

“All depending on $ETH, but it seems like we're close, given the current sentiment.”

Bitcoin crypto market cap dominance 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

“New ATH in October.”

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Source: Cointelegraph

In the second quarter of 2024 (2Q2024), Malaysia's retail sales decelerated to 0.6%, falling short of market expectations, according to Retail Group Malaysia (RGM).

In June, members of the Malaysia Retailers Association (MRA) and Malaysia Retail Chain Association (MRCA) projected a growth rate of 1.7%, making the actual result 65% below the estimate.

Despite an attractive ringgit and visa-free entry for tourists from China and India, which boosted foreign tourist numbers, festive sales during Hari Raya Aidilfitri, celebrated from April 10, did not meet expectations. 

"Retail prices continued to rise during 2Q2024. Malaysian consumers needed to manage their monthly expenses carefully in order to maintain their lifestyles. 

"The never-ending Israel-Palestine conflict had affected businesses of certain international retail brands," said RGM in its most recent report.

Overall, the Malaysian retail industry grew by 4.6% in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.

Looking ahead, the majority of members of the MRA and MRCA are optimistic about the next three months. They estimate an average growth rate of 3.6% in retail sales for 3Q2024.

Department store operators predict a recovery with a growth rate of 7.3%, followed by supermarket operators with 5.8%.

Supermarket and hypermarket operators expect a moderate growth of 1.9%, while mini-markets, convenience stores and cooperatives foresee a 2.3% increase. 

The fashion and fashion accessories sector is expected to remain vibrant with a growth rate of 7.4%. Retailers selling children's and baby products anticipate a 2.7% growth, whereas pharmacy operators expect a slowdown with a 1.2% increase.

Retailers in the personal care sub-sector are particularly optimistic, forecasting a 23.5% growth rate. However, operators of furniture, home improvement and electrical and electronics sectors are pessimistic, predicting a 1.9% contraction, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline.

Retailers in other specialty stores, including photo shops and online shopping platforms, expect a 2.6% improvement. 

RGM maintained its 3.6% growth forecast for 2024, considering the softer market in 2Q2024, and higher estimates for 3Q2024.

The retail sector is anticipated to grow by 3.6% in 3Q2024, and 3.2% in 4Q2024.

Challenges such as rising living costs, increased service tax rates and floating diesel prices have reportedly impacted retail spending. 

Meanwhile, the introduction of a new flexible account by the Employee Provident Fund and cash handouts under the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah programme are said to have provided some relief. 

The government's efforts to attract tourists have also reportedly benefited retail businesses, with significant increases in tourist arrivals from China and India.

Additionally, the Malaysian government will increase civil servant remuneration from Dec 1, which is expected to stimulate retail sales during the year-end holiday season. 

The government targets 27.3 million tourists and RM102.7 billion in tourist receipts for 2024, further boosting the retail sector.

Source: The edge markets

In a nutshell

Kamala Harris may continue Biden’s policies, but adjustments are inevitable

Key challenges include rising global political shifts, nuclear issues and energy

Adversaries will try to test the boundaries of a new Democratic president

Even when successive presidents are from the same political party, such as the administrations of Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) and George Bush (1989-1993), American foreign policy contains elements of both continuity and change. If Kamala Harris succeeds Joe Biden as the president of the United States in January 2025, this will also likely be the case. Even though Ms. Harris and Mr. Biden agree on the fundamental directions for foreign and security policy, adjustments are inevitable. In part, this is because presidents have to respond to the turmoil of the geopolitical environment. But it is also because presidents select their own senior staff and cabinet, and new key officials lead to shifts in priorities.

Applying core liberal principles

In terms of advisors, leaders and ideas, the presidencies of Barack Obama (2009-2017) and Joe Biden (2021-2025) were strongly aligned. The basic principles of American liberal policy will no doubt also apply to a Harris administration.

