Dj Cf Industries Holdings Inc. Stock Falls Monday, Still Outperforms Market

Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries Holdings, Inc. focuses on producing and selling ammonia and ammonia-derived fertilizers which provide energy to crops to increase yields. Valued at $14.8 billion by market cap, CF Industries operates nine worldscale manufacturing complexes in North America and internationally.

Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” CF Industries fits this bill perfectly. Given its decades long history and extensive business, CF’s valuation above this mark is unsurprising. Its manufacturing complexes are among the most cost-advantaged, efficient and flexible in the world and the company has an unparalleled storage, transportation and distribution network in North America.

The stock recently touched its 2-year high of $94.46 on Dec. 4 and is now trading 10% below that peak. CF stock has gained 5.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average’s ($DOWI) 1.9% gains during the same time frame.

However, over the longer-term, CF has underperformed the Dow. CF stock has gained 6.9% on a YTD basis and 9.3% over the past 52 weeks, compared to DOWI’s 13.7% surge in 2024 and 15.5% returns over the past year.

To confirm the overall bullish trend and the recent downturn, CF has traded mostly above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages since early August with slight fluctuations before falling below its 50-day moving average in the past week.

CF Industries stock observed marginal gains and maintained a positive momentum for the next three trading sessions after the release of its impressive Q3 earnings on Oct. 30. Driven by the favorable market conditions, CF observed notable pricing gains and topline growth in its UAN and Ammonia segments along with margin expansion. Its total net sales surged 7.6% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations. Meanwhile, its gross margin expanded 279 basis points compared to the year-ago quarter to 32.4%, resulting in a 17.8% growth in gross profits to $444 million.

The company also reduced its operating and non-operating expenses which led to a massive 68.3% year-over-year growth in net earnings to shareholders, reaching $276 million and its EPS of $1.55 surpassed analysts’ estimates by a staggering 47.6%.

CF Industries has substantially outpaced its peer The Mosaic Company’s 32.6% decline in 2024 and 33.1% drop over the past 52 weeks.

Among the 15 analysts covering the CF stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” Its mean price target of $89.91 represents a 5.8% premium to current price levels.

On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Nucor Corporation NUE expects fourth-quarter 2024 earnings to be between 55 and 65 cents per share. Nucor reported earnings of $1.05 per share in the prior quarter and $3.16 per share for fourth-quarter 2023.

Losses and asset impairments for the third quarter of 2024 include non-cash charges of $83 million, or 27 cents per share and $40 million, or 17 cents per share, for the impairment of certain non-current assets in the raw materials and steel products segments, respectively.

The primary reason for the predicted decline in profitability in the quarter is the steel mills segment's lower earnings due to lower volumes and average selling prices. The company expects profitability in the steel products segment to fall in the fourth quarter from the third quarter of 2024, owing to reduced volumes and average selling prices. The raw materials segment's earnings are predicted to rise sequentially.

During the fourth quarter, Nucor repurchased roughly 2.1 million shares at an average price of $149.81 per share. NUE has returned more than $2.73 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments so far this year.

Shares of Nucor have lost 32% in a year compared with the industry’s 27.9% decline.

NUE’s Rank & Key Picks

NUE currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, New Gold Inc. NGD and CF Industries Inc. CF.

Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 14.1%. The company's shares have soared 149.4% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

New Gold, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. In this time frame, it has delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 37.5%, on average. NGD’s shares have gained 75% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s current-year earnings is pegged at $6.35. CF, a Zacks Rank #1 stock, beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 10.3%. CF has rallied around 10.7% in the past year.

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Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD expects earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be $1.26 to $1.30 per share. It reported earnings $2.05 per share for the third quarter and $2.60 for fourth-quarter 2023.

The company's steel operations are expected to see significantly lower fourth-quarter profitability than the third quarter due to lower average realized pricing, seasonally lower shipments and an unplanned outage at the company's Butler Flat Roll Division that further reduced volume by an estimated 50,000 tons. Flat-rolled steel prices have become stable and underlying steel demand in the principal steel-consuming sectors is seasonally flat, as shown by strong customer order activity. Customers are optimistic about the outlook for 2025.

Based on consistent ferrous volume and constant average realized pricing, the company's metals recycling activities are predicted to generate much higher earnings in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.

Earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are likely to be lower in the fourth quarter of 2024 from the prior quarter, owing to seasonally reduced shipments and a less than 5% reduction in average realized pricing. The order backlog is steady, stretching into the first half of 2025 at attractive pricing levels. Current order activity is stable, with expectations for increased volumes in 2025 as interest rates fall. Support from the U.S. infrastructure program and onshoring is expected to boost demand for steel joist and deck products, as well as flat-rolled and long-product steel.

The company repurchased $250 million, or little more than 1%, of its common shares during the fourth quarter through Dec. 10, 2024, based on ongoing confidence in its cash flow generation and earnings projections.

Shares of Steel Dynamics have lost 0.3% in the past year compared with the industry’s 26.4% decline.

STLD’s Rank & Key Picks

STLD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Ingevity Corporation NGVT and CF Industries Inc. CF.

Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 14.1%. The company's shares have soared 161.6% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ingevity, a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. In this time frame, it has delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 95.4%, on average. The consensus estimate for NGVT’s current year earnings has increased 15.9% in the past 60 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s current-year earnings is pegged at $6.32 per share. CF, a Zacks Rank #1 stock, beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missed twice, with the average earnings surprise being 10.3%. CF has rallied around 18.2% in the past year.

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