Comex Gold Futures Approaching $2,900/oz on Strong Bullish Momentum, Chart Shows — Market Talk

Malaysian palm oil futures were above MYR 4,300 per tonne after briefly dipping to MYR 4,270 in the prior session.

Prices found support after top producer Indonesia introduced stricter cultivation permit rules to aid smallholder farmers, a move that could reduce output from major manufacturers and tighten supply.

Meanwhile, concerns over China’s retaliatory tariffs on US energy products, particularly LNG, fueled bets of higher demand for biodiesel alternatives, further boosting prices.

On the other hand, falling soybean oil prices prompted India, the largest importer, to shift toward alternative oils.

As a result, India’s palm oil imports tumbled 46% in January from the previous month, reaching a 14-year low of 272,000 tonnes.

In Europe, palm oil imports for the 2024-25 season, which began in July 2024, fell to 1.69 million tons from 2.14 million tons a year ago.

Additionally, some traders adopted cautious ahead of next week’s monthly data release from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Silver surged above $32 per ounce on Wednesday, hitting a three-month high as global trade and economic uncertainties fueled safe-haven demand for precious metals.

The metal also benefited from a sharp pullback in the dollar.

Earlier this week, the US delayed its planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month but proceeded with the imposition of 10% tariffs on China.

Beijing retaliated with its own tariffs on select US exports and targeted several US firms for potential sanctions.

On the supply side, the Silver Institute recently forecasted a fifth consecutive year of significant market deficits for silver in 2025, driven by robust industrial demand and strong retail investment.

These factors are expected to outweigh weaker consumption in jewelry and silverware.

Gold is mounting a notable bullish rally, fueled by market uncertainty, says Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone. Trade tensions following the U.S.'s imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, and delayed but looming tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products, have fueled a shift toward safe haven assets, he writes in a note. Although the USD index initially strengthened earlier in the week, posing a headwind for gold, its retracement helped revive buying interest in the precious metal. From a technical perspective, gold is testing resistance that could trigger some profit-taking but the broader trend remains supported by hedging activities amid an uncertainty, Assiri adds. He sees scope for new record peaks if the risk landscape persists. Gold has hit a series of record highs in recent days and was last around $2,857/oz. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

By Joe Hoppe

Gold demand hit a new record in 2024 driven by central banks and investors, according to a new report.

Total gold demand rose 1% on-year to an all-time high of 4,974.5 metric tons, the World Gold Council said Wednesday in a new report on gold-demand trends. The value of that demand soared to a record $382 billion, driven by record-high prices on geopolitical and economic uncertainty and investors seeking out safe-haven assets.

Gold demand was a record $111 billion in the fourth quarter. The healthy demand has persisted into the new year, helping continuous gold future prices hit a fresh record in late European trading on Tuesday of $2,877.10 a troy ounce. New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures are up around 8.9% in the year to date.

"Geopolitical uncertainty remains very high and that's always going to be a supportive element for investment--whether it's shifting from concerns of military conflict to uncertainties around trade conflicts," said Louise Street, senior markets analyst at the WGC.

Central-bank demand--and emerging-market-bank demand in particular--was the greatest driver behind the increase, with buying exceeding 1,000 metric tons of the precious metal for the third year in a row. On an annual basis, central-bank demand declined 1%, but purchases rocketed 54% on-year in the fourth quarter, to 332.9 tons.

Poland's central bank led purchases, adding 90 tons to its reserves, and central-bank demand is expected to stay high going into the new year, Street said.

"Geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high in 2025 and it seems as likely as ever that central banks will once again turn to gold as a stable strategic asset," the report said.

Gold investment also drove up demand, rising 25% on-year, to a four year high of 1,180 tons. Gold ETFs marked their first year since 2020 to avoid sizeable outflows, and in the fourth quarter, global gold-backed ETFs posted a second consecutive quarter of inflows--primarily driven by China and India in particular, Street said.

Investment in gold was concentrated in the second half of the year as falling interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and gold's continued strong price performance attracted inflows. Asian-listed funds led the charge, adding 78 tons of holdings over the year. North American funds added just 8 tons--though this was the first annual increase since 2020--while European funds saw outflows, albeit at a lower level on-year.

