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At this time of the year, investors often turn their attention to a well-known seasonal trend in the stock market: the "Santa Rally." This phenomenon, characterized by a rise in stock prices during the final weeks of the year, has captured the interest of traders and investors alike. But what exactly is a Santa Rally, and what factors contribute to this seasonal trend?

What is a Santa Rally?

The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to experience a rise in prices during the last week of December and the first two trading days of January. This period often sees increased investor optimism, leading to a boost in stock prices. Historically, this trend has been observed across various markets, making it a topic of interest for both seasoned investors and market newcomers.

Factors contributing to the Santa Rally

Several factors are believed to contribute to the Santa Rally:

Holiday optimism: The festive season often brings a sense of optimism and goodwill, which can translate into positive market sentiment. Investors may feel more confident, leading to increased buying activity.

Year-end tax considerations: As the year comes to a close, investors may engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling off losing positions to offset capital gains. This activity can create buying opportunities, contributing to upward pressure on stock prices.

Portfolio rebalancing: Institutional investors and fund managers often rebalance their portfolios at the end of the year to align with their investment strategies. This rebalancing can lead to increased trading volumes and potentially drive prices higher.

Bonus/dividend payments and gifts: The end of the year is a common time for companies to distribute bonuses and dividends or for exchange of gifts. Investors receiving these payments may reinvest them in the market, adding to the buying momentum

Less institutional trading and retail investor influence: Another theory suggests that during this time of year, many institutional investors go on vacation, leaving the market primarily to retail investors. Retail investors tend to be more bullish and less focused on fundamentals, which can lead to increased buying activity and contribute to rising stock prices.

Historical context of the Santa Rally

The Santa Rally has been a recurring phenomenon in the stock market, often signaling bullish trends. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded up 78% of the time during the Santa rally period, on average gaining 1.3%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased by 1.4% on average over the holiday season and has done so 79% of the time since 1950.

A successful Santa Rally often implies a positive outlook for the next year's returns, but investors should remain cautious and consider other market factors. In 2018, the S&P 500 gained 6.6% in the last four trading days of December, marking a market bottom and leading to a 29% rise in 2019. Similarly, during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 saw a 7.5% gain during the Santa Rally, preceding a 23% increase in 2009 despite initial volatility. However, the Santa Rally isn't always a reliable predictor. In 2021, the S&P 500 rose by 1.4% during the rally period, but the market peaked shortly after and entered a bear market by mid-2022 due to aggressive interest rate hikes.

How to play the Santa Rally this year

As investors look to capitalize on the potential Santa Rally this year, it's important to approach the market with a strategic mindset. Here are some actionable steps to consider:

Consider stocks that benefit from holiday spending: With the holiday shopping season in full swing, consider retail, travel or gaming stocks that are likely to benefit from increased consumer spending. Look for companies with strong online sales platforms or those that have reported positive holiday sales forecasts. We discussed this aspect in detail in our article title ‘Holiday Stock Picks: Playbook for the Season of Cheer’.

Options strategies: For those comfortable with options trading, consider strategies like buying call options on indices or specific stocks expected to perform well during the Santa Rally. This approach allows you to leverage potential gains while limiting downside risk to the premium paid. Our Options page offers regular inspiration.

Sector ETFs: If you're looking to gain exposure to broader market trends without picking individual stocks, consider investing in sector-specific ETFs that are poised to benefit from the Santa Rally. For example, consumer discretionary or leisure and entertainment ETFs could be attractive options. A complete list of US equity sectors and ETFs can be found here.

Small-cap stocks: Historically, small-cap stocks have shown strong performance during the Santa Rally period. Additionally, expectations of Fed rate cuts and an easier tax and regulatory environment under Trump 2.0 can also support small caps. Consider adding exposure to small-cap stocks or ETFs like Russell 2000 to capture potential gains in this segment of the market.

Reinvest dividends: If you hold dividend-paying stocks, consider reinvesting dividends to compound your returns over time. This strategy can enhance the growth potential of your portfolio without requiring additional capital investment.

Approaching the Santa Rally with caution

It is worth noting that the Santa Rally lacks a strong basis in economic theory and empirical evidence. Attributing stock market movements to a specific time of year, like the holiday season, may be coincidental rather than indicative of a reliable pattern.

When considering investments during a Santa Rally, it's crucial to proceed with careful planning and a well-researched strategy. While this seasonal trend can offer potential opportunities, it's important to approach it with discipline and comprehensive information. By keeping a balanced view and taking into account broader market dynamics, investors can more effectively navigate the Santa Rally and make informed decisions for the upcoming year.

