Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTC price action lacks a trend, but a visit to $85,000 is in the cards if Bitcoin repeats its 2023 tricks, new research says.

Bitcoin may be lining up an August 2023 repeat as BTC price “choppiness” reaches extreme levels.

New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on Feb. 17 concludes that BTC/USD is “ready” for volatility.

Bitcoin gets key 2023 comparison

Bitcoin price action has rarely been so rangebound, and while volumes are dropping, market participants are bracing for a shakeout.

For CryptoQuant contributor Percival, the atmosphere is reminiscent of August 2023.

Highlighting readings from Bitcoin’s Choppiness Index, he noted that at the time, the return of volatility brought a snap drop before BTC/USD embarked on a multimonth uptrend.

“Our Choppiness Index on both the daily and weekly charts is quite unstable (62 and 72 respectively), meaning it urgently needs to enter a trend, suggesting a more aggressive movement to either side of the box,” he wrote alongside a corresponding chart.

“Evidence of this pressure is the 90-day range that Bitcoin has found, with fluctuations ranging around 16% from the maximum to the minimum of the lateral range.” Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_1

Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_1

BTC/USDT perpetual swaps chart with Choppiness Index (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Percival added that in 2023, before the uptrend, ”price cleared all traders of ‘boring’ positions in the opposite direction due to low volatility” — further strengthening the case for a major liquidity grab to come.

The Choppiness Index has seen multiple local peaks over the past six months as Bitcoin intersperses periods of rapid gains with grinding consolidations.

In December, Percival used its readings to correctly forecast a cooling-off period for BTC/USD once it hit the area around $110,000.

BTC price targets include $85,000 floor

Considering potential price floors should the 2023 scenario kick in, Percival flagged the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $92,000 as a level of interest.

Should this fail, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $85,000 per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, looked attractive.

“The possibility of false moves before the bull run is strong, many breakout traders are positioned in these zones, and the sovereign market tends to blow up these positions and return to the expected course!” he concluded. Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_2

Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_2

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the proportion of unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, of STH entity transactions in profit or loss, meanwhile reflects its mildly negative values from August 2023. Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_3

Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price_3

Bitcoin STH-SOPR chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

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Alex

Economic

0809 GMT - BT's Openreach revenue will likely decline in the near term and continue out to 2030, Citi analysts write in a note. The fall in consumer price index combined with continued broadband base decline support the forecast for lower revenue, the analysts say. This questions the U.K. telecommunications company's ability to achieve its guidance for 3 billion pounds of normalized free cash flow by the end of the decade, they add. The sustainability of BT's consumer pricing dynamic in the long term also raises concerns, they say. "Consensus is over-optimistic in expecting restructuring specific item costs to reduce significantly in the next few years." The U.S. bank downgrades its recommendation on the stock to sell from buy and cuts its target price to 112 pence from 200 pence. Shares are down 4.6% at 144.45 pence.

0803 GMT - Singapore Technologies Engineering's order wins are poised to support growth beyond 2024, RHB Research's Shekhar Jaiswal says in a research report. Earlier this month, the technology and engineering group unveiled a strong S$4.3 billion of orders won for 4Q 2024, the analyst notes. This winning streak has persisted in 2025, as its commercial aerospace business has recently secured maintenance, repair and overhaul contracts for aircraft engines with two major Middle Eastern operators, the analyst says. The company's earnings outlook remains positive, says RHB, which expects CAGR of roughly 15% for 2023-2026. RHB has a buy rating and target price of S$5.20 on the shares, which are 1.2% higher at S$5.06.

0800 GMT - China's recent AI-driven stock rally may signal broader improvements in the country's venture capital ecosystem, Pepperstone research strategist Dilin Wu says in a note. DeepSeek's success has proven that AI startups can deliver tech breakthroughs even with limited computing power, the analyst notes. Its success could open new technical pathways for the sector and provide early-stage Chinese tech companies with access to more funding and resources, Wu says. This shift has energized the AI sector and spurred growth across the tech supply chain, such as in chip and AI hardware makers, the analyst adds. China's recent policy tailwinds to support high-quality tech companies should further fuel innovation, Wu adds.

0758 GMT - Mercedes-Benz will hold a capital markets day along with the presentation of its 2024 results, and management will be graded on the credibility of achieving the targets that will be announced at the event, Bernstein analysts write. "Having flunked with its recent battery-electric vehicles, Mercedes has a high hurdle to overcome." The bank expects to learn more details of the company's cost-cutting program, as well as a new weather map to describe its expected performance and prevailing market conditions. The bank expects management to address the poor share price performance and shareholder return plans, as well as offer an update on its plans for China. Bernstein will also look for a strategic update regarding electrification and mix. Shares closed at 61.50 euros.

