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Amgen Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?
Zacks
Amgen
+0.49%
Exelixis
+0.67%
Rocket Pharmaceuticals
+0.47%
Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Warrant
+4.00%
Denali Therapeutics
-1.19%We expect Amgen AMGN to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Feb. 4, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 9.20%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $8.84 billion and $5.01 per share, respectively.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Factors to Consider for Amgen
Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Prolia, Kyprolis and Blincyto, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to continue to decline due to higher rebates to support expanded access.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Blincyto sales is pegged at $1.18 billion, $551.0 million, $413.0 million and $339.0 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha and Evenity sales are pegged at $1.05 billion, $542.9 million, $418.3 million and $316.3 million, respectively.
In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth.
Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $274.4 million and $102.9 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tezspire and Tavneos is $285 million and $93 million, respectively.
The U.S. launch of Imdelltra (tarlatamab), approved for pre-treated advanced small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in May 2024, is progressing well. The drug recorded sequential growth of 200% in the third quarter. The growth momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter.
Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to flat volumes and declining prices. Otezla sales were soft in the last three reported quarters. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $611.0 million, while our estimate is $605.4 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $861.0 million, while our estimate is $874.5 million.
Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have pulled up the top line.
In the fourth quarter, Tepezza sales are expected to have been flat to down slightly on a sequential basis. In order to improve Tepezza sales, Amgen has been reorganizing and expanding its sales force to reach out to low clinical activity score (CAS) patients. Amgen expects to launch the drug in Japan, where it was recently approved, in 2025. An update is expected on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products are expected to have hurt the top line.
Adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the third quarter, consistent with historical trends. This is due to R&D costs being the highest in the fourth quarter.
Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity. In November 2024, Amgen announced the much-awaited 52-week top-line data from a phase II study on MariTide. The data from the double-blind dose-ranging study showed that in people who were obese or overweight but without type II diabetes, MariTide resulted in up to approximately 20% average weight loss over 52 weeks without reaching a weight loss plateau. However, the weight loss reduction was at the lower end of investor expectations of 20-25%, which hurt AMGN stock’s price.
AMGN’s Earnings Surprise History
This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.10%, on average.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Amgen’s stock has declined 10.6% in the past year compared with a decrease of 11.4% for the industry.
What Our Model Says for AMGN
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +3.15% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.16 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.01. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Exelixis’ stock has risen 48.9% in the past year. Exelixis beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. EXEL has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.52%, on average. Exelixis is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 11.
Rocket Pharmaceuticals RCKT has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Rocket Pharmaceuticals’ stock has declined 63.8% in the past year. RCKT beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while delivering in-line numbers in the remaining quarter. On average, RCKT delivered an earnings surprise of 8.33% in the last four quarters.
Denali Therapeutics DNLI has an Earnings ESP of +19.30% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Denali’s stock has risen 34.1% in the past year. DNLI missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while beating on the remaining occasion. On average, Denali witnessed an earnings surprise of 0.47% in the last four quarters.
Zacks Investment Research
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