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Market Picture

Crude oil gained around 2.5% on Monday after OPEC+ reported that it intends to delay the cartel’s production quota increase by one month from December. The November 2023 agreement calls for eight major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to voluntarily cut output by 2.2 million bpd.

This is another attempt by the cartel to reverse the downward price trend that has been in place since April. The decline is being driven by macroeconomic factors such as a slowdown in China and sluggish European demand. On the supply side, production increases outside the cartel stand out, including the US, which has produced a record 13.5 million bpd over the past three weeks.

Natural gas inventories, the closest substitute for oil, are at a near four-year high. The moving average, which smooths out intra-year fluctuations, has reached the 2016 and 2020 highs, indicating a glut of hydrocarbons in the world’s largest economy.

The struggle between deteriorating macroeconomic sentiment and the cartel’s desire to reduce supply has been an important feature for much of this year and remains so at present. In addition to this, there is a strong growth in alternative energy sources, which is somewhat unusual at a time of relatively low oil and gas prices.

Technical Analysis

The rally at the start of the new week closed the negative gap we saw a fortnight ago following the Israeli strike on Iran. Some traders see the gap closing as a reason to sell again, especially as oil remains below the 50- and 200-week moving averages on a weekly basis, an important signal of a long-term bearish trend.

While economics usually trumps OPEC geopolitics in the medium term, the cartel’s continued efforts point to a ‘support’ price that the cartel is trying to hold. If it succeeds, key levels for the bulls will be $75 for WTI (the area of the October highs and the 50-week average) and $80 (a key round level also targeted by the 200-week average).

U.S. Election Impact

FOMC Decision on Interest Rates

FX Market Impacts 

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

The countdown to the US presidential election is almost finished, with the polls opening on Tuesday. Market participants have been speculating about the economic agendas of both candidates for a while, trying to discount the likely market impact on the key asset classes. Putting the market analysis aside, the focus of this report is on the procedural aspect of November 5.

What is at stake on November 5?

Apart from the US presidency, with the new President officially taking over on January 20, 2025 when Inauguration Day occurs, 435 members of the House of Representative and 33 Senators will be elected. It is critical for the new president to have the support of the Congress in order to be able to implement his/her government plan. Otherwise, deadlock will ensue, tensions will remain high, with the usual political shenanigans taking place at every major issue, for example, during the debt ceiling discussion.

How is the US president elected?

Voters at each state elect electors. On December 17, the Electoral College will convene and vote for the new President. There are 538 electors with both Harris and Trump aiming to secure the support of at least 270 electors. It is worth nothing that these electors are expected to vote in favour of the candidate that earned the highest number of votes on November 5 at the state they represent.

When does voting stop?

In the majority of US states, polls will close at around 9pm ET (2am GMT). Alaska is the last to close its polls at 1am ET (6am GMT) while California has a deadline of 11pm ET (4am GMT).

Which are the safe states, where an upset could signal a surprise election result?

There are some traditional states that tend to consistently vote for Democrats or Republicans since the 1970s. For example, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming are called red states for usually voting in favour of the Republican candidate.

On the flip side, California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington tend to support the Democratic candidate.

Which are the key battleground states?

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will determine the election outcome. They have a total of 93 electors. In 2020, President Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, losing only North Carolina to Trump.

In 2016, Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin, but lost Nevada to Clinton.

Why TV channels “call” the states?

The Associated Press and the big US channels tend to “call” the US states for one of the two main candidates fairly quickly. This is based on actual votes, exit polls and their own analysis of the remaining votes to be counted. This is not the official result, but it is considered a very secure estimate.

Does it take a long time to count the votes? 

Most states allow absentee voting and voting by mail, and they have the right to count these votes during the time that polls are still open, sometimes ever before November 5. This means that once polls are closed, they can quickly announce the results of these votes. Word of caution though as these early figures might not be representative of the final result.

Colorado, Florida and South Carolina are among the states that tend to quickly count their votes. Others like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota are usually slow in counting the cast ballots.

Who declares the results?

There is no single federal agency that tallies the results and declares the winners. This means that states will declare, officially announce the winner, wherever counting has completed. For most states this declaration will take place in the 12-24 hour window after polls close, but it can take much longer in certain cases.

When will we know the final result?

If one of the two main candidates does not have a clear lead in the swing states, it could take a few days for the final result to be declared. For example, in 2020, Biden was officially declared the winner when the Pennsylvania result was confirmed, four days after the election day.

Additionally, most of these key states automatically recount all the votes if the margin is less than 0.5% or 1%, potentially postponing the final result even further.