Dj Casey's General Stores Inc, Inst Holders, 3Q 2024 (Casy)

Kohl's Corporation KSS is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on Nov. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.8 billion, which indicates a 5.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter's actual. The consensus mark for quarterly earnings moved down by a penny in the last seven days to 27 cents per share, indicating a decline of 49.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. KSS has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 145.3%, on average.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Things to Know About KSS’ Upcoming Results

Kohl's continues to face significant challenges due to a tough macroeconomic environment. The company is experiencing pressure from cautious consumer spending, with customers becoming more selective, leading to lower sales despite a rise in transaction frequency. Underlying inflation is affecting purchasing power, especially among middle-income shoppers.

In addition, the ongoing weakness in Kohl’s digital business poses a threat to its performance. The persistence of these factors poses a threat to Kohl’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter, as the company navigates persistent pressures in the current retail environment.

Despite facing challenges, Kohl’s is benefiting from its successful partnership with Sephora. The company has also been prioritizing the growth of underdeveloped categories such as home décor, gifting and impulse items. The continuation of these positive trends is likely to have provided some respite in the fiscal third quarter.

Kohl's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kohl's Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kohl's Corporation Quote

Earnings Whispers for KSS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kohl's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

KSS has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -7.41%.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time.

Casey's General Stores CASY currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.22% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.05 billion, which implies a 0.5% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

However, CASY’s bottom line is anticipated to increase year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.28 per share, indicating 0.9% growth from the year-ago quarter. CASY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.8%, on average.

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2. ANF is likely to register growth in top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.18 billion, indicating an 11.8% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for ANF’s earnings is pegged at $2.32 per share, implying 26.8% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average.

Dollar Tree DLTR has an Earnings ESP of +2.80% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DLTR’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $7.45 billion, which indicates 1.9% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Dollar Tree’s quarterly earnings has risen by 1 cent over the past 30 days to $1.07 per share. The figure calls for growth of 10.3% from the year-ago quarter’s number. DLTR delivered an average negative earnings surprise of 10.9% in the trailing four quarters.

Zacks Investment Research

Guess?, Inc. GES is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Nov. 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $751 million, implying a 15.3% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 43 cents per share, though it indicates a 12.2% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. GES has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.7%, on average.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Factors Likely to Fuel GES’ Upcoming Results

Guess? has been benefiting from robust brand momentum globally and strong customer response to its collections across various product categories. The company has been focused on its core strategies, which include organization and culture, functional capacities, brand relevance with three main consumer groups (heritage, Millennials and Generation Z customers), customer focus, product brilliance and international footprint.

A strong global platform bodes well for the company’s Guess and Marciano businesses. Gains from the rag & bone acquisition (concluded in April 2024) are likely to contribute to third-quarter results. The company’s wholesale business also represents a significant growth driver, with strong performances in the European and American markets.

Guess?’s expansive global footprint, broad channel capabilities, extensive supply chain, diverse category portfolio and strong management team are likely to have acted as upsides in the quarter under review. For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the company expects revenue growth in the 14.5-16.5% band.

Guess?, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Guess?, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Guess?, Inc. Quote

Challenges Expected in GES’ Q3 Release

Guess? continues to operate in a dynamic shopping environment where consumers are increasingly selective and more sensitive to pricing and promotions. A volatile consumer landscape is likely to have impacted the upcoming results. High operating costs are a threat to Guess?. Management expects freight costs to be an added challenge for the gross margin in the second half of the year due to shipping issues from the Red Sea crisis. This is likely to have affected profits in the third quarter.

For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, the adjusted operating margin is likely to be between 4.7% and 5.8%, down from 8.9% recorded in the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter are forecasted in the range of 33-45 cents, suggesting a decline from the 49 cents reported in the year-ago period.

Earnings Whispers for GES

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Guess? this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Guess? carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time.

Casey's General Stores CASY currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.22% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.05 billion, which implies a 0.5% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

However, CASY’s bottom line is anticipated to increase year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.28 per share, indicating 0.9% growth from the year-ago quarter. Casey's General has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.8%, on average.

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2. ANF is likely to register bottom and top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.18 billion, indicating an 11.8% increase from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for ANF’s earnings is pegged at $2.32 per share, implying 26.8% growth from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Abercrombie & Fitch has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average.

Victoria's Secret & Co. VSCO currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VSCO’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.28 billion, which suggests 1.2% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The company is also likely to register a bottom-line improvement when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The consensus estimate for Victoria's Secret’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 66 cents per share, indicating a 1.2% improvement from the year-ago quarter. VSCO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, on average.

