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In October, employment rose by +15.9k (0.1%), slightly below Westpac’s forecast of +20k and under the market consensus forecast of +25k. This marks the softest monthly increase in employment since May, when a modest decline was reported, and a departure from the above-trend strength from more recent months – an average of around +50k per month over the September quarter. On a three-month average basis, employment growth has eased slightly from 2.9%yr in September to 2.8%yr in October. That was enough to see the employment-to-population ratio ease marginally from 64.44% to 64.36%, although both figures still round to a record high 64.4%.

We interpret October’s employment print as a normalisation from above-trend momentum that emerged over the last few months. While one month certainly does not mark a trend, there does not seem to be any ‘suspicious’ causes behind the October step-down in employment growth that could point to an unwind next month. Population growth is slowing broadly as expected, and that will continue to see the monthly prints for employment ease accordingly – a result of the Labour Force Survey’s design of estimating sample ratios and ‘scaling’ the implied level changes to population growth.

One factor worth bearing in mind near-term is that employment growth was much stronger than expected during the October-November periods of 2022 to 2023. This reflected an anticipation of stronger demand in the lead-up to Black Friday Sales and the Christmas spending season, as households concentrated spending during discount periods to alleviate cost-of-living pressures. However, this time around it may be the case that with cost-of-living pressures easing, population growth slowing and a greater capacity for employers offer more hours rather than expand headcount, the Black Friday/Christmas impetus is not as materially positive as it was in previous years.

Most analysts – including Westpac – anticipated the participation rate to hold flat at its record high of 67.2% in October. In the event, the participation rate fell by just 0.04ppt, but it was enough for it to round down from 67.2% to 67.1% (from 67.18% to 67.14%). This is still a result certainly worth celebrating – a near record proportion of the population actively engaging in the labour market. The future path for labour force participation depends critically on the balance of cyclical forces and the clear structural uptrend supported by demographic factors. One month’s result is not entirely informative, and whether a gradual downtrend in labour force participation ensues – as we anticipate – remains to be seen.

The tick-down in participation saw the labour force expand by +24.2k, more than the increase in employment recorded in the month, therefore implying a slight increase in the level of unemployment (+8.3k). Overall, this was not enough to see the unemployment rate budge from its current level of 4.1%, as it has done for the past three consecutive months.

The RBA are also closely monitoring developments across other measures of labour force slack and the dynamics around average hours worked – if there were to be clearer signs of easing labour market conditions, it would likely be initially more apparent in these more sensitive measures of underutilisation.

Growth in monthly hours worked rose 0.1%mth in October and 2.2%yr on a three-month average basis, matching the increase in employment and therefore implying no change to average hours worked. Employers have used average hours as a lever to adjust their labour demand quickly in response to rapidly evolving economic conditions over the past two years. With the large swings in average hours mostly behind us, there is no clear evidence of a renewed weakening in labour demand via average hours. As seen in the chart below, average hours are still tracking broadly in line with the historical downtrend that has been in place since the 1970s.

Other measures of underutilisation are also not ringing any alarm bells at this stage. The underemployment rate – which measures those that are willing and able to work more hours than they currently do – fell once again from 6.3% in September to 6.2% in October, the lowest result since April 2023. The underutilisation rate, which combines both unemployment and underemployment, held flat at 10.4%, the lowest since March 2024. Youth unemployment also remains well below the levels observed prior to the pandemic, currently at 9.2%.

Today’s data is a reminder that the Australian labour market remains in relatively solid health and is gradually becoming more balanced. With employment growth slowing broadly in line with population growth and average hours holding steady, there are few signs that labour demand is capitulating to an extent that warrants concern. While virtually all measures of underutilisation are signalling that labour market conditions remain somewhat tight, yesterday’s wages data suggests this is not translating to stronger wage inflation pressures. On balance, today’s update will see the RBA continue to remain focused on the dynamics around underlying inflation.

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said Thursday the government will take active steps, if necessary, to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

Since Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last week, the local currency has been fluctuating around the psychologically significant level of 1,400 won against the U.S. dollar.

In a meeting with other economic policymakers in Seoul, Choi said that if there is excessive volatility in the financial and FX markets, the government will promptly and effectively implement market stabilization measures.

The minister had previously issued a similar message in mid-April, when the exchange rate surged to around 1,400 won against the greenback due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The finance minister also emphasized the importance of maintaining strong cooperation and a response system as part of the government's contingency plans.

Attendees at the meeting expressed a shared view that uncertainties surrounding policy changes during the transition period before the new U.S. administration takes office are also contributing to market instability, the ministry said.

Trump has vowed to impose high tariffs on imported goods, implement protectionist measures and introduce tax cuts, which experts believe could lead to an increase in the U.S. budget deficit, higher inflationary pressure and a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions. (Yonhap)

Source: Koreatimes

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SAN FRANCISCO – Donald Trump’s US election victory – and Elon Musk’s role in helping to get him elected – has sent many users of Musk’s social networking service X, formerly known as Twitter, leaving for alternatives.

