Bond Market’s Bet on a Half-point Fed Cut This Month is Over

Economic

Bond

Summary:

The bond market has ended its long flirtation with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by half a point this month as resilient inflation and labor market data reinforce a measured course of action.

Swap traders have fully priced in a quarter-point reduction at the Fed’s policy announcement next week. The Treasury market ended lower Wednesday after a choppy session that started with a selloff in the wake of inflation data. The S&P 500 Index rebounded to close 1.1% higher after a volatile trading day. Stocks closely tied to the economy, including equipment rental companies and debt-heavy small caps, were among the most hit in trading before closing higher.

“Both the bond market and the Fed need to see where the economy lands,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income, DWS Americas.

Whether the economy is entering a soft landing that only requires a series of modest rate cuts, as seen in 2019 and 1995, or heading for a harder landing at some stage in the next year is the biggest conundrum for investors.

The policy-sensitive two-year yield initially rose as much as 9.5 basis points to 3.69%, with the 10-year note backing up 4 basis points to 3.68%. At the end of the session the front end remained higher by about 5 basis points.

“A point of pain is the front end as the market has priced in so many cuts,” said Catrambone.

The central bank has held rates from 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023, and as inflation pressure moderated during the past 14 months, that policy setting has become increasingly restrictive. This trend spurred Fed officials in recent weeks to set the stage for an easing cycle to start this month.

“The Fed’s going to start cutting, and we’ll see 25 basis points in September,” said Matt Eagan, portfolio manager and head of the Full Discretion team at Loomis Sayles.

Once the Fed begins lowering borrowing costs, the debate will center around the pace of subsequent easing. Fed officials have identified a softening in the labor market as the spark that would spur faster easing in the coming months. But a string of weaker-than-expected employment reports did not build a case for rapid cuts.

Eagen expects a shallow rate-cutting cycle that results in the Fed easing toward 3.5%, not current market expectations of less than 3%, as Loomis expects inflation pressure holds up due to “structural tailwinds” that includes “predominantly the deficit, an aging population, and security concerns around geopolitics.”

For traders, the tail risk for the market over the coming months is the performance of the economy and the jobs sector. Two monthly employment reports are due before the Fed announces its Nov. 7 meeting outcome just a couple of days after US elections.

Currently, Fed swaps are pricing in over 140 basis points of rate cuts by the Jan. 29 rate decision, equivalent to roughly two half-point moves over the next four gatherings barring no intra-meeting event.

In terms of market vulnerability, the two-year yield is likely to shift higher should the Fed deliver a measured pace of rate cuts that falls short of the 250 basis points of easing priced by futures contracts for September 2025.

“We were never in the 50 basis point camp, and it seems like the modest upside surprise in CPI would likely be enough to give any policymakers considering a bigger move pause,” said Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights.

On Wednesday, following the CPI data, Citi economists ditched their forecast for a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, while maintaining their call for a total of 125 basis points of easing this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. remains a holdout sticking with its bet that the Fed would slash rates by a half-percentage point this month.

“The Fed got lucky that the CPI data bailed them out. I suspect that fed funds futures will recede sufficiently now that the FOMC need not intervene to massage expectations going into the meeting,” said Stephen Stanley, the chief US economist at Santander Capital Markets.

Last month’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole economic symposium and subsequent Fed speak provided little guidance on the central bank’s policy path for the rest of the year, he added.

Source: The edge markets

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Pepperstone

Economic

As noted, the MPC are likely to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 5.00% at the conclusion of the September meeting, electing to hold steady, and continuing to examine the impact of August’s 25bp cut, the first cut of the cycle. Money markets, per the GBP OIS curve, are well-priced for such an outcome, discounting just a negligible 18% chance of a second straight Bank Rate cut, though said pricing is subject to change, depending on the August CPI figures, due just a day before the 19th September BoE decision.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_1

In contrast to the knife-edge 5-4 vote in favour of a cut last time around, the vote split at the September meeting seems set to be a much more straightforward affair, even if MPC officials have seldom spoken publicly of late, making it somewhat difficult to discern individual policy views. Nevertheless, the August statement set a relatively high bar for further policy easing, with the ‘Old Lady’ set to plot a much slower and steadier course back towards neutral than that of other G10 peers.

