2 Oil Stocks Under $50 to Invest in Energy Like a Billionaire

Gasoline prices typically fall in the autumn and early winter as demand decreases and gasoline retailers switch to cheaper winter-blend fuels. Additionally, Americans take fewer trips during this period, further reducing demand. OPEC is expected to increase production in December, which could contribute to further price declines. These combined factors signal a potential for lower gas prices in the coming months.

What happens next to crude oil?

As gasoline demand wanes and temperatures cool in the Fall, oil traders should note the fuel market shift as gasoline retailers switch to winter-blend gasoline starting September 15. Winter-blend fuels are cheaper due to fewer environmental restrictions from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Still, the transition can temporarily drive prices higher as refineries and gasoline retailers adjust inventories. This brief price bump can present short-term trading opportunities for oil traders, particularly if weather events, like hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, disrupt production and supply chains, adding further volatility to gas prices during the late summer and early fall.

Unlike the mandatory Spring switch to summer-blend fuels, the Fall transition to winter blends is optional, yet many gasoline retailers opt for it to stay competitive in pricing. Traders should be aware that some gasoline retailers delay the switch until they have depleted their Summer-blend stocks. By the end of September into early October, oil traders can expect prices to decrease as demand subsides and more retailers shift to the cheaper winter blend.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report

We will examine two COT reports and describe what each shows about the oil market.

The first one is the original COT, the Legacy Report from the 1960s.

Coal decreased to a 7-week low of 137.90 USD/T. Over the past 4 weeks, Coal lost 5.96%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 14.85%.

Cotton futures settled the Friday session with contracts down 26 to 57 points across the board. December still saw a decent pop this week, up 194 points. The dollar index was down 226 points, with crude oil futures up just 29 cents/barrel.

The large managed money speculators were adding 6,827 contracts to their net short position as of 9/10 to 49,492 contracts.

Weekly Export Sales data total cotton export sale commitments at 4.764 million RB, which is the slowest since the 2016/17 marketing year. That is just 43% of the newly updated USDA export forecast, with the 5-year average for the current week at 53%.

The Seam ported 1,761 online cash cotton bale sales on Thursday, averaging 62.71 cents/lb. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged on September 12, leaving 265 bales of cert stocks. The Cotlook A Index was up 150 points on September 12 at 81.10 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) was slashed by 127 points on Thursday afternoon 56 cents/lb. It is good through next Thursday.

Dec 24 Cotton closed at 69.82, down 56 points,

Mar 25 Cotton closed at 71.24, down 57 points,

May 25 Cotton closed at 72.41, down 53 points

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Lean hog futures closed the Friday session with losses of a tick to 45 cent across most contracts. October was down another $1.05 on the week. The national average base hog price was reported at $76.00 on Friday afternoon even with the previous day. The CME Lean Hog Index was $85.35 on September 10, down 11 cents from the day prior.

Commitment of Traders data showed the managed money crowd trimming 1,348 contracts from their net long position as of September 10 to 37,712 contracts.

USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value was 28 cents lower in the Friday PM report at $93.90 per cwt. The loin, butt, and belly were the primals reported lower, with the other 3 up in a range from 53 cents to $2.70. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 2.571 million head for this week. That is well above the previous non-holiday week and 35,533 head larger than the same week last year.

Oct 24 Hogs closed at $78.450, down $0.450,

Dec 24 Hogs closed at $71.300, down $0.250

Feb 25 Hogs closed at $74.975, down $0.225,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Live cattle futures closed mixed on Friday, with front months steady to 37 cents lower and deferreds up 10 to 20 cents. October was up $2.475 on the week. Cash trade this week saw sales of $180-182 reported in the South this week, steady to $1 higher from last week, with the North steady to $1 higher at $181-182. Feeder cattle futures closed out the Friday session with contracts down 15 to 62 cents. September managed to head into the weekend with a $7.60 gain since last Friday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $1.42 at $243.32 on September 12.

Spec funds in live cattle futures and options added just 632 contracts to their net long position as of 9/10 to 38,690 contracts. In feeder cattle they added 1,473 contracts to their net long position, at 2,029 contracts by Tuesday

USDA wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower in the Friday PM report. Choice boxes were down $2.27 at $304.91, with Select $1.47 lower at $294.17. The Chc/Select spread narrowed to $10.74. That was the lowest value for Choice since the middle of May. USDA estimated this week’s federally inspected cattle slaughter at 620,000 head. That is well above the previous week due to the holiday but 11,200 head below the same week last year.

Oct 24 Live Cattle closed at $177.650, down $0.375,

Dec 24 Live Cattle closed at $178.500, down $0.100,

Feb 25 Live Cattle closed at $179.600, down $0.000,

Sep 24 Feeder Cattle closed at $241.900, down $0.150,

Oct 24 Feeder Cattle closed at $239.125, down $0.625,

Nov 24 Feeder Cattle closed at $235.200, down $0.275,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.

Corn futures posted gains of 2 ½ to 7 ¼ cents in Friday, led by now nearby December, as September rolled off the board. That helped to propel Dec to a weekly gain of 7 cents from last Friday. The nearby Cash Corn from cmdtyView was up 7 ½ cents to $3.78 ½ on the day.

The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report showed specs in corn futures and options cutting another 44,077 contracts from their net short as of September 10. That stood at 132,134 contracts net short, the smallest since May and a drop of more than 220,000 contracts from the peak net short in July. Commercials added 31,709 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday to 107,349 contracts, with 29,185 additional shorts, implying producers were moving corn in that week.

Export Sales data shows total corn export commitments at 13.36 MMT, which is a 3-year high to begin the marketing year and 20% larger than a year ago. That is also 23% of USDA’s currently 2024/25 export projection, which does lag the 28% average pace.

Sep 24 Corn closed at $3.90 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash was $3.78 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.13 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.31, up 6 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash was $3.78 5/8, up 7 1/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policyhere.