One of the key beneficiaries of the exodus has been Bluesky, which rocketed to the No. 1 spot on the Apple App Store’s US chart this week.

Bluesky’s user base has doubled in the past 90 days. On Nov 13, the company said it had gained 1 million new sign-ups in the past week alone, bringing it to more than 15 million total users.

What is Bluesky and how does it work?

Bluesky is a social media service with a lot of the same features you might find on X, Facebook and Instagram. Users can create a profile, follow other accounts, like and re-share posts, and send private messages. Bluesky users have the option to see several different feeds based on their interests. They can see traditional feeds made up of posts from the people they choose to follow, for example, or scroll through feeds focused on certain topics, such as science, gardening or “cat pics.”

How many people are on Bluesky?

Bluesky has more 15 million total users and has added more than 1.25 million new sign-ups since the US election on Nov 5. It’s still relatively small compared to competitors such as X and Meta’s Threads, but it’s growing quickly; Bluesky had only 10 million total users in September. One week after the election, it was the top ranked “free” app in Apple’s App Store.

Who is behind Bluesky?

Bluesky started as more of a project than a company. In late 2019, then-Twitter chief executive officer Jack Dorsey announced Bluesky, which was funded by Twitter, as an independent effort to build a new social networking protocol. Dorsey didn’t like that the major social networks – including his own – were all owned and controlled by private companies. A social networking protocol, by contrast, would serve as a technology layer that anyone could build a network on top of, theoretically creating more competition and user freedom. Email is an example of an internet protocol – anyone can make an email service, and send emails that can be received by people who use other providers.

That project morphed into a formal company called Bluesky in 2021. Dorsey left the Bluesky board last year. He has since criticized Bluesky for becoming a more traditional company instead of just creating a technology protocol.

Twitter stopped financing Bluesky once Musk bought the company in late 2022, but Bluesky raised a US$15 million ($20 million) funding round in October.

How do users sign-up?

Bluesky is available to download on both Apple’s App Store and the Google Play store for Android users. Bluesky was initially invite-only when it first launched – executives said that was to keep the service from crashing or experiencing technical glitches, not to be exclusive – but it has since opened the network to anybody and you no longer need a code to join.

So is Bluesky the next Twitter?

It’s too soon to say, but it has a long way to go. Not only is Bluesky significantly smaller than X, which is having its own usage spike, Musk says, but other competitors have also emerged. Threads, another X clone from Meta Platforms, has 275 million monthly users in less than 18 months, and may soon start running ads. Other social networking services like Mastodon have also had brief moments of popularity before falling out of the conversation. Bluesky is having a moment, but it’s unclear if the company will be able to sustain it. 

Source: Straitstimes

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in October, in line with the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI ticked up to 2.6% (from 2.4% in September).

Energy prices were flat last month, as a pullback in gasoline prices (-0.9% m/m) was offset by an uptick in electricity costs (+1.0% m/m). Food prices rose 0.2% m/m, following a sharp 0.4% m/m gain in September.

Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.3% m/m, matching the two prior-months’ gains. The twelve-month change held steady at 3.3%, while the three-month annualized shot higher to 3.6% (from 3.1% in September).

Price growth on core services were up 0.35% m/m, in line with September’s gain. On a year-ago basis, services prices are up 4.8% or roughly two percentage points above its pre-pandemic pace of growth when inflation was running closer to 2%.

Primary shelter costs rose 0.4% m/m, following a gain of 0.3% m/m in September. While well off its 2023 highs of over 8%, primary shelter costs remain elevated at 5.1% y/y.

Price growth of non-housing services inflation (aka “supercore”) remained firm, rising 0.3% m/m – roughly in line with the average gain recorded over the past three months. The continued strength was primarily driven by another strong gain in airline fares (+3.2% m/m), recreational services (+0.7% m/m) and to a lesser extent, medical care services (+0.4% m/m).

Core goods prices were flat in October, after registering a gain the month prior. A pullback in apparel (-1.5% m/m) and education & communication goods (-1.1% m/m) helped to offset a sharp gain in used vehicle prices (+2.7% m/m).

Key Implications

Progress on the inflation front has slowed to a snail’s pace in recent months as services inflation is looking increasingly sticky, while much of the disinflationary pressure from fallings goods prices is now in the rear-view mirror. All of this suggests that the last leg lower on returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target is going to occur much more gradually.

From the Fed’s standpoint, there was little in this morning’s data to get excited about. The three-month annualized rate of change on core inflation jumped to a six-month high, while the six-and-twelve-month rates of change held steady at 2.6 and 3.3% respectively. With inflation progress stalling but the economy still holding up, November’s employment report will carry added significance for whether the FOMC continues cutting at its next meeting in December or opts to pause. Following this morning’s release, markets are pricing a 70% probability that the Fed cuts next month.