ChartWatch ASX Scans: Arovella Therapeutics, ANZ Group, Seven Group, REA, Zip Co, IDP Education, Paladin Energy, Viva Energy

Welcome back to the Insider Trades Series – A weekly summary of on-market ASX 200 director transactions valued at more than $10,000. The trades have all taken place between and 1 and 8 November 2024. Directors have up to 5 business days to notify the ASX of their trades.

Top ASX 200 Insider Buys

All the above transactions are from Non-Executive Directors except for APA Group.

APA's CEO Adam Watson purchased 10,000 shares last week, he beneficially owns approximately 147,000 shares. APA Group is a prominent Australian energy infrastructure company, primarily engaged in the ownership and operation of natural gas and electricity assets. The stock is trading around five-year lows and down 22% year-to-date amid high debt levels, environmental concerns and industry challenges. Earlier this month, Macquarie analysts reiterated an Outperform rating and $8.13 target price, citing "APA is on a yield of 8.3%, with management emphasis on at least maintaining the yield. Its FY1 EV/EBITDA of ~10.8x is well below the historical range of 11.8-13.3x and now global peers. Organic growth remains appealing."

Top ASX 200 Insider Sells

Three notable Board members have recently executed significant on-market selldowns.

• Siteminder: Non-Executive Director Paul Wilson (also Executive Director at Baliador Technology Investments, a major shareholder) executed his first-ever sale of company shares, divesting approximately 18% of his overall shareholding.

• Hub24: CEO Andrew Alcock continued his historical pattern of post-reporting season trades, with his first on-market sale since August 2023, when he sold $7.8 million worth of shares at $31.5 each. His trades typically occur around August reporting season and November.

• AUB Group: While CEO Michael Emmett's sale of $251,712 represents just 1.8% of his holdings, it marks his first on-market selldown at the insurance broking company, which has performed strongly with a 15% year-to-date gain.

Welcome to my ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans series. Here I present scan lists based on my trend following technical analysis methodology. My goal is to alert you to the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.

Uptrends Scan List

Today's Uptrends Scan List

Feature Charts from today's Uptrends List 🔎📈

The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess demand from today's Uptrends List are: Aristocrat Leisure , Altech Batteries , BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF , Brightstar Resources B, BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF , HMC Capital , Hub24 , Iperionx , Munro Global Growth Fund ETF M, National Australia Bank , Nanoveu N, Pinnacle Investment Management Group , SRG Global , Technology One , WCM Quality Global Growth Fund ETF , XRF Scientific , Xero .

Charts of each below:

Downtrends Scan List

Today's Downtrends Scan List

Feature Charts from today's Downtrends List 🔎📉

The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess supply from today's Downtrends List are: The A2 Milk Company , APA Group , BHP Group , Boss Energy , Coronado Global Resources , Droneshield , Deterra Royalties , Endeavour Group , Fortescue , Infomedia I, Iluka Resources , Monadelphous Group , Metcash , Monash IVF Group M, Patriot Battery Metals , Treasury Wine Estates , Viva Energy Group , Woolworths Group .

Charts of each below:

ChartWatch Primer

For a detailed explanation of Carl's technical analysis methodology, be sure to check out this ChartWatch Primer.

Important considerations when using the ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans:

1. The future is unknown. Anything can happen to change the trends in the lists above. A stock in a perfect uptrend or downtrend may not remain that way by the close of trading today. 2. These lists are not exhaustive, they are curated by Carl. You will find that certain stocks might not appear in a particular list on consecutive days but might reappear when Carl feels it deserves to return to the list. 3. This is not a recommendation service, merely an aid to help you better understand the workings of Carl’s technical analysis model in a practical way. Carl will not alert you to stocks that have dropped off a list because their trend has changed – it is up to you to apply the criteria to determine why a particular stock might not still be included. 4. This is general, educational information only – always do your own research.

European equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were moving higher late Monday morning, rising 0.35% to 1,339.76 on the S&P Europe Select ADR Index.

From continental Europe, the gainers were led by internet browser company Opera and pharmaceutical company Ascendis Pharma , which rose 4.8% and 3.3% respectively. They were followed by pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk and internet advertising firm Criteo , which were up 2.9% and 2% respectively.

The decliners from continental Europe were led by accommodations booking company trivago and biotech firm Evaxion Biotech , which fell 2.4% and 1.8% respectively. They were followed by medical device maker Edap and telecommunications operator Telefonica , which were down 1.7% and 1.6% respectively.

From the UK and Ireland, the gainers were led by biopharmaceutical companies NuCana and Akari Therapeutics , which climbed 6.3% and 5.2% respectively. They were followed by financial services company Barclays and software firm Endava , which increased 3.6% and 2.7% respectively.

