Bitcoin back to $90K next? Traders diverge on BTC price pullback odds

Polymarket blocked French users on Friday, weeks after reports that the country's government was investigating the prediction markets juggernaut for gambling law compliance.

The ban was not reflected in Polymarket's terms of service at press time, but on Friday a reporter using a VPN attempted to access the website from a French server and ran into a digital blockade.

Polymarket fell into the crosshairs of France's national gaming authority the ANJ after a French trader placed massive bets on Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.

The fresh ban was first highlighted on social media by French crypto news site The Big Whale.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Neither did the ANJ.

MicroStrategy’s stock experienced extreme volatility on Thursday, with a dramatic single-day trading range of nearly $139. The day began with an early surge to $535.74, but the momentum abruptly reversed just 13 minutes into the trading session when Citron Research disclosed its short position despite maintaining a bullish stance on Bitcoin.

This announcement triggered an immediate selloff, leading to a steep morning decline followed by sustained downward pressure throughout the trading day. The stock attempted to stabilize several times, as shown by brief plateaus in the chart, but ultimately continued its descent, closing at $396.86 – marking a 25.9% drop from the day’s high.

Well, earlier today, a short time before the market opened, Michael Saylor, the co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy Inc. CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to discuss his company’s Bitcoin strategy and to address skepticism from short-sellers.

Saylor described MicroStrategy as a “Bitcoin treasury company,” emphasizing that it operates using a unique financial model powered by Bitcoin volatility. He explained that the company holds approximately $35 billion in Bitcoin, with its value fluctuating significantly. The business generates profit by capitalizing on these fluctuations.

According to Saylor:

• MicroStrategy generates returns by “selling volatility and recycling it back into Bitcoin.”
• The company also strips volatility and risk from fixed-income securities, transferring those elements to common stock, which is designed to deliver “2x Bitcoin performance.”

Saylor explained how MicroStrategy leverages financial instruments to amplify returns. He highlighted two recent transactions:

• At-The-Market Offering (ATM): The company executed a $4.6 billion ATM offering at a 70% Bitcoin spread, resulting in $3 billion in Bitcoin gains over five days. Saylor projected this would translate into $1,225 per share over 10 years.
• Convertible Bond Offering: MicroStrategy raised $3 billion at an 80% Bitcoin spread, producing $2.4 billion in Bitcoin gains. This was estimated to generate $125 per share over a decade.

He argued that these financial maneuvers allow the company to turn fixed-income raises into substantial shareholder returns, assuming Bitcoin prices increase as expected.

Saylor responded to critiques of MicroStrategy’s heavily leveraged Bitcoin position. Critics argue that a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value could create financial instability. Saylor countered:

• The primary risk is Bitcoin experiencing an “extinction-level event” and going to zero, which he deemed highly unlikely.
• He emphasized that all MicroStrategy shareholders are Bitcoin maximalists or Bitcoin believers who accept the inherent risks of holding the cryptocurrency.

He also pointed out that Bitcoin has historically increased by 60% annually, and his expectation is for 29% annual growth over the next two decades.

Saylor underscored the profitability of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-centric model:

• Over two weeks, the company generated $5.4 billion in Bitcoin gains, averaging $500 million per day.
• He characterized MicroStrategy as potentially “the most profitable company in the United States,” given its rapid growth and unique position in the Bitcoin market.

Saylor concluded by reaffirming MicroStrategy’s appeal to Bitcoin enthusiasts. “If you don’t like Bitcoin, you won’t want any part of this. But if you believe in Bitcoin, this is a monster for you,” he said, reiterating the company’s commitment to its Bitcoin-first strategy.

At the time of writing (2:38 p.m. UTC), Bitcoin is trading at around $97,886, up 0.9% in the past 24-hour period, and MSTR is trading at $406.06, up 1.96% on the day.

Featured Image via Pixabay

Gnosis founder Martin Köppelmannn says implementing a web of 128 “native rollups” can save the Ethereum network from being captured by corporate interests and vanishing into obscurity.

Native rollups are layer-2 networks built to Ethereum’s native security standards, meaning that they’re composable, uncensorable, and economically aligned with the original ethos of Ethereum.

Unlike “centralized” rollups, which include L2s like Coinbase-incubated Base, or “based rollups” like Taiko — native rollups offer all of the inherent security and composability of Ethereum.

Native rollups would be “built and governed by” Ethereum core developers, with synchronous reading to the L1 and all data availability, maximum extractable values (MEV), and congestion fees being paid back to the mainnet.

Köppelmannn argues that implementing a swathe of these so-called native rollups could hold the key to solving the problem of liquidity and developer fragmentation that currently plague the network. It would also return the network to the original sharding vision abandoned in favor of rollups.

The proposal received a warm response from the Bankless podcasters Ryan Adams and David Hoffman who praised the approach for “only adding to Ethereum, rebalancing power and making ETH stronger.”

However, Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams said he preferred a “middle ground” approach of an enshrined proof system — which would look like a sequencer agnostic L2 proving system.

