Baker Hughes, Woodside Energy to Develop Power Generation Tech Using Net Power Platform

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 46.4 points lower, down 0.57%.

The performance of gold stocks helped sneak the broader Materials (XMJ) (+0.18%), sector to a gain, but to be fair, a solid rebound in base metals and iron ore stocks helped offset ex-dividend losses from BHP Group (BHP) (-0.78%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-2.2%).

Gains in aluminium, copper (strong gain – see tonight’s ChartWatch below for technical analysis), lead, and zinc helped the likes of South32 (S32) (+3.7%) and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+4.8%) to sector-leading performances.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, Brent Crude Oil, and Copper in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Thu 06 Mar 25, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 46.4 points lower at 8,094.7, 1.05% from its session high and just 0.23% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 149 to 123.

It looked like yet another down day today, but it probably didn’t feel so bad when you logged into check your portfolio today.

That’s because today’s 46-point fall belies the fact that over 40 stocks went ex-dividend today, paying out tens of millions of dollars to shareholders. The passing of ownership of a company’s cash to its shareholders via a dividend must be reflected at least to some extent in a lower stock price / market capitalisation.

This inevitably translates into ASX 200 index points...and don’t forget about franking credits.

So, it looked far worse than it actually was today, and the market breadth (149⬆️ vs 123⬇️) probably tells a better story of the underlying strength across the ASX today – albeit only still very modest!

For what its worth (because nearly all sectors were impacted by dividends), the Gold (XGD) sub-index (+2.7%) was the clear standout performer today – good news for those who have chosen to follow that trend – as West African Resources (+12.0%) popped after delivering its full year results.

The performance of gold stocks helped sneak the broader Materials (XMJ) (+0.18%), sector to a gain, but to be fair, a solid rebound in base metals and iron ore stocks helped offset ex-dividend losses from BHP Group (-0.78%) and Rio Tinto (-2.2%).

Gains in aluminium, copper (strong gain – see tonight’s ChartWatch below for technical analysis), lead, and zinc helped the likes of South32 (+3.7%) and Sandfire Resources (+4.8%) to sector-leading performances. Also consider that S32 went ex-dividend $0.054 fully franked – so it actually did substantially better than its +3.7% today.

Taking the bus to Struggletown, and first stop was surprise, surprise, Energy (XEJ) (-2.9%). It wasn’t all “lower commodity prices overnight” stuff though, as much of the loss was due to sector heavyweight Woodside Energy (-4.7%) going ex-dividend.

The XEJ’s cousin, Utilities (XUJ) (-2.1%) was next-worst – but this loss was also largely sector heavyweight specific – as AGL Energy (-4.1%) sold off after a rating downgrade to equal-weight from overweight by Morgan Stanley (see Broker Moves for more details).

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Is that the start of the rebound? 🤔 (click here for full size image)

We’ve been covering this daily for the last week as the Comp has plunged towards the long term trend ribbon. Last night's interesting and important candle earns it another look. 👀

Like it did during August-24’s test, the price action on the Comp tipped just below the long term trend ribbon before bouncing tentatively Tuesday, and far more confidently last night.

That last, Wednesday candle with its white body and downward pointing shadow, is a bona fide demand-side candle. The fact that it also took out the previous session’s high (in addition to its corresponding higher low) sets 17956 as a point of demand.

Given 17956's position in relation to the long term trend ribbon – it means the bulls unequivocally do not want to see the Comp close below it – ever!

The supply-side is no doubt still lurking and assessing their options, but it does appear from the last candle the demand-side sees some value in the market and is therefore happy to put some capital back to work.

Great. But entire last drive lower in prices is largely irrelevant going forward.

What matters from here is confirmation.

Either:

• Confirmation that the demand-side remains in control of long term price action, and the bull market is intact.

Or:

• Confirmation that the supply-side has grappled control of long term price action, and the bull market is history.

In the first case, we must see:

• A return to rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., demand reinforcement and supply removal)

• Closing above short and long term trend ribbons and those trend ribbons acting as areas of dynamic demand

• A predominance of demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows).

In the second case, we must see:

• A continuation of falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply reinforcement and demand removal)

• Closing below short and long term trend ribbons and those trend ribbons acting as areas of dynamic supply

• A predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows).

In the first case:

• ✅ Back in the bull. Hooray for longs!

