Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization has skyrocketed by an astounding 350,000% since its inception when compared to its traditional safe-haven rival, gold.

New signals suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of another extended price rally, signaling renewed momentum against the precious metal.

Bitcoin may grow over 400% against gold in 2025

The BTC/GLD ratio chart compares the assets’ performance and could serve as a barometer to gauge BTC’s adoption rate compared to gold. For instance, the ratio’s rise reflects Bitcoin outperforming gold in terms of market cap performance—and vice versa.

According to veteran market analyst Peter Brandt, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may rise by more than 400% in 2025. Brandt cites a classic technical pattern for his extremely bullish outlook.

Dubbed inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S), the pattern develops when the price forms three consecutive troughs, with the middle trough—called the head—deeper than the other two, called the left and right shoulders. The pattern forms beneath a common support line called the neckline.

As a rule of technical analysis, an IH&S pattern resolves when the price breaks above the neckline while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. In doing so, it rises by as much as the maximum distance between the neckline and the head’s deepest point.

BTC/GLD weekly ratio chart. Source: Peter Brandt

Applying the same technical principle on the BTC/GLD ratio chart brings its upside target to around 123. In other words, the price of 1 BTC may equal 123 ounces of gold as early as in 2025, up by over 400% compared to 24 ounces as of Sept. 22, 2024.

Bitcoin ETF market set to grow to $220B

The idea of Bitcoin overtaking gold has been fueled by its rapid adoption, particularly by institutional investors and the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have bolstered Bitcoin’s presence in investment portfolios.

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has resulted in inflows of over $17.69 billion since January 2024, with projections that the Bitcoin ETF market could grow to as much as $220 billion by 2027, using gold ETFs as a benchmark​.

In addition, experts like Anthony Scaramucci argue that Bitcoin will eventually surpass gold’s market capitalization within the next decade, citing BTC’s advantages, such as scarcity and portability.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

Vietnam aims to have at least one semiconductor fabrication plant and 10 packaging plants by 2030, and will launch a fund to help foreign investors mitigate the impacts of the global minimum business tax, the government said on the weekend.

The country's semiconductor industry is targeting revenue of US$25 billion (RM104.9 billion) by 2030, the government said in a statement after the release of its semiconductor industry development strategy on Saturday.

The Southeast Asian country, a regional manufacturing hub, is seeking to move to high-tech industries from labour-intensive ones. As part of its drive, the country aims to have 50,000 semiconductor engineers by 2030, the government said.

Several global electronics and semiconductor firm including Intel, Samsung, Amkor Technology, Qualcomm and Marvell Technology have facilities in the country.

Beyond the initial 2030 target, the government said it plans to have at least three semiconductor fabrication plants and 20 packaging plants, with annual revenues of US$100 billion, by 2050.

In July, the Ministry of Planning and Investment said it was finalising a draft plan to set up a fund to help attract foreign investment into high-tech industries and maintain the country's competitiveness.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Korea's exports lost 1.1 percent on-year in the first 20 days of September, data showed Monday.

Outbound shipments reached $35.58 billion in the Sept. 1-20 period, compared with $35.97 billion tallied a year earlier, according to the data from the Korea Customs Service.

Per-day exports, however, advanced 18 percent on-year to $2.74 billion.

The number of working days came to 13 over the cited period, compared with 15.5 days a year earlier.

Imports shed 4.5 percent on-year to $34.8 billion during the period, resulting in a trade surplus of $800 million.

In August, exports rose 11.4 percent on-year to $57.9 billion, the 11th consecutive monthly gain, on the back of strong demand for semiconductors, government data showed.

Exports of semiconductors, a major export item, jumped 26.2 percent to $7.48 billion during the first 20 days of this month.

Semiconductor exports accounted for 21 percent of the country's total exports during the cited period, up 4.5 percentage points from a year earlier amid an industry cycle upturn.

Auto exports, however, shed 8.8 percent to $2.98 billion, and those of automotive parts decreased 13.3 percent to $1.13 billion.

Sales of petroleum products lost 5 percent to $2.85 billion, and exports of steel products went down 9.5 percent to $2.38 billion.

By nation, shipments to China edged up 2.7 percent to $7.7 billion, while exports to the United States shed 5.9 percent to $6.17 billion.

Exports to the European Union dropped 15.1 percent to $3.55 billion, but those to Vietnam gained 1.2 percent to $3.33 billion.

Shipments to Taiwan spiked 79.8 percent to $1.99 billion, while exports to Japan dived 12.4 percent to $1.49 billion.

The government expected exports to advance 9 percent this year to reach a record high of over $700 billion. 

