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In the world of mankind, there will not be a statement without any position, nor a remark without any purpose.
Inflation, exchange rates, and the economy shape the policy decisions of central banks; the attitudes and words of central bank officials also influence the actions of market traders.
Money makes the world go round and currency is a permanent commodity. The forex market is full of surprises and expectations.
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The Bank of England may have got a head-start on the Federal Reserve, but the tone from UK policymakers is still much more cautious. Later this year, however, we think the Bank will be more confident in the inflation outlook and will be content with accelerating the pace of cuts.
What was striking about the Bank of England decision is how different the messaging was compared to the Federal Reserve. The Bank has kept rates on hold in an 8-1 vote and the language in the statement makes it abundantly clear that it’s not in any hurry to lower rates. By promising a “gradual approach” to rate cuts, the Bank is effectively endorsing quarterly rate cuts of 25 basis points. That suggests the next cut is highly likely in November.
None of this is particularly surprising, but it does beg the question of whether the Bank of England’s easing cycle needs to look that different to that of the Federal Reserve. Markets, for some time, have concluded that it will. There are fewer cuts priced this year relative to the US and the terminal rate is some 40-50bp higher too.
It’s easy to see why. Not only is the BoE sounding more hawkish, UK services inflation is higher than in the US and eurozone, and at face value, it is going in the wrong direction.
The Bank’s hawks worry that corporate price and wage-setting behaviour has permanently shifted in a way that’s going to make it perpetually harder to get inflation down on a sustained basis. We’re not convinced that’s the consensus view on the committee right now – August’s decision to cut rates certainly suggests it isn’t. But so long as wage growth and services inflation remain sticky, then the committee as a whole seems happy to tread carefully.
We’re less convinced that the UK’s easing cycle will deviate that much from the Fed or others. As the Bank readily concedes, the recent stickiness in service sector inflation is mostly down to volatile categories that hold little relevance for monetary policy decisions. Strip that out, and the picture is slowly looking better.
Meanwhile, the jobs data, though admittedly of dubious quality right now, points to an ongoing cooldown too. The number of payrolled employees appears to be falling now and that will inevitably feed through to wage growth. Companies are consistently lowering their estimates of expected and realised price/wage growth, according to a monthly BoE survey.
We therefore think that Bank of England rate cuts will accelerate after November. Beyond then, we think the Bank will grow more confident in the persistence of inflation and there will be sufficient consensus on the committee to switch to back-to-back rate cuts. Like investors, we expect a cut in November and December, with further cuts in 2025 taking us to 3.25% by the end of next summer.
Besides the decision to hold rates unchanged, the BoE also decided to continue reducing the size of its asset portfolio by £100bn over the coming 12 months. Of this amount, £87bn will come from maturing Gilts, and thus relatively little will come from active bond sales. There was some talk that this pace could be increased, but ultimately the Committee seems to prefer maintaining a predictable path going forward. Remember the Bank wants this to be a background process, which allows Bank Rate to remain the active tool for controlling monetary policy.
The impact on market rates will be minimal from the decision to keep the current pace, bearing in mind that this was also the consensus view. QT will continue to play a role in the term risk premium, but we are likely talking in the range of about 10bp for the 10Y yield over the next year. Regarding liquidity conditions, QT should be less impactful, because the BoE’s short-term liquidity facility (STR) has shown significant uptake of late (£44bn) which is helping to mitigate the risks of QT abruptly draining too many reserves from the system.
The Malaysian ringgit is poised to extend its rally after what’s likely to be its best quarter since 1973 as the central bank will probably refrain from cutting interest rates.
The ringgit has risen more than 12% against the dollar so far this quarter, making it the best performing emerging-market currency. Narrowing rate differentials with the US, improving trade performance and attractive asset valuations may help the ringgit strengthen further, analysts said.
Robust economic growth and a potential pickup in consumer prices if the government proceeds to remove some fuel subsidies may keep Bank Negara Malaysia on hold into 2025 even as other central banks start to lower borrowing costs. Foreign investor flows and further conversion of foreign currency deposits will also support the ringgit.
“Malaysia’s current account surplus, neutral central bank stance and stable fundamentals may help with further gains in light of dollar weakness,” said Jeff Ng, head of Asia macro strategy at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “This is particularly so if markets expect more rate cuts by the US, reducing yield differentials between the US and Malaysia.”