In the second case:

• ❌ Not in the bull. Either an equilibrium market where price action moves sideways for an extended period of time, or a bear market, where…well – you know what! 📉

It’s crunch time. The price action and candles over the next few days and potentially up to weeks will define the path of least resistance for the next few months and possibly beyond. Stay alert, not alarmed! Let the price action and candles guide you! 🧐

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Investors over a barrel with respect to the crude oil price 🛢️ (click here for full size image)

We’ve been tracking the demise of the ASX Energy sector for some time in Evening Wraps, and via ChartWatch ASX Scans with respect to individual stocks.

Stocks like Woodside Energy Group , Santos , Whitehaven Coal , New Hope Corporation , Coronado Global Resources , Stanmore Resources , Boss Energy , Paladin Energy , Ampol , and Viva Energy Group have each regularly featured in my Downtrends lists. 📉

Followers of that list know you prefer not to see the stocks you own in it.

I am not a prognosticator, I am a trend follower, so the appearance of any stock in my uptrends or downtrends lists is neither an endorsement or a death sentence – but history demonstrates the trends I identify often continue.

One of the reasons for the XEJ’s struggles is the chart above of Brent Crude – but we’ve also covered here in ChartWatch cascading downtrends in the charts of metallurgical and thermal coal, and uranium. That’s a decent chunk of change when it comes to what the sector is best at doing.

More broadly, however, as we have noted in the past, Brent is largely rangebound between 63.06-85.04. This latest drive has placed it closer to the bottom end of that range than the top, but I also note the prevalence of a likely solid zone of demand at 67.31-68.03.

Last night’s downward pointing shadow (second from last candle as last candle is live – so discount it) suggests there is indeed some degree of excess demand down here.

As noted in the Comp analysis above, a big/fast move is interesting – sure – but confirmation is now the key. Can the demand-side confirm their tentative return commenced in yesterday’s candle with a white-bodied showing, or at the very least another downward pointing shadow (preferably a long one).

If this is the case, then a rebound towards 73.75 is possible, with some resistance likely around the last trough at 71.92.

If this is not the case, and we see continued supply-side candles, then 67.31-68.03 is likely to be more meaningfully probed. If that area goes, then we’ll likely set up a date with 65.39. There’s no point looking any further out than that. 🤔

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Nothing to see here...just another false start! 🚫 (I'm using reverse psychology! 🧠) (click here for full size image)

Time for some good news! Copper appears to be doing another “Hey look at me, I’m the next big thing!” move. 🤦

We’ve fallen for these in the past in ChartWatch, only to be disappointed. Does last night’s massive white candle mean this latest move has legs? (Again, discount that tiny last candle – it’s today’s live session)

For what it’s worth, I think so. That’s a nice showing from the demand-side, and it came at the perfect time and price – bouncing off the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon as well as the static 4.4355-4.5165 zone.

Of course, there’s once again the issue of 4.8775-4.9060. If last night’s demand-side price action continues, we’ll be setting up for the fourth serious test of this critical supply zone.

I like to think of each next test of a supply zone as weakening it somewhat. Usually (big usually here…) the probability of breaking through increases with each next attempt.

Again – not a prognosticator – so I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself…but let’s see how the next few candles fall. Demand-side candles right up to, or even into a supply zone, are a great indication that it’s no longer that.

Conversely, if we see the black ones, or the ones with upward pointing shadows probing the zone but ultimately demonstrating the demand-side could not hold in there – the probability of another failure increases substantially.

I think I’ve circled all the way back to: Let the price action and candles guide you! 🦮

Economy

Today

• AUS Building Approvals January

  • +6.3% m/m actual vs -0.1% m/m forecast and +0.7% m/m in December

  • +14% p.a. growth driven by units (+13% m/m and whopping +41% p.a.!)

