Biden’s Sweeping Ai Order Scrapped by Trump in Regulatory Reset

Economic

Summary:

US President Donald Trump rescinded the Biden administration’s sweeping executive order regulating artificial intelligence (AI), marking a significant shift in federal oversight of the rapidly advancing technology.

The move, announced on Monday, immediately halts the implementation of key safety and transparency requirements for AI developers. Biden’s mandate, which was signed in 2023, had required leading AI companies to share safety test results and other critical information for powerful AI systems with the federal government. It also prompted the creation of the US AI Safety Institute, housed under the Commerce Department, to create voluntary guidelines and best practices for the technology’s use.

Trump didn’t immediately say exactly what would replace the order, but the administration is likely to take a more hands-off approach. Before returning to the White House, Trump had criticised Biden’s AI regulations as heavy-handed and hindering tech innovation. Trump also appointed David Sacks, a venture capitalist and longtime critic of tech regulation, as his crypto-AI czar.

With the repeal, Trump has thrown the future of US AI policy into question at a time when other countries are jockeying to set rules of the road for the disruptive technology. Last year, the European Union passed the AI Act, perhaps the most comprehensive guardrails for AI to date. The rules ban facial recognition and require strict oversight for “high-risk” AI used in sectors like healthcare and law enforcement, among other efforts.

The Trump administration is likely to carry on some elements of Biden’s policy, such as promoting US competitiveness on AI against China. Trump has framed the global race for AI leadership as a national security priority. He has also promised to boost domestic energy production to meet AI demands and secure foreign investments in the technology and related infrastructure projects.

During his first term, Trump issued two executive orders on AI that established a set of principles for safe and trustworthy government use of the technology and boosted funding for research and development.

Apart from Biden’s executive order, Washington has struggled to advance federal legislation on AI, spurring some states to develop their own frameworks.

In California, where many top AI companies are based, legislators have passed several bills related to generative AI, including a crackdown on AI deepfakes and more disclosures to bolster transparency for training data. Another controversial bill in the state that would’ve imposed a suite of safety requirements for AI companies was ultimately vetoed after fierce industry opposition.

Colorado and Illinois, meanwhile, have passed laws aimed at protecting people from algorithmic discrimination in hiring. New York will also require businesses to report AI-related job losses under a new order from the governor.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Owen Li

Commodity

There’s a secrecy to the specifics of our planned rendezvous, when I meet a sharp-suited Egon von Greyerz in Zurich airport’s arrivals hall. Hands shaken, he guides us out of a side entrance towards a car park in a quiet corner of the sprawling complex. Roughly 30,000 people work in and around the site; annually, tens of millions of passengers pass through here. Scarce few are aware of the existence, let alone the precise location, of our intended destination: a high-security, 350sqm vault somewhere deep beneath us. Inside it, vast quantities of gold, much of it belonging to von Greyerz, and a roster of his company’s exceedingly wealthy international clientele.

For more than 25 years, von Greyerz has been in this business: buying, selling and storing precious metals for the super-rich, all the while preaching his golden gospel. “We set certain minimum levels,” he says, “to invest through us: $400,000 to store gold in this Zurich vault, or our similar one in Singapore. We use another deep in the Swiss Alps: you’ll need to invest $5m to have anything there.”

It’s not just the uber-wealthy who are turning to gold, as its price continues to soar. Whether going big on bullion or nabbing a gold sovereign for a few hundred pounds to pension-plan, more and more of us are at it. Welcome to a new gold rush. Last year, the Royal Mint, which buys and sells gold bars and coins, had a “record year” for customer purchases. Revenues from its gold bullion sales were up 153% year on year. It’s not hard to see why. In 2024, gold prices increased by 28%. From the climate crisis to Trump’s presidency, and increasing geopolitical instability, the world feels ever more uncertain. As we’ve done for millennia, many are turning to gold in search of safety and security.

For a tiny percentage of investors, this vault in Zurich offers gold-plated security and safety. We are buzzed into an unassuming office building – beyond the ground floor lobby, a cargo warehouse for customs checks. Up on the second floor, most doors are adorned with airline emblems, or those of international logistics firms. There’s little remarkable about the small, open-plan space I’m shown into, save for a large television screen in one corner displaying a series of neatly divided squares, each livestreaming one of the countless CCTV cameras in and around the vault below.