Risk of reversal in early 2025

One key risk to consider is the potential for a market reversal in early 2025. The prospect of new trade policies or tariffs under the incoming Trump administration could lead to market volatility and undermine the positive outlook of the Santa Rally. We discussed how Trump 2.0 could become more nuanced in this article.

Another concerning signal is the divergence between equal-weighted indices and the S&P 500, as discussed here. When the S&P 500's performance is heavily concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, it suggests high levels of concentration risk. This could indicate that the market's apparent strength is not as broad-based as it seems, raising the risk of a sharp correction if these few stocks falter. Market leader Nvidia is also showing some signs of fatigue, and others in the AI space like Broadcom have been catching up as we discussed in the article on the evolving AI narrative.

Source: FXSTREET

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 26): Selangor remained the top destination for investments so far this year, as the state drew in RM66.8 billion in approved investments.

A total of 1,371 projects were approved comprising 253 manufacturing projects and 1,116 in the services sector, according to Invest Selangor. The projects are expected to create more than 50,000 potential job opportunities in the state, the state government promotion agency said.

The planned investments showcase Selangor’s industrial ecosystem vibrancy, cutting-edge technological capabilities, and its competitive strengths in the manufacturing and services sectors, said Ng Sze Han, the state’s executive councillor for investment, trade and mobility.

“The future looks bright for Selangor, and we hope the upwards momentum to continue and yield positive full year result for 2024,” he added.

The total approved investments were an increase of 59% from RM42.1 billion recorded during the same January-September period in 2023, according to the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Mida).

Most of the investments went into the services sector, followed by manufacturing and the primary sector of the economy, a segment that typically covers raw commodity production and extraction such as mining and plantation.

The services sector remained the key driver of Selangor’s investment performance, with major contributions from sub-sectors such as information and communications, real estate, support services, transport services, and distributive trade.

In the manufacturing sector, investments were driven by electrical and electronics, transport equipment, fabricated metal products, non-metallic mineral products, and machinery equipment. “This underscores the manufacturing sector’s resilience and continued growth,” Invest Selangor noted.

Domestic investments accounted for more than one-third of the total. The US was the top contributor of foreign investments in Selangor, pouring in RM4.8 billion, followed by Singapore, China, Japan and Germany.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Source: yahoo finance

It’s the inevitability that gets you. We’re accustomed to lies, greed and manoeuv­ring worthy of Niccolo Machiavelli. Yet, still we hoped against hope that it might not happen. That was a year ago. Since then, it’s been one supine surrender after another to the unstoppable juggernaut. At least Donald Trump faced an election.

This month’s simultaneous award of two World Cups — something that Sepp Blatter promised would never happen again after the heist of 2010 — was a fait accompli, thanks to “acclamation by Zoom”. The ancient Greeks can be forgiven for not factoring this in when they came up with democracy.

As a result of these shenanigans, the 2030 World Cup will be staged in not just one continent but three: Europe, Africa and South America. Don’t worry about the environment and excuse the sarcasm: In keeping with Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s commitment to halving emissions by 2030, only a handful of teams will have to make round trips of 20,000km to play a single 90-minute match.

Just as reassuring as his “Green Card for the Planet” policy is that, four years later when Saudi Arabia hosts, all the stadiums have achieved glowing approval ratings even though nine of them don’t exist. As for the final, it’s destined to be held 350m above ground in a city, Neom, that is still in the planning stage. To be fair to Gianni, the designs look like they belong to another planet.

So, this is where the world’s most watched event will be taking place in the medium-term future — and you do wonder whether Elon Musk has somewhere up his sleeve for 2038. The next edition (2026) will be in just three countries — but as they happen to be the US, Canada and Mexico, the carbon footprint will hardly be on tip-toe.

Apart from the six nations — yes, six — that will do the honours in 2030, in the two decades that follow Brazil’s 2014 tourney, the World Cup will have been held in Russia, Qatar, North America and Saudi Arabia. Not the first places that spring to mind when you think of football. Indeed, for a sport that boasts more followers than the two biggest religions combined, it is being dragged into some less-than-devoted corners.

We might applaud the evangelistic spirit, if it were not so blatantly subordinate to profit and power. The Pope travels the world but still celebrates mass with his fan base in Rome. Not football. Ever since the oil states started throwing their money at the game, Fifa has been determined to grab the lion’s share.

