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US stocks rally with Dow leading gains, as investors await inflation data and Federal Reserve minutes. Key technical levels for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 suggest potential market moves ahead.
Eight out of 10 Korean tax experts see the need to ease inheritance tax to reflect an increase in national income and asset prices, the country's main business lobby said Monday.
In a survey of 106 experts, including tax accountants and professors, 82.1 percent of them stood for the revision of tax laws to lower inheritance tax, the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) said in a statement.
They pointed out the taxation system, which has remained unchanged since 1999, does not reflect the fact the number of individuals and corporations subject to inheritance taxes has jumped due to increased earnings and asset values, the statement said.
The FKI also pointed out that an inheritance tax rate of 50 percent may be too high, weighing on the competitiveness of corporations and their business stability, while it may also work as double taxation, in addition to income tax.
Korea's 50 percent tax rate is the second-highest level among the 38 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an FKI official noted.
A majority of the respondents said eased inheritance tax rate will have a positive impact on the Korean economy and help resolve the "Korea discount," a chronic undervaluation of Korean shares relative to their global peers, the FKI said.
In a separate survey of 1,000 people, 73.4 percent of respondents agreed on easing inheritance tax for similar reasons, it added.
"Some other countries have abolished or eased inheritance taxes to generate friendly business environments for companies. Korea needs to improve business market conditions and attract overseas investments through a tax revision," an FKI official said. (Yonhap)
Retail sales fell 0.1% in the September quarter, a smaller drop than we expected. Retail spending remains soft, but is likely to firm over the coming months.
September quarter retail sales (volume of good sold): -0.1% (Prev: -1.2%)
Westpac f/c: -0.5%, Market: -0.5%
September quarter nominal retail sales: -0.7% (Prev: -1.4%)
While not quite as weak as expected, September was another soft quarter for New Zealand’s retail sector.
Nominal retail spending fell 0.7% in the September quarter, with the volume of goods purchased down 0.1% (we had expected a sharper 0.5% fall in the volume of goods sold).
Spending in the September quarter was boosted by a rise in vehicle purchases, which can be lumpy on a quarter-to-quarter basis (for instance, this month’s rise followed a sharp drop last quarter).
However, looking under the surface, the softness in New Zealanders’ spending appetites remains clear. Spending in core (excl. vehicles and fuel) categories was down 0.8% over the past three months and is down 2.8% over the past year.
Looking at the longer-term trends in the retail sector, sales have been trending down over the past year as households have wound back their spending in response to increases in living costs and high interest rates. There has been particular softness in discretionary spending areas, like purchases of household furnishings and spending in bars and restaurants.
We expect that the September quarter will be the low point for retail sales. Tax cuts were rolled out in late July. In addition, the financial headwinds that have squeezed household spending power over the past year are now easing, with inflation dropping back and interest rates falling. It will take time for the full impact of those changes to pass through to households’ back pockets. However, confidence is on the rise.
Against that backdrop, we expect to see retail spending gradually pushing higher as we go into the holiday shopping season, with a more meaningful rise expected through mid-2025.
While firmer than expected, today’s figures were broadly in line with the continued softness in economic growth that we’re forecasting in the September quarter (we’re forecasting a 0.2% fall in GDP over the quarter). We’ll take a closer look at how our forecast for GDP growth is shaping up over the next couple of weeks as additional data on September quarter activity is released.
The EUR/JPY cross kicks off the new week on a positive note, albeit struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the 162.00 mark through the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Investors now seem convinced that increased domestic political uncertainty in Japan could restrict the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from hiking interest rates further. This, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, is seen undermining demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and lending some support to the EUR/JPY cross. That said, intervention fears and retreating US Treasury bond yields help limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY.
The shared currency, on the other hand, seems vulnerable on the back of a surprise fall in the Eurozone Composite PMI to a 10-month low in November. This comes on top of potential economic risks in the wake of US President-elect Donald Trump's taunted tariffs and lifts bets for faster interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB). This, in turn, favors the Euro bears and validates the negative outlook for the EUR/JPY cross.
Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Adding to this, negative oscillators on daily/hourly charts suggest that any intraday move-up could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out quickly. Investors, however, might wait for acceptance below the 161.00 mark before positioning for any intraday decline.
What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against its American counterpart at the start of a new week, dragging the USD/JPY pair back below the 154.00 mark during the Asian session. The US Treasury bond yields fell sharply in reaction to Scott Bessent's nomination as US Treasury Secretary. This, in turn, prompts traders to lighten their US Dollar (USD) bullish bets after the recent rally to a two-year high and drives some flows towards the lower-yielding JPY.
That said, the uncertainty tied to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, could cap any meaningful appreciating move for the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could reignite inflation and restrict the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates slowly might act as a tailwind for the US bond yields. This, in turn, favors the USD bulls and should offer support to the USD/JPY pair.
US President-elect Donald Trump nominated prominent investor Scott Bessent – a fiscal conservative – as Treasury Secretary, reassuring the bond market and pulling yields lower across the board.
The US Dollar, having risen for eight weeks in a row, retreats from its highest level since November 2022 as traders opt to take some profits off the table following the post-US election blowout rally.
Despite stronger consumer inflation data from Japan and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish remarks, domestic political uncertainty could restrict the BoJ from tightening its monetary policy.
Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for another 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December amid worries that Trump's policies could boost inflationary pressures.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in just over a 55% probability that the Fed will lower borrowing costs next month and a nearly 45% chance for an on-hold decision.
The optimism over more business-friendly policies from the new Trump administration was reinforced by the flash US PMIs, showing that business activity climbed to a 31-month high in November.
S&P Global reported on Friday that the Composite US PMI rose to 55.3 this month, or the highest level since April 2022, suggesting that economic growth probably accelerated in the fourth quarter.
Reports suggest that a ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is very close, which further fuels the risk-on mood and might cap the upside for the safe-haven JPY.
The focus this week will be squarely on the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, which could offer cues on the Fed's interest rate path and provide a fresh impetus.
USD/JPY finds acceptance below 100-period SMA on 4-hour chart; seems vulnerable
From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) now seems to have set the stage for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. That said, any further slide might continue to find some support near the 153.30-153.25 region. This is followed by the 153.00 round figure, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. Spot prices might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near mid-152.00s en route to the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 152.00 mark.
On the flip side, the 154.00 round figure now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the Asian session top, around the 154.40 region. Some follow-through buying should allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark and climb further towards the 155.40-155.50 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move beyond the 156.00 mark, towards retesting the multi-month top, around the 156.75 region touched on November 15.
What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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