Bitcoin Jumps, Could Extend Rise on Trump's Plan For Strategic Crypto Reserve

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin Jumps, Could Extend Rise on Trump's Plan For Strategic Crypto Reserve

Bitcoin rises sharply and could extend its recovery after President Trump announced the creation of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, XTB's Kathleen Brooks says. "Ironically, a cryptocurrency that was designed to be isolated from government interference and decentralized, is now reliant on the U.S. government for its fortunes," she says. Investors in the options market are betting on further gains for cryptocurrencies following Trump's announcement. Bitcoin could rise back to $100,000 as part of a broad-based recovery in crypto, she says. Bitcoin rises 9.3% to $92,090, according to LSEG. It reached a three-and-a-half-month low of $78,273 on Friday. On his Truth Social platform Sunday, Trump said the crypto reserve would include bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana's SOL token and Cardano's ADA.

Thailand's consumer-price index is expected to have risen 1.1% on year in February, according to the median forecast of nine economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That would compare with January's 1.32% and the central bank's inflation target range of 1.0%-3.0%. Headline CPI likely moderated last month, in line with a slight decline in retail fuel prices, Nomura analysts write in a report. They expect core inflation at 0.8%, unchanged from January, suggesting that demand-side pressures remain weak. The Bank of Thailand lowered its benchmark interest rate amid global uncertainties in February. The CPI data are due later this week.

The downward correction in market pricing of the terminal Fed funds rate--where the Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates--can continue a bit longer, says Danske Bank Research's Asger Wilhelm Dalsjoe in a note. Recent weak U.S. data have prompted money markets to lower bets on the terminal Fed rates. "We think the downward correction can proceed a bit longer, as we target a terminal rate of 3-3.25%," the assistant analyst says. Markets currently price the terminal Fed rate at around 3.50% to be reached in the second quarter of 2026, according to LSEG data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, closed 6 basis points lower at 4.229% on Friday, currently trades 0.6 basis point higher at 4.235%, according to Tradeweb.

Consumer inflation in the Philippines likely eased slightly to 2.75% on year in February, according to the median forecast of 10 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That compares with a 2.9% increase in January. Headline inflation is expected to have eased last month, partly due to base effects, Nomura analysts write in a report. Rice prices likely continued falling and dragged food inflation lower, Barclays analysts say in a note. The Philippine central bank held rates in February amid global uncertainty. The CPI data are due Wednesday.

Germany, which held elections on Feb. 23, desperately needs an effective government to start reforming the economy and odds are good for delivery, says UniCredit's Erik Nielsen. The next government has to find resources to fill the gap after years of under-investment, the group chief economics advisor says. Tasks include a substantial increase in its defense capabilities, and help lead Europe through the rough geopolitical waters, he says. "Despite the clear complexities--the odds are good for the next government to deliver on the necessary reforms and to fulfil Germany's role in the European leadership constellation," he says. He argues that the economy is in better state than headline numbers suggest. The Chancellor-in-waiting, Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, aims to have a government in place by Easter.

Markets remain stuck in a trap of softening U.S. data, says Pepperstone's Michael Brown in a note. This is coupled with the U.S. administration doubling down on the trade and geopolitical hawkishness and delivering unpredictable and inconsistent policy proposals on a daily basis, the senior research strategist says. "Hardly a brilliant cocktail for risk appetite, or to entice any dip buyers to enter the fray!," he says. For the first time in a while, Brown is "genuinely nervy" over the state of the U.S. economy. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield last trades at 4.235%, up 0.6 basis point, according to Tradeweb.

Japanese stocks ended higher following Friday's selloffs and as concerns about borrowing costs have ebbed for now. Heavy industry and auto stocks led the gains. IHI advanced 7.8% and Toyota Motor gained 3.9%. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.7% to 37785.47 following Friday's 2.9% drop. USD/JPY is at 150.41, compared with 150.62 late Friday in New York. Investors are focusing on any developments in U.S. trade and foreign policies and their implications for Japanese businesses. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 3.5 basis points to 1.405%.

U.S. President Trump's tariffs on China were "seemingly soft" but tactical, with his trade policy expected to take center stage in the coming months, Nomura analysts write in a note. Markets have potentially underestimated his "resolve to curb China and his intent on pursuing bolder measures in his second term," they write. His focus on domestic agenda, border policies and the peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was also tactical and doesn't signal a shift in strategic priorities, they say. Nomura analysts estimates the average U.S. tariff rates to China to be lifted to approximately 33%, following the latest announcement of an additional 10% tariff.

