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Shares of CVR Energy, Inc. CVI experienced a gain of almost 4% since Icahn Enterprises (IEP), an investment firm controlled by billionaire investor Icahn, proposed to increase its stake in CVR Energy from its current 66% to around 81% on Nov. 8, 2024.
An Insight Into the Recent CVI Announcement
In its third-quarter earnings statement, reported on Nov. 8, IEP announced a 50% reduction in its dividend payout — from $1 per unit in Q2 to 50 cents in Q3 — to use the freed funds to increase its holding in CVI. The IEP plans to complete this procedure by purchasing up to 15 million additional shares for $17.50 per share, a 5.9% premium to Thursday’s close.
This decision came as a move to capitalize on the undervalued stock. IEP believes that the CVI stock has untapped potential despite recent challenges and that the shareholders could benefit from the premium cash-out.
CVI’s Struggles
Recently, CVI experienced instability and a significant decline in its stock price due to the suspension of its dividend payout for the third quarter. The move to suspend the dividend led to shareholders losing their confidence in the company and was viewed as a major setback by market analysts, but IEP considered it an investment opportunity, where it could increase its control over the company and decide its future strategies.
IEP’s Market Strategy Amid Legal Challenges
Recently, a short seller’s report challenged IEP’s valuation and dividend sustainability. Icahn, the holder of most of IEP’s shares, later dismissed the report as misleading, rebuilding shareholders' confidence in IEP’s financial standing.
Last year, Icahn Enterprises also faced some Securities and Exchange Commission charges over loan disclosure issues and, as a result, had to pay millions of dollars as a penalty. However, Icahn has continued to pursue bold investments in the market, including a major investment in Caesars Entertainment and a cooperation agreement with Southwest Gas.
CVI’s Zacks Rank and Key Picks
Headquartered in Sugar Land, TX, CVR Energy is an independent refiner and marketer of high-value transportation fuels. Currently, CVI has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Investors interested in the energy sector might look at some better-ranked stocks like Archrock, Inc. AROC, Kosmos Energy Ltd. KOS and Flotek Industries, Inc. FTK.While Archrock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Kosmos Energy and Flotek Industries each carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Archrock is a provider of natural gas contract compression services and a supplier of aftermarket services of compression equipment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AROC’s 2024 earnings indicates 59.42% year-over-year growth.
Hamilton-based Kosmos Energy Ltd. operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on underexplored regions in Africa. KOS’ expected EPS (earnings per share) growth rate for the next 5 years is 17.50%, which aligns favorably with the similar industry growth rate.
Flotek Industries develops and delivers prescriptive chemistry-based technology, including specialty chemicals, to clients in the energy, consumer industrials and food & beverage industries. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTK’s 2024 earnings indicates 125% year-over-year growth.
Zacks Investment Research
Archrock Inc. (AROC) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to earnings of $0.20 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
A quarter ago, it was expected that this natural gas compression services business would post earnings of $0.24 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.25, delivering a surprise of 4.17%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.
Archrock Inc., which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Field Services industry, posted revenues of $292.16 million for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.27%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $253.37 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Archrock Inc. Shares have added about 46.9% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 25.7%.
What's Next for Archrock Inc.
While Archrock Inc. Has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Archrock Inc. Favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.33 on $322.93 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.10 on $1.15 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Oil and Gas - Field Services is currently in the bottom 41% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
Drilling Tools International Corp. (DTI), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2024. The results are expected to be released on November 14.
This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -57.1%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
Drilling Tools International Corp.'s revenues are expected to be $41.7 million, up 9.3% from the year-ago quarter.
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