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The Gap, Inc. GAP is expected to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on March 6, after the closing bell.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share, suggesting a 26.5% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $4.1 billion, indicating a 5.4% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The San Francisco, CA-based company has been reporting steady earnings outcomes, as evident from its positive top and bottom-line surprise trends in the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 28.6%. GAP has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 101.2%, on average. Given its positive record, the question is whether the stock can maintain its momentum.
Earnings Whispers for GAP
Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Gap this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Gap currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.55% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What to Expect From GAP’s Q4 Earnings: Key Trends
GAP’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results are expected to reflect its ability to gain market share and revive its brand position. Management has been committed to creating a trend-right merchandise assortment, deepening relations with customers via marketing, enhancing the digital commerce agenda and efficiently controlling expenses. Gains from these actions are expected to have bolstered the company’s performance in fourth-quarter fiscal 2024.
Fueled by optimism around its holiday collection, Gap raised its fiscal 2024 outlook. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, the company prioritized enhanced experiences for online and in-store shoppers by refreshing product imagery on its website and remodeling 15% of its stores. Gap was committed to executing with excellence in the fiscal fourth quarter.
Strong performances in the fiscal third quarter and the early fourth quarter positioned the company well for the holiday season. This has bolstered its confidence to raise its fiscal 2024 outlook for sales, gross margin and operating income growth. As a result, management forecast sales growth of 1.5-2% on a 52-week basis for fiscal 2024, implying fourth-quarter net sales growth of 1-2%.
The company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 performance is expected to have gained from improved margins, driven by lower airfreight and increased promotional activity. Lower advertising expenses and technology investments from cost-saving actions bode well. The company has been aggressively undertaking cost-management actions, which are expected to have improved its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Gap, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
The Gap, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Gap, Inc. Quote
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, Gap anticipated the gross margin to expand at least 220 basis points (bps) year over year for fiscal 2024, including 100 bps of commodity cost gains realized in the first half of the fiscal year. This improvement was driven by commodity cost tailwinds in the first half of fiscal 2024, improved inventory management and relatively neutral ROD. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2024, the gross margin is expected to have been consistent with last year. Operating income for fiscal 2024 is projected to increase year over year in the mid-to-high 60%. This represents substantial progress toward restoring historical operating profit levels.
We expect the adjusted gross margin to expand 210 basis points for fiscal 2024. Our model projects adjusted operating income to surge 69.1% year over year in fiscal 2024, with an operating margin of 6.8%. Our model predicts year-over-year adjusted operating expenses to decline 7.1% for the fourth quarter and 1.1% in fiscal 2024.
Gap has been navigating an uncertain macroeconomic environment, including inflationary pressures and other challenges, which are expected to have impacted its top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. A decline in consumer confidence — a key economic indicator — could have further affected spending. Rising operating and SG&A expenses may put pressure on the company’s profitability for the fiscal fourth quarter.
Gap’s Price Performance & Valuation Look Promising
The company’s shares have exhibited an uptrend in the past year, rising 17.7%, leaving behind its industry peers and the S&P 500. In the past year, the apparel retailer’s shares have jumped 17.7%, outperforming the industry’s growth of 4.9% and the S&P 500’s rally of 17.1%. Meanwhile, the stock has underperformed the sector’s rise of 24% in the same period.
The Gap stock has displayed a significant rally compared with Deckers Outdoor DECK, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO and Abercrombie & Fitch’s ANF declines of 9.7%, 45.7% and 25%, respectively, in the past year.
GAP's One-Year Price Performance
At the current price of $22.61, the stock trades at a 26.1% discount to its 52-week high of $30.59. The company trades at a 19.3% premium to its 52-week low mark of $18.95.
From a valuation perspective, Gap shares present an attractive opportunity, trading at a discount to industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.45X, below the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry’s average of 17.94X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector. The stock currently has a Value Score of A, validating its appeal.
Investment Thesis
Gap has established a strong presence with its four distinct brands — Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic and Athleta — each targeting different market segments and contributing to diversified revenue streams. Its recent turnaround highlights the resilience of its business model and effective cost management.