Once seated in the office’s neat meeting room, we get to it. Many vaults globally, von Greyerz begins, are in airports: high security, easy export. Geographically, Switzerland is convenient for storage: 50–70% of global gold is refined here. My passport is taken by a smartly dressed staffer for a final identity check. No photos allowed; I’m asked not to share certain security details. “Our business model is streamlined and simple,” von Greyerz says. “We buy gold for our clients direct from refineries, always freshly minted. We handle all the practicalities of storing it safely. It’s the same process in reverse if you want to sell. Gold has a global market value, known as its paper or spot price. The cost of physical gold is always a little higher, taking into account production costs. We add a small mark-up, too.” The vaults used aren’t owned by von Greyerz. “Given we buy and sell, an independent company storing is necessary: our clients, should they wish to, can come and inspect their assets entirely of their own accord.”

Once given the green light, we descend, beeped into the restricted customs area with its gun-wielding guards. Codes are entered; passes presented. Down a sterile staircase, along a dim, strip-lit tunnel and through a metal detector. Any issues, the alarm system immediately alerts nearby armed airport police. “We actively don’t have armed guards in the vault,” says von Greyerz, “because they can be a liability and turn on you. Few staff, who you know, are better than an army of people. Americans always expect men with machine guns to be stationed outside. That’s not our way.”

I ask the value of what’s stored ahead of us. It’s confidential. Are we talking millions? Tens of millions? Hundreds of millions? Von Greyerz smiles, but his lips won’t loosen. “All I can say is it’s more than whatever you think.” For context, a standard 12.5kg gold bar, the ones you’ll recognise from films, would set you back about £880,000.

Doors slam shut. I’m directed to remain behind a red line, as a heavy hatch is opened. Beyond a lattice of grills, a 130sqm cavern. Sandwiched between wooden crates are layers of large, exposed bars of silver. That’s standard in storage. The walls beyond are lined with shelves, upon which are piles of sealed grey-and-blue boxes: inside them, the gold. In an adjoining room, various treasures are brought out for our examination. First, britannias: 1oz gold coins stamped with a profile of King Charles. “In 2002,” says von Greyerz, “when we first invested in gold, these were worth £200. Now, it’s £1,850.” That was in June 2024, during my vault visit; as of early January 2025, a Britannia is worth over £2,200. Next, a box filled with 100g bars. Rectangular, with round edges. Finally, a pile of 1kg bars, circa £70,000 a piece.

Later, over lunch in Zurich’s old town, von Greyerz sets out his stall. “I’ve always been interested,” he says, “in understanding risk and protecting against downside.” He spent a few years working in the Swiss banking sector before joining a fledgling Dixons in 1972. In London, he was a company man for 17 years, latterly as a board member and finance director. “I resigned at 42, wanting to do my own thing.” He set up shop with a private asset and investment company, advising wealthy families and personal clients.

“Financial risk in the market, then and now, is too high for comfort,” he says. “Global debt today is $315trn; it’s an inescapable bubble. Since the early 1700s, 500 currencies have died, most through hyperinflation. Governments invariably destroy the finances of a country. Empires fall. Global powers change. Today, we’re seeing an acceleration in debts and decline. I think we’re close to another collapse.” He’s written about the subject extensively. A new era, he believes, will be based on commodities, not currency. “So, I turned to wealth preservation and came to the conclusion – obvious, in my opinion – that gold is its ultimate form. Simply put, it’s the only money that has survived through human history. Every other currency, without exception, has failed. In every situation of panic or crisis, people have always looked to gold.”

Convinced, in the late 1990s, von Greyerz took this analysis to a select group of clients. “In 2002, with gold dropping down a little in price, I put everything I had into gold, and suggested those I worked with do the same. It was never meant to become a company selling services or encouraging others to follow. But people kept asking…” Now he has clients in more than 90 countries. “With monetary currency,” he says, “you hold your wealth in something which, with inflation, has a constantly depreciating value. Even with low interest rates, the purchase power of your cash is always going down.”

