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When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?
Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Archrock Inc. (AROC).
Archrock Inc. currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.29, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by seven brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.29 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
Of the seven recommendations that derive the current ABR, five are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 71.4% and 28.6% of all recommendations.
Brokerage Recommendation Trends for AROC
The ABR suggests buying Archrock Inc., but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.
Are you wondering why? The vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover often results in a strong positive bias of their analysts in rating it. Our research shows that for every "Strong Sell" recommendation, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations.
In other words, their interests aren't always aligned with retail investors, rarely indicating where the price of a stock could actually be heading. Therefore, the best use of this information could be validating your own research or an indicator that has proven to be highly successful in predicting a stock's price movement.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near -term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks Rank
Although both Zacks Rank and ABR are displayed in a range of 1-5, they are different measures altogether.
The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.
Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.
On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.
Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.
Is AROC Worth Investing In?
In terms of earnings estimate revisions for Archrock Inc., the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $1.10.
Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Archrock Inc. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Archrock Inc.
Zacks Investment Research
Holding spots on the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) list, Archrock AROC and Monday.com MNDY are two stocks to consider after reporting their Q3 results on Monday.
As intriguing prospects among the energy and tech sectors, respectively, let’s review Archrock and Monday.com’s Q3 results to see why now is a good time to buy.
Archrock’s Natural Gas Services
Archrock’s expansion has become appealing among the Zacks Oil and Gas-Field Services Industry which is in the top 32% out of 250 Zacks industries.
Providing natural gas contract compression services, Archrock reached its Q3 earnings expectations of $0.28 a share. This was a pleasant increase from EPS of $0.20 in the prior-year quarter. On the top line, Q3 sales of $292.16 million rose 15% year over year despite slightly missing estimates of $292.95 million.
AROC has soared over +50% year to date but still trades under $25 and at a reasonable 22.1X forward earnings multiple. Archrock’s impressive YTD performance could continue as fiscal 2024 and FY25 EPS estimates have risen 6% and 9% in the last 30 days respectively.
Annual earnings are now projected to soar 59% this year and are slated to expand another 37% in FY25 to $1.50 per share. Reassuringly, total sales are projected to increase by over 15% in FY24 and FY25 with projections edging north of $1 billion.
Monday.com’s Software Applications
Allowing organizations to build software applications and work management tools, Monday.com has thrust itself into the conversation of up-and-coming tech stocks to consider.
Even better, Monday.com’s Zacks Internet-Software Industry is in the top 18% of all Zacks industries. Indicative of such, Monday.com was able to post Q3 EPS of $0.85 which crushed the Zacks Consensus of $0.61 by 39% and soared from $0.64 a share in the prior period. Q3 sales of $251 million beat estimates of $245.67 million and spiked 32% from $189.19 million a year ago.
Also benefitting from a positive trend of earnings estimate revisions, Monday.com's increased profability is being fueled by expectations of high double-digit top line growth in FY24 and FY25 .
Like Archrock, Monday.com’s annual sales are edging toward $1 billion with the company’s future earnings potential starting to compel investors.
To that point, MNDY is sitting on +40% gains in 2024 and has skyrocketed over +150% in the last two years. Seeing nice momentum, Monday.com has been one the best-performing IPOs in recent years with its stock up +50% since going public in June of 2021.
Bottom Line
As two top-performing stocks this year, Archrock and Monday.com are certainly worthy of consideration after posting impressive quarterly growth. With their earnings estimate revisions remaining higher, the rally in AROC and MNDY may continue.
Zacks Investment Research
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM, the U.S.-based oil and gas giant, has entered into an agreement to sell its older assets located in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. The company has not disclosed the buyer of the assets or the deal’s valuation. However, according to sources, the assets have been sold to a privately held energy company, Hilcorp Energy, for approximately $1 billion.
XOM Sells Permian Basin Assets to Hilcorp Energy
Per Reuters, ExxonMobil had previously auctioned these assets to shift its focus on shale drilling properties which offer higher growth and better returns. Hilcorp Energy emerged as the winner of the auction, buying these assets for approximately $1 billion. ExxonMobil stated that the transaction will likely be closed in the March quarter of 2025.