At first it was just certain delegates who were alleged to have taken bribes to support the bids of Russia and Qatar. There was shock and horror, but after Blatter, who voted for Russia and the US “in a gesture of peace”, was finally ousted in 2015, there was hope.

Dawn raids on Fifa officials as they slept; white sheets of shame to protect their identity as they were corralled into waiting cars. Some went to jail. But it was no more than football’s Arab Spring, and now an even more monstrous head has emerged to show that the governing body is no more than a giant hydra.

The UK’s The Times called Infantino “the biggest creep in the history of sports administration”, while The Daily Tele­graph dubbed the vote “the most craven sellout in sports history”. What is undeniable is that the Swiss-Italian mega­lomaniac has embarked on an unashamed carve-up of the world’s most popular sport. Engraving his name on the World Club Cup trophy was just a start.

The continental confederations take it in turns to host the World Cup, but rotation goes awry when more than one continent — and multiple countries — are involved. Uruguay has always wanted to hold the 2030 edition, as it’s the centenary of the inaugural World Cup. Back in 1930, all 18 matches were played in the capital, Montevideo, but the award of an expanded 2026 event to North America effectively scuppered its chances.

Some 104 matches would have been a stretch even for a football-mad nation of three million. Qatar, which hosted in 2022, is even smaller but rich enough to build several fabulous (albeit some single-use) stadiums for a then 32-nation tournament.

Uruguay’s neighbours offered to lend a hand but it was to no avail, as Fifa deemed the profits from places such as Paraguay, Chile and Argentina paled in comparison with what was being offered elsewhere, not to mention the infrastructure. And by this time, Saudi Arabia had reared its head; so, a cunning plan was hatched.

Spain, which hosted in 1982, and Portugal, which has never hosted, were seen as a joint-alternative and when they linked with Morocco, perennial losers in World Cup bidding, it played into Fifa’s hands. At a stroke, three continents ruled themselves out of the running for 2034.

To show he hadn’t forgotten Uruguay altogether, Infantino granted the original hosts one commemorative match, along with one each for Argentina and Paraguay. The home nations will presumably be playing, but all involved will have to fly from the south of South America to Europe to play the rest of the tournament. A minor inconvenience, but it stops South America from bidding in 2034.

So, this is how the road opened up for Saudi Arabia. With everywhere else out of the running, it left only Australia as a realistic alternative. But then, just over a year ago, Infantino pulled off his coup de grâce: He gave the candidates 26 days to make their bids.

As Saudi had their stunningly futuristic plans already in place, they were shoo-ins. Australia saw the direction of the breeze and bowed out. So, Saudi Arabia’s drawing-board arenas got the nod by a show of hands via Zoom. Britain’s The Independent newspaper labelled Fifa a “tinpot dictatorship”, adding that the sham vote “perfectly encapsulates the depths to which football has sunk”.

Only Norway spoke up while the English FA fiddled over Rainbow armbands and is now facing a lifetime without a World Cup. The country that invented the game has the best league in the world and some of the best stadiums! All other concerns were brushed aside, although a brush wasn’t really required in the Zoom decision-making process.

It was a farce; some delegates were in their cars, others on their phones. Human rights, anyone? Some 83% of Newcastle fans have expressed concern about human rights in Saudi Arabia and their club is owned by the country. But Fifa turn a deaf ear. Women? Migrant workers? Nary a mention while the dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi seems as distant as a Nazi war crime.

And is Saudi Arabia a suitable venue anyway? The heat will mean another shift to winter and disruption to the season in Europe. While there’s no doubt that Saudis love football, lapping up the glitz and big-money signings, you have to ask: Aside from a handful of clubs, is interest enough to stretch to 104 matches? Some Saudi Pro League attendances have been counted in dozens.

But nothing is going to stop Infantino from doing what he likes. The 54-year-old, whom the French might call “Infantino terrible”, is hell-bent on being the great panjandrum of the sport. He even had the temerity to repeat the words of World Cup founder, Jules Rimet, who said: “Sport could unite the world.” It’s on its way — most of football agrees the Fifa boss is a tinpot dictator.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Many claim Web3 is just a speculative playground because of its power to mint millionaires overnight, and because memes seemingly win out over actual utility. Long-term builders and dreamers can quickly lose faith in the industry’s future. Despite the media narratives, there are bright spots.

Blockchain and crypto are genuinely benefiting humanity, especially in emerging markets. There are fundamental societal shifts as Web3 technology helps the underserved and underbanked and combats the deficiencies in modern traditional institutions in finance and beyond. 