There’s a distinction, von Greyerz clarifies, between gold and other investments. “I don’t see gold as speculation,” he says, “as something to buy and sell based on market changes. Prices fluctuate, but the trajectory is clear.” In essence, for those he advises – and von Greyerz himself – gold is a hedge; insurance for if and when their other financial assets implode. If the banking system and international order collapses, – say, amid a climate catastrophe – bullion remains tangible when the numbers disappear from our screens. “Our clients are prepared, worried about the world. Entrepreneurs, freethinkers.” Mavericks, maybe. “But they’re not strange people, they’re thinking smartly. Few of our clients invest less than 20% of their wealth in gold. Many invest more, up to 50% even.” Globally, only 0.5% of wealth is stored in gold. “If that goes up to 1.5% even, its value will go up vastly.” Just 3,000 or so tonnes of gold are mined each year; it’s a finite resource, you can’t just, on tap, produce it. Some predict reserves in the ground will run out as soon as 2050. There are other reasons to halt mining before then: emissions and water footprint; and regular reports of the global mining industry’s human rights abuses.

Most of us, von Greyerz concedes, could never dream of purchasing quantities that would qualify for his services. “Still,” he argues, “anything is worth investing. I believe for wealth preservation purposes you should buy gold at any level you can afford. Plus, in the UK, there’s no capital gains tax on any profits made on gold coins that are British legal tender, such as britannias and sovereigns.” In January 1970, 1oz of gold was worth about £14. Today, it’s up more than 15,000%.

Talk of brass tacks alone fails to capture the reality of gold’s enigmatic and enduring allure. Piles of cash, stocks and shares, or say, a lump of copper, would struggle to similarly stir the senses. Other metals are shiny; so why gold? Andrea Ferrero has been a professor of economics at Trinity College, Oxford, for a decade. Previously, he was an economist at the New York Federal Bank. “The starting point of gold’s role,” Ferrero says, “isn’t obvious. Its universal value can be put down to gold having a role in producing luxury goods and other commodities.” Traditionally, gold had few practical applications, its purpose purely cosmetic. “There’s its relative scarcity – we’ve discovered most of the gold, even with active searches. Plus, there are recent commentaries about the role of gold in industry, processors or other chips and technology. Industrial application might be another reason its value is going up.”

We should also look, Ferrero continues, to economic history. For centuries, gold played a major role in both domestic and international monetary systems: the first gold coins were struck on the order of King Croesus of Lydia (today part of Turkey), around 550BC. By the late 19th century, many of the world’s major currencies were fixed to gold at a set price per ounce: the gold standard. “This anchoring allowed for exchange rate stability. Today,” says Ferrero, “we live in the legacy of that system: the main role of gold is still hedging, a safe haven commodity.”

Source:The guardian

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Cohen

Economic

The new normal for any ASEAN Chair is the expectation of having to manage a crisis, if not multiple crises, amid an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment. The Myanmar conflict and South China Sea crisis will have repercussions for ASEAN throughout 2025.

The Myanmar crisis is the most severe test of ASEAN’s internal unity to date. In the absence of a common position, the grouping’s approach to the crisis remains its most divisive issue, with some members keen to bring Myanmar back into the fold as quickly as possible, while others insist on staying true to a ‘Myanmar-owned, Myanmar-led’ process. Given the divergent interests of ASEAN member states and that of key external partners — such as China’s — support for the junta’s election plans, as the 2025 ASEAN Chair, Malaysia would need to carefully balance and engage stakeholders with parity.

The South China Sea is becoming a serious potential flashpoint for ASEAN, with severe repercussions for global security and trade. 2024 was marked by episodes of heightened tensions and provocations between China and the Philippines which are likely to continue in 2025 and possibly worsen.

Malaysia should use its chairmanship to elevate confidence-building measures and preventive diplomacy at the ASEAN–China level to reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea. As a claimant state, Malaysia has direct stakes and would be well-placed to start the ball rolling. But given Malaysia’s significant trade relations with China, it remains to be seen how much leverage Malaysia has. Malaysia’s best course of action will be to keep the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations channel open.

As 2025 ASEAN Chair, Malaysia faces heightened geopolitical tensions, increased economic fragmentation, rising protectionism, nationalism, revisionism and consequences of the growing China–US rivalry in the region.