The company is positioning itself for sustained growth by curating trend-forward merchandise, enhancing customer engagement through marketing, expanding its digital commerce efforts and optimizing costs. By leveraging its rich retail heritage and iconic brand portfolio, GAP continues to implement key initiatives to drive long-term success in an evolving retail landscape.
Conclusion
As Gap prepares to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings results, key strengths, such as brand power, digital transformation, sustainability, global expansion, product innovation, operational efficiency, strong leadership and a customer-focused strategy, signal positive momentum. These initiatives position the company to navigate retail challenges and emerge stronger. With solid fundamentals, Gap remains a strong long-term investment, regardless of short-term stock movements post fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results.
GAP’s strong share price performance, coupled with a relatively lower valuation than its peers, presents an appealing opportunity for investors ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter results. If you already own the Gap stock, hold on to it, as its upcoming earnings report is likely to reinforce its strong trajectory.
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
Bath & Body Works BBWI posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein the top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues improved and earnings declined year over year.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The company delivered better-than-expected performances, driven by product innovation, strong execution and an exceptional customer experience. Growth continues to be supported by innovation, enhanced marketing, technology investments, category expansion and international growth. Despite challenges in the retail sector, the company ended the year strong and remains optimistic about sustaining momentum in fiscal 2025.
Bath & Body Works, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Bath & Body Works, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Bath & Body Works, Inc. Quote
BBWI’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics & Insights
The company reported adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.04. Also, the figure increased 1.5% from adjusted earnings of $2.06 in the year-ago quarter.
Revenues decreased 4.3% year over year to $2,788 million and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,772 million. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenues faced a headwind of approximately 500 basis points due to the shifted fiscal calendar, which included an extra week in 2023.
Revenues for Stores - U.S. and Canada declined 2.4% year over year to $2.11 billion, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.07 billion. Direct - U.S. and Canada revenues tumbled 9.4% to $595 million, missing the consensus estimate of $616.3 million. Also, International operations’ revenues declined 10.1% to $84 million, which came below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $87.2 million.
Buy online pick up in store demand grew 45% year over year in the quarter, accounting for approximately 25% of total digital demand.
Sneak Peek Into BBWI’s Margins
The gross profit decreased 2.7% year over year to $1.30 billion. However, the gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 46.7% in the quarter under review, driven by cost savings, distribution productivity and the timing of certain costs. General, administrative and store operating expenses decreased 2.8% to $623 million.
Bath & Body Works reported an operating income of $678 million in fourth-quarter fiscal 2024, down 2.6% from the year-ago quarter. BBWI’s operating margin increased 40 basis points to 24.3% in the quarter.
Adjusted net income was $453 million, down 3.4% from $469 million in the year-ago quarter.
Bath & Body Works’ Store Update
The company ended the quarter with 1,895 stores, wherein it operated 1,782 stores in the United States and 113 in Canada. During 12 months of fiscal 2024, it opened 106 stores in total and closed 61.
BBWI Stock Past Six-Month Performance
BBWI’s Financial Health Snapshot
Bath & Body Works ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $674 million, long-term debt of $3.88 billion, and long-term operating lease liabilities of $883 million. In fiscal 2024, the company provided $886 million in net cash for operating activities.
Bath & Body Works’ FY25 Outlook
For fiscal 2025, net sales growth is expected between 1% and 3%, with North American square footage expanding 2-3% and international net sales returning to growth.
The gross margin is projected at 44%, supported by cost discipline, while SG&A is expected to be 27%, including continued marketing investments at 3.5% of sales and increased technology spending. Net non-operating expenses are forecast at $255 million, reflecting lower interest expenses due to debt reduction in 2024.
Full-year earnings per share are projected to be $3.25-$3.60 versus the $3.61 reported in fiscal 2024. Adjusted earnings are expected to be $3.29 per share. In terms of capital allocation, the company plans to invest $250-$270 million in capital expenditure, primarily in real estate and technology, with some supply-chain projects shifting from 2024 to 2025.
The free cash flow is projected between $750 million and $850 million, including working capital improvements from the Fuel for Growth initiatives. The annual dividend is expected to be 80 cents per share, with $300 million in share repurchases planned for the year.