A trading range of 2.20%-2.60% for the 10-year Bund yield could persist, according to Morgan Stanley Research's Lorenzo Testa and Maria Chiara Russo in a note. This leaves limited scope for implementing outright trades on euro duration for now, the strategists say. Eurozone duration ended February are more expensive by about 6.5 basis points relative to January despite the headline-induced volatility and the strong cross-market underperformance, they say. The 10-year Bund yield ended Friday at 2.388%, according to Tradeweb.

The yuan weakens slightly against the dollar in offshore and onshore markets as traders await China's National People's Congress meeting slated to be held this week. The meeting may provide the PBOC with more room to maintain foreign exchange stability, which could lead to steady USD/CNY fixing guidance near the 7.17 level, Mizuho Securities Asia's Ken Cheung says in an email. "At the NPC, Chinese Premier Li will reveal various economic and development targets, with an annual growth target of around 5% for 2025 through higher budget deficits of 4% of GDP," the director of FX Strategy says. "The inflation target is expected to stay around 2%," Cheung adds. USD/CNY is 0.1% higher at 7.2894; USD/CNH is up 0.1% at 7.2978.

The Singapore dollar strengthens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid mild risk-on sentiment driven by gains across most regional equity markets. However, further Singapore dollar appreciation could be curbed by ongoing worries over tariffs from the U.S. and the rest of the world, analysts say. "Markets are now considering prospects of a global slowdown and inflationary pressures," SMBC's Jeff Ng says in commentary. "We stay more bearish on KRW, MYR, THB and SGD over the immediate horizon," the head of Asia Macro Strategy adds. USD/SGD is 0.1% lower at 1.3496.

Investors are focused on tariffs and their implications but appear to be underestimating the potential damage to capex from tariff threats, Morgan Stanley says in a report based on its recent marketing across the U.S., Singapore and Hong Kong. "Investors are sanguine about tariff implications," MS says, adding that it worries about the adverse effects of tariffs on corporate confidence. "Unless tariffs are averted swiftly, uncertainty itself will hurt the business cycle." MS sees broader macro headwinds persisting for China's economy along with deflation. While MS sees India's economic growth on track to reach 6.5% sustainably from 1Q, it believes the Bank of Japan's actions will be less hawkish than the market expects unless the yen depreciates sharply.

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Asian shares wavered despite upbeat Chinese factory data, after beginning the day with solid gains, as sharply higher tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods looked set to take effect on Tuesday.

In Hong Kong, Chinese bubble tea chain Mixue Bingcheng’s shares soared 43% Monday after its $444 million IPO. Local reports said it set a local record for subscriptions, which exceeded 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars ($128 billion). The company claims to be the world’s largest food retail chain, with more than 45,000 outlets.

But after a strong start, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.2% to 22,898.55, while the Shanghai Composite index slipped 0.3% to 3,310.52.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.7% to 37,785.47.

South Korean markets were closed for a holiday, while the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 0.9% to 8,245.70.

Taiwan’s Taiex sank 1.3%, while in Bangkok, the SET fell 0.8%.

Surveys of Chinese factory managers showed signs of improvement in February as new orders rose, likely driven by companies moving quickly to beat rising tariffs on exports to the United States, where the administration of President Donald Trump has boosted import duties on Chinese goods to 20%, effective Tuesday.

A report by the Communist Party newspaper Global Times said China was considering retaliatory moves, including higher tariffs on U.S. exports of food and other agricultural goods.

On Friday, the S&P 500 jumped 1.6 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4%. The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.6% to 18,847.28.

The S&P 500 had dropped in five of the prior six days after weaker-than-expected reports on the economy and worries about President Donald Trump’s tariffs knocked the index off its all-time high set last week.

Stocks that flew in the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology have slumped sharply and Bitcoin dropped more than 20% from its record.

On Friday, Nvidia rose 4% following its 8.5% tumble Thursday and was the strongest force lifting the S&P 500.

Stocks rose following an economic report that included both positives and negatives. Inflation across the country cooled a bit as economists had expected, according to the measure that the Federal Reserve prefers to use. That’s good news for the entire market because it could give the central bank leeway to continue cutting its main interest rate at some point later this year.

The Fed has been keeping rates on hold so far this year after cutting them sharply late last year, in large part because of concerns about inflation, which is still high, even if it’s not as bad as its peak in 2022. A widespread worry is that increased tariffs and other policies announced by Trump could push prices for the cost of living even higher.