Zacks Investment Research

The retail sector is making solid efforts to bounce back from its earlier lows. Sales have increased over the past few months as price pressures eased following the Federal Reserve’s back-to-back rate cuts. Robust consumer spending is helping overall retail sales.

Also, the holiday season is approaching, and a shopping extravaganza is expected to boost overall retail sales. Given this positive outlook, investing in retail stocks would be a prudent choice.

We have selected four such stocks: Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, Tapestry, Inc. TPR, Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY and Abercrombie & Fitch ANF. These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 60 days. These stocks have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and assure good returns. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Black Friday, Cyber Monday Sales to Hit New Highs

Retailers who look forward to the all-important holiday sales to maximize their revenues can expect a robust Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Retail sales are projected to hit $75 billion for the first time during the Black Friday to Cyber Monday shopping window, up 5% year over year and ahead of the total holiday period sales growth of 3%, according to Bain.

Of the total holiday period sales, 8% will be generated between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the largest in the post-pandemic era.

The popularity of e-commerce has made Cyber Monday an important shopping day. Cyber Monday this year is also expected to be great, with online sales growing in October. The Commerce Department, in its sales report, said that online sales grew 0.3% last month.

Overall Retail Sales Grow

The retail sector suffered for most of 2022 and 2023 as consumers spent cautiously amid rising price pressures and higher borrowing rates. However, price pressures have eased substantially, with inflation declining sharply over the past few months.

Retail sales grew 0.4% sequentially in October, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a rise of 0.3%. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75 basis points since September after inflation declined substantially in the second and third quarters.

Lower borrowing costs have been helping consumers gain more purchasing power. Also, consumer spending has been robust. Consumer spending rose 0.5% month over month in September and 3.7% annually. A jump in retail sales and consumer spending bodes well for the sector ahead of the holiday season.

4 Retail Stocks With Upside

Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc.is one of the largest e-commerce providers, with sprawling operations in North America, now spreading across the globe. AMZN’s online retail business revolves around the Prime program well-supported by the company’s massive distribution network. Further, the Whole Foods Market acquisition helped Amazon establish a footprint in the physical grocery supermarket space. AMZN also enjoys a dominant position in the cloud-computing market, particularly in the Infrastructure as a Service space, thanks to Amazon Web Services.

Amazon.com has an expected earnings growth rate of 78.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 8.8% over the last 60 days. AMZN presently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Tapestry, Inc.

Tapestry, Inc. is the designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men in the United States and internationally. TPR offers lifestyle products, which include handbags, women’s and men’s accessories, footwear, jewelry, seasonal apparel collections, sunwear, travel bags, fragrance and watches.

Tapestry has an expected earnings growth rate of 6.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 2% over the last 60 days. TPR presently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Casey's General Stores

Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in 16 states, mainly Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. CASY offers a comprehensive range of products and services to meet the needs of its customers. In addition to fuel, the stores provide a wide variety of merchandise, including groceries, prepared food, snacks, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, school supplies, housewares, pet supplies and automotive supplies.

Casey’s has an expected earnings growth rate of 6% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 1.6% over the last 60 days. CASY currently has a Zacks Rank #2.

Abercrombie & Fitch

Abercrombie & Fitch operates as a specialty retailer of premium, high-quality casual apparel for men, women, and kids through a network of approximately 850 stores across North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. ANF's product portfolio includes knit and woven shirts, graphic T-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, outerwear, personal care products and accessories for men, women and kids, under the Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie kids and Hollister brands.

Abercrombie & Fitch’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 64.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 0.5% over the past 60 days. ANF currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Zacks Investment Research

Woodward, Inc WWD is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Nov. 25.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $806.8 million, which implies growth of 3.8% from the year-ago reported number. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.22 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 8.3%.

WWD’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 18.5%. Woodward’s shares have gained 30.5% compared with the sub-industry and the S&P 500 Index’s growth of 39% and 30.4%, respectively, in the year-to-date period.

Factors To Note Ahead of WWD’s Q4 Results

The company’s performance in the fiscal fourth quarter is likely to have been powered by growth in the Aerospace segment, indicating its strategic positioning coupled with operational excellence.

Momentum in commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket sales driven by increased passenger traffic, aircraft utilization and price realization is likely to have cushioned the Aerospace segment performance. Defense aftermarket sales are benefiting from supply-chain stabilization and higher output. Defense OEM sales are likely to have been affected by program delays in fixed and rotor wings. Higher guided vehicle sales are likely to have cushioned performance.