This time around, an 8-1 vote in favour of maintaining Bank Rate seems the most likely outcome. Three of the four hawks from August – Chief Economist Pill, plus external members Greene and Mann – are again likely to favour Bank Rate remaining unchanged; the fourth, Jonathan Haskel, has now left the MPC. That said, his replacement, Alan Taylor, along with Governor Bailey, and his deputies Sarah Breeden, Clare Lombardelli, and Dave Ramsden, are all likely to favour rates remaining on hold this time around. External member Dhingra, the resident uber-dove on Threadneedle Street, will probably favour a second straight 25bp cut, though there is a risk Ramsden may also land in this camp, given his stance of voting for a cut back in June, earlier than almost all of his MPC colleagues.

Accompanying the vote split is likely to be policy guidance that remains broadly unchanged from that delivered at the August decision. Once again, the MPC will likely reiterate that policy must remain “restrictive for sufficiently long” until the risks of inflation persistence have further diminished, while also repeating that a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to policymaking will continue to be followed. In light of this, the curve discounting 50bp of easing by year-end, and 150bp in the next twelve months, seems rather over-ambitious.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_2

Since the August meeting, the UK economy has continued to evolve broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations.

Headline inflation ticked higher in July, to 2.2% YoY, though such a rise was almost entirely due to the base effect produced by energy prices, which fell less this summer than in 2023. Underlying inflation metrics show that the broad-based disinflationary trend remains intact, with core CPI having fallen to 3.3% YoY, a near 3-year low, and services CPI having fallen to 5.2% YoY, a 2-year low.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_3

The risks of inflation persistence have also further receded by virtue of developments in the labour market. Regular pay rose by an annual 5.1% in the three months to July, the slowest such increase in a couple of years, while overall pay rose by 4.0% YoY over the same period, the lowest increase since the tail end of 2020. While both are still too hot to sound the ‘all clear’, the direction of travel remains promising.

Unemployment, meanwhile, declined to 4.1% in July, a further fall from the 4.4% cycle high seen during the second quarter, and substantially better than the BoE’s 4.4% Q3 2024 forecast. Data issues, however, continue to plague the ONS’ Labour Force Survey, with policymakers continuing to place relatively little weight on measures of labour market slack, owing to low survey response rates, and higher-than-usual volatility in the figures.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_4

The growth outlook, however, is a little more mixed. Despite the manufacturing PMI rising to a 26-month high in August, and the comparable services gauge having remained in expansionary territory for 10 straight months, ‘hard’ data tells a more pessimistic story. GDP growth stagnated, on an MoM basis, in both June and July, with the rolling 3-month growth rate falling to 0.5%, almost entirely due to the growth seen in May.

This slowdown in GDP growth, however, is not entirely surprising, with it having always seemed unlikely that the economy would maintain the strong pace of growth seen in the first six months of 2024. Downside risks, though, continue to grow, particularly as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and ahead of the anticipated fiscal tightening to be delivered in October’s Budget.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_5

Away from the economic outlook, the other main area of concern for market participants at the September BoE meeting will be the MPC’s updated views on quantiatitve tightening (QT).

Since September 2022, the Bank have not only engaged in ‘passive’ QT, by letting maturing securities roll-off the balance sheet in order to reduce its size, but also ‘active’ QT, conducting gilt sales at a pace of £50bln, comprising roughly half of the £100bln annual balance sheet shrinkage. While such sales have been surprisingly well-received by financial markets, they also have the effect of crystallising significant losses for Government, due to the rise in interest rates which has taken place this cycle.

Of course, with the MPC being independent, these considerations should not influence their decisions as to how QT will evolve over the next year; the Bank giving a ‘helping hand’ to the new Government by slowing QT would not be viewed favourably by market participants.