Of these issues, the most concerning is the United States’ unpredictable turn towards insularism and increasingly protectionist measures. Trump’s ability to disrupt the liberal international order is alarming for many moderate countries of the Global South that are used to operating in a stable global order that respects international law and promotes free trade.

But Malaysia–US bilateral relations have been tense under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim largely due to the US position on the Gaza war which runs counter to Malaysia’s support for the Palestinian cause. This is juxtaposed with the excellent relationship that Malaysia currently enjoys with China. With Malaysia as Country Coordinator for ASEAN-China relations until 2027, it is likely that Malaysia may place more emphasis on ASEAN–China relations and less on developing ASEAN–US relations at a time when the incoming Trump administration is showing signs of disinterest.

Malaysia has formally invited China to attend the ASEAN–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in May 2025. This proposal took observers by surprise as the first ASEAN–GCC Summit was only in October 2023. It is unclear what China’s role will be at the second ASEAN–GCC Summit, but the rationale behind this proposal could be to build on China’s deep economic linkages with both regions to find greenfield opportunities. This summit will also give Anwar an opportunity to showcase Malaysia’s leadership in South–South cooperation, as evident in Malaysia’s stated ambitions to join BRICS.

Malaysia’s best bet is to continue to drive deeper regional economic integration. Notwithstanding Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on friends and foes alike, an economically integrated ASEAN yields many benefits. To ASEAN’s credit, despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shocks in recent years, ASEAN has continued with key upgrades to make ASEAN’s economic instruments fit-for-purpose. These upgrades include the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement 3.0, the ASEAN Trade-in-Goods Agreement and the expansion of the ASEAN Single Window with key trading partners.

Under Malaysia’s watch, the region will see the adoption of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 at the 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur in late 2025. This will set ASEAN’s strategic direction for the next 20 years. There is much at stake for Malaysia as the co-Chair of the High-Level Taskforce on ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision. It is incumbent on Malaysia to ensure that the final ASEAN Community Vision 2045 is able to future-proof ASEAN.

The second major milestone in 2025 is the conclusion of the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). Negotiations have been fast-tracked and are expected to conclude by the end of the year. The Agreement will be the world’s first regionwide digital agreement that offers a comprehensive roadmap to accelerate digital trade in services, e-commerce, digital payment systems and more. The DEFA is projected to value-add some US$2 trillion to ASEAN’s economy by 2030 and pave the way for ASEAN to facilitate a greater volume of digital trade with its dialogue partners.

But ASEAN may run the risk of deepening the digital divide in the region. As part of the ASEAN digital community discussions, Malaysia can bridge this divide with a focus on enhancing digital education and access across the region.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has already set the stage for Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship by announcing the appointment of informal personal advisers. These advisers include former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, former Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi and former Singaporean foreign minister George Yeo. There remains much scepticism about Anwar’s ‘ASEAN study group’, with some observers seeing this advisory team as performative on Anwar’s part.

For the last 50 years, ASEAN has been a beneficiary of a free, stable global environment. But with the changes Trump’s presidency will usher in, the biggest challenge for Malaysia, as Chair of ASEAN, will be figuring out how to navigate these changes and find opportunities for ASEAN to continue to thrive in unfamiliar territory.

Source：EASTASIAFORUM

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Owen Li

Economic

Europe is seeing a dramatic boost in defense budgets, driven by both long-standing pressure from Washington and the continent’s own reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That promises a glut of military contracts for weapons-makers in Europe as well as in the U.S., South Korea and elsewhere.

That also explains why the industry is relatively relaxed about Trump.

If he pulls the U.S. out of NATO and leaves Europe to go it alone, the continent will have to rely on its own arms companies, netting them a surge of contracts.

But even if the new president doesn’t do anything so radical, the enormous scale of new defense spending — the European Commission estimates that the bloc’s members will need to spend €500 billion on defense over the next decade — still means there will be a lot of money available for European defense firms.

That said, the early winner of Europe’s defense buildup is likely to be the U.S.