XOM's divestment involves conventional oil drilling assets in the Permian Basin. The company mentioned that these assets include conventional vertical wells, not horizontal ones. Vertical wells are typically less advanced than horizontal wells used in shale production.
XOM Maintains Focus on High-Growth Shale Properties
The company stated that the divestment aligns with its strategy to focus on investments that improve its portfolio by adding advantaged assets. ExxonMobil also mentioned that it has been continuously optimizing its portfolio to focus on its most profitable assets. The company follows a strategy of divesting its non-core assets and using the proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet.
Hilcorp Energy Expands Portfolio
The company specializes in buying older, mature assets from rival companies in the industry and is one of the most active buyers of such assets. Previously, the private firm acquired Eni’s assets offshore Alaska in a deal worth $1 billion. The U.S. oil and gas sector has recently witnessed a consolidation trend within the industry. Taking advantage of the favorable commodity price environment, many oil and gas majors have pursued large mergers, such as the $60 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources by ExxonMobil and the pending $53 billion all-stock merger between Hess and Chevron Corporation.
XOM’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks
Currently, XOM carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the energy sector are Archrock Inc. AROC, Smart Sand, Inc. SND and FuelCell Energy FCEL. Archrock presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while Smart Sand and FuelCell Energy carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Archrock is an energy infrastructure company based in the United States, with a focus on midstream natural gas compression. It provides natural gas contract compression services and generates stable fee-based revenues.
Smart Sand is a low-cost producer of high-quality Northern White frac sand, an ideal proppant for hydraulic fracturing and various industrial applications. The company provides proppant and other logistics services for several companies in the oil and gas industry. With sustained demand in the oil and gas market, SND is expected to see growing demand for its services, reflecting a positive outlook.
FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company offering low-carbon energy solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company designs fuel cells that generate electricity through an electrochemical process that combines fuel with air, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. As such, FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.
Zacks Investment Research
BP plc’s BP current efforts to scale back on its renewable projects' expansion shall not affect the offshore wind projects that the British energy major has undertaken with the German energy company EnBW, as per Reuters. In recent months, BP has been maintaining its focus on its high-margin business while scaling down the aggressive expansion of its renewables unit. The company had previously announced that it plans to sell off its U.S. onshore wind business and divest a small stake in its offshore wind business.
Overview of the Partnership
However, per EnBW, these decisions are not likely to affect BP’s partnership with the German energy firm. BP and EnBW forged a 50-50 partnership in 2021 to develop offshore wind projects in the UK. The companies have signed lease agreements for two 60-year leases that should enable them to develop offshore wind projects in the Irish Sea. Furthermore, they have signed an option agreement related to a lease in the UK North Sea.
The three projects, named Morven, Morgan and Mona, have the collective capacity to generate up to 5.9 gigawatts (GW) of power, enough to meet the needs of approximately 6 million households in the UK.
BP’s Scale-Back Unlikely to Affect JV’s Operations
EnBW mentioned that BP’s strategy to scale down its renewables business is global. The decision does not affect the JV’s plans. EnBW further mentioned that the JV is advancing with its projects, and the operations remain unaffected by BP’s decision to cut back on further investments in renewables.
BP’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks
Currently, BP carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Some better-ranked stocks in the energy sector are Archrock Inc. AROC, Smart Sand, Inc. SND and FuelCell Energy FCEL. Archrock presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while Smart Sand and FuelCell Energy carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Archrock is an energy infrastructure company based in the United States, with a focus on midstream natural gas compression. It provides natural gas contract compression services and generates stable fee-based revenues.
Smart Sand, Inc. is a low-cost producer of high-quality Northern White frac sand, an ideal proppant for hydraulic fracturing and various industrial applications. The company provides proppant and other logistics services for several companies in the oil and gas industry. With sustained demand in the oil and gas market, SND is expected to see growing demand for its services, reflecting a positive outlook.
FuelCell Energy is a clean energy company offering low-carbon energy solutions. It produces power using flexible fuel sources such as biogas, natural gas and hydrogen. The company designs fuel cells that generate electricity through an electrochemical process that combines fuel with air, reducing carbon emissions and minimizing the environmental impact of power generation. As such, FCEL is anticipated to play a crucial role in the energy transition by enabling industries and communities to shift from traditional fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives.
Zacks Investment Research
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