Nevertheless, there are a few other moving parts here. Usage of the Bank’s short-term weekly repo operations has continued to sky-rocket during the summer months, with repo rates having also increased, implying a shortage of cash within the financial system, which could be alleviated by slowing QT, and thus increasing liquidity. However, policymakers, including Governor Bailey, have flagged that they expect usage of these repo operations to continue to increase as the balance sheet shrinks, and do not appear particularly perturbed by these developments just yet.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_6

Furthermore, one could argue that the balance sheet is currently working against the aims of reducing Bank Rate. Clearly, the MPC have reached the stage in the cycle where policy restriction can now begin to be removed, even if the pace of rate cuts will be relatively gradual. Reducing the size of the balance sheet, however, acts as a tightening in financial conditions, thus inhibiting some of the impact of Bank Rate cuts as they are transmitted through the financial system.

On the other hand, 2025 brings a temporary spike in gilt redemptions meaning that, if the overall pace of QT were to remain unchanged at £100bln per annum, active sales would fall to around £15bln, a sizeable and perhaps unnecessary slowing in the pace of balance sheet reduction.

There is, then, a case for the MPC to actually quicken the pace of QT at the September meeting, in order to ensure that the rate of active sales remains the same. While the ‘path of least resistance’ would, probably, be to leave QT settings unchanged, participants should be alert to a potential quickening, and subsequent headwinds that this could pose to gilts.

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November_7

For the GBP, the September MPC decision seems unlikely to be a game-changer in any way. However, the decision should once again reiterate how the ‘Old Lady’ is taking a more gradual approach to policy normalisation than most of her G10 peers, potentially underpinning the GBP in the medium-term, so long as the recent run of economic resilience also continues.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Central Bank

European stock markets displayed mixed movements following the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next interest rate decision and turned their focus towards the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming rate announcement later today.

On Wednesday, the Euro Stoxx 600 index ended flat after fluctuating throughout the session, while the DAX closed higher.

The euro came under pressure against the US dollar as major European government bond yields declined, whereas US Treasury yields edged upwards.

In contrast, Wall Street saw a tech-driven rally, alongside a rise in the US dollar. Following the rally, futures point to a higher open across Europe today.

Cooling US inflation fails to reach ideal target level

In August, US consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in July, aligning with expectations. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate since February 2021.

However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% from July, higher than the anticipated 0.2%, resulting in a 3.2% annual rise, matching forecasts.

These figures have reduced the likelihood of a 0.5% rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its 17-18 September policy meeting.

Markets are now pricing in a quarter-point rate reduction instead of the half-point cut expected a month ago.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a quarter-point cut has risen to 85%, up from 50% in August.

ECB likely to signal hawkish stance with rate cut

Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to implement its second 0.25% rate cut this year at the upcoming meeting.

However, the bank is likely to adopt a cautious tone regarding future actions, warning of the potential for inflation to resurge, especially following the slight rise in US core inflation.

According to flash estimates, Eurozone consumer price growth eased to 2.2% in August, marking the slowest increase since July 2021.

However, core inflation, as in the US, remains persistent at 2.8%. The sharp decline in annual inflation can also be attributed in part to a higher base last year.

Eurostat highlighted that "the slowdown was due to a sharp fall in energy costs as base effects came into play in August".

Implications on the euro and European stocks

The market reaction to the US CPI data revealed that investors have become cautious about the future policy paths of central banks.

Major European benchmarks have remained relatively flat this week, suggesting that optimism for substantial interest rate cuts has diminished, with expectations now shifting towards a more hawkish stance from the ECB.

A further decline in European markets could be anticipated if the ECB signals slower-than-expected progress on rate cuts.

The EUR/USD pair hit a 13-month high of nearly 1.12 in late August before retreating to 1.10 in the early Asian session today.

The euro's recent rise against the USD has lost momentum in September, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be adopting a more hawkish stance than previously anticipated.

This could result in a weaker euro against the dollar this month.

Additionally, sterling weakened following disappointing UK GDP data on Wednesday.

The UK's economy stagnated for the second consecutive month in July, which could prompt the Bank of England to continue its rate cuts for the remainder of the year.

Source: Euronews

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S&P Global Inc.