For fiscal 2024, Aerospace segment revenues are anticipated to increase in the range of 12-14%, unchanged from previous guidance. Despite supply-chain disruptions, management remains confident of achieving revenues within the guided range for the Aerospace segment.

The Industrial segment is anticipated to have benefited from increasing demand for power generation, notably in Asia, and the continued requirement for backup power for data centers. Higher power demand to support grid stability is another tailwind. Increasing demand for alternative fuels across the marine industry, as well as momentum in the global marine market brought on by higher utilization and rising shipbuilding rates, bode well.

Within oil and gas, higher global natural gas demand along with an encouraging outlook for domestic shale oil production as well as China and India’s refining and petrochemical activities are other growth drivers.

Woodward, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Woodward, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Woodward, Inc. Quote

Volatile China on-highway natural gas truck market, global macroeconomic weakness and rising costs are concerns. Weaker demand for heavy-duty trucks in China this quarter led to higher inventory levels at customers. This caused a decline in China on-highway orders for the fiscal fourth quarter. Sales for on-highway natural gas trucks in China were $55 million in the fiscal third quarter.

Management expects further decline in the fiscal fourth quarter, with sales in the range of $10 million to $15 million. Owing to lower China on-highway deliveries, management now expects Industrial segment revenues to increase in the band of 11-13% compared with the prior guided range of 13-15%.

We expect revenues from the Aerospace segment to be up 12.3% to $511 million and the Industrial segment to decline 8.4% to $295.3 million for the fiscal fourth quarter.

For fiscal 2024, we expect revenues from the Aerospace and Industrial segments to be up 12.4% and 12.5%, respectively.

WWD's Recent Development

In November 2024, Woodward inked a definitive agreement to sell its heavy-duty gas turbines combustion parts business, based in Greenville, SC, to GE Vernova. The deal marks a significant development in the energy and aerospace sectors, aiming to bolster GE Vernova’s operational capabilities while enabling Woodward to focus on its core growth areas.

While the transaction's financial terms have not been disclosed, Woodward has determined that the deal is not financially material to its operations. By focusing on its core competencies, the company aims to position itself as a stronger player in aerospace and industrial energy control solutions.

What Our Model Says About WWD

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for WWD this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

WWD has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some stocks you may consider, as our proven model shows that these have the right mix of elements to beat estimates this time around.

Torrid Holdings Inc. CURV is set to release quarterly numbers on Dec 3. It has an Earnings ESP of +23.08% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CURV’s to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at 3 cents per share and $282.8 million, respectively. Shares of CURV have gained 2.1% in the past year.

Rubrik, Inc. RBRK presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.42% and a Zacks Rank #2. RBRK is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Dec. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rubrik’s to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 40 cents per share. The same for revenues is pegged at $217.6 million, respectively. Shares of RBRK have gained 32.7% in the past year.

Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY has an Earnings ESP of +5.22% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. CASY is scheduled to report quarterly figures on Dec. 9. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $4.28 per share and $4.05 billion, respectively. Shares of CASY have increased 46.3% in the past year.

Zacks Investment Research

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 22, 2024 – Zacks.com announces the list of Stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN, Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY and Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR.

Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

4 Retail Stocks Primed to Beast Earnings Estimates This Season

As investors await upcoming earnings reports, the performance of key players within the Retail-Wholesale sector could impact market sentiment in the coming weeks. This reporting cycle provides valuable insight into sector performance, with expectations for a potential uptick in both sales and earnings. These results are likely to be influenced by prevailing consumer sentiment, spending trends and the ongoing challenge of managing operational costs.

Per the latest Zacks Earnings Outlook, the sector is anticipated to witness top-line growth of 5.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2024. This follows a 4.4% increase in the preceding season. Meanwhile, the bottom line is expected to increase 12% this earnings season. The sector registered earnings growth of 16.1% in the previous reporting cycle.

With earnings season on its last leg, it is worth investing in companies with earnings beat potential. We have identified four stocks — Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Urban Outfitters, Inc., Casey's General Stores, Inc. and Dollar Tree, Inc. — that are poised to trump earnings estimates this season.

See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

Key Factors Likely to Influence Retail Earnings

Retail earnings this season are poised to reflect evolving consumer preferences, which have increasingly shifted toward essentials and value-based products amid underlying inflationary pressures. Retailers focusing on competitive pricing and product diversification, particularly in areas like groceries and home essentials, may have experienced higher foot traffic and better conversion rates. However, discretionary categories such as apparel and electronics could have faced headwinds as consumers prioritize necessities.

