Bitcoin Bull Run Comeback? Whale Exchange Inflow Metric Nears 5-Year High

Source: Poundsterlinglive

Source: Euronews

We maintain our view of a 25bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at the 18 February meeting. A tight labour market presents downside risk to our view of 100bps of RBA rate cuts in 2025. Swaps are pricing c.22bps of RBA cuts in February, which should limit AUD weakness due to the cuts. Near-term risk-reward likely favours AUD upside vs USD, especially if Australia is exempt from US tariffs, Standard Chartered's FX and Macro Strategist Nicholas Chia reports.

Near-term risk-reward likely favours AUD upside vs USD

"We maintain our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will kickstart its rate-cutting cycle with a 25bps cut at the 18 February meeting, bringing the cash rate to 4.10%. While underlying inflation – proxied by trimmed mean CPI inflation (Q4: +3.2% y/y) – remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target, we think the central bank will justify the cut by noting that the economic conditions have evolved largely in line with its expectations. Headline Q3-2024 GDP growth (+0.8% y/y) was weaker than the RBA estimated while the labour market was tighter than its expectation, which should assuage its concerns over an abrupt slowdown in economic activity."

"We see a risk that terminal rates end up higher than our forecast for 2025 (3.35%). The labour market has been tight relative to previous RBA tightening cycles: the labour force participation rate reached a record level (67.1%) and the unemployment rate remained sticky at 4% at end-2024, relieving pressure on the central bank to cut rates aggressively (Figure 1).

This may also be a consequence of the RBA’s dual mandate of managing the acute policy trade-off between price stability and full employment. We doubt the RBA will offer substantive forward guidance on monetary policy as it requires more clarity on the disinflation process before getting rates back to neutral, which it estimates to be in the region of 3%-4%."

Source: FXSTREET

The lack of investments and raising the cost of capital for gas development will endanger energy security and weaken the industry’s capability to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to people at large, said International Gas Union (IGU) president Li Yalan.

She said this has prompted the union to urge and encourage its members and the global key stakeholders to ensure investment and financing access for gas. 

"For Asia’s current coal-dependent energy mix, natural gas is one of the fundamental energies to support countries’ energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts. 

"Until large-scale, commercial, long-term electricity storage technology matures, natural gas will still play an important role in the energy system," she said at the fourth edition of the Malaysian Gas Symposium (MyGAS 2025). 

She noted that estimates indicated that natural gas met around 40% of the increase in global energy demand in 2024, more than any other fuel.

Global natural gas consumption reached a record high of 4,212 billion cubic metres (bcm), a 2.8% increase year-on-year. 

The strong growth was mainly due to the Asia-Pacific region, which accounted for almost 45% of incremental gas demand in 2024, on the back of continued economic development, which showed that there is still huge potential for natural gas development in Asia Pacific. 

"In 2025, world natural gas consumption is expected to reach 4,292 bcm. Asia Pacific will continue (to account) for the majority of that increment. 

"Meanwhile, Europe is expected to import more liquified natural gas (LNG) to replace pipeline gas. All these factors will impact the supply and price of the global gas market, whose balance remains fragile," said Li. 

On the local front, Li said Malaysia, as the third largest natural gas producer in the Asia-Pacific region after Australia and China, would play a crucial role with its rich gas reserve, and its increasing LNG production capacity. 

"At the same time, due to its geographical proximity to China, India and other natural gas markets, the Malaysian gas industry will have greater potential development," she said. 

Malaysia is also the world’s fifth largest LNG exporter, with exports reaching over 28 metric tonnes, accounting for 7% of the global LNG trade.

In 2024, Malaysia exported 7.85 million tonnes of LNG to China.

Read also:
Access to financing among challenges for gas industry in transitioning to cleaner, sustainable energy — association’s president 

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Source: Theedgemarkets

Gold is on the forefront again and resumes its rally mode. 

Headwinds remain with a possible peace deal for Ukraine and US inflation concerns. 

Gold is back on its way to test the all-time high at $2,942.

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) soars again and resumes its rally near $2,920 at the time of writing on Thursday, with Bullion traders shrugging off the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January released on Wednesday. Traders are also ignoring the possibility of a peace deal formation with United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have spoken on the phone to outline a meeting soon to work out the broad strokes of a peace deal. Despite these quite substantial tail risks, Gold is rallying again, revealing a firm commitment from traders to keep residing in the safe haven asset. 

Meanwhile, traders are digesting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s two testimonies at Capitol Hill before lawmakers. The release of January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Wednesday proved that the Fed has the right angle to keep rates steady for longer. US yields surged during the past two days, though with the pickup in Gold buying, the question will be whether US yields can keep rising in tandem with an uptick in Gold, which is a bit contradictory. 

Daily digest market movers: Geopolitics take over

US President Donald Trump said that Hamas must release all hostages by noon on Saturday or ‘all hell will break loose’, Reuters reports. 

Ukraine talks are spurring risk assets and the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, triggers a softer US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, which is beneficial for Gold. 

After the hotter-than-expected January CPI reading, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 64.3% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June, compared to 50.3% before the release. This suggests that the Fed would keep rates unchanged for longer to fight against persistent inflation. 

Technical Analysis: Buy the dip

Gold traders have used January’s CPI release as an entry point to buy more stakes in their beloved precious metal. However, a considerable tail risk could deliver quite a harsh and quick correction in Gold: the Ukraine peace talks. Once those peace talks start to take shape and might get support from Ukraine and Europe, a risk-on wave in markets would occur, with safe-haven outflows and Gold being punished.  

The first support level on Thursday is $2,892, which is the Daily Pivot. From there, S1 support should come in at $2,875. The S2 support at $2,847 should act as a safeguard and avoid any further declines to the bigger $2,790 level (October 31, 2024, high).

On the upside, the R1 resistance at $2,920 is the first level that needs to be recovered, followed by the R2 resistance at $2,937. In case the rally continues, the $2,950 big figure will be tested for a break to the upside. Further up, the $3,000 psychological level could be next.

XAU/USD: Daily Chart

Source: FXSTREET