  • Building industry is a big employer, and building houses stimulates demand for both raw materials and household goods – so today's data is a strong sign of current economic growth – but also of likely strong growth to come

  • The data will weight on the RBA's next interest rate cut decision

Later this week

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Refinancing Rate & Statement (2.65% forecast vs 2.9% present)

• 00:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Data February

  • Employment Change: +156,000 forecast vs +143,000 in January

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in January

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in January

Latest News

Uranium boe pdn

Boss Energy or Paladin Energy? ASX uranium sector expert views

Thu 06 Mar 25, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Technical Analysis

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Fortescue, IDP Education, Domino's Pizza, Evolution Mining, Adriatic Metals

Thu 06 Mar 25, 9:30am (AEDT)

Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set to rise as Trump tariff reprieve gives hope for more concessions

Thu 06 Mar 25, 8:46am (AEDT)

Market Wraps ad8 apx

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dumps again as WDS, STO and Co. trade to 3-year lows, COL and WOW dividends drag

Wed 05 Mar 25, 6:03pm (AEDT)

Lithium igo ltr

PLS, MIN, IGO and LTR face “more challenging” lithium environment says Morgan Stanley

Wed 05 Mar 25, 12:03pm (AEDT)

Technical Analysis 4dx armr

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Santos, Mineral Resources, Champion Iron, Macquarie Technology, Global X Gold ETF

Wed 05 Mar 25, 9:30am (AEDT)

More News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.5% EBR Systems (EBR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +11.9% West African Resources (WAF) - WAF Delivers $246 Million NPAT for 2024, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.8% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, possibly due to the substantially better than expected building approvals data…but grasping at straws here! 🤔

• +7.6% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +7.3% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +7.2% Orthocell (OCC) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.7% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.7% Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD) - No news 🤔.

• +6.6% Duxton Water (D2O) - D2O Executes $121.3M Sale of Water Entitlements.

• +5.5% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +5.3% Myer (MYR) - No news, initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley with a price target of $1.10.

• +5.1% Firefly Metals (FFM) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +5.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news 🤔.

• +5.0% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +4.8% Sandfire Resources (SFR) - Becoming a substantial holder (Principal Global Investors), general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Integral Diagnostics (IDX) - Change in Director's Interest Notice - Dr Ian Kadish and Change in Director's Interest Notice - Toby Hall (2 x on market purchases 💰💰), upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi.

• +4.6% Cochlear (COH) - No news, upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi and price target raised to $300.00 from $290.00.

Trading lower

• -11.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Response to ASX Price Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.4% Appen (APX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.3% Mesoblast (MSB) - Mesoblast Added to S&P ASX200 Index (hello short sellers! 👋), fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -7.5% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) - No news since 04-Mar CLINUVEL Unveils Vitiligo Program for AAD 2025, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -5.7% Novonix (NVX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% Woodside Energy Group (WDS) - No news, ex-div $0.831 fully franked.

• -4.7% Opthea (OPT) - Continued negative response to 03-Mar Opthea Announces Phase 2b Wet AMD Publication, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -4.1% Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) - No news, ex-div $0.31 fully franked.

• -4.1% AGL Energy (AGL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Utilities/Energy sectors today, downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley and price target cut to $11.88 from $12.66.

Broker Moves

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.320

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.25

• Alpha HPA (A4N)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

• Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.950

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.88 from $12.66

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $39.54 from $51.20

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

• Bega Cheese (BGA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.00

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.350 from $1.200

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $43.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.00

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.85

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.40

• Bubs Australia (BUB)

  • Retained at risk at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.155

• Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.950

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.38

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.30 from $8.10

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $300.00 from $290.00

• Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.50

• DGL Group (DGL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.480

• Elders (ELD)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45

• Emerald Resources (EMR)

  • Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50

• Graincorp (GNC)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.45

• Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.50

• Ioneer (INR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.300

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Initiated at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.60

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.350

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.37 from $9.50

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Initiated at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $200.00

• Myer (MYR)

  • Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.100

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $92.50 from $77.00

• Noumi (NOU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.250

• Nufarm (NUF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.40

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Initiated at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.70

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.60

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.70 from $10.00

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.65 from $3.30

• Rural Funds Group (RFF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.50 from $38.60

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $132.00

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $44.00 from $41.00

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.10

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.450 from $0.400

• Rox Resources (RXL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.560

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.55

• Select Harvests (SHV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.80

• Synlait Milk (SM1)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.470

• Technology One (TNE)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $30.50 from $29.50

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.55 from $2.00

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $201.00

Scans

Top Gainers

View all top gainers

Top Fallers

View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

View all RSI oversold

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 57.0 points lower, down 0.70%.