Engagement: Bill Clinton was the Democratic party’s first post-Cold War president. Mr. Clinton (1993-2001) was known for his “engagement and enlargement” policy, which embraced internationalism and supported the expansion of democratic regimes that complied with international norms. Although former President Obama, President Biden and Vice President Harris also promote the expansion and defense of democracy, engagement focuses on de-escalating conflicts with adversarial regimes such as Russia, China and Iran, seeking compromise whenever possible. Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, for example, consistently argue that China should and must be a partner in implementing the global green transition. They were also open to engagement with Iran, and sought to find common ground with Tehran on supporting the cause of a Palestinian state. Despite current confrontations with China, Russia and Iran, a Harris administration would likely look for opportunities to cooperate with all three.

Incrementalism: Mr. Obama, Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris all favor policies that call for the restrained use of force, and prefer non-military means to advance national interests. Their preference is to take an incrementalist approach and to use the minimum amount of coercion necessary to achieve desired outcomes. This was reflected, for instance, in the Biden administration’s measured efforts to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine, which began with a series of diplomatic measures and threats of economic sanction. The U.S. response only became more robust after it became clear that deterrence had failed.   

Globalism and liberalism: Without question, Democratic leaders believe in a structural approach to foreign policy, which holds that establishing international norms and institutions is key to managing state behavior. They also believe in established practices such as traditional foreign aid as important instruments for international cooperation and global governance. For instance, the Biden-Harris administration remains committed to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) despite the spiraling controversies surrounding the agency since the outbreak of Palestinian violence on October 7 and the Israeli response.

Future challenges

Although the playbook of American liberal governance is well established, all presidents have to adapt to the reality on the ground. Here are the most significant challenges a Democratic president would face.  

Rise of global conservativism: European populists and the growing strength of the center-right and conservatives in Europe is not a passing phase, but an increasingly important political force. President Harris would likely not be able to count on a preponderance of European voices sharing her liberal views toward foreign policy. The European Union will increasingly struggle to speak with one voice. The European landscape will look less and less like a place where the U.S. can rely on a “one-stop shop” to coordinate with Europe. This will also be true of the G7. President Harris would engage with leaders who are not like-minded on a range of issues, from migration to economic matters.

Nuclear policy: In the near term, the next U.S. president will face nuclear parity with Russia and China, and a possible nuclear breakout from Iran. The space competition is accelerating, and demands for missile defense will increase. Former President Obama entered office advocating for a “road to nuclear zero” and opposing nuclear modernization. The realities of nuclear competition and extended deterrence could force a Harris administration to completely abandon Democratic orthodoxies on this issue. In addition, the Biden strategy of “integrated” deterrence will likely prove completely inadequate and in need of revision.  

Antisemitism and anti-Zionism: The tensions between support for the Palestinians and traditional Democratic support for combating antisemitism and anti-Zionism are creating enormous tensions within the Democratic party. How a Harris administration would address this challenge will greatly affect both future domestic politics and U.S. security and foreign policy.

Economy: The Biden-Harris policy of promoting growth through government spending and higher taxes could well be seen as completely unrealistic by 2025. After promising voters lower inflation and better conditions for the middle and working classes, Ms. Harris will find few traditional liberal policies that can deliver on this promise. Further, the Biden administration has imposed more tariffs and sanctions than the Trump administration and has not completed a single free trade agreement. This will make it difficult to champion free-market policies.

Climate and energy policy: No aspect of liberal governance has achieved a more definitive consensus than the commitment to a green transition agenda and net-zero goals. Yet, these policies are being increasingly questioned around the world, from developed countries with lagging growth to developing countries mired in energy poverty. The liberal orthodoxy might prove unsustainable. Ms. Harris has already claimed she no longer supports banning fracking.

Latin America and immigration: Nowhere has the Democratic policy of engagement and alignment failed more significantly than in Latin America, where the U.S. faces the expanding influence of China, Russia and Iran as well as international criminal and terrorist networks. The illegal population of the U.S. increased under the Biden-Harris administration, and human trafficking from Asia, the Middle East and Africa increased significantly. The chances of a future administration addressing the issue by having Congress approve a mass amnesty are near zero.

