Dj Holder Dongsi Tou Tiao Ltd Registers 150000 Of Gigacloud Technology Inc >Gct

When deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, investors often rely on analyst recommendations. Media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts often influence a stock's price, but are they really important?

Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT).

GigaCloud Technology Inc. currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.00, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by four brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.00 indicates Strong Buy.

Of the four recommendations that derive the current ABR, four are Strong Buy, representing 100% of all recommendations.

Brokerage Recommendation Trends for GCT

The ABR suggests buying GigaCloud Technology Inc., but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.

Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.

This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near -term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.

Zacks Rank Should Not Be Confused With ABR

In spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.

The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.

Analysts employed by brokerage firms have been and continue to be overly optimistic with their recommendations. Since the ratings issued by these analysts are more favorable than their research would support because of the vested interest of their employers, they mislead investors far more often than they guide.

On the other hand, earnings estimate revisions are at the core of the Zacks Rank. And empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

In addition, the different Zacks Rank grades are applied proportionately to all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide current-year earnings estimates. In other words, this tool always maintains a balance among its five ranks.

Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.

Should You Invest in GCT?

Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for GigaCloud Technology Inc., the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $2.91.

Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for GigaCloud Technology Inc. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here

It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for GigaCloud Technology Inc.

Zacks Investment Research

GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.

Shares of this company have returned +10.7% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.4% change. The Zacks Technology Services industry, to which GigaCloud Technology Inc. belongs, has gained 16.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Revisions to Earnings Estimates

Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, GigaCloud Technology Inc. is expected to post earnings of $0.93 per share, indicating a change of +6.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The consensus earnings estimate of $2.91 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +26.5%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.62 indicates a change of +24.4% from what GigaCloud Technology Inc. is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for GigaCloud Technology Inc.

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Projected Revenue Growth

Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.

In the case of GigaCloud Technology Inc. the consensus sales estimate of $324.9 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +32.8%. The $1.17 billion and $1.34 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +65.7% and +14.7%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

GigaCloud Technology Inc. reported revenues of $303.32 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +70.2%. EPS of $0.98 for the same period compares with $0.59 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $279.4 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +8.56%. The EPS surprise was +46.27%.

Over the last four quarters, GigaCloud Technology Inc. surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.

Valuation

No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

GigaCloud Technology Inc. is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom Line

The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about GigaCloud Technology Inc. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Zacks Investment Research