Dj Chubb Ltd. Stock Rises Thursday, Outperforms Market

Chubb (CB) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.

The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.

Individual investors often find it hard to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, since these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time. In these situations, the Zacks rating system comes in handy because of the power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements.

Therefore, the Zacks rating upgrade for Chubb basically reflects positivity about its earnings outlook that could translate into buying pressure and an increase in its stock price.

Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices

The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, has proven to be strongly correlated with the near-term price movement of its stock. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.

For Chubb, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.

Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.

The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Earnings Estimate Revisions for Chubb

This insurer is expected to earn $21.66 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, which represents a year-over-year change of -3.9%.

Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Chubb. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 2.3%.

Bottom Line

Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.

The upgrade of Chubb to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.

Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is likely to benefit from better pricing, prudent underwriting and exposure growth. Industry players like The Progressive Corporation PGR, Chubb Limited CB, The Travelers Companies TRV, The Allstate Corporation ALL and Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF are poised to grow despite a rise in catastrophic activities. Given an active catastrophe environment, the policy renewal rate should accelerate. Also, the increasing adoption of technology and the emergence of insurtech will help the industry players function smoothly.

However, the third quarter of 2024 witnessed a decline in pricing after more than seven years of rate rise. Also, the two interest rate cuts and the possibility of more later remain concerns as insurers are direct beneficiaries of an improved rate environment. Nonetheless, an improvement in surplus and accelerated economic activities set the stage for a better M&A environment. Per a report in Carrier Management, AM Best expects profitable commercial lines and improving personal lines, coupled with higher investment returns on increased yields and strong cash flow, to drive the industry’s performance in 2024.

About the Industry

The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry comprises companies that provide commercial and personal property insurance, and casualty insurance products and services. Such insurance helps to safeguard property in case of any natural or man-made disasters. Liability coverages are also provided by some industry players. The insurance coverage offered also includes automobiles, professional risk, marine, excess casualty, aviation, personal accident, commercial multi-peril, and professional indemnity and surety. Premiums are the primary source of revenues for these insurers. Better pricing and increased exposure drive premiums. These companies invest a portion of premiums to meet their commitments to policyholders. However, a likely interest rate cut in September and prospects of more later in the year raise concerns.

4 Trends Shaping the Future of the Property and Casualty Insurance Industry

Better pricing to help navigate claims: Catastrophes are a concern for insurers due to the high degree of losses incurred. Insurers implement price hikes to ensure uninterrupted claims payment. Global commercial insurance prices declined for the first time in seven years in the third quarter of 2024, attributable to heightened competition among insurers in the global property market, per Marsh Global Insurance Market Index. Per Fitch Ratings, personal auto is likely to deliver better performance in 2024. Per Deloitte Insights, gross premiums are estimated to increase sixfold to $722 billion by 2030. China and North America should account for more than two-thirds of the global market, per the report. Analysts at Swiss Re Institute predict premiums to grow 7% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

Catastrophe loss induces volatility in underwriting profits: The property and casualty insurance industry is susceptible to catastrophe events, which drag down underwriting profits. Per a Colorado State University (CSU) report, 2024 will have a very active hurricane season. While AccuWeather estimates Hurricane Helene to induce $225 to $250 billion in economic loss and damage in the United States, it estimates $160 to $180 billion in economic loss from Hurricane Milton. AM Best estimates cat loss to contribute 680 basis points to the expected combined ratio of 100.7 in 2024. Swiss Re estimates the combined ratio to improve from 2023 to 98.5% in 2024 and 2025. Underwriting profitability is expected to be under pressure, primarily due to soft performance in personal lines, which are expected to witness higher catastrophe losses per Insurance Information Institute and Milliman. Nonetheless, they expect profitability in 2025. Exposure growth, better pricing, prudent underwriting and favorable reserve development will help withstand the blow. Also, frequent occurrences of natural disasters should accelerate the policy renewal rate.

Merger and acquisitions: Consolidation in the property and casualty industry is likely to continue as players look to diversify their operations into new business lines and geography. Buying businesses along the same lines will also continue as players look to gain market share and grow in their niche areas. With a sturdy capital level, the industry is witnessing a number of mergers, acquisitions and consolidations. Deloitte estimates more mergers and acquisitions in the reinsurance space in 2024.