BBWI’s Q1 Guidance
For the first quarter of fiscal 2025, net sales growth is expected between 1% and 3%, with international retail sales increasing in the high-single digits and reported net sales growing in the double digits due to shipment timing. The gross margin is projected at 43.3%, implying a 50-basis-point decline due to a higher mix of international sales.
SG&A is expected to be 30.2%, in line with the prior year. Fiscal first-quarter net non-operating expenses are forecast at $65 million. Earnings per share for the fiscal first quarter are anticipated to be 36-43 cents, whereas it reported 38 cents in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company have gained 15.7% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 3.3%.
Other Key Picks
We have highlighted three other top-ranked stocks, namely, Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK, Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA and Arhaus Inc. ARHS.
Deckers is a leading designer, producer and brand manager of innovative, niche footwear and accessories developed for outdoor sports and other lifestyle-related activities. It sports a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DECK’s fiscal 2025 earnings and sales indicates growth of 21.2% and 15.6%, respectively, from the fiscal 2024 reported levels. Deckers has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 36.8%.
Ulta Beauty is a leading beauty retailer in the United States. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The consensus estimate for ULTA’s fiscal 2025 earnings and sales indicates a decline of 8.2% and an increase of 0.6%, respectively, from the fiscal 2024 reported levels. Ulta Beauty has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.2%.
Arhaus is a lifestyle brand and omni-channel retailer of premium home furnishings. The company offers an assortment of heirloom quality products. It currently has a Zacks Rank of 2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARHS’s current financial-year earnings and sales indicates growth of 12.5% and 8.4%, respectively, from the 2024 reported levels. Arhaus has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 119.3%.
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
By Ben Levisohn
Navigating the wild twists and turns of the stock market this year hasn't been easy. Wall Street's analysts haven't been much help.
Chaos rules. Winners have become losers, losers are leading, and the S&P 500 gave back a big chunk of its January gains in February. Despite the volatility, 98 stocks in the index gained 10% or more through Wednesday's close, while just 43 have suffered double-digit declines, suggesting there is room for stockpickers to add value — if they pick the right stocks. Big winners included Super Micro Computer, CVS Health, and Tapestry, while the biggest losers included Edison International, West Pharmaceutical Services, and Deckers Outdoor.
Analysts, as a whole, weren't fans of the biggest losers. The percentage of Buy ratings on the 43 names was 46.6%, according to FactSet data, below the average stock's 55%. Unfortunately, the average percentage of Buy ratings on the biggest winners was only 47.2%. What's more, the two biggest losers — Edison and West Pharmaceutical — had 55% and 67% Buy ratings, respectively, while the biggest winner, Super Micro, had just 30% Buy ratings, and CVS, which came in No. 2, had 55%.
That's all par for the course. Trivariate Research's Adam Parker notes that the stocks most loved by Wall Street analysts have underperformed those that they hate by 30 percentage points since 2001, with periods of sharp underperformance followed by outperformance before reversing again. Upgrades and downgrades can produce large one-day moves, but improvement in ratings doesn't translate into better performance.
It goes on. Stocks with the biggest gaps between their current prices and their average price target outperformed from 2009 through 2016, but these days it's more likely to be a sign that analysts were bullish on a stock that went on to drop. Analysts also tend to have more Buy ratings on high-beta stocks — the market's most volatile — which can come back to bite investors during periods of risk-off trading.
The one signal that appeared to lead to outperformance is when all the analysts have price targets in the same ballpark, but even that has begun to work less well, according to Parker's data. And, as he writes, "A signal that is cumulatively ineffective and volatile is not a signal investors should use for stock selection."
But maybe we're thinking about the problem all wrong. Personally, I love analyst research reports. In my previous life as a trader, I made money playing the swings produced by upgrades and downgrades, even if those ratings changes didn't have a prolonged effect on the stock. As a journalist, analyst reports are essential for me to keep up with what is happening in individual stocks and help me spot new concerns or catalysts. And it's always worth paying attention when an analyst breaks from the herd — I still remember J.P. Morgan's Stephen Tusa becoming the first Sell-rated analyst on General Electric long before investors caught on to just how bad things had gotten at the once-dominant industrial giant.