Not dissimilar themes from what we have become accustomed to on the ASX 200 today – stronger gold stocks and weaker energy stocks. On the latter, I note they traded to their worst levels in over three years today. 📉

Dividends were another major theme today, with sizeable payouts from several Consumer Staples stocks including major supermarket operators Coles Group (COL) and Woolworths (WOW). Dividends equal share price losses, and both lost substantial ground today as a result.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Wed 05 Mar 25, 5:28pm (AEDT)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 57.0 points lower at 8,141.1, roughly at the mid-point of the session's range, 0.56% from the low and 0.70% from the high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a convincing 78 to 196.

The Gold (XGD) sub-index (+0.50%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a modest rebound in the gold price overnight, and continued resilience in Asian trade today.

I note that several gold stocks made the gainers list in the Interesting Moves section below, and in particular stocks like West African Resources (+6.5%), Ora Banda Mining O (+4.9%), Black Cat Syndicate B (+4.7) have each appeared regularly in my ChartWatch ASX Scans Feature Uptrends for months.

I suspect, perusing their candles for today, they will each appear again in tomorrow’s update! 📈

Also avoiding the broader-market losses were the bond-proxy duo of Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.19%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.11%). They earned a reprieve from recent losses likely due to the fact that even though risk-free market yields steadied overnight (chart in ChartWatch section below), they remain 0.25% rate cut multiples below where they were just a couple of weeks ago.

All other major ASX sectors logged losses, the heaviest of which was suffered by Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-3.6%), as major constituents Treasury Wine Estates (-5.6%), Coles Group (-4.4%) and Woolworths (-3.9%) each went ex-dividend.

Elsewhere, perennial loser Energy (XEJ) (-1.7%) took another turn for the worse, trading to is lowest level in over three years as investors continued to sell down sector holdings in the wake of falls in crude oil and uranium prices. As far as I can tell, dividends were not to blame here (although I do note Woodside Energy (-1.5%) goes ex-div tomorrow).

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) – a woeful existence! 👎 (click here for full size image)

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.1%) and Financials (XFJ) (-0.95%) rounded out the list of worst performers at a sector level. Both sectors likely to bear the brunt of any perceived economic slowdown.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

⚠️ AMBER ALERT!!! ⚠️ (click here for full size image)

A far from convincing candle on the Comp Tuesday, and across the spectrum of major US stock indices.

Its upward pointing shadow shows early demand was quashed by continuing heavy supply. Investors still prefer the sidelines in the form of cash or bonds.

The most fascinating aspect of last night's trade was that last item…bonds. They too fell overnight (pushing risk-free market yields higher – which indicates that compared to stocks and bonds –cash was the big winner.

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield: Yields corresponds with bonds down... (click here for full size image)

So, we have over the last few weeks gone from:

Demand-side market (relatively strong economy + prospect of lower / benign rates outlook) = Demand for Stocks > Demand for Cash & Demand for Bonds

To:

Supply-side market (Trump Trade War / DOGE fears vs economy + prospect of lower rates outlook) = Demand for Stocks < Demand for Cash & Demand for Bonds

To:

Supply-side market (Trump Trade War / DOGE fears vs economy + prospect of lower rates outlook) = Demand for Cash > Demand for Stocks & Demand for Bonds

That last bit might appear only subtle – but it smacks of a market that just wants to be out of everything! Cash, as they say in the classics, is King 👑!

To be fair, though, looking at Tuesday’s candle, it did at least finish with a white body and a modest downward pointing shadow – a shadow that probed the lower depths to the long term trend ribbon.

So, the supply-side didn’t have it all their way – and that’s a smidge encouraging! 🤞

I have almost unanimously for the last 18 months, typed the word “uptrend” after the words “long term” and before the word “ribbon”.

As in: “long term uptrend ribbon”.

Note, about 3 sentences ago, I did not. As in, “long term trend ribbon”.

Yes, the “up” was omitted due to the fact the long term trend ribbon has transitioned to neutral (amber). I don’t think there’s much point in typing “long term neutral ribbon”, do you? 🤔

I will reiterate what I’ve said in the last few sessions since we entered the long term trend ribbon – we need a bounce – and we need it quick.

The longer we go without it, the more entrenched the desire to supply will become – and the more eroded the confidence among the demand-side that buying the dip (i.e., “Plan A”) is still the smartest thing to do.