Looking ahead, tailwinds for gold ETFs, over-the-counter purchases and futures-based investment are likely given expectations for lower global interest rates, high-valued equities, a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical risks through trade conflicts, the WGC said.

On the other hand, gold demand for jewelry has fallen on year, driven by higher prices. Weakness was seen in every major region, with global demand falling 11%, driven by China and--to a lesser extent--India. Stripping out a coronavirus-pandemic-driven slump in 2020, gold-jewelry demand fell to its lowest level since 2009, the WGC said.

"If the gold price remains at current or higher levels, it could further erode jewelry demand, particularly as growth is also weak or slowing in all four major gold regions," the WGC said.

Elsewhere, technology demand also rose 7%, to 326 tons, mostly driven by strong demand in AI-related applications and some recovery in the consumer-electronic markets.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

India's gold consumption in 2025 is set to moderate from last year's nine-year peak, as a rally in prices to a record high is seen dampening jewellery demand, even as investment demand rises, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday.

Demand for gold could stand between 700 metric tons and 800 metric tons, compared to last year's 802.8 tons, which was the highest since 2015, Sachin Jain, CEO of WGC's Indian operations, told Reuters.

Historically, rising gold prices first affect jewellery customers, and if prices keep rising and remain volatile this year, jewellery demand will be impacted, Jain said.

Domestic gold prices hit a record high of 84,399 rupees ($968.62) per 10 grams on Wednesday. They have risen 10% so far in 2025 after rising more than 21% in 2024.

"Households that buy jewellery have a set budget, and when they purchase jewellery, their budget does not increase at the same rate as the rise in gold prices," Jain said.

However, the soaring gold prices, leading to effectively higher returns, are boosting investment demand, which will rise further in 2025 after surging 29% in 2024 to an 11-year high of 239.4 tons, he said.

Jewellery accounts for nearly 70% of India's total gold demand, while investment demand makes up the rest."It is anticipated that the trend of robust gold investment demand will continue, with retail investors showing growing interest in gold ETFs, digital gold, and coins and bars," Jain said.

By Myra P. Saefong

Central banks stretched their gold-buying streak to a 15th consecutive year in 2024, contributing to a rise in total demand for the precious metal to its highest annual level on record - with no sign of an end this year to their "hunger" for gold, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold purchases by central banks and other institutions reached 1,044.6 metric tons in 2024, the World Gold Council said in its latest Gold Demand Trends report released Wednesday.

That's down a bit from 1,050.8 metric tons in 2023, but buying topped 1,000 metric tons for a third year in a row - well above the 473-metric-ton annual average seen between 2010 and 2021.

Total gold demand in 2024, meanwhile, rose to 4,974.5 metric tons, up 1% from the year before, as annual investment in the metal climbed 25% year on year to reach a four-year high of 1,179.5 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council.

Read: Why there's 'incredible demand for physical gold' in New York markets

"As we continue through the first half of 2025, the gold market will be influenced by macroeconomic dynamics, particularly in the U.S.," Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist, Americas, at the World Gold Council told MarketWatch. "The new Trump administration adds uncertainty around monetary, fiscal and trade policies, each with significant implication for gold as a strategic asset."

Trade tariffs targeting China, Mexico and Canada would be expected to "increase inflation, which could weaken purchasing power and drive investors toward gold as a store of value," he said. The U.S. implemented on Tuesday an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China, and Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. that go into effect Feb. 10. But the Trump administration delayed planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico by a month.

Central banks, as well as exchange-traded-fund investors, are likely to drive gold demand this year, with economic uncertainty supporting gold's role as a risk hedge, the World Gold Council said. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for the past 15 years, "yet their hunger for gold shows no sign of being quelled."

Forecasting the level of demand for any specific central bank is "particularly difficult, given that it is often dictated by policy," the World Gold Council said.

'Geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high in 2025 and it seems as likely as ever that central banks will once again turn to gold as a stable strategic asset.'World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report

But "geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high in 2025 and it seems as likely as ever that central banks will once again turn to gold as a stable strategic asset," it said.

On Tuesday, gold for April delivery (GC00) (GCJ25) climbed $18.70, or nearly 0.7%, to settle at $2,875.80 an ounce on Comex, marking the highest most-active contract finish on record.

Read: Gold at $3,000 is 'within reach' as new era of U.S. trade policy rattles markets

-Myra P. Saefong

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