It's also beneficial to think about what analysts have gotten wrong. Take Microsoft, a stock Wall Street simply loves. Its shares have fallen 2% over the past 12 months, making it the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven stocks over the period. That's likely not what analysts had in mind when 94% of the 57 covering it at the end of March 2024 rated shares a Buy with an average price target of $472.62. The subpar performance hasn't dampened the enthusiasm for Microsoft — at least not by much. As of Wednesday's close, 93% of the 58 analysts covering the stock still rated it a Buy with an average target price of $510.22, up 28% from a recent $399.73.
Analysts had been expecting Microsoft's tie-up with OpenAI to give it a leg up in artificial intelligence, while the rush into AI would increase demand for its cloud business. Instead, AI has increased costs — Microsoft's capital spending rose 58% to $44.5 billion in 2024 — while revenue from Azure, the company's cloud business, came in at the low end of guidance. Without analysts, however, I wouldn't know that the problem in the cloud had little to do with AI, while Microsoft also offered a better-than-expected margin forecast.
Analysts, naturally, still love the stock. BofA Securities' Brad Sills, for instance, calls Microsoft a "rare winner." If the company can execute better, the demand for AI and the cloud should help it get back to "a more consistent beat and raise pattern as we move through the year, " Sills writes. "We continue to believe that Microsoft remains uniquely positioned to monetize the vast new AI opportunity across applications and infrastructure at scale."
It's an interesting idea, one that looks more compelling with the stock trading near the bottom of the range it has been stuck in for the past year. Unlike other members of the Mag 7, it doesn't have big gains to give back. And the stock, at 27.8 times 12-month forward earnings, is near the bottom of its price/earnings range over the past five years. Since Microsoft is range-bound, a stop-loss order at, say, $385 would allow you to exit with a minimal loss if support breaks.
Give the analysts a break. Ultimately, it isn't about the research — it's what you do with it.
Write to Ben Levisohn at Ben.Levisohn@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN reported impressive results for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, wherein both top and bottom lines beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.
The fourth-quarter results showcased record sales and profits, fueled by strong performance across the Retail, Subscription and Wholesale segments. Notably, four of the company’s five brands delivered exceptional growth.
URBN’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics and Insights
This lifestyle specialty retailer delivered earnings per share of $1.04, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents. Also, the bottom line increased 50.7% from 69 cents reported in the prior-year period.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Urban Outfitters, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Urban Outfitters, Inc. Quote
Total company net sales increased 10.1% to $1,636.1 million and grew 9.4% compared with adjusted net sales from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,624 million.
Total net sales in the Retail segment rose 6.3%, with comparable net sales in this segment increasing 5.1%. This growth was fueled by high single-digit gains in digital channel sales and low single-digit growth in retail store sales. Specifically, comparable Retail net sales rose 8.3% at Anthropologie and 8% at Free People but fell 3.5% at Urban Outfitters. We estimated the Retail segment’s sales to increase 2.8% year over year.
In the Wholesale segment, net sales grew 26.2% year over year due to a 27% rise in sales of Free People's wholesale, which was attributed to increased sales to specialty customers and department stores. We forecasted an increase of 22.6% in Wholesale segment sales.
The Subscription segment (formerly known as the Nuuly segment) saw a significant 78.4% increase in net sales. The segment grew 55.6% compared with adjusted net sales from the prior-year quarter, primarily driven by a 53.5% rise in average active subscribers. Our model expected Subscription segment sales of 47.6% for the quarter.
Margin & Cost Insights of Urban Outfitters
Adjusted Gross profit rose 16.8% from the prior-year quarter to $527.7 million. Also, the adjusted gross margin expanded 203 basis points (bps) to 32.3%, driven by improved Retail segment markdowns, particularly lower markdowns at Urban Outfitters, partially offset by higher markdowns at Free People. We estimated the adjusted gross margin to be 31.4%.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were up 8.6% year over year to $402.4 million. This increase was mainly due to higher marketing expenses, aimed at boosting customer traffic and sales in the Retail and Subscription segments, as well as increased payroll costs to support the Retail segment stores net sales growth. Our model estimated SG&A expenses to increase 7.1% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A deleveraged 33 bps to 24.6% in the quarter under review. As a percentage of adjusted net sales, SG&A deleveraged 18 bps, primarily indicating leverage in store payroll expenses due to Retail segment sales growth.