Economic

Emerging market economic growth slowed midway through the third quarter of 2024, according to S&P Global's PMI surveys, but remained relatively more broad-based compared with developed markets as both manufacturing and service sector continued to expand. The slowdown in manufacturing output expansion is nevertheless worth monitoring, particularly with trade conditions having worsened for the first time in 2024.

Meanwhile the easing of price pressure, as observed via falling input cost and output inflation rates, provides room for emerging market central banks to lower rates as we await the commencement of Fed cuts in the US.

Emerging market growth lags developed markets again in August

The PMI surveys compiled globally by S&P Global found that rate at which output expanded across the emerging markets collectively slowed for a third successive month, unfolding at the joint-slowest pace since October 2023. The GDP-weighted Emerging Market PMI Output Index fell to 52.1 in August, down from 52.4 in July. This extended the sequence of growth that commenced in January 2023.

Compared with developed markets, this marked a second straight month in which the rate at which emerging market expanded fell behind that of the developed world. The last time that emerging markets underperformed developed economies to at least the current extent was back in May 2022.

That said, emerging market growth remained more broad-based compared to developed markets. Output has continuously increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors for a twentieth successive month as of August 2024. In contrast, the expansion in developed market activity, while having accelerated to a three-month high, was entirely driven by improvements in the service sector as manufacturing output fell at the quickest pace since January.

India leads growth among major emerging market economies

Diving into the conditions across the four major emerging market economies, India continued to lead growth with an unchanged rate of expansion in August. That said, here services likewise took over from the manufacturing sector as the sector with a higher rate of growth. Quicker expansion in services activity had offset the slowest rise in manufacturing output since January in India. Notably, business optimism in India's manufacturing sector also eased, sliding to the lowest since April 2023 amid concerns over competition pressures and inflation.

Following India were Brazil and Russia, both recording moderate rates of expansion in August. For Brazil, August saw the first decline in manufacturing production this year, which meant that services remained the only pillar of growth midway through the third quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile mainland China also saw an unchanged rate of expansion, though here a marginal improvement in manufacturing output helped to offset softer services activity growth.

Emerging market manufacturing sector conditions in focus

While services growth remained relatively solid for emerging markets, the slowdown in manufacturing production expansion is a trend worth monitoring.

The softest rise in manufacturing output in ten months is underpinned by only a marginal rise in goods new orders, the latter tends to also provide forward-looking properties for sector activity. Despite accelerating from July, the rate at which emerging market manufacturing orders rose was among the lowest in the current 13-month sequence of growth.

Crucially, exports orders for goods fell for the first time this year. Although supply constraints again played a part in dampening export performance, findings from the August PMI also showed that demand conditions weakened as destocking among manufacturers renewed in August. Moreover, confidence levels among global manufacturers deteriorated in the latest survey period, contrasting with improvements observed in the service sector. Fortunately, emerging market good producers broadly maintained the same confidence level as July, evidently with pending rate cuts, especially in the developed world, potentially injecting further confidence in the months ahead.

Selling price inflation at 15-month low

With the US Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates imminently in September, the focus is also on further potential moves in the emerging market space. Turning to PMI price indicators for clues on inflation, the latest August data showed that price pressures have softened in the latest survey period.

Average selling prices rose at the slowest pace since May 2023 with both emerging market manufacturers and service providers raising charges less quickly. This was also evidently in the Asia excluding-Japan region, whereby service charges in fact fell for the first time since April 2022.

Softer emerging market selling price inflation was underpinned by a slower rise in input costs in August, as we see input cost inflation down at a four-month low. That said, this was entirely manufacturing-driven, as services input price inflation intensified for a second successive month, though with the rate of inflation remaining below the historical-average.

The bigger picture altogether answers the question as to whether there remain room for emerging market central banks to manoeuvre as the Fed embark on their rate cut cycle, though emerging market growth conditions have evidently yet to deteriorate to a state that would compel central banks in the region to swiftly move in step with major developed economies central banks at present.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Alex

Commodity

Gold (XAU/USD) continues trading in its established range just below its all-time high on Thursday, as traders await more US inflation data, this time in the form of “factory gate” price inflation, or the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August. The data could further impact expectations regarding the trajectory of US interest rates, which in turn will likely impact both the price of Gold and the US Dollar (USD).