The ringgit has been on a tear since April after a rebound in exports and efforts by the central bank to encourage state-linked firms to repatriate overseas investment income. The rally picked up steam this quarter as investors bet on Southeast Asian winners amid the prospect of policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
Global funds have poured a cumulative US$2.5 billion (RM10.51 billion) into the nation’s bonds in July and August, and bought US$1.2 billion of local equities since end-June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The ringgit would also benefit from a rotation into Asia after foreign investors were overweight on Latin American currencies over the past year, according to Chandresh Jain, a strategist at BNP Paribas. “This flow should continue for some time,” he said.
Market indicators suggest the current surge in the ringgit may be stretched, signalling a potential consolidation in the near term. Traders will be keeping a close eye on the country’s budget announcement next month for its progress on subsidy reforms and fiscal deficit.
On a longer term basis, “there is no doubt that the ringgit valuation is attractive and cheap, based on effective exchange rate”, said Wee Khoon Chong, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps. The markets were surprised with the US dollar suffering the most. Both the accompanying policy statement and the press conference were relatively balanced as Chairman Powell tried very carefully to avoid scaring the market by talking down the US economy.
The Fed is probably on a preset course, despite Powell advertising the meeting-by-meeting approach shared by other central banks. The dot plot revealed two additional 25bps rate cuts penciled in by Fed members for 2024, slightly below market expectations for another 72bps of easing this year. What does history tell us about the timing and size of the second Fed cut?
Continuing from a previous special report where six easing cycles were identified since 2000, table 1 below presents the details of the Fed’s first and second rate cuts. As made evident, Fed members decided to cut rates again at the next scheduled meeting in four of the six examined cycles, increasing the possibility for a November 7 rate move.
Interestingly, Fed decisions varied from a 100bps rate cut in 2020, during the outbreak of the Covid pandemic, to just 25bps moves in 2002, 2007 and 2019, when the US economy was not falling off a cliff. Also, the time between the first and the second Fed rate cuts fluctuated from just 13 days in 2020 to almost 8 months in 2002, as the Fed traditionally tries to act appropriately in order to meet its dual mandate.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for November 7, two days after the US presidential election day. Quite possibly, the result of the election might not be yet finalized, especially if the Republican presidential candidate is losing the battle. This raises the possibility of the Fed refraining from announcing another rate cut until the new president is declared. However, the market is convinced that the November rate cut is a done deal, and it is even assigning a sizeable 43% probability for another 50bps move.
Chart 1 below presents the performance of key market assets in the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts. Interestingly, dollar/yen dropped by an average of 1.5% in the last five easing cycles, a performance that could repeat this time around as the Bank of Japan is still open to further rate hikes in 2024.
Similarly, US treasury yields tend to fall in the examined time period, with one grave exception. In 2008, yields rose by 20bps as the US administration borrowed heavily from the bond market in order to fund its relief programmes.
As seen in chart 1 below, the remaining assets exhibit a relatively mixed performance. However, digging through the results there is a common pattern emerging in pound/dollar, S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil price. In periods of distress like 2008 and 2020, these four key assets tend to drop aggressively. For example, the S&P 500 index fell by 5.6% and 20.6% respectively in these two instances, and WTI oil prices collapsed.
In periods of normal economic conditions, like the current situation, the Fed has traditionally opted for a more relaxed approach in terms of its rate cuts. As a result, in 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2019, pound/dollar, S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil exhibited a stronger tendency to rally. More specifically, the S&P 500 index increased by an average of 2.4% in these four periods, while both gold and WTI oil showed a decent appetite for double-digit jumps.
Putting everything together, dollar/yen and the 10-year US treasury yield tend to decrease in the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts. The performance of other key assets like pound/dollar, the S&P 500 index, gold and WTI oil depends on the underlying economic conditions. As such, in both 2008 and 2020 these assets dropped aggressively, while during the period between the first and the second Fed rate cuts in 2001, 2002, 2007 and 2019, they recorded strong gains.
Colombia wants to fuel its transition away from oil and gas with an investment plan worth $40 billion that should replace revenues from hydrocarbon exports.
These are expected to decline after the Colombian government stopped issuing new drilling permits two years ago, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s environment minister as saying the money would be spent on what the publication called “nature-based climate solutions”, along with low-carbon energy, transport electrification, agricultural practices improvement projects, and projects for biodiversity protection.
“All of this is a huge economic transformation,” the official, Susana Muhamad said. “The portfolio of investments is around developing sectors that we think could start replacing oil revenues.” She added that there were hopes at least $10 billion for the investment pot would come from international institutions and developed countries.