0739 GMT - The FTSE 100 is expected to open six points higher, or 0.1%, according to IG. The index closed 35 points higher, or 0.4%, to 8768 points on Monday. Data Tuesday showed the U.K. unemployment rate held at 4.4% while average earnings, excluding bonuses, accelerated to 5.9% year-on-year in the three months to December. Economists in a WSJ survey expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% while wage growth was in line with forecasts. "Overall, today's data release provides little evidence that the Bank of England will deviate from its current gradual approach to interest rate cuts," Capital Economics economist Ashley Webb says in a note.

0726 GMT - Aztech Global's order book may recover in 2026, CGS International's William Tng says in a research report. A key customer for the electronics-product manufacturer may still need some time to digest excess inventories before a potential order rebound in 2026, the analyst says. The company will also likely continue efforts to achieve customer diversification, Tng says, noting the company has been engaging potential and current customers in new product activities. The brokerage upgrades the stock to add from reduce as a recent order-book slowdown has probably been priced in. CGS raises the target price to S$0.82 from S$0.78. Shares are 5.8% higher at S$0.73.

0711 GMT - Chinese shares closed lower positive sentiment over President Xi's meeting with tech CEOs and the recent Chinese AI hype took a back seat. Investors are watching for the "Two Sessions" meeting in early March to evaluate Beijing's economic growth plan for this year. Semiconductor and technology stocks led the gains. Will Semiconductor closed 5.4% higher and Shengyi Technology rose 4.6%. Meanwhile consumption and media stocks led losses, with Mango Excellent Media down 6.9%. Oppein Home lost 6.0% and Focus Media Information Technology fell 3.9%. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.9% lower at 3324.49 and the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.0%. The ChiNext Price Index ended 2.0% lower.

0655 GMT - Nordic markets are seen opening slightly higher, with IG calling the OMXS30 up 0.1% at around 2746. Leaders of major European economies met in Paris last night and confirmed the need for Europe to increase its defense spending, SEB says in a note. Defense spending will be excluded from the EU's budgetary rules, but given the debt situation in many economies, joint borrowing in some form cannot be ruled out, SEB adds. U.S. markets were closed yesterday but European stock markets rose, largely driven by the defense sector. Stock market futures are currently pointing upwards in the U.S. and a little more sideways in Europe. Geopolitics probably gets the most attention today, as representatives of the U.S. and Russia meet in Saudi Arabia, SEB adds. The OMXS30 closed at 2743.26, OMXN40 at 2609.03 and OBX at 1409.09.

0655 GMT - Samvardhana Motherson International's growth may be supported by some tailwinds, Nomura analysts say in a research report as they maintain the stock's buy rating. Availability of Japanese technology along with acquisitions will be leveraged worldwide, based on commentary from the automotive components manufacturer's management. Also, management anticipates very strong ramp-up in the Indian company's consumer electronics plant from 4Q FY 2025, with two larger plants coming online in FY 2026-2027, the analysts note. However, Nomura cuts its target price-to-earnings ratio for the company to 18x from 22x to reflect risks from global uncertainty over tariffs affecting demand. It lowers the stock's target price to INR155.00 from INR209.00. Shares are 1.6% higher at INR126.90.

0647 GMT - South Korean shares gained for a sixth straight session, with the benchmark Kospi closing 0.6% higher at 2626.81. Foreign and institutional investors were net buyers. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose 1.6% following its announcement to cancel around KRW3 trillion of shares. Howitzer and aircraft-engine maker Hanwha Aerospace climbed 11%, extending solid gains after showcasing its long-range surface-to-air missile system at this week's exhibition in Abu Dhabi. Most local defense stocks were higher, with guided missile manufacturer LIG Nex1 rising 9.1%. USD/KRW settled 0.1% higher at 1,443.70 in Seoul onshore trading. South Korea's 10-year government bond yield was down 0.3 bps at 2.866%.

While no regulatory action is required, and corrective measures have been taken, recent fines for prolonged service disruptions and the CFO's departure could collectively raise Maybank's reputational risk and hurt investors' confidence, TA Securities analyst Li Hsia Wong says. "Maybank CFO's Departure May Damp Investors' Confidence — Market Talk," at 0432 GMT, incorrectly said that no corrective measures have been taken.