In addition, Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting could further impact Gold price, depending on how much easing the ECB decides to implement. The bank will also republish its economic projections, with fears it could radically revise down economic growth and inflation forecasts for the region in light of recent downbeat data from Germany, the largest member of the bloc.

Market sentiment turns positive, meanwhile, after Asian stocks rose overnight, commodities rebounded, and European bourses clock gains. The upbeat mood is likely to weigh on safe-haven Gold.

Gold fell after US inflation data showed rise in core component

Gold price weakened on Wednesday, falling from the range highs to a low of around $2,500 after the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August showed a higher-than-expected uptick in core CPI of 0.3% versus expectations of 0.2% and 0.2% previously.

The stickier-than-expected core CPI led traders to downgrade the probabilities of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by a larger 0.50% at their meeting next week, with expectations rising for a more cautious 0.25% cut instead.

The data lifted the US Dollar but weighed on Gold as the expectation that interest rates might remain elevated for longer reduces the attractiveness of non-interest-paying assets, like Gold.

The release of PPI data on Thursday, as well as the conclusion of the ECB policy meeting, could further calibrate expectations regarding the future course of interest rates globally – a key driver for Gold.

US Jobless Claims data could also influence the trajectory of the yellow metal given the Fed’s focus on the weakening labor market.

Technical Analysis: Gold makes multiple touches to top-of-range

Gold (XAU/USD) trades back in the middle of its multi-week sideways range after briefly retesting the all-time high of $2,531 on Wednesday.

As seen from the chart below, Gold price has tested the ceiling of the range on multiple occasions (orange-shaded circles) and, according to technical analysis theory, this suggests that if it does eventually break through, the move will be volatile.

XAU/USD 4-hour Chart

The longer-term trend for Gold is bullish, and since “the trend is your friend,” this increases the odds of an eventual breakout higher materializing.

The precious metal has an as-yet unreached bullish target at $2,550, generated after the original breakout from the July-August range on August 14. If Gold breaks above the range highs, it will probably rapidly reach its goal.

A break above the August 20 all-time high of $2,531 would provide more confirmation of a continuation higher toward the $2,550 target.

The short-term trend is now sideways, however, so it is also quite possible the yellow metal will continue trading up and down within its multi-week range between the $2,480s and the $2,531 record high.

If Gold closes below $2,460 it would change the picture and bring the bullish bias into question.

Source: FXSTREET

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Kevin Du

Commodity

Crude Oil pops over 1.50% for a second day in a row after booking over 1.50% gains on Wednesday, which was the biggest daily gain for Crude Oil in two weeks. The uptick comes amid increasing concerns over the impact of tropical storm Francine on US production and after the most recent OPEC report – which cut the outlook for Oil demand – was deemed unrealistic considering recent US and global economic activity.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is stronger and tests the upper band of its tight bandwidth in which it has been trading for over two weeks. The stronger Greenback emerged after US Consumer Price Index data revealed a surprise uptick in the monthly core measure. That closed the door for a 50-basis-point rate cut from the US Federal Reserve next week, supporting the US Dollar.

Oil news and market movers: Statistics add up

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, which showed that the recent outage from Libya triggered a 70,000 barrels per day decline in OPEC’s daily output. Supply from Libya declined by 180,000 barrels per day to 980,000, Bloomberg reported.

The IEA also reported that supply from the Gulf producers was largely steady, with Saudi output unchanged at 9.01 million barrels per day, Iraq at 4.38 million b/d, UAE at 3.3 million b/d and Kuwait at 2.52 million b/d, Reuters reports.

In the US, tropical storm Francine has hit the coast of Louisiana, reaching a Category 2 strength. Oil and gas companies had previously evacuated offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, Reuters reported.

