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USD/JPY started a fresh increase above the 156.00 resistance zone.
USD/JPY started a fresh increase above the 156.00 resistance zone.
A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 156.80 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD is still consolidating below the 1.0450 resistance zone.
Bitcoin failed to regain traction and declined from $100,000.
The US Dollar started a fresh increase above the 155.50 and 156.00 resistance levels. USD/JPY cleared the 157.00 level to move further into a positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled well above the 156.50 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bulls remained in control and might aim for more gains.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 158.20 level. The next major resistance is near the 158.80 level. A close above the 158.80 level could set the tone for another increase.
In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 160.00 resistance. On the downside, immediate support sits near the 156.80 level. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at 156.80 on the same chart.
The next key support sits near the 155.50 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 154.80 level. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 154.00 level.
Looking at Bitcoin, the bulls failed to push the price above $100,000 and there was a fresh bearish reaction.
Upcoming Economic Events:
US Wholesale Inventories for Nov 2024 (preliminary) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
AUD/USD continues to lose ground for the fifth successive day, trading around 0.6220 during the Asian session on Friday. The AUD/USD pair moves downwards as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from growing expectations of fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In its December meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 projection to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously forecasted four.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, trades above 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds remain subdued at 4.32% and 4.57%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces pressure as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hints at potential rate cuts in 2025, with markets projecting a reduction to 3.6% by year-end. According to the latest RBA monetary policy minutes, the central bank appears increasingly confident that inflation is on a sustainable path toward its target.
Additionally, the AUD struggles due to increased risk aversion and growing concerns about China's economic health, a crucial factor given that China is Australia’s largest trading partner. However, the World Bank raised its growth forecast for China in 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak confidence and challenges in the property sector will continue to pressure the economy.
Traders were focused on China’s recent economic measures, including reports that officials have more flexibility to use government bond proceeds to stimulate growth, potentially boosting Oil demand from the leading consumer.
What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The NZD/USD pair extends its downside to around 0.5615 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens amid concerns about weak consumer demand and a prolonged downturn in the property market in China. The markets are likely to trade in a quiet session ahead of the New Year holiday.
Data released on Friday revealed that China’s industrial profits extended declines to a fourth straight month, falling 7.3% in November from a year earlier. Persistently weak Chinese domestic demand could undermine the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is the largest trading partner of New Zealand.
Furthermore, the speculation about a potential 10% tariff on Chinese goods from Donald Trump’s administration contributes to the NZD’s downside. Many analysts expect that Trump’s tariff policies could fuel inflation and might convince the Fed to slow or pause its rate decisions next year in a wait-and-see approach. This, in turn, might lift the Greenback and create a headwind for NZD/USD.
The markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver further interest rate cuts to stimulate growth after the country sank into recession in the third quarter (Q3). Markets have priced in nearly a 70% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) cut in February, and rates were seen declining to 3.0% by the end of 2025.
USD/CAD faced a minor challenge of improved crude Oil prices.
Oil prices are set for weekly gains as reports suggest that European energy firms focus on Oil rather than renewables.
The Canadian Dollar may struggle due to rising expectations of the BoC easing rates to support growth.
USD/CAD remains tepid following two days of gains, trading around 1.4410 during the Asian hours on Friday. The USD/CAD pair holds minor losses as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains ground due to improved crude Oil prices, given Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price gains ground, trading around $69.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices are being bolstered by reports that major European energy companies are focusing on Oil and gas rather than renewables for short-term profits, a trend expected to continue into 2025.
Canada's GDP likely contracted by 0.1% month-over-month in November, marking the first monthly decline of the year and reflecting the central bank's recent warnings and downgraded growth projections. The government also revised its GDP forecasts downward, lowering 2025 growth to 1.7% from 1.9% and 2026 to 2.1% from 2.2%. Rising expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may further ease rates to support growth could widen the interest rate gap with the US, diminishing the CAD’s attractiveness.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to growing expectations of fewer rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). In its December meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point and revised its 2025 projection to include only two rate cuts, down from the previously forecasted four.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, trades above 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds remain subdued at 4.32% and 4.57%, respectively, at the time of writing.
What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
MELAKA (Dec 27): The Netherlands, Hong Kong and Japan are the top three investors in Melaka, said Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh.
He said the Netherlands had invested RM8.4 billion, creating 2,505 job opportunities, while Hong Kong invested RM1.7 billion (1,230 jobs), and Japan invested RM1.296 billion (7,359 jobs).
Ab Rauf also said that the electrical and electronics sector topped the investment list with a value of RM11.975 billion (generating 8,192 jobs), followed by non-metallic mineral projects amounting to RM1.840 billion (1,276 jobs), and machinery and equipment investments totalling RM1.671 billion (1,194 jobs).
“The Melaka government is committed to increasing investments in these sectors by exploring high-tech industrial development opportunities based on the principles of ESG (environmental, social and governance).
“Key initiatives include the development of new industrial areas, such as the MCorp Hi-Tech Park and the German Technology Park, to cater to investors’ growing focus on sustainable technology and innovation,” he said during the state assembly at Seri Negeri on Friday.
He was responding to a question from Datuk Zaidi Attan (Barisan Nasional-Serkam) regarding the top investing countries in Melaka, the sectors with high investments, and the number of jobs created.
Ab Rauf further said that the state aims to attract investors seeking modern infrastructure, a skilled workforce and sustainable development strategies.
He said this aligns with the state government’s efforts to boost Melaka’s competitiveness as an investment destination, especially in manufacturing sectors such as electrical and electronics, semiconductors, machining and equipment.
In addition, he said the state government had taken proactive steps to ensure an adequate supply of skilled workers, including establishing the Melaka TVET Council on Oct 29, 2022 to strengthen collaboration between industries and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions.
“This council aims to address workforce gaps, and ensure that skills taught in TVET institutions align with current and industrial needs,” he said.
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