Increased adoption of technology: The industry is witnessing increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation that expedite business operations and save costs. The industry has also witnessed the emergence of insurtechs or technology-led insurers. The focus of insurtech is mainly on the property and casualty insurance industry. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology, generative AI in particular, as it is expected to improve basis points, scale and efficiencies. However, the use of technology poses cyber threats.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright Prospects

The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates rosy prospects in the near term. The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks Finance sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #40, which places it in the top 16% of more than 250 Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Earnings estimates for the current year have increased 10.2% year over year.

Before we present a few property and casualty stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Outperforms Sector and the S&P 500

The Property and Casualty Insurance industry has performed better than its sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite year to date. The stocks in this industry have collectively risen 30.7% compared with the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 26% and the sector’s increase of 21.7%.

Year to Date Price Performance

Current Valuation

On the basis of the trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B), which is commonly used for valuing insurance stocks, the industry is currently trading at 1.5X compared with the S&P 500’s 8.66X and the sector’s 3.82X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 1.67X, as low as 0.96X and at the median of 1.38X.

Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio (TTM)

Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio (TTM)

5 Property and Casualty Insurance Stocks to Focus On

Here, we are discussing four Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stocks and one Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock from the P&C Insurance industry. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Allstate: Headquartered in Northbrook, IL, Allstate is the third-largest property-casualty (P&C) insurer and the largest publicly-held personal lines carrier in the United States. Its premiums are poised to improve courtesy of rate increases in auto and home insurance businesses as well as an enhanced distribution strategy. The company keeps expanding its Protection Services business with strategic acquisitions, which position it for long-term growth. Divestments and cost-cutting measures are expected to enhance margins of this Zacks Rank #2 insurer.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 1,586% and 19% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 has moved up 5.7% and 2.8%, respectively, in the past seven days. The company delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 135.21%. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 7%. It has a VGM Score of A.

Price and Consensus: ALL

Travelers Companies: Based in New York, NY, Travelers Companies is one of the leading writers of auto and homeowners’ insurance plus commercial U.S. property-casualty insurance. High levels of retention, improved pricing, increased new business and a positive renewal premium change, banking on the strength of a compelling product portfolio of coverages across nine lines of business, poise it well for growth. Travelers’ commercial businesses should continue to perform well on the back of stability in the markets where it operates as well as the execution of its strategies. It carries a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TRV’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 42% and 9.5% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 has moved up 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively, in the past seven days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 25.40%. It has a VGM Score of A. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 11.2%

Price and Consensus: TRV

Progressive Corporation: Based in Mayfield Village, OH, The Progressive Corporation is one of the major auto insurers in the country. It is the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. A solid market presence, a convincing portfolio of products and services, and underwriting and operational expertise should help this insurer deliver steady profitability. It carries a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 115.2% and 4.6.% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 2.9% and 0.9% north, respectively, in the past 30 days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 19.85%. It has a VGM Score of B. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 27.5%, better than the industry average of 11.3%.

Price and Consensus: PGR

Chubb Limited: Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, Chubb is one of the world’s largest providers of property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and the largest publicly traded P&C insurer based on market capitalization. Chubb is poised for long-term growth as it capitalizes on the potential of middle-market businesses (both domestic and international) as well as enhances traditional core packages and specialty products. Investments in various strategic initiatives bode well for growth. It focuses on cyber insurance, which has immense room for growth. This Zacks Rank #2 insurer has increased dividends for 31 straight years.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB’s 2025 earnings suggests 6.8% year-over-year growth. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 2%. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 1.6% and 0.5% north, respectively, in the past 30 days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 22.19%. It has a VGM Score of B.

Price and Consensus: CB

Cincinnati Financial: Headquarters in Fairfield, OH, Cincinnati Financial markets property and casualty insurance. Prudent pricing, an agent-centric model, a higher level of insured exposures and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re should benefit premiums. This Zacks Rank #3 boasts above-average industry premium growth. The board of directors had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 64 consecutive years, a record which is believed to be matched by only seven other U.S. publicly traded companies.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 5.3% and 13.01% year-over-year growth, respectively. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 8.3%. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 12.54%.

Price and Consensus: CINF

Zacks Investment Research