Friday’s report also said U.S. households pulled back on their spending during January, likely undermining a major engine that has been staving off a recession despite high interest rates.

Wall Street hopes that Trump is just using the tariffs as a bargaining chip in negotiating with other countries and that he’ll tamp them down. That would mean less pain for the global economy than initially feared.

But recent reports have nevertheless shown all the talk of tariffs has U.S. consumers bracing for much higher inflation, which could drag on the economy.

Uncertainty around tariffs, deregulation and other potential moves could mean “if the market doesn’t see Trump moving towards more market-friendly policies, the level of trust could continue eroding,” Bank of America economists wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

Of course, much of January’s drop in spending by U.S. households could have been the simple result of painfully cold weather around the country and other anomalies. But it also followed several signals of slowing growth for the U.S. economy, which closed 2024 running at a solid pace.

In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil picked up 42 cents to $70.18 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was up 43 cents at $73.24 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar fell to 150.46 Japanese yen from 150.72 yen. The euro rose to $1.0412 from $1.0402.

Early Monday, Bitcoin was trading at $92,500 after trading around $84,000 on Friday.

Source: AP

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Owen Li

Economic

From China’s artificial-intelligence successes to Dubai’s immigrant-led boom and rising prospects of debt restructuring in Venezuela and Lebanon, the winning emerging-market trades of 2025 all help investors withstand President Donald Trump’s trade agenda.

Such selective trades are protecting investors from the unpredictability of Trump’s second term because they aren’t reliant on exports to the US, interest-rate cuts or a weak dollar.

While benchmark indexes across stocks, bonds and currencies in developing markets have had the best start in years, the end of February brought a selloff, triggered by yet another of Trump’s tariff threats. EM assets traded little changed Monday as European leaders scurried to craft a plan for saving Ukraine — after a public showdown between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House.

“Despite all this negativity, one needs to find dislocation in market prices that give opportunities,” said Jitania Kandhari, deputy CIO at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Those ideas come in different shapes. Take the artificial-intelligence rally. Last year, investors earned some of the biggest returns in emerging markets by chasing local companies that get a boost from the AI boom in the US. The 81% surge in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, which makes chips used in AI applications, is an example.

This year, investors are dumping TSMC and buying Alibaba Group Holding, driving a 56% gain in the shares which accounted for more than two-thirds of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s advance in 2025.

Alibaba’s main appeal is that it focuses on China’s domestic AI adoption, not the spillover revenue from the US. That makes it a hedge against Trump’s tariffs as China will continue to invest in the technology. Plus, the DeepSeek saga has underscored the country’s strengths independent of the US.

Playing with the peg

For equity investors, a major risk is a stronger dollar that erodes returns earned in local currencies. That makes countries with stable currencies more compelling — especially if they have solid reserves to back up their pegs and dynamic growth stories.

“Many Middle East nations are interesting options,” said Brendan McKenna, an EM economist and FX strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York. “The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar in particular can act as safe havens or locations for investors to deploy capital and be isolated from Trump risk.”

The benchmark index in Dubai rose to a record high in February as an influx of expatriates boosted demand for everything from houses to cars and banking services. Besides a currency peg, many companies also have government backing, which ensures their revenue streams.

“Because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, investors in the UAE stock market are not exposed to FX risk,” said Carl Tohme, a fund manager at Cheyne Capital. “This is an advantage in a highly fluid situation globally.”

Trade shifts

Morgan Stanley IM focuses on economies with lower export sensitivity, a new domestic credit cycle, potential to benefit from global trade shifts and standalone reform stories.

The asset manager’s favoured targets are “companies and countries in Southeast Asia benefiting from the flow of capital and trade changes, pockets of eastern Europe, some oversold markets in Latam and some idiosyncratic frontier markets,” Kandhari said.

In Latin America, Brazil is emerging as an outperformer not only because of cheap valuations and prospects for rate hikes but also because it is not Mexico — the country directly in the crosshairs of Trump’s trade and foreign-policy assertions.

UBS Group AG is going long on the real versus the peso “to position for a divergence amidst real’s relative cheapness, carry and Brazil’s relatively low vulnerability to tariff risks vis-a-vis Mexico,” said Rohit Arora, EM strategist at the Swiss bank.

Standalone stories

In Colombia, the prospect of a business- and reform-friendly government coming to power next year has taken the country’s currency and stocks to the top of the EM leaderboard. Most of Venezuela’s defaulted bonds have left the “20 cent club”, trading above that limit for the first time in years as restructuring hopes build.