Oil Technical Analysis: Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t

Crude Oil price is set for volatility, and it has no one other than OPEC to thank for it. Still, the chances for more downside look higher than the potential for rebound. Should OPEC tweak its policy and prolong production cuts, or broaden them, markets could interpret it as a sign of weakness and perceive it as the situation is far more dire than anticipated. In case it does nothing, markets will likely remain focused on oversupply.

Oil has a long road to recovery ahead before heading back above $75. First up is $67.11, which needs to see a daily close above at least. Once that level gets reclaimed, $70.00 gets back on the table with $71.46 as the first level to look out for. Ultimately, a return to $75.27 is still possible, but would likely come due to a seismic shift in current balances.

The next level further down the line is $64.38, the low from March and May 2023. Should that level face a second test and snap, $61.65 becomes a target, with of course $60.00 as a psychologically big figure just below it, at least tempting to be tested.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

Source: FXSTREET

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Cohen

Political

US presidential contender Donald Trump's plan to hike tariffs on imports if he is elected back to the White House in November would send cargo rates soaring and accelerate inflation, just like it did during his 2017-21 term, shipping and retail experts said.

Trump, who is running against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov 5 election, has floated second-term plans for blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% on virtually all imports as well as tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China, in a bid to boost US manufacturing.

In their debate on Tuesday, Harris called his proposal a "Trump sales tax" that will hurt working families, and has not released her own plan for tariffs. President Joe Biden has delayed implementing a proposed quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%, and a doubling of duties on semiconductors and solar cells to 50%. He had also proposed new 25% tariffs on lithium-ion batteries, steel and other goods.

"Trump's import tariffs are 'history repeating' and will cause a spike in ocean container shipping markets — with consumers picking up the cost," said Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping pricing platform Xeneta.

The National Retail Federation, which represents Walmart and other companies that account for almost half of container shipping volume, is among the industry groups opposed to Trump's proposed tariffs.

"Tariffs are a tax on imports, operating like a sales tax wearing a mediocre disguise," NRF said earlier this week, noting that they drive up cost of goods for consumers and hurt workers and businesses.

"We're the poster child of how tariffs did not keep domestic production in place," said Matt Priest, CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, pointing out that 99% of shoes are now imported.

"We will be out there engaging with policy members and discussing how tariffs are paid by American consumers."

Ocean container shipping market rates spiked more than 70% after the Trump Administration announced new tariffs in 2018. The off-contract spot rate to ship a 40-foot (12.19-metre) container on the busy trade route from China to the US West Coast jumped 75% to US$2,604 between Jan 1 and Nov 1 that year, Xeneta said.

The tariffs also disrupted supply chains as shippers fought for extra cargo space on vessels, trucks and trains, while the landed goods swamped ports and warehouses, leading to higher prices for everything from furniture and footwear to steel.

Ocean freight rates are already elevated due to ongoing Iran-backed Houthi attacks on ships near the Suez Canal trade shortcut. That pressure, combined with a recent surge in holiday goods and industrial material imports recently sent the cost to ferry a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York to US$10,000.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Bond Market’s Bet on a Half-point Fed Cut This Month is Over

Source: The edge markets

September 2024 BoE Preview: Waiting For November

Spotlight Shifts to ECB as US CPI Weakens Case for Fed Jumbo Rate Cut

Cooling US inflation fails to reach ideal target level

ECB likely to signal hawkish stance with rate cut

Implications on the euro and European stocks

Source: Euronews

Emerging Market Growth Decelerates in August While Price Pressures Ease

Emerging market growth lags developed markets again in August

India leads growth among major emerging market economies

Emerging market manufacturing sector conditions in focus

Selling price inflation at 15-month low

Gold Keeps Knocking at the Door of All-time-highs

Gold fell after US inflation data showed rise in core component

Technical Analysis: Gold makes multiple touches to top-of-range

Source: FXSTREET

Crude Oil Extends Rebound as Tropical Storm Francine Hits Louisiana

Oil news and market movers: Statistics add up

Oil Technical Analysis: Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

Source: FXSTREET

Trump's Plan to Hike Tariffs Would Spike Shipping Costs, Just Like in 2018, Experts Say

Source: Theedgemarkets

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