White candles, downward pointing shadows – preferably big ones – preferably on some above average volume to tell us some big money soaked up some big supply. Tomorrow please, Mr. Market, or I fear we have a date with a far more sinister long term trend change! 🙏

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Not an amber alert yet...but likely not far away! 🔭 (click here for full size image)

Another day, another unconvincing display from either side of the market.

Sure the supply side closed us with a black candle for the tenth time out of the last 13 candles since that Valentines Day 8616 record high (now but a distant memory!).

But, for the second day straight, and really for arguably the fifth time in the last eight candles, the demand-side showed some fight and bought the dip.

So it's somewhat of a fighting retreat by the demand-side, then. Still, points is points and the XJO has far fewer of those since this last downward move began.

The short term downtrend ribbon, price action (lower peaks and lower troughs), and candles (predominantly supply-side, i.e., black bodied and or upward pointing shadows) all suggest short term supply-side control.

The long term uptrend remains intact, although I suspect it is the better part of a week of further declines before it will, like the Comp's trend ribbon, transition to neutral.

I'd argue that so far, the long term uptrend ribbon is attempting to do its job of acting as a point of dynamic demand – granted it could be doing it better.

The steady buying post-opening-dip over the last two sessions continues to give me hope that the demand-side can grapple back control around here for at least a few candles – if only to ultimately test and fail at now-heavy points of supply that exist all the way back up to 8616.

The first of those pressure points is likely the short term downtrend ribbon, presently around 8315-35, and then there's a couple of static points to contend with at 8353-66.

If I'm wrong, and we're about to crack – I suggest a close below 8051 puts us beyond a point of no return for the long term trend.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Forget amber...it's all red, red, red, for uranium 🚨 (click here for full size image)

Just a quick update here because I suspect the chart requires little extra analysis compared to our last update on it in the Evening Wrap on 17 February.

But I did refer to it in last night’s Wrap, noting that uranium stocks were belted even as the uranium price shown in the chart above was relatively flat.

As I ticked through my charts this morning, I noted that as of the latest Tuesday print, the uranium price has potentially begun yet another leg down.

Short term and long term downtrends are well intact here – and both continue to do an excellent job of acting as a zone of dynamic supply.

The price action is firmly set at lower peaks and lower troughs, indicating supply reinforcement and demand removal respectively.

Until I see signs of the opposite of the above, there’s no reason to think the prevailing uranium downtrends cannot continue. It will, however, be very interesting to see what happens at the historic 61.40 point of demand. 🧐

I hope my consistent analysis on the uranium price since it turned the corner early last year has helped guide your opinion on ASX listed uranium stocks – which have almost all appeared in my ChartWatch ASX Scans Feature Downtrends lists regularly over the past several months.

The old adage “The trend is your friend” can be substantially misleading if you're of the ignore the trend persuasion – because if this is the case – it might well be your worst enemy! 🤕

Economy

Today

• AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) December quarter

  • +0.6% q/q vs +0.5% q/q forecast and +0.3% q/q in September

• CHN Caixin Services PMI February

  • 51.4 vs 50.8 forecast and 51.0 in January

  • Readings over 50 indicate expansion in the sector, so the Chinese Services industry expanded at a faster rate than expected in February

Later this week

Thursday

• 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI February (53.0 forecast vs 52.8 in January)

• 11:30 AUS Building Approvals January (-0.1% forecast vs +0.7% in December)

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Refinancing Rate & Statement (2.65% forecast vs 2.9% present)

• 00:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Data February

  • Employment Change: +156,000 forecast vs +143,000 in January

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in January

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in January

Latest News

Lithium igo ltr

PLS, MIN, IGO and LTR face “more challenging” lithium environment says Morgan Stanley

Wed 05 Mar 25, 12:03pm (AEDT)

Technical Analysis 4dx armr

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Santos, Mineral Resources, Champion Iron, Macquarie Technology, Global X Gold ETF

Wed 05 Mar 25, 9:30am (AEDT)

Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX in for more pain after Dow, S&P 500 fall sharply on Trump tariffs

Wed 05 Mar 25, 8:58am (AEDT)

Market Wraps 360 bgl

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 down as Trump's tariff war smashes WDS, STO, uranium stocks

Tue 04 Mar 25, 6:33pm (AEDT)

Technical Analysis 4dx armr

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Telstra, Qantas, Megaport, EML Payments, Austal, Nuix, BetaShares Global Defence ETF

Tue 04 Mar 25, 9:30am (AEDT)

Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX set to slide after Trump confirms tariffs for Mexico, Cananda

Tue 04 Mar 25, 9:02am (AEDT)

More News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +15.1% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, possibly this glossy love-fest: Forbes Australia – likely stoked some early interest…and the rest was probably frantic short covering!