Persistent inflation, while moderating, continues to weigh on consumer budgets and retailers’ cost structures. Retailers implementing strategic pricing, including promotions and private label expansions, are better positioned to maintain their market share without significantly eroding margins. Those with robust supply-chain management and the ability to pass on incremental costs to consumers are likely to see resilient earnings.

The sustained growth of e-commerce and the integration of omnichannel capabilities remain pivotal for retail success. Companies investing in seamless online shopping experiences, coupled with efficient last-mile delivery, are attracting a broader customer base. The fusion of physical and digital channels — such as click-and-collect options and curbside pickups —offers a competitive edge, particularly as consumers seek convenience and flexibility.

Efficient inventory management will be a critical determinant of retail profitability this earnings season. Retailers grappling with excess inventory from prior seasons may face margin pressures due to markdowns. Conversely, those leveraging advanced analytics and demand forecasting to optimize stock levels are better equipped to meet consumer demand while safeguarding profit margins.

4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Abercrombie & Fitch: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +4.59%

Abercrombie & Fitch stands out as a strong investment choice. The company excels in integrating digital and physical retail channels, offering a seamless shopping experience and driving higher customer satisfaction and loyalty. Strategic marketing initiatives, particularly targeted campaigns in key markets, have been effective in boosting brand visibility and customer acquisition.

The introduction of innovative product lines meets specific customer needs and broadens the brand's appeal. Abercrombie & Fitch’s regional operating model, with a focus on the Americas, the EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) and the APAC (Asia-Pacific), provides a solid foundation for global expansion.

Investors can count on Abercrombie & Fitch with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +4.59%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $2.32 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 26.8% from the year-ago period. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 26 before the opening bell. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Abercrombie & Fitch Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Quote

Urban Outfitters: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +8.17%

You may consider Urban Outfitters. The company's growth is fueled by its multi-brand approach featuring Anthropologie and Free People, allowing it to navigate a challenging retail landscape. Its success in the expansion of the Nuuly subscription rental service reflects its ability to adapt to evolving consumer demands, particularly for sustainable fashion solutions. Urban Outfitters’ focus on omnichannel integration enhances customer engagement and spending.

Urban Outfitters has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +8.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has risen by a penny to 84 cents in the past seven days but still implies a decline of 4.6% from the year-ago period. URBN has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.6%, on average. The company is slated to report financial numbers on Nov. 26 after the closing bell.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Urban Outfitters, Inc. Quote

Casey's General Stores: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +5.22%

Casey's also deserves a mention. The company continues to distinguish itself in the convenience store sector through robust operational strategies that bolster its market position and financial performance. A resilient business operating model, stellar omnichannel capabilities, expanded customer outreach and exclusive private-label offerings strengthen Casey's competitive position. Through a strategic blend of organic growth and targeted acquisitions, Casey's is aggressively expanding its footprint.

CASY has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +5.22%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has risen by 1.2% to $4.28 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 0.9% from the year-ago period. Casey's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.8%, on average. The company is scheduled to report financial numbers on Dec. 9 after the market closes.

Casey's General Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Casey's General Stores, Inc. Quote

Dollar Tree: Zacks Rank #3 & Earnings ESP of +2.80%

Dollar Tree is worth betting on. The company’s strategic initiatives, including its multi-price expansion, footprint growth, private brand development and supply-chain modernization, position the company for success. DLTR remains confident in its ability to deliver value to customers and drive market share growth. With a strong financial foundation, an expanding customer base and a differentiated business model, Dollar Tree is well-positioned to navigate the evolving retail landscape and continue to generate value for investors.

Dollar Tree has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.80%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.07 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 10.3% from the year-ago period. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Dec. 4 before the stock market opens.

Dollar Tree, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Dollar Tree, Inc. Quote

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Zacks Investment Research

As investors await upcoming earnings reports, the performance of key players within the Retail-Wholesale sector could impact market sentiment in the coming weeks. This reporting cycle provides valuable insight into sector performance, with expectations for a potential uptick in both sales and earnings. These results are likely to be influenced by prevailing consumer sentiment, spending trends and the ongoing challenge of managing operational costs.

Per the latest Zacks Earnings Outlook, the sector is anticipated to witness top-line growth of 5.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2024. This follows a 4.4% increase in the preceding season. Meanwhile, the bottom line is expected to increase 12% this earnings season. The sector registered earnings growth of 16.1% in the previous reporting cycle.