“The European defense industry cannot cover it all, particularly after decades of underinvestment that have seriously undermined Europe’s defense industrial capacities,” said Jan Pie, secretary-general of Brussels-based defense industry lobby ASD. "This trend must be reversed. Buying non-European ultimately means that European industry will continue struggle to get a return on its investments will over time lose its technological know-how and related skills."

Roughly 55 percent of Europe’s arms imports from 2019 to 2023 were from America, sharply up on 35 percent over the preceding five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_1

Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_1

“In terms of deliveries, the actual volume of weapons transferred from the U.S. to European states is ... planned to increase significantly in the coming years,” said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at SIPRI, adding that those deals had “nothing to do with Trump” but rather with the scramble for gear following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

That trend could shift even more in America’s favor if countries attempt to curry favor with Trump by placing more contracts with U.S. companies.

“We don’t know much of Trump’s intentions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if countries, especially in the east, will buy more and more American stuff,” a European diplomat said.

Doubts remain, however — mostly regarding how Trump will act.

“Deterrence is a mind game, it’s not a weapons game,” said Christian Mölling, who tracks defense procurement for the Bertelsmann Foundation. “I’m questioning the underlining assumption that you can buy yourself American leadership through weapons deals.”

For now, American companies are doing well, selling Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, Patriot air defense system, Abrams tanks and more to countries across the continent.

But EU nations that are modernizing their militaries, such as Poland and Romania, also procure from European arms-makers, and that’s unlikely to end soon, no matter what Trump does.

Poland last year spent €1.5 billion on thousands of Carl Gustaf M4 recoilless rifles and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition from Sweden, while in 2023 it bought Saab 340 early warning and control aircraft.

Warsaw is also mulling buying Eurofighter Typhoons, manufactured by a consortium of Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo, within its continued air force modernization.

Romania is buying Mistral 3 air defense missiles from France.

Other European countries show similar patterns. Some 15 European countries are on track to buy F-35As, but the Eurofighter Typhoon is looking at new sales to Germany, Italy and Spain. Saab is also continuing to push its JAS 39 Gripen fighter, last year selling four to Hungary.

The early signal from Trump is that he wants defense spending to rise steeply.

Of NATO’s 32 members, 24 now meet the alliance target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, and Trump is pushing for that to rise to 5 percent — a figure that only Poland comes close to meeting at the moment, with Lithuania having pledged to hit it in the future.

Even if NATO falls short of that target, it’s clear that defense budgets, and defense contracts, will continue to go up.

“The pressure Trump is creating at the moment is good for Europe,” Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger told Bloomberg this month.

Although European companies will do well, there are limits on how much of that increased spending they’ll be able to absorb.

Defense officials insist Europe needs America’s defense industry more than ever, a recognition that the U.S. military-industrial complex supplies a lot of kit that Europe can’t match thanks to the scale of its arms firms. Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_2

Why Trump Means Good Times For Europe’s Arms-Makers_2

Speaking to the European Parliament earlier this month, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte banged the drum for faster imports of American arms.

“This was my argument with Trump, open up the U.S. defense market,” Rutte told lawmakers of his discussions with the incoming president. “Because if you want to buy something in the in the U.S., you have to go through Congress, the White House, the Defense Department, Pentagon, etc., before you can get your hands on the Patriot system.”

But European capitals also want to ensure that some of that extra cash goes to domestic companies.

To bolster European production, in his report last year on the state of the EU’s economic competitiveness, former Italian PM Mario Draghi called on EU members to aggregate demand and to raise the share of joint defense procurement.

“As EU defence spending rises, defence industrial consolidation, integration and technological innovation should be supported by reinforced European preference principles in procurement, ensuring that a minimum share of this rising demand is concentrated on European companies rather than flowing overseas,” Draghi wrote.

That’s an idea backed by Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson.

“The more we build a common Europe with common procurement with common standards, the easier it will be to achieve large scale,” he told POLITICO.

Despite the scale of some U.S. companies, Europe still has heavyweights. From two rival programs to develop sixth-generation fighter planes, to a Franco-German project to research a new tank, a program to develop new naval corvettes, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defense system, and billions pouring into drone development, European companies expect to continue scoring big contracts as the continent rearms.

“There’s so much money going around,” Rutte said in the European Parliament. “Be good businessmen ... Don’t lose out to the South Koreans.”