0549 GMT - Thai Union Group's growth could be curbed by higher costs, Maybank Securities (Thailand)'s Tanida Jirapornkasemsuk says in a research report. The seafood products producer's selling, general and administrative expenses-to-sales ratio will probably increase this year owing to higher transformation costs and marketing expenses aimed at boosting sales of branded products, the analyst says. Also, the increase in the company's effective tax rate to 15% this year from 7.5% last year due to implementation of the global minimum tax scheme may drag down its 2025 core EPS. The brokerage lowers the stock's target price to THB12.00 from THB13.60 with an unchanged hold rating. Shares are 1.7% higher at THB12.10.

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

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Cohen

Economic

Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose to their highest levels in more than a decade on Tuesday as an auction for 20-year bonds saw low demand as investors continued to puzzle out how fast and high the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may increase interest rates.

The 10-year JGB yield (JP10YTN=JBTC) ticked up 2.5 basis points (bps) to its highest since November 2009 to 1.41%, while 10-year JGB futures (2JGBv1) fell 0.37 points to 139.01 yen.

The 20-year JGB yield (JP20YTN=JBTC) climbed 6 bps to 2.065%, a level last seen in April 2011, following the auction of corresponding bonds. It was last at 2.06%.

The bid-to-cover ratio, a common measure at auctions where a large number indicates more demand, came in at just 3.06 compared with 3.79 in January. It was the weakest showing of demand since October.

Analysts cited uncertainties about the outlook for the BOJ's rate hike path among reasons for the poor result.

"While the yield level looked fairly positive for the auction, we're in a situation where we don't know where yields will stop. That factor worked as a negative," said Yurie Suzuki, a market analyst at Mizuho Securities.

Yields move inversely to bond prices, rising as bonds are sold and prices fall.

Market players have been expecting the BOJ to continue gradually hiking rates as it normalises monetary policy, but questions remain about the pace and extent.

That's creating a strong sense of uncertainty, putting upward pressure on bonds, said Suzuki.

Recent hawkish comments from policymakers and sticky inflation are pushing forward rate hike expectations, shaking long-held views that rates would not rise much.

Remarks by BOJ board member Hajime Takata on Wednesday and a domestic CPI report on Friday will be in focus.

The two-year JGB yield (JP2YTN=JBTC) and five-year yield (JP5YTN=JBTC) both ticked up 1.5 bps to 0.82% and 1.065%, respectively, sitting at their highest since October 2008.

The 30-year JGB yield (JP30YTN=JBTC) touched a one-month high of 2.345%.

Source:Reuters

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Alex

Economic

The Indian rupee weakened slightly on Tuesday as the impact of weak regional currencies and heightened dollar demand - spurred by positions in the non-deliverable forwards market - was blunted by likely dollar-selling by the central bank.

The rupee was at 86.9550 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:50 a.m. IST, down from its close of 86.8775 in the previous session.

Heightened appetite for dollars at the daily reference rate weighed on the rupee, a trader at a foreign bank said.

The reference rate, or the daily fix, was last quoted at a 0.30/0.50 paisa premium, signalling strong dollar bids, per the trader.

However, state-run banks were spotted offering dollars in early trading near the 86.94-86.95 levels, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which capped the currency's losses traders said.

Asian currencies weakened between 0.1% to 0.4% as the dollar index rose nearly 0.3% to 107, extending its recovery from a two-month low hit last week.

U.S. bond yields nudged higher as well, with the 10-year Treasury yield up four basis points at 4.51%. The 1-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose, hurting dollar-rupee forward premiums.

The dollar-rupee 1-year implied yield was last quoted lower by two bps at 2.11%, its lowest level in over two months.

Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates on pause and that the RBI will deliver a cut at its April meeting are likely to weigh on far forwards, a swap dealer at a bank said.

"In the lead-up to the April meeting, expect the 1-year to touch its support level at 1.95%," the dealer said.

Fed officials have also signalled caution about future rate cuts in recent remarks, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman saying she wanted increased conviction that inflation will decline further this year before lowering interest rates again.

Source:Reuters

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Owen Li

Economic

Asian currencies eased on Tuesday, with the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso losing the most, as traders weighed the risk of a major global tariff war and reassessed the trajectory of U.S. interest rates.

The peso and the Malaysian ringitt declined by 0.4% each, while the rupiah was set for its worst day since February 10, slipping 0.4% after a four-session rally.

The dollar index rose by 0.2% to 106.9 after a three-session losing streak amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.

The greenback was bolstered by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's support for maintaining current monetary policy until inflation eases, after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in nearly 18 months in January.

"Markets have been positioning for tariff trade (i.e. long USD), but the repeated delays in Trump tariffs have frustrated USD bulls thus far," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.

However, the delays to U.S. tariffs, peace negotiations over Ukraine, underperforming U.S. economic indicators such as retail sales, and a reassessment of Chinese tech stocks due to initiatives like DeepSeek are creating a favourable environment for risk assets to recover while the dollar retreats, Wong said.