With earnings season on its last leg, it is worth investing in companies with earnings beat potential. We have identified four stocks — Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN, Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY and Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR — that are poised to trump earnings estimates this season.

See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

Key Factors Likely to Influence Retail Earnings

Retail earnings this season are poised to reflect evolving consumer preferences, which have increasingly shifted toward essentials and value-based products amid underlying inflationary pressures. Retailers focusing on competitive pricing and product diversification, particularly in areas like groceries and home essentials, may have experienced higher foot traffic and better conversion rates. However, discretionary categories such as apparel and electronics could have faced headwinds as consumers prioritize necessities.

Persistent inflation, while moderating, continues to weigh on consumer budgets and retailers’ cost structures. Retailers implementing strategic pricing, including promotions and private label expansions, are better positioned to maintain their market share without significantly eroding margins. Those with robust supply-chain management and the ability to pass on incremental costs to consumers are likely to see resilient earnings.

The sustained growth of e-commerce and the integration of omnichannel capabilities remain pivotal for retail success. Companies investing in seamless online shopping experiences, coupled with efficient last-mile delivery, are attracting a broader customer base. The fusion of physical and digital channels — such as click-and-collect options and curbside pickups —offers a competitive edge, particularly as consumers seek convenience and flexibility.

Efficient inventory management will be a critical determinant of retail profitability this earnings season. Retailers grappling with excess inventory from prior seasons may face margin pressures due to markdowns. Conversely, those leveraging advanced analytics and demand forecasting to optimize stock levels are better equipped to meet consumer demand while safeguarding profit margins.

4 Retail Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), the chance of a positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Abercrombie & Fitch: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +4.59%

Abercrombie & Fitch stands out as a strong investment choice. The company excels in integrating digital and physical retail channels, offering a seamless shopping experience and driving higher customer satisfaction and loyalty. Strategic marketing initiatives, particularly targeted campaigns in key markets, have been effective in boosting brand visibility and customer acquisition. The introduction of innovative product lines meets specific customer needs and broadens the brand's appeal. Abercrombie & Fitch’s regional operating model, with a focus on the Americas, the EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) and the APAC (Asia-Pacific), provides a solid foundation for global expansion.

Investors can count on Abercrombie & Fitch with a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +4.59%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $2.32 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 26.8% from the year-ago period. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average. The company will report numbers on Nov. 26 before the opening bell. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Abercrombie & Fitch Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Abercrombie & Fitch Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Quote

Urban Outfitters: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +8.17%

You may consider Urban Outfitters. The company's growth is fueled by its multi-brand approach featuring Anthropologie and Free People, allowing it to navigate a challenging retail landscape. Its success in the expansion of the Nuuly subscription rental service reflects its ability to adapt to evolving consumer demands, particularly for sustainable fashion solutions. Urban Outfitters’ focus on omnichannel integration enhances customer engagement and spending.

Urban Outfitters has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +8.17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has risen by a penny to 84 cents in the past seven days but still implies a decline of 4.6% from the year-ago period. URBN has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.6%, on average. The company is slated to report financial numbers on Nov. 26 after the closing bell.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Urban Outfitters, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Urban Outfitters, Inc. Quote

Casey's General Stores: Zacks Rank #2 & Earnings ESP of +5.22%

Casey's also deserves a mention. The company continues to distinguish itself in the convenience store sector through robust operational strategies that bolster its market position and financial performance. A resilient business operating model, stellar omnichannel capabilities, expanded customer outreach and exclusive private-label offerings strengthen Casey's competitive position. Through a strategic blend of organic growth and targeted acquisitions, Casey's is aggressively expanding its footprint.

CASY has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +5.22%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share has risen by 1.2% to $4.28 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate implies an increase of 0.9% from the year-ago period. Casey's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.8%, on average. The company is scheduled to report financial numbers on Dec. 9 after the market closes.

Casey's General Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Casey's General Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Casey's General Stores, Inc. Quote

Dollar Tree: Zacks Rank #3 & Earnings ESP of +2.80%

Dollar Tree is worth betting on. The company’s strategic initiatives, including its multi-price expansion, footprint growth, private brand development and supply-chain modernization, position the company for success. DLTR remains confident in its ability to deliver value to customers and drive market share growth. With a strong financial foundation, an expanding customer base and a differentiated business model, Dollar Tree is well-positioned to navigate the evolving retail landscape and continue to generate value for investors.

Dollar Tree has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.80%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.07 in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests an increase of 10.3% from the year-ago period. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Dec. 4 before the stock market opens.

Dollar Tree, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Dollar Tree, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Dollar Tree, Inc. Quote

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