Turkey’s policy of keeping the lira appreciating in inflation-adjusted terms has made the volatile currency unusually stable for global investors, allowing them to benefit from double-digit carry returns. The country, along with Argentina, are touted as major reform story, resilient in the face of trade threats.

For many investors, including UBS, local-currency bonds are becoming a favoured asset class. Even as Trump’s tariffs may fuel US inflation and weigh on Federal Reserve easing, that won’t stop EM disinflation and rate cuts, they say. Those expectations have already spurred Bloomberg’s index for the asset class to the best start to a year since 2019.

“Selective investment in local-currency debt will tend to outperform,” said Marcelo Assalin, head of EM debt at William Blair. “The higher-yielding currencies like Brazil, Mexico, South Africa [and] Turkey will tend to outperform this year because they are very undervalued fundamentally and they offer much higher carry to investors.”

While the plethora of seemingly resilient investments have worked well in the first two months of the year, some investors caution against extrapolating the gains to the full year. On the last day of February, EM assets witnessed an across-the-board slump, highlighting how fragile these positions can be. to a tariff escalation.

“This is a storm that no one will be completely immune to,” said Charles Diebel, head of fixed income at Mediolanum International Funds.

What to Watch

- Across several emerging markets, data on purchasing managers’ indexes and inflation will be released, giving insights into economic activity at the start of the year

Wednesday’s Caixin China PMIs, both services and composite, will be keenly watched after a similar measure for manufacturing showed a faster expansion in February

- Turkey’s policymakers will announce their interest-rate decision on Thursday. Economists expect a 250 basis-point cut to 42.5%

Turkey will follow this with a release on inflation expectations on Friday which will give clues on whether the easing can continue

- Hungary and South Africa will detail GDP figures Tuesday

- Ukraine will announce a decision on its key rate on Thursday — as the country faces an uncertain path amid political rumblings over a peace process. Economies see a 100 basis-point hike to 15.5%.

- Mexico watchers will be looking out for the Central Bank Economist Survey on Monday, reserves data on Tuesday and inflation on Friday

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Cohen

Forex

Economic

USD/CHF posts modest losses to around 0.9020 in Monday’s early European session.

The rising bets of Fed rate cuts weigh on the US Dollar.

The uncertainty and escalating tension boost safe-haven assets like the Swiss FrancThe USD/CHF pair trades with mild losses near 0.9020 during the early European session on Tuesday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) broadly drags the pair lower. Traders will take more cues from the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which is due later on Monday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index ( DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six foreign currencies, weakens to nearly 107.25. Traders continue to price in the chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point twice by the end of this year. This, in turn, weighs on the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Additionally, the uncertainty and escalating tension surrounding the Russia and Ukraine conflict could boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). US President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was disrespectful" and canceled the signing of a minerals deal that would have brought Ukraine closer to resolving its conflict with Russia. Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding Russia's headlines.

Source: FXSTREET

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Cohen

Commodity

Gold price gained some positive traction on Monday amid modest US Dollar weakness.

Bets that the Fed will cut rates again undermine the USD and benefit the XAU/USD pair.

Concerns about Trump’s tariff plans and a global trade war also support the commodity.

Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note and recovers further from over a three-week low, around the $2,833-2,832 region touched on Friday. Despite Friday's in-line US inflation data, traders continue to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point twice by the end of this year. This, along with the emergence of fresh selling around the US Dollar (USD), lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Apart from this, concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and geopolitical risk turn out to be other factors underpinning the safe-haven Gold price. However, the lack of follow-through buying warrants some caution before confirming that the XAU/USD's recent corrective pullback from the all-time peak has run its course. Traders might also opt to wait for this week's release of important US macro data scheduled for the beginning of a new month.

Gold price is underpinned by bets for more Fed rate cuts and a weaker USD

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in January and increased 2.5% over the past twelve months, down slightly from 2.6% in December.

Adding to this, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.3% last month and climbed 2.6% on a yearly basis in January, marking a notable deceleration from 2.9% in the previous month.

The report further revealed that US consumer spending unexpectedly dropped 0.2% last month, marking the first decline since March 2023 and the biggest decrease in nearly four years, fueling worries about the US growth outlook.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants are pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting and lower borrowing costs again in September.

This comes on top of worries that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs would undermine consumer spending and fail to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on a three-day-old recovery move from over a two-month low.