Africa:  Africa is undergoing a demographic boom. Within decades Africa will have the youngest population in the world, adding an additional half billion people. Current U.S. policies that rely on traditional instruments and often press Africans to adopt liberal values regarding family, life and gender, are not adequately addressing Africa’s need for growth, security and political stability. A Harris administration would have to face the consequences of this shortcoming, among them dwindling U.S. influence in the region.

Iran: The current Democratic policy toward Iran appears unsustainable. In addition to failing to ameliorate U.S.-Iran relations, constrain Iran’s surrogates or stem the regime’s nuclear weapons program, several individuals among the Biden-Harris staff are currently accused of being sympathetic to or even working for Tehran. The case of Robert Malley, the suspended U.S. Special Representative for Iran, is only the most noteworthy.

Scenarios

Source: GIS

Traders still price over 100 bps of Fed cuts by year-end, creating a potential disconnect between markets and the Fed's dot-plot projections.

The line chart shows Brazil's annual inflation rate and the policy rate between 2021 and 2024. Market implied rates and inflation forecasts between September and December 2024 are showing using dotted lines.

The Chart depicts the policy rate and core inflation numbers for Japan.The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates steady after its Sept. 19-20 meeting next week and expected to raise them again by year-end.

Investors rely on market forecasts for central bank policy. It might be best to ignore them for now.

A line chart that compares key inflation metrics over the past five years.

Possibilities are numerous. In the meantime, investors are buying banking shares. Commerzbank shares rallied nearly 20% in two days, the European bank index gained almost 2%.

The line chart shows that shares of German bank Commerzbank soared by 17% on September 11 after Italy's UniCredit snapped up a 9% stake in the German lender.

Source: Reuters

United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Bhd (UOB Malaysia) hailed the enhancements of Malaysia's public-private partnership (PPP) framework under the newly launched PPP Master Plan 2030 (Pikas 2030) as "timely and necessary" to address global and domestic economic shifts.

While the PPP model is not new, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research views the updated framework as critical for reducing government fiscal burdens and fostering sustainable development.

Unlike previous PPP frameworks, UOB believes Pikas 2030 introduces a broader definition of PPP projects, encompassing not just public infrastructure but also assets and services, while reclassifying PPP models into three categories — concession, privatisation, and alternative modes.

“PPP models will be reclassified into three modes, namely concession (whereby concessions can be further categorised into user-pays, government-pays or hybrid), privatisation, and alternative mode (other than concession or privatisation),” UOB said in a note.

The bank noted that the enhancements are crucial for ensuring that private-sector investments play a significant role in driving the country’s future development.

“In sum, Pikas 2030 is essential to expand and diversify investments, as well as pave the way for high-impact projects to drive the country’s development and transformation.

“The right model, efficient execution, proper monitoring framework, and broader level of industry engagement will help stimulate more development initiatives and investment activity for the medium term,” it said.

Launched on Sept 9, Pikas 2030 aims to stimulate private investment to hit RM78 billion, contribute RM83 billion to gross domestic product (GDP), and create 900,000 new jobs by 2030. 

The master plan introduces four strategic thrusts and 17 initiatives to enhance Malaysia's PPP framework, particularly in sectors like transportation, renewable energy, and smart agriculture.

Besides, the updated framework also revises the minimum project cost to RM50 million (from RM25 million previously) while keeping the minimum concession period of seven years, after taking into account inflation effects.

UOB views these enhancements as essential, especially as the government prepares for Budget 2025 and the 13th Malaysia Plan. 

“The right PPP model will ensure the private sector’s expertise and resources are aligned with the government’s objectives to foster innovation, efficiency, accountability and sustainable development, and will help to ease the government’s fiscal constraints,” UOB added.

The bank also highlighted that PPP projects contributed RM50.5 billion to Malaysia’s GDP and created nearly 700,000 jobs from 2009 to 2023.

Presently, a total of 37 PPP projects are identified as key outputs of the expanding PPP models in the newly launched Pikas 2030, while 41 projects are listed as potential PPP projects that can be implemented in the future.

Source: Theedgemarkets