Source: Koreatimes

Source: BarChart

The Week That Was – Themes

The Week That Was – Markets

Prime Minister Michel Barnier opened the door to taxing wealthy individuals and large companies in a bid to repair France’s massive budget deficit and reassure international investors.

The new premier said in an interview on France 2 television Sunday that he wanted to avoid raising taxes on the middle class and workers, but emphasised that there needed to be a collective effort to cut spending and to turn around France’s “grave” debt situation.

Parties on the left and right have threatened to bring down the newly formed government, raising the risk of a swift collapse that would further cloud the outlook for France’s stretched public finances. Further complicating the situation, some lawmakers backing the new administration have said that one of their conditions to support Barnier is that he doesn’t boost taxes.

“In the necessary, national effort to repair the situation, I won’t exclude that the richest participate,” Barnier said. “In the national effort, some very big companies, multinationals that are working well, can also contribute.”

The issue is particularly explosive for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, who have argued that seven years of keeping a lid on taxes is a cornerstone of economic policy that slowly transformed France’s fortunes, bringing jobs and foreign investment.

But Barnier is increasingly cornered as Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house and months of political gridlock have undermined investor confidence, driving up France’s borrowing costs compared with other European countries. Making matters worse, the nation’s fiscal situation deteriorated further over the summer under the watch of a caretaker government.

Since Macron called a snap election on June 9, the benchmark Paris stock index is down more than 6%, making it by far the worst-performing major market in Europe. The country’s government bonds have also been sliding relative to other European countries, taking the spread between French and German 10-year yields, a proxy for French risk, up about 30 basis points since before the elections.

“Our country is in a very grave situation — €3 trillion (US$3.3 trillion or RM14.09 trillion) of debt and €50 billion in interest to pay a year,” Barnier said in the interview. “A lot of our debt is on international markets — we must preserve France’s credibility.”

Barnier’s cabinet, which was announced Saturday evening, is the fruit of more than two months of factious negotiations after Macron’s bid to bring stability to parliament with an election achieved the opposite: a National Assembly split into three bitterly opposed blocs, each incapable of governing alone.

The new government hands Barnier an awkward patchwork of conservatives and centrists who haven’t always worked smoothly together. What’s more, even if he can hold together the groups, as a unit they fall far short of being able to thwart a no-confidence vote that would bring down the government.

“The question is not what government we’ll have in France but when it falls,” Benjamin Melman, global chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, said last week before the administration was announced. “As long as there’s going to be this French premium, we will find some reluctance from investors to come back.”

The left-wing New Popular Front alliance — which holds the largest number of seats in the lower house — has pledged to topple the government at the earliest opportunity. It doesn’t have the votes to do so alone, but it could get the support of the far-right National Rally, whose leader, Marine Le Pen, has become the de facto king maker for the new administration.

The National Rally, which is the single largest party in parliament, indicated that the new government has “no future” and is a return of “Macronism”.

Budget pressure

The priority for Barnier’s administration is to construct a 2025 budget bill in the coming weeks to tackle the expanding deficit. However, it’s already likely to miss the Oct 1 deadline to present a bill to parliament. Compounding the pressure, the European Union has put France in a special procedure designed to enforce stricter fiscal discipline in countries deemed to have excessive debts and deficits.

Without new measures to curb spending or increase tax, France’s budget deficit could reach 6% of economic output this year, Les Echos reported on Friday, citing new forecasts from the finance ministry. European Union rules cap it at 3%.

Speaking Sunday on France Info radio, National Rally Vice-President Sebastien Chenu said his party’s decision to support a no-confidence bill would depend on the budget and Barnier’s approach.

“We said we wouldn’t immediately censure the Barnier government,” he said. “On the other hand, seeing the profile of this government, Barnier hasn’t scored a good point.”

Barnier is due to address the parliament on Oct 1, which will be the first opportunity for a party to call for a no-confidence vote.

The prime minister has picked Antoine Armand, a 33-year-old with limited political experience, to take on the role of finance minister. He’ll be flanked by Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin, the 39-year-old head of Business France, which promotes export growth and foreign investment.

Saint-Martin will report directly to Barnier, a sign of the importance the new prime minister attaches to pushing through a budget.

“In the current fiscal context, excluding outright some exceptional and targeted taxes would not be responsible,” Armand said in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche. “But that doesn’t make it a doctrine, and doesn’t resolve our problem: we must cut public spending and make it more efficient.”

Barnier scored one high profile appointment with the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Bruno Retailleau, who’ll be the new interior minister. The 63-year-old has been a vocal critic of Macron’s past governments, demanding more fiscal discipline and taking a more conservative stance on social issues.

Source: The edge markets