URBN recorded an adjusted operating income of $125.3 million, up from $81.4 million reported in the year-ago period. As a rate of adjusted net sales, the operating margin increased 230 bps year over year to 7.7%.
URBN’s Store Update
In fiscal 2025, this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company opened 57 retail locations, which included 37 Free People stores (including 25 FP Movement stores), 13 Anthropologie stores and seven Urban Outfitters stores. Also, it closed 30 retail locations, which included 14 Urban Outfitters stores, 11 Anthropologie stores and five Free People stores.
As of Jan. 31, 2025, URBN operated 255 Urban Outfitters stores in the United States, Canada and Europe and websites, 239 Anthropologie Group stores in the United States, Canada and Europe, catalogs and websites, 230 Free People stores (including 63 FP Movement stores) in the United States, Canada and Europe, catalogs and websites, nine Menus & Venues restaurants, seven Urban Outfitters franchisee-owned stores and two Anthropologie Group franchisee-owned stores.
Urban Outfitters’ Financial Health Snapshot
Urban Outfitters ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $290.5 million and a total shareholders’ equity of $2.47 billion. As of Jan. 31, 2025, total inventory rose 12.9% year over year, with Retail segment inventory up 10.1% and comparable inventory within the segment increasing 11.3%. Meanwhile, Wholesale segment inventory surged 43.7%. The increase in inventory for both segments supported increased sales and planned early receipts.
URBN provided net cash of $502.8 million from operating activities as of Jan. 31, 2025. During the 12 months, which ended Jan. 31, 2025, the company repurchased and subsequently retired 1.2 million shares at a total cost of approximately $52 million. As of the same date, 18 million common shares remained available for repurchase under the program.
URBN’s Fiscal 2026 Outlook
The company expects mid-single-digit total sales growth for the first quarter and fiscal 2026, driven by low single-digit retail segment comps. Free People is expected to achieve low to mid-single-digit positive comps, while Anthropologie anticipates mid-single-digit growth.
Urban Outfitters' retail segment comp is forecasted to be low single-digit negative to flat in the fiscal first quarter, with gradual improvement throughout the year. Meanwhile, Nuuly is poised for double-digit revenue growth, fueled by an expanding subscriber base. The wholesale segment is expected to grow mid-single digits for the year, with low double-digit revenue growth estimated in the fiscal first quarter.
Gross margin is anticipated to improve 50-100 basis points, supported by lower markdowns, particularly at Urban Outfitters, as well as occupancy and delivery expense efficiencies.
SG&A expenses are expected to rise in the mid-single digits, primarily due to increased marketing efforts to drive customer acquisition and sales, as well as higher store labor costs from new store openings and technology investments. The company remains flexible in managing variable SG&A spending based on sales performance.
Inventory levels for fiscal 2026 are expected to grow at or below the rate of sales.
Capital expenditures are expected at approximately $240 million, with 50% allocated to retail store expansion, 25% for technology and logistics and the remaining 25% for home office expansion.
The company plans to open 58 new stores and close 19 in fiscal 2026. Net store growth will be driven by FP Movement, Free People and Anthropologie, with 20 new FP Movement locations, 16 Free People stores and 15 Anthropologie stores planned.
Shares of this Philadelphia, PA-based player have gained 11.5% in the past three months against the industry’s 9.9% decline.
Other Key Picks
Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 15.3% and 20%, respectively, from the year-ago figure. DECK delivered an average earnings surprise of 36.8% in the trailing four quarters.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. BOOT operates specialty retail stores in the United States and internationally. The company offers western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. It currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. BOOT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn’s current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 14.9% and 21.4%, respectively, from the year-ago figure.
Nordstrom, Inc. JWN, a fashion retailer, provides apparels, shoes, beauty, accessories and home goods for women, men, young adults, and children. It currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2. JWN delivered an earnings surprise of 43.5% in the last reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for Nordstrom’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 2% from the year-ago figure.
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein both top and bottom lines beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Total revenues increased, while earnings decreased from the year-ago period’s actuals.