The decliners from the UK and Ireland were led by biopharmaceutical company TC Biopharm and biotech firm Trinity Biotech , which lost 5.9% and 3.7% respectively. They were followed by mining company BHP Group and biopharmaceutical company Amarin , which were off 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 28.9 points lower, down 0.35%.

It was another day of very clearly delineated haves and have nots. “Have” sectors included those still basking in the warm afterglow of last week’s Trump + Red Sweep, plus those enjoying a continued but very modest dip in market yields in the USA on Friday.

“Have Not” sectors were generally those more exposed to Chinese economic growth as investors lamented China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee's failure to wield a bazooka of fresh fiscal stimulus measures at their meeting over the weekend.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Today in Review

Mon 11 Nov 24, 5:07pm (AEDT)

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 28.9 points lower at 8,266.2, 0.35% from its session high and 0.24% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 111 to 166.

It was another day of very clearly delineated haves and have nots. “Have” sectors included those still basking in the warm afterglow of last week’s Trump + Red Sweep (US earners and other strong US dollar beneficiaries), plus those enjoying a continued but very modest dip in market yields in the USA on Friday (high-PE / long duration earnings and consumer-related).

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.4%), Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.4%), Health Care (XHJ) (+0.70%), and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.41%) topped the Have winners list.

The best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors today

“Have Not” sectors were generally those more exposed to Chinese economic growth, like Resources (XJR) (-2.8%) and Energy (XEJ) (-0.67%), and Gold (XGD) (-0.53%). China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee meeting over the weekend did not produce the bazooka of fresh fiscal stimulus measures investors had built into Friday’s gains in these sectors. Who would have thunk it!? 🤔

This excerpt from a Citi note on the meeting says it all:

The RMB12trn implicit local-debt resolution is more decisive than expected, but its direct growth impact could be quite limited, saving local governments’ interest expenses <0.1% of GDP a year. We think the lack of pro-growth measures, especially consumer stimulus, was a disappointment to markets

– Citi, From: “China Economics: Fiscal Details Appear to Fall Short of Market Expectations Despite High Headline Number”, 10 November 2024

If there is a silver lining, Citi do go on to say about the disappointing NPC meeting it was not enough “to dismiss the ‘policy pivot’”. This suggests the broker still feels there exists the possibility the bazooka (or cap gun) could still be unleashed.

Iron ore stocks like BHP Group (-4.1%), Champion Iron (-9.8%), Fortescue (-7.3%), and Rio Tinto (-3.1%) came in for some special attention today, but falls were also otherwise democratically distributed across base and precious metals, uranium, energy and lithium – the prices of each were generally lower (to sharply lower) on Friday.

Elsewhere, a profit downgrade from Endeavour Group (-4.9%) surprised investors (or at least those investors who don’t read my ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans where it has been one of the most featured in the Downtrends lists for several months now). This dragged on Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-1.8%), making it the second worst performing major sector index.

The worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors today

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment October (6.2% September)

• 10:30 AUS NAB Business Confidence October (-2 September)

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS Wage Price Index September quarter (+0.9% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in June quarter)

Thursday

• 00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) October (+0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. in September)

• 10:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 11:30 AUS Employment change October (+25,200 jobs forecast vs +64,100 jobs in September), Unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1% in September)

Friday

• 00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index October (PPI) (+0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. in September)

• 07:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

• 12:30 CHN Data Dump:

  • New Home Prices m/m (-0.7% m/m previous)

  • Industrial Production y/y (+5.5% y/y forecast vs +5.4% y/y previous)

  • Retail Sales y/y (+3.8% y/y forecast vs +3.2% y/y previous)

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.5% ytd/y forecast vs +3.4% ytd/y previous)

  • Unemployment Rate (steady at 5.1%)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Core Retail Sales October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)

Latest News

Data Insights cxo gl1

Lithium prices have bottomed: These are the highest rated ASX lithium stocks

Mon 11 Nov 24, 1:35pm (AEDT)

Technical Analysis 360 all

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Life360, Aristocrat, Appen, Crypto Innovators ETF, Iperionx, JB Hi-Fi, Pointsbet, Polymetals, Tasmea, Titomic

Mon 11 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)

Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 and Dow mark best week this year, China stimulus disappoints

Mon 11 Nov 24, 8:41am (AEDT)

Market Wraps anz apx

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 can't do any wrong, first Trump, now falling yields and China stimulus hopes help stocks close in on record

Fri 08 Nov 24, 5:55pm (AEDT)

Data Insights bhp fmg

Is it time to bet on iron ore miners like Fortescue, BHP and Rio Tinto?