Back in 2022, when he came to power, Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro pledged to shift Colombia’s economy away from oil, coal, and gas, in favour of lower-carbon energy alternatives. At last year’s COP28, Petro became the first leader of a large energy producer to vow phasing out hydrocarbons endorsing a call for something called a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Also at COP28, Petro announced Colombia’s transition policy, which at the time had a price tag of $32 billion. Based on the latest announcement by his environment minister the price of the transition has gone up, which reflects cost troubles in the low-carbon industries.
Despite the bold climate plans, Colombia remains highly reliant on hydrocarbon energy. Earlier this year, a decline in gas production threatened electricity supply shortages, forcing the government to consider LNG imports.
Colombia is also a large exporter of coal and oil, and it would take quite an effort to change that and replace lost revenues with new sources of state income. Meanwhile, the energy ministry plans to boost oil production in the country to 1 million barrels daily, from about 800,000 bpd this year.
Fintech giants Robinhood and Revolut are eyeing the stablecoin market, as new regulations in Europe promise to deliver regulatory clarity and impact crypto-native companies’ market share.
According to a Sept. 26 Bloomberg report citing unnamed sources, both Robinhood and Revolut are considering issuing their own stablecoins as the industry continues to expand.
The stablecoin market has been largely dominated by Tether’s USDt . The stablecoin issuer has benefited from the broader macroeconomic landscape and crypto market turbulence over the past two years, including banking crises and regulatory crackdowns on firms in the United States.
USDt, which is pegged to the US dollar, gained more than 20% market share during the period and now controls over 75% of the entire stablecoin market.
Tether’s market share growth has translated into more revenue. The stablecoin issuer reported record-breaking profits of $5.2 billion in the first half of 2024, as well as a larger stockpile of US government bonds to back its reserves. According to Bloomberg, this business model is encouraging more players to enter the stablecoin market.
Despite Bloomberg’s reporting, Robinhood and Revolut have not confirmed whether they plan to enter the stablecoin arena.
The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, introduced in 2023, will significantly impact the stablecoin market. The MiCA implementation on stablecoins was divided into two phases.
The first, which ended on June 30, imposed rules on reserve requirements, transparency and transaction volume caps, leading some exchanges like Binance and Kraken to start reviewing stablecoin offerings ahead of the new rules.
The second phase takes effect on Dec. 30 and applies to crypto-asset service providers, bringing broader regulations for exchanges, wallets and other service companies.
Under the regulation, stablecoins — also referred to as “asset-referenced tokens” or “electronic money tokens” — face strict rules, such as daily transaction volume caps of $200 million for payments.
Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, has criticized the European regulation, citing a requirement that 60% of stablecoin reserves be held in cash deposits at multiple banks.
“Very few banks accept this type of business in Europe. It’s already very difficult to get just one!” Ardoino noted in an interview.
According to Ardoino, the company does not intend to be regulated under MiCA.
In contrast, Circle — the company behind the USD Coin (USDC) — recently announced its Euro-backed stablecoin, EURC, which is adapting to the new framework.
US retailer Costco Wholesale is taking a wide variety of steps to prepare for possible strikes next week at US ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, the company’s chief executive said on Sept 26.
Contingency plans in place include pre-shipping some products to get in holiday goods early and preparing to use different ports, Costco’s CEO Ron Vachris said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.
Companies that rely on ocean shipping are increasingly worried the International Longshoremen’s Association’s 45,000 members will strike on Oct 1 and close 36 ports that handle more than half of US ocean trade of products such as bananas, meat, prescription drugs, auto parts, construction materials and apparel.
If that happens, delays and costs could quickly cascade, threatening the US economy in the weeks ahead of the country’s presidential election, burdening already taxed global ocean shipping networks and foisting higher prices on consumers over time.
“We’ve cleared the ports, we’ve pre-shipped. We’ve done several different things that we could to get holiday goods in ahead of this time frame, and looked at alternate plans that we could execute with moving goods to different ports and coming across the country if needed,” Mr Vachris said.
Asked about bringing in goods early, he said, “We have done a little bit of everything you spoke about,” and added, “It could be disruptive, but how impactful, I can’t tell you... until we know what could happen out there.”
A prolonged strike could result in shortages of familiar items such as bananas, coffee and cocoa, which could translate to higher grocery prices over time.
It could also mean lost export sales of key agricultural products including beef, pork, chicken and eggs.
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