Management attributed the strong performance in 2024 to robust gains in international markets, expansion in non-footwear categories and strength in direct-to-consumer (“DTC”) channels, along with a return to revenue growth in the U.S. wholesale footwear business.
Looking ahead to 2025, the company remains cautious about the near-term outlook, anticipating significant headwinds, particularly the impact of new tariffs on goods imported into the United States. However, with a proven ability to navigate challenging market conditions through agile business model, the company is poised to strengthen its growth trajectory with the pending acquisition of Kurt Geiger, expected to close in the second quarter of 2025.
Share of SHOO decline 8.1% during trading session yesterday. In the past month, shares of this Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) company have lost 15.9% against the industry’s 3.1% growth.
Steven Madden’s Quarterly Performance: Key Insights
Steven Madden posted adjusted quarterly earnings of 55 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents. The metric decreased 9.8% from 61 cents in the prior-year period.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Steven Madden, Ltd. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Steven Madden, Ltd. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Steven Madden, Ltd. Quote
Total revenues rose 12% year over year to $582.3 million. Net sales of $578.8 million went up 11.9% and commission and licensing fee income of $3.5 million increased 31.5% from the year-ago period. The top line beat the consensus estimate of $549 million.
Adjusted gross profit rose 8.6% year over year to $235.5 million. We note that the adjusted gross margin contracted 130 basis points (bps) to 40.4%. We expected a gross margin contraction of 10 bps.
The company’s adjusted operating expenses increased 11.6% year over year to $182.9 million. As a percentage of revenues, adjusted operating expenses decreased 10 bps year over year to 31.4%. We forecasted an increase of 9.3% in adjusted operating expenses.
Steven Madden reported an adjusted operating income of $52.6 million, down 0.6% from the prior-year quarter. The adjusted operating margin decreased 120 bps to 9%. We expected an adjusted operating margin of 8.9% for the quarter.
SHOO’s Segment-Wise Performance Details
Revenues for the Wholesale business improved 13.6% year over year to $402.9 million, which beat our estimate of $371.3 million. Wholesale footwear revenues increased 1%, while wholesale accessories/apparel revenues surged 35.4%.
Gross profit, as a percentage of wholesale revenues was 30.5% compared with 31.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by a higher mix of private label business. We expected the gross margin to be 31.1%.
DTC revenues increased 8.4% year over year to $176 million in the quarter, driven by gains in both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channels. Our model expected total DTC revenues of $173.4 million for the quarter.
Gross profit, as a percentage of direct-to-consumer revenues, was 62% compared with 62.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by increased promotional activity. We anticipated a 20-bps improvement in gross margin.
SHOO ended the fourth quarter with 291 brick-and-mortar retail outlets, five e-commerce websites and 42 company-operated concessions across the international markets.
SHOO’s Financial Health Snapshot
Steven Madden ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $189.9 million, short-term investments of $13.5 million and stockholders’ equity of $876 million, including non-controlling interest of $28.3 million.
In the reported quarter, SHOO repurchased $2.6 million of its common stock, including shares acquired via the net settlement of employees’ stock awards.
The company announced a cash dividend of 21 cents per share, payable on March 21, 2025, to its shareholders of record as of March 10.
SHOO’s 2024 Outlook
For 2025, the company anticipates a 17-19% increase in revenues from 2024. The company anticipates adjusted earnings in the range of $2.30-$2.40 per share. This outlook assumes the Kurt Geiger acquisition closes on May 1, 2025.
Stocks to Consider
Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK designs, markets and distributes footwear, apparel and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers’ current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 15.3% and 20%, respectively, from the year-ago figure. DECK delivered an average earnings surprise of 36.8% in the trailing four quarters.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. BOOT operates specialty retail stores in the United States and internationally. The company offers western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. It currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. BOOT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn’s current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 14.9% and 21.4%, respectively, from the year-ago figure.
Nordstrom, Inc. JWN, a fashion retailer, provides apparels, shoes, beauty, accessories and home goods for women, men, young adults and children. It currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy). JWN delivered an earnings surprise of 43.5% in the last reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for Nordstrom’s current financial-year sales indicates growth of 2% from the year-ago figure.
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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