Trump confirmed that he will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday and announced plans to double the 10% universal tariff on imports from China, raising the risk of a global trade war and benefiting the safe-haven Gold price.

Traders now look to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus later this Monday. Apart from this, other key US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, should influence the near-term USD trajectory.

Gold price technical setup warrants caution before placing fresh bullish bets

From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-February rally was seen as a key trigger for sellers. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, and back prospects for an extension of the corrective pullback from the all-time peak.

Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $2,885 region. This is closely followed by the $2,900 mark, above which the Gold price could climb to the $2,934 intermediate hurdle en route to the record high, around the $2,956 region.

On the flip side, Friday's swing low, around the $2,833-2,832 zone, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the Gold price could fall to 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $2,815-2,810 region. Some follow-through selling below the $2,800 mark would suggest that the commodity has topped out and could pave the way for deeper losses.

Source: FXSTREET

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Alex

Economic

China’s manufacturing activity picked up last month, according to a private survey, indicating economic resilience in the face of US President Donald Trump slapping more tariffs on the Asian nation’s exports.

The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 a month earlier, Caixin and S&P Global said in a statement on Monday. That compared to the median forecast of 50.4 by economists. An official gauge of factory activity released on Saturday showed a return to expansion in February.

Any reading above 50 signals an expansion of activity, and a figure below that means contraction.

The latest data comes as policymakers are expected to announce during a major meeting of the nation’s legislature this week that they will push China’s official budget deficit target to the highest in over three decades, pumping trillions of yuan into a system battling deflation, a property crash and a trade war with the US.

Thousands of delegates including ministry chiefs and provincial leaders will gather on Wednesday in Beijing for the conclave, where officials will set a bullish growth goal of around 5%, according to most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Economists have been calling for more stimulus, especially as the Trump administration takes aim at China with a series of moves involving investment, trade and other issues. It also plans an additional 10% tariff of Chinese shipments that is to take effect on Tuesday. China’s economy has been heavily reliant on exports for growth, irking some trade partners and prompting calls for bolstering the services sector.

The Caixin results have been mostly stronger than the official poll over the past year. The two surveys cover different sample sizes, locations and business types, with the private poll focusing on small and export-oriented firms.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Alex

Economic

Japan's factory activity shrank for an eighth consecutive month in February, while worries about US protectionist trade policies weighed on firms' outlook, a private-sector survey showed on Monday.

The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.7 in January, indicating the softest contraction in three months.

The index was slightly higher than 48.9 in the flash reading but stayed below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for the eighth straight month.

"Firms often mentioned weakness in domestic and global manufacturing demand and confidence," said Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiled the survey.

Firms cited muted demand conditions, particularly from the United States, Europe and China, according to the survey.

The key subindex of output shrank for the sixth straight month in February on softer global demand, but the pace of contraction eased from January.

New orders extended contraction, staying below the 50.0 threshold since mid-2023, with firms citing weak client confidence in Japan and the international market.

Japanese manufacturers stayed positive about their business outlook in February, though the level of optimism eased sharply from the previous month. Their expectations for the year-ahead outlook for output softened to the lowest since June 2020, the survey found.

US President Donald Trump's tariff threat against key trading partners have stoked uncertainty for investors and policymakers, as an escalating trade war could affect the global economy.

"Firms highlighted the potential downside risks of US protectionist trade policies and a slower-than-anticipated economic recovery," said Bhatti.

Employment levels stagnated in February, as a rise in staffing levels due to filling full-time vacancies was mostly offset by the non-replacement of voluntary leavers and retirements.

Input prices rose, driven by higher costs for raw materials, labour, and utilities, as well as exchange rate fluctuations. These higher operating costs prompted manufacturers to increase their selling prices at a faster pace.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Bitcoin Jumps, Could Extend Rise on Trump's Plan For Strategic Crypto Reserve

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

Stock Market Today: Asian Shares Waver Despite Wall St’s Rally and Upbeat Chinese Factory Data

Source: AP

Investors are Scouring Emerging Markets for Trump-Proof Bets

Source: Theedgemarkets

USD/CHF Trades With Mild Losses Below 0.9050 as Traders Brace for US PMI Release

Source: FXSTREET

Gold Price Trades with Mild Positive Bias; Lacks Bullish Conviction

Source: FXSTREET

China's Factory Activity Picks Up, Showing Economy’s Resilience

Source: Theedgemarkets

Japan's Factory Activity Shrinks, US Policies Weigh on Outlook, PMI Shows

Source: Theedgemarkets

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