Source:politico europe

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Glendon

Commodity

BENGALURU (Jan 21): Gold prices rose for a second session on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, with markets evaluating the possible consequences of US President Donald Trump's policies in his second term after his inauguration.

Spot gold had gained 0.6% to US$2,724.74 (RM12,200.02) per ounce by 0240 GMT. US gold futures were 0.2% lower at US$2,742.50.

The dollar was down about 1% after reports suggested any new taxes would be imposed in a "measured" way. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers.

"There is a sense of relief in risk sentiment to know that tariffs have not been an immediate focus. The unwinding of bets on imminent trade tensions is most evident in the US dollar," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.

"The mixed dynamics do see gold prices holding up for now, and we may expect gold to remain an attractive hedge instrument. The US$2,720 level will be an immediate resistance to watch."

After weeks of global speculation over which duties Trump would impose tariffs on his first day in office, news that Trump would take more time on tariffs drove a relief rally in global stocks and pressured the US dollar.

Trump had proposed tariffs of up to 10% on global imports, 60% on Chinese goods, and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.

While gold is traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, Trump's policies are seen as inflationary, which could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, affecting gold's appeal.

The degree to which the incoming administration implements Trump's policy pledges will significantly influence the future direction of US interest rates.

The non-yielding bullion tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

Spot silver added 0.4% to US$30.61 per ounce. Palladium dropped 1.2% to US$933.25, and platinum shed 0.1% to US$941.30.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Alex

Economic

The past twelve months compressed a decade’s worth of unprecedented events into a single year. July 2024 alone saw an assassination attempt against US president-elect Donald Trump and the collapse of US President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, all but overshadowing another development with an even more enduring impact on US politics — the US Supreme Court’s sweeping ruling that US presidents’ official actions are beyond the reach of prosecution.

As we begin 2025, the intensifying presence of Donald Trump as he prepares to assume the presidency is once again the overwhelming force animating the United States’ body politic. Trump has decisively moved from anomaly to primacy in US political life as the vox populi rewarded him and the Republican Party with not only the presidency, but a majority in Congress as well.

Trump and his team likely know that the clock is already ticking on their fragile grip on power in the US House of Representatives. In their second turn at the wheel, they are likely to move with greater alacrity and dexterity in implementing Trump’s agenda. As a result, Trump’s impending presidency may be a rare instance in which the sequel proves even more gripping than the original.

Trump’s return to power is best understood as a symptom of the long hangover following the conspicuous failures of former US president George W Bush’s administration at the start of this century. Just as the Vietnam War shattered the legitimacy of the Democratic Party’s elite a generation earlier, the Iraq War, the Global Financial Crisis and the failure of two successive centrist Republicans to secure the presidency immolated the Republican establishment’s credibility with its voter base.

In his first term, Trump still had to contend with traditional Republicans in the Congressional leadership, but the majority of Republican resistance to Trump has withered in the interim.

Trump personally spearheaded the administration’s approach to key regional security issues in East Asia in his first term, pursuing a diplomatic overture to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over the qualms of his advisors and cycling through a parade of senior officials to negotiate an end to the trade war as his own inclinations shifted. But in his second term, the terms of the debate over China policy have shifted such that Trump will no longer personally define the outer limits of a hardline China policy. China hawks in his own party have carried the President’s logic a step further than he has. Some Republicans are calling for the revocation of China’s most-favoured-nation status and some hawks in Trump’s administration may see decoupling from China as the ultimate objective of his coming trade war. Trump has toggled between threats and entreaties toward China during the transition, but his comments suggest that he wants a deal with China rather than a divorce.

If the first trade war is at all instructive, the scope, scale and intensity of the second trade war will depend primarily on the dynamics between a small group of advisers in Trump’s court. Traditional economic considerations are likely to intrude only in the guise of the stock market, the fluctuations of which Trump sees as a real-time measure of his success — with downturns inhibiting his appetite for prolonging the tit-for-tat exchanges with Beijing.