However, Adrian Brink, the co-founder of the “intent-centric” blockchain firm Anoma, told Cointelegraph the difference between native and based rollups is largely just “made up” for marketing purposes.

“There is no defined computer science terminology for a ‘native’, ‘based’, or ‘vanilla’ rollup. Based just means the rollup is sequenced by the base layer. Native just means there is a native opcode to verify the rollup’s execution,” he said.

The risks of “centralized” rollups

Köppelmannn is the founder of Gnosis, an Ethereum infrastructure firm that’s heavily prioritized on decentralization. Gnosis is also the firm behind Safe Global and Gnosis Chain which together form the bedrock of infrastructure that much of the Ethereum ecosystem rests on.

Speaking on stage at DevCon in Thailand last week, Köppelmann, clad in a Tornado Cash T-shirt, asserted that Ethereum needs to distance itself from centralized layer-2 rollups and deploy its own web of zk-proven networks, all built to the high standards of Ethereum’s L1.

“I have absolutely the highest respect for Jesse [Pollack] and for what Base and Coinbase are doing but I do think saying ‘we’re bringing the next billion people to Ethereum’ is wrong.”

Köppelmannn warned that Base and any other centralized layer-2 network are in charge of how much profit they make, which gives them different incentives.

“It’s entirely in their hands to control how many fees they charge for transactions, and they’re perfectly capable of doing something where they take a 30% cut,” Köppelmannn said, referring to Apple’s controversial fee on all sales conducted through its App Store.

Why does Ethereum need “native” L2s?

Koppelman said roll-up developers are typically presented with two main choices: centralized rollups which rely on a centralized sequencer or “based” rollups.

Centralized sequencing is good for optimizing UX and fast transactions while “based” rollups are slower but optimize for deeper connectivity to the L1.

“If most assets are not bridged from Ethereum, and the sequencing is also not done by Ethereum, the connection to Ethereum is reduced to occasional checkpointing,” he said.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 3219.34, up 3.0% (+95.19) since 4 pm ET on Thursday.

Fourteen of 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: XRP (+19.6%) and XLM (+18.9%).

Laggards: RENDER (-2.4%) and NEAR (-2.4%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

A massive Ethereum whale that accumulated nearly 400,000 ETH when the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at around $6 per token has recently restarted selling.

According to data shared by on-chain analysis firm Lookonchain, the whale accumulated a total of 398,889 ETH for around $2.4 million between January and March 2016, with the tokens now being worth over $1.34 billion after Ethereum’s price exploded in the last eight years.

The cryptocurrency is now trading at $3,350 per token and has a $404 billion market capitalization. Per Lookonchain, the massive Ethereum whale remained dormant for over eight years, before it restarted selling on November 7.

The whale has so far sold73,356 ETH worth around $224.4 million, but still has 325,533 ETH worth $1.1 billion in its wallet.

The whale’s resurgence comes after the price of Ethereum surged by more than 8.5% mid a wider cryptocurrency market rally that has seen the price of the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin near the $100,000 mark for the first time.

While Bitcoin is trading near a record, Ethereum is still far from its all-time high near $4,600 seen back in 2021. As CryptoGlobe reported, late last month the amount of ETH being held on cryptocurrency exchanges has plunged by around $750 million after massive withdrawals of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization from these platforms.

According to on-chain data from on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant shared by popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, 300,000 ETH tokens worth approximately $750 million were withdrawn from exchanges in a single week.

A smaller supply of Ethereum on cryptocurrency exchanges is often interpreted as a bullish sign, as if demand remains steady or rises it could lead to price rises. Often, funds are moved off of exchanges so holders can custody their own funds to keep them for the long-term.

Ethereum holders may also move their funds off of exchanges to stake their funds on the network in a bid to earn a yield on their holdings through the network’s Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism.

Featured image via Pixabay.

On Nov. 22, United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gery Gensler announced that he will step down from his position on Jan. 20.

He is widely regarded as one of the most “anti-crypto” SEC chairs in history, and crypto users are celebrating his departure on X.

However, the new pick for SEC Chair will face scrutiny in the US Senate, which must confirm any nominee.

The SEC announced Gensler’s departure in a press release. During his term in office, the SEC filed lawsuits against several popular Web3 protocols and exchanges, including Coinbase, Uniswap, Metamask developer Consensys, blockchain video streaming platform LBRY, and others. The lawsuits have been criticized by many crypto users and investors.

One of President Elect Donald Trump’s promises during his campaign was to fire Gary Gensler on his first day in office.

However, attempting to fire him could have led to a court battle, since members of regulatory agencies can only be removed “for cause.” Gensler’s resignation means that this battle will not take place.

Crypto X celebrates

Crypto users celebrated the announcement on the X social media platform.

Jeremy Hogan, an attorney and content creator who often posts about crypto-related legal proceedings, stated “Ding Dong, Gensler is Gone,” and asked readers to “Sing it with me” to the tune of “The Witch is Dead” from the Wizard of Oz.