• +10.8% Appen (APX) - Becoming a substantial holder (UBS stock lending agreement usually means shorts getting added – so there's some push and shove going on more broadly speaking), but apart from that, today's move is simply consistent with recent extreme volatility.

• +10.0% Novonix (NVX) - No news 🤔 (no other non-company news I could find…decent volume, left field move given prevailing trends. Interesting…perhaps some VUL shorts getting called and having to knock their exposure here also!?).

• +6.8% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.5% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) - Continued positive response to 04-Mar CLINUVEL Unveils Vitiligo Program for AAD 2025.

• +5.6% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news 🤔, (seems to be consistently avoiding ongoing losses elsewhere in the sector).

• +5.2% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +5.0% Insignia Financial (IFL) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +4.9% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

-13.3% Opthea (OPT) - Continued negative response to 03-Mar Opthea Announces Phase 2b Wet AMD Publication, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📉

-11.1% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📉

-6.4% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-5.6% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) - No news, ex-div $0.20 70% franked explains some of the move, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-5.4% Audinate Group (AD8) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder (State Street slipping below 5% on this notice but has been active recently, remember: stock lend equates to short sellers!), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-5.0% IDP Education (IEL) - Change in substantial holding (ditto, stock lending = shorts!), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-4.9% Netwealth Group (NWL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-4.7% Kelsian Group (KLS) - No news since 03-Mar Response to ASX Aware Letter, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-4.7% Ampol (ALD) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-4.4% Alpha HPA (A4N) - Change of Director's Interest Notice.

-4.4% Coles Group (COL) - No news, ex-div $0.37 fully franked.

-4.3% Accent Group (AX1) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

-4.2% Redox (RDX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• ARN Media (A1N)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.580 from $0.640

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $74.00

• Articore Group (ATG)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.410 from $0.580

• Australian Vanadium (AVL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.080 from $0.060

• American West Metals (AW1)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.320

• Antipa Minerals (AZY)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.950 from $0.700

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.660 from $0.360

• Beforepay Group (B4P)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.15

• Credit Corp Group (CCP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.27

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $18.50

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Initiated at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $22.00

• Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.30

• Core Lithium (CXO)

  • Initiated at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.000

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $31.82

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $4.30 from $5.00

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.70

• Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.40

• Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.040

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.85 from $4.75

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.30

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.40

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.75 from $4.65

• NRW (NWH)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.95

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.60 from $4.15

  • Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.85

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.37

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.78

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $16.80 from $16.50

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $15.55 from $15.30

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $16.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.72 from $14.64

• Resource Development Group (RDG)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.015 from $0.027

• RAS Technology (RTH)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.780 from $1.660

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.60

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Shine Justice (SHJ)

  • Retained at buy at Carter Bar Securities; Price Target: $1.120 from $1.390

  • Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $0.810

  • Retained at overweight at QValue; Price Target: $1.250 from $1.500

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.330 from $1.300

• Supply Network (SNL)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.30 from $33.00

• Service Stream (SSM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.950

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $2.00

  • Retained at overweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.860

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.940 from $1.780

  • Retained at overweight at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.00

• Strickland Metals (STK)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.180

• Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.700

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.750

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.25

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.80

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.00

Scans

Top Gainers

View all top gainers

Top Fallers

View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

View all RSI oversold

Woodside Energy Group is facing a complaint lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) by activist group Market Forces, according to a Wednesday report by the Australian Financial Review.

The complaint alleges the company misled investors over oil demand forecasts and misrepresented key climate data to justify its $7.2 billion Trion oil project in Mexico, per the report.

The Trion project has faced criticism from environmental groups for its assumptions about future oil demand.

In response to MT Newswires' request for comment, a Woodside spokesperson said the company has not been notified of any ASIC lodgement and cannot comment on the reported claims but confirmed that Trion's expected returns exceed its capital allocation targets.

Market Forces did not immediately respond to a request for comment by MT Newswires.

(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)