The investment needs to follow. 

Emerging markets dominate adoption rankings

As of 2024, the World Bank estimates that 1.4 billion people worldwide remain unbanked. Decentralization is fundamentally about addressing uneven value distribution. The industry needs to support more builders who are committed to driving change. 

Africa is one of the regions leading the charge in crypto adoption, mainly owing to limited access to banking services. Even in 2021, around 300 million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa couldn’t access essential banking services. This lack of access severely limits people’s ability to conduct everyday transactions and hopefully save and invest — let alone run a business. 

Crypto is changing this narrative.

According to Chainalysis’ 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index, developing nations dominate the rankings, with countries such as India, Indonesia and Nigeria leading. 

As of 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest Bitcoin (BTC) adoption rate in the world, with Nigeria ranking second globally on the Global Crypto Adoption Index. By mid-2023, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 2.3% of global cryptocurrency transaction volume, receiving around $117.1 billion in onchain value. In these geographies, crypto serves practical purposes beyond just speculation. 

Functionality is advancing

In emerging markets, we are witnessing the functional use of crypto rather than just its use case as a speculative asset. Local entrepreneurs with first-hand insights into local problems drive meaningful change, and new technological innovations fit for purpose. 

Initiatives like CARE’s pilot programs in Kenya and Ecuador, which distribute crypto-based vouchers to vulnerable groups, demonstrate how crypto can provide access to essential goods and services while fostering economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Non-fungible tokens have become accepted cross-border fundraising vehicles. 

Acute governance problems can also mean adoption is growing by necessity. 

Recent: Cardano founder predicts Bitcoin DeFi will dominate crypto within 3 years

The Indian city of Raipur recently put real estate records on the blockchain with an innovative encryption startup called Airchains. This blockchain-based solution aims to prevent forgery and reduce processing time from a month to three days. In developed countries, there would typically be an inquiry to consider the issue. Raipur, however, had a tendering process and a strong desire to solve a challenging problem urgently.

Fund adoption, not shiny new things 

While capital flows into crypto projects in emerging markets are becoming more significant, they still fall short compared to the funding available for projects in well-developed nations. 

In 2023, developed nations, particularly the United States, led with approximately $1.975 billion invested in Q3 alone, with US-based companies accounting for 34.5% of all crypto VC funding. 

In contrast, emerging markets struggled to secure comparable funding, with Africa’s total venture capital investment around $1 billion for the entire year, highlighting the challenges projects face in these regions.

Lately, the recognition of the potential in emerging markets has grown. Crypto investment should now pay attention to where mass adoption is happening. Crypto is a functional tool, rather than a speculative asset, in emerging markets. 

Ayush Ranjan is the co-founder and CEO of Huddle01.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

SEOUL (Dec 26): Round-up of South Korean financial markets:

The South Korean won hit the weakest level since March 2009 in holiday-thinned trading amid the US dollar's continued rally. South Korean stocks fell, while the benchmark bond yield rose.

The benchmark Kospi shed 5.32 points, or 0.22%, at 2,435.20 as of 02:12 GMT.

Foreigners net sold shares worth 91.5 billion won (US$62.6 million or RM280.86 million) on the main board on Thursday.

The won was quoted at 1,463.3 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, 0.40% lower than Tuesday's close at 1,457.5 and hitting the weakest since March 2009.

The South Korean financial market was shut on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday.

Among index heavyweights, chipmaker Samsung Electronics fell 0.74%, while peer SK Hynix gained 0.59%. Battery maker LG Energy Solution slid 1.00%.

There are very few offers in USD-KRW trading which is helping the won weaken, a local FX dealer said, asking not to be named due to internal policy.

Hyundai eased 0.46%, while sister automaker Kia added 0.10%. Search engine Naver and instant messenger Kakao dipped 0.99% and 1.39%, respectively.

Of the total 941 traded issues, 318 advanced and 564 declined.

In offshore trading, the won was quoted at 1,462.9 per dollar, down 0.4% on the day, while in non-deliverable forward trading, its one-month contract was quoted at 1,460.9.

The Kospi has fallen 8.29% so far this year, losing 1.7% in the last 30 sessions. The won has lost 12.0% against the dollar in the same period.

In money and debt markets, March futures on three-year treasury bonds fell 0.05 point to 106.57.

The most liquid three-year Korean treasury bond yield rose by 0.8 basis points to 2.640% and the benchmark 10-year yield rose by 2.3 basis points to 2.897%.

Source: Theedgemarkets