The course of the second trade war in will depend less on Trump’s opening gambit and more on how Beijing responds. The trajectory will also be determined by whether or not Trump tries to expand the scope of any negotiations beyond trade to encompass security issues in East Asia as well as the impact of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Beijing has spent much of 2024 attempting to mollify Washington with gestures such as releasing detained US citizens and resuming counternarcotics cooperation with the United States — even as both sides continue to compete. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s relative forbearance may extend into the opening phases of a trade war, especially if Xi smells an opportunity for a so-called ‘grand bargain’.

Beijing’s interest in a potential grand bargain with Trump could come at a steep price. Indeed, the only outcome of a second trade war that might be more inimical to the region’s security than a downward spiral in US–China relations would be a ‘G2’ deal that trades away US security commitments in exchange for promises from China that are unlikely to materialise.

Beijing will almost certainly use the prospect of a grand bargain to advance its goal of undermining US alliances and commitments across the region. This will undo the Biden administration’s work to fortify and stitch together US partners to cope with the China challenge in the coming decade.

Beijing’s recalcitrance about helping the United States resolve other burning international problems — notably the war in Ukraine and the conflagration in the Middle East — may be the most likely way Trump is disabused of the notion that China is the answer to his problems, rather than the United States’ chief challenge.

Source：EASTASIAFORUM

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Owen Li

Economic

The poll showed the UK moved up from the fourth most important destination for investment in 2024, with senior executives also seeing a brighter economic outlook ahead for Britain in 2025.

The PwC survey found that 14 per cent of chief executives from around the world believe the UK will draw the greatest proportion of international investment, behind only the US, with 30 per cent. UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_1

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_1

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They are followed by Germany with 12 per cent, China with 9 per cent and India with 7 per cent in the top five.

PwC described the findings as a “vote of confidence in the UK”, with almost two thirds (61 per cent) of British chief executives optimistic about the country's economic growth prospects in the next 12 months, up from 39 per cent in 2023.

It comes after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves faced mounting questions over flagging UK growth, the impact of her recent Budget measures and rising UK debt levels, with concerns about the pound slumping and government borrowing costs spike sharply this month.

Last week’s weaker-than-expected growth figures, showing a meagre 0.1 per cent expansion in November, heightened fears of a stalling economy.

The recent sell-off in UK government bonds – also known as gilts – has calmed, but experts worry the rout could resume on further disappointing data or unfavourable trade policies from new US President Donald Trump. UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_2

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_2

Flourish logoA Flourish map

“Our CEO survey findings are a vote of confidence in the UK as a place for business and investment,” Marco Amitrano, senior partner of PwC UK, said.

“The UK’s relative stability at a time of instability should not be underestimated, nor should its strength in key sectors including technology.

“However, there is no room for complacency. Reasserting Britain’s place on the global stage requires a tangible path to growth and a consistent government approach to business and investment.”

Ms Reeves, who is this week attending the Word Economic Forum gathering of business and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland, said: “These latest results show global CEOs are backing Britain and the UK is one of the most attractive destinations for international investment.

“And it’s this investment that will help drive economic growth and improve living standards across the UK.” UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_3

UK Is Second Most Attractive Country For Investment, According To Global Ceos_3

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Despite fears that her Budget measures to increase wage costs for businesses will hit hiring, the survey showed that over half (53 per cent) of UK chief executives plan to increase their workforces this year, up from 48 per cent in 2023.

But longer-term confidence of bosses in their own businesses has been knocked back, with 57 per cent of UK chief executives feeling very positive about their organisation’s prospects over three years, compared with 61 per cent in last year’s survey.

British business leaders are also leading the way in using artificial intelligence (AI) in their firms, with 93 per cent of chief executives saying their firms have now adopted the technology in some way – more than double the 42 per cent in 2023 and higher than the 83 per cent global adoption rate.

But just 36 per cent of UK bosses anticipate AI boosting their profits over the next year, compared with 49 per cent globally, while only 14 per cent of UK chief executives said they saw profit improvements from AI over the past 12 months.

“UK business has begun to move beyond the initial hype of GenAI to the reality of making it work – but that shouldn’t detract from its huge unrealised potential,” Mr Amitrano said.

The survey also revealed that 98 per cent of UK business bosses are planning to make material changes to their business models to stay competitive.

PwC surveyed 4,701 chief executives across 109 countries and territories from October 1 through to November 8, 2024.