Fri 08 Nov 24, 11:35am (AEDT)

Technical Analysis amp anz

ChartWatch ASX Scans: Credit Corp, Computershare, Helia, Hansen Technologies, QBE, Titomic, Tryptamine Therapeutics, Xero, Droneshield

Fri 08 Nov 24, 9:00am (AEDT)

More News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, probably started as Trump-Red Sweep tech rally, add in

  The Australian article on Friday, equals a combination of speculative buying and at least some short covering in what was a horrific downtrend

• +12.5% Novonix (NVX) - NOVONIX and Stellantis Sign Binding Offtake Agreement

• +10.2% Pointsbet (PBH) - Response to Media Speculation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +9.8% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, but this AFR article from Nov 7 likely helped spark this latest rally (paywall), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +6.1% Appen (APX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - Mr Stuart Davis and Change of Director's Interest Notice - Ms Robin Low (participation in Share Purchase Plan), but also some Trump-Red Sweep tech rally, plus US earnings, plus rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +5.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news since 8 Nov First lithium hydroxide production at downstream plant, solid gain in benchmark lithium carbonate futures contract in China today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +4.7% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +4.0% HMC Capital (HMC) - Acquisition of iseek and DigiCo Platform Update and Acquisition of iseek Data Centre Platform, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +3.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Clarity and Nucleus RadioPharma sign MSA

• +3.4% SRG Global (SRG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

• +3.1% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for a few months now 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -32.8% Resolute Mining (RSG) - Company Statement regarding Mali (another sovereign risk casualty - Bullish on Gold? The case for bullion and gold ETFs over ASX gold stocks!)

• -11.3% Infomedia (IFM) - Revised Revenue Guidance Range, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -10.0% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, generally tough day for ASX gold stocks even without foreign government intervention in projects!

• -9.8% Champion Iron (CIA) - No news, generally tough day for ASX iron ore stocks on disappointment over lack of meaningful stimulus measures announced at weekend's China NPC meeting, lower iron ore price today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -9.1% Pantoro (PNR) - November 2024 Investor Presentation, but ditto tough day for gold stocks generally

• -8.7% Develop Global (DVP) - No news, ditto resources stocks struggling in general today on China stimulus disappointment, also LME metals prices generally sharply lower on Friday

• -7.9% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most featured charts in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -7.6% Clearview Wealth (CVW) - Continued negative response to Friday's 2024 AGM Addresses to Shareholders and proceedings and Thursday's Response to ASX Price Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -7.3% Fortescue (FMG) - Ditto lousy day for ASX iron ore stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -6.8% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -5.9% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -4.9% Endeavour Group (EDV) - F25 First Quarter Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most featured charts in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -4.3% Deterra Royalties (DRR) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder, ditto lousy day for ASX iron ore stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

• -4.1% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists for a few months now 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• Amaero International (3DA)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $74.00 from $59.00

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.25 from $25.00

  • Retained at underweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.50

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.80 from $27.50

  • Downgraded to reduce from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $25.29 from $26.13

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.50

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $32.00

• APA Group (APA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.13 from $8.23

• Avita Medical (AVH)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.60 from $3.60

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.56

• Credit Corp Group (CCP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.62 from $18.01

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $332.00 from $280.00

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $320.00

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.45

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $30.70 from $33.20

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.18

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Initiated at neutral at CICC; Price Target: $18.10

• GQG Partners (GQG)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.35

• IPH (IPH)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.40

• Incitec Pivot (IPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.10

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.70

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.50

• Lindsay Australia (LAU)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.15

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $52.00

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $50.00

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.50

• Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.40

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $258.00 from $239.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $249.00 from $245.00

  • Upgraded to underweight from sell at Jarden; Price Target: $181.00 from $177.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $210.00 from $204.00

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $240.00 from $225.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $268.00 from $263.00

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.40

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.50

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.90 from $27.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.50 from $26.50

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.70 from $7.00

Scans

Top Gainers

View all top gainers

Top Fallers

View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

View all RSI oversold

European equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were moving sharply lower late Friday morning, falling 1.5% to 1,333.73 on the S&P Europe Select ADR Index, which is down about 2.5% for the week.

From continental Europe, the gainers were led by 3D printer company Materialise and biotech firm BioNTech (BNTX), which rose 7.5% and 5.8% respectively. They were followed by biopharmaceutical companies Grifols and Cellectis (CLLS), which were up 1.1% each.

The decliners from continental Europe were led by medical device maker EDAP TMS (EDAP) and semiconductor company Sequans Communications , which dropped 6.6% and 4.3% respectively. They were followed by conglomerate Philips and biopharmaceutical company DBV Technologies , which were down 3.6% and 1.2% respectively.

From the UK and Ireland, the gainers were led by biopharmaceutical company Akari Therapeutics and hospitality company InterContinental Hotels Group , which advanced 3.6% and 2.1% respectively. They were followed by cruise line operator Carnival and biopharmaceutical company Mereo BioPharma Group , which increased 1.7% and 0.6% respectively.

The decliners from the UK and Ireland were led by biotech firm Autolus Therapeutics and biopharmaceutical company TC Biopharm , which dropped 6.1% and 6% respectively. They were followed by insurance company Prudential and mining company BHP Group , which lost 5% and 4.9% respectively.