Indonesia's central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday to curb weakness in the currency, according to a Reuters poll, suggesting global headwinds could limit the central bank's ability to ease rates this year.

The rupiah has fallen more than 1% since the start of the year.

The peso has extended losses since Governor Eli Remolona's comments on uncertainities over global trade policies on Thursday.

The Singapore government started presenting its budget at 0730 GMT. The Singapore dollar fell 0.2%, while equities were up 0.4%.

The Thai baht extended losses and was last down 0.2%, after data showed that the country's economy grew more slowly than expected in 2024.

Equities in Manila and Jakarta were up 1.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

Source:Reuters

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Alex

Economic

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased monetary policy, cutting the interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, according to Forex Factory.

As reported by Reuters:

This marks the first easing since the 2020 pandemic;

RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that market expectations for two more cuts this year are “ambitious”;

The bank’s leadership remains cautious about further easing prospects.

While analysts had accurately predicted the February rate cut, AUD/USD saw volatility without a significant move, possibly because market participants are more focused on Trump’s tariff plans, which could impact global trade and Forex markets.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Today

Since mid-December, the AUD/USD pair has mostly traded within the 0.6200–0.6300 range, except for early February’s sharp drop when Trump’s tariff policies shook currency markets.

However, demand appears resilient:

After plunging to around 0.6100, the price quickly rebounded into the range;

Arrows highlight rapid recoveries after short-term dips;

A blue ascending trend channel is forming on the chart.

These factors suggest growing appeal for the Australian dollar, with the 0.6300 level potentially acting as support going forward.

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Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Warren Takunda

Economic

British pay growth accelerated in the last three months of 2024, according to official data published on Tuesday that underscored why the Bank of England has adopted a careful stance about cutting interest rates again despite a weak overall economy.

Private-sector pay excluding bonuses - the BoE's main gauge of domestic inflation pressure - rose by 6.2% compared with the same period a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year and up from 5.9% in the three months to November, the Office for National Statistics said.

Sterling rose against the dollar immediately after the data release.

Suren Thiru, economics director at accountancy body ICAEW, said the data did not show signs of a deterioration in the economy, which meant an interest rate cut at the BoE's next meeting in March was unlikely.

But "the downward pressure from a stagnating economy, a loosening labour market and April’s jump in businesses' costs mean this current upswing (in pay growth) is likely to be short-lived," Thiru said.

Employers say finance minister Rachel Reeves' plan to increase the social security contributions they pay from April will reduce hiring and wage growth.

However, the pace of pay increases has remained far above levels consistent with the BoE's 2% inflation target.

The central bank said this month it expected annual private sector wage growth of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of last year - slightly higher than the ONS reading - before a deceleration over the course of this year.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said in an interview with Reuters last week that he believed the main problem for Britain's sluggish economy was one of supply - including a shortage of workers.

The ONS said pay across the whole economy, excluding bonuses, was 5.9% higher in the three months to the end of December than a year earlier, the strongest reading since the three months to April last year.

Including bonuses, pay was up by 6.0%, its fastest since the end of 2023.

A Reuters poll had pointed to both wage measures rising by 5.9%.

The BoE expects pay increases to slow soon as weakness in the economy weighs on the labour market.

British gross domestic product stagnated in the third quarter of 2024 but unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last three months of the year.

A survey published on Monday showed that around one in three employers planned to cut headcount as they responded to Reeves' tax increase.

Tuesday's official data showed vacancies fell by 9,000 in the three months to January from the three months to October but remained 23,000 higher than immediately before the coronavirus pandemic.

Separate data provided by employers to the tax authorities showed the number of employees rose by 21,000 in January from December, only the third rise in the past eight months.

Britain's unemployment rate, based on a survey that the ONS is overhauling and is no longer considered an accurate gauge, held at 4.4%.

Source: Reuters

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Bitcoin Teases August 2023 Breakdown as Analysis Eyes $85K BTC Price

Bitcoin gets key 2023 comparison

BTC/USDT perpetual swaps chart with Choppiness Index (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

BTC price targets include $85,000 floor

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin STH-SOPR chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

Global Equities Roundup

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

JGB yields march to fresh highs

Source:Reuters

Rupee's dip cushioned by likely RBI intervention, forward premiums decline

Source:Reuters

Asian FX fall on tariff war fears, expectation of steady US rates

Source:Reuters

AUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High after RBA Decision

Source: ACTIONFOREX

UK Wage Growth Speeds Up, Highlighting BoE's Inflation Caution

Source: Reuters

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