Dj Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding, Inst Holders, 4Q 2024 (Olli)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet said Wednesday it has opened four new stores in Wisconsin, occupying former Big Lots locations in Fond Du Lac, Sheboygan, West Bend, and Mt. Pleasant.

The discount retailer, which sells excess inventory and closeout merchandise, said the expansion adds 50 to 60 jobs in the region.

Shares were 1% higher in recent premarket activity.

Newell Brands Inc. NWL posted mixed fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate but sales missed. Both the metrics fell year over year.

The company’s normalized earnings per share (EPS) were 16 cents, down 11.1% from 18 cents in the year-ago quarter. The bottom-line figure surpassed the consensus mark of 14 cents per share.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Newell Brands Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Newell Brands Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Newell Brands Inc. Quote

Net sales dipped 6.1% year over year to $1,949 million on lower core sales, as well as the impacts of business exits and adverse foreign exchange. The metric missed the consensus estimate of $1,973 million. Core sales fell 3% year over year.

However, pricing across the international markets to offset inflation and currency was a significant contributor to core sales. A disciplined implementation of the company’s new corporate strategy, operating model and culture transformation appear encouraging. NWL has reinforced its front-end selling and marketing capabilities.

The normalized gross margin expanded 330 bps year over year to 34.6%, reflecting the sixth straight quarter of year-over-year improvement. The normalized operating margin increased 70 bps year over year to 7.1%.

However, shares of the company have fallen more than 20% in the pre-trading session today, following the soft quarterly results and bleak outlook for the first quarter of 2025. In the past three months, the company’s shares have lost 21.1% against the industry’s 2.4% growth.

NWL’s Segmental Details

Net sales in the Home & Commercial Solutions segment were $1.2 billion, down 7.7% from the year-ago period. Core sales dipped 4.6% year over year, due to decreases in the Kitchen and Home Fragrance businesses, somewhat offset by a rise in the Commercial business. Also, the impacts of foreign exchange headwinds and few business exits acted as deterrents. We had expected sales of $1.2 billion for the segment.

The Learning and Development segment recorded net sales of $628 million, down 1.1% from the year-ago quarter. Core sales grew 0.4%, which offset the adverse impacts of foreign exchange. While core sales grew in the Writing business, the metric fell in Baby. We had expected sales of $633.8 million.

The Outdoor and Recreation segment’s net sales of $152 million declined 7.9% from the year-ago quarter. Core sales fell 3.8% and negative foreign exchange hurt the results. However, the metric beat our estimate of $137.3 million.

Updates on NWL’s Organizational Realignment

Newell’s organizational realignment is likely to strengthen its front-end commercial capabilities, including consumer understanding and brand communication.

As part of this realignment, NWL made several organizational design changes, including setting up a cross-functional brand-management organization, realigning business unit finance to aid the new global brand management model and simplifying the regional go-to-market organizations, as well as unifying the domestic retail sales teams, digital technology team, business-related accounting personnel, the manufacturing quality team and the human resources operations into the center-led teams to boost standardization and scale with a One Newell approach.

Under the Realignment Plan in 2024, NWL realized annualized pretax savings of $75 million, net of reinvestment, and spent restructuring and related charges of $52 million.

Other Financial Details of Newell

This Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $198 million, long-term debt of $4.5 billion, outstanding debt of $4.6 billion and shareholders’ equity of $2.8 billion. NWL also provided $496 million in cash for operating activities during 2024.

During the reported quarter, the company refinanced $1.25 billion of debt.

NWL’s Outlook

Management issued a preliminary outlook for the first quarter and 2025. The company anticipates 2025 sales to drop in the band of 2-4% year over year, with core sales to decline 2% to increase 1%. The normalized operating margin is likely to be in the band of 9-9.5% compared with 8.2% recorded last year. Normalized EPS is predicted to be in the band of 70-76 cents, up from 68 cents reported last year. The company envisions operating cash flow to be in the range of $450-$500 million.

For the first quarter, net sales are envisioned to dip in the range of 5-8%, with core sales anticipated to drop in the band of 2-4%. The company expects a normalized operating margin in the range of 2-4% and normalized loss in the band of six-nine cents a share. It had posted break-even earnings in the year-ago quarter.

Stocks to Consider in Consumer Staples Space

We have highlighted better-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely Freshpet FRPT, Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI and Helen of Troy HELE.

Freshpet, a pet food company, has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 144.5%. FRPT currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s current financial-year sales and EPS indicates growth of 27.2% and 228.6%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.

Ollie's is a value retailer of brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ollie's current financial-year’s sales and EPS implies growth of 8.3% and 13.1%, respectively, from the year-ago numbers. The consensus mark for OLLI’s EPS has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

Helen of Troy, a leading consumer products player that operates through a diversified portfolio of renowned brands, currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. HELE has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.3%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Helen of Troy’s current fiscal-year sales and EPS indicates declines of 5.1% and 18.9%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter’s figures.

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Post Holdings, Inc. POST reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines increased year over year. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate while sales missed the same.

Post Holdings’ Q1 Metrics in Detail

The company posted adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49. The bottom line improved from the adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Net sales reached $1,974.7 million, marking a 0.4% increase, which includes $60.8 million from acquisitions. When excluding the acquisition impact, the growth in Foodservice was counterbalanced by declines in Post Consumer Brands, Refrigerated Retail and Weetabix. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,975 million.

The gross profit of $595.3 million rose 4% year over year, while the gross margin expanded to 30.1% from 29.1% reported in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 2.7% to $331.6 million. As a percentage of net sales, the metric came in at 16.8% compared with 16.4% reported in the year-ago period.

The operating profit registered a robust increase of 2.3% to $214.1 million. The adjusted EBITDA was $369.9 million, an increase of 2.9% from $359.5 million in the year-ago quarter.

Post Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Post Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Post Holdings, Inc. Quote

Decoding Post Holdings’ Segmental Performance

Post Consumer Brands: The segment reported net sales of $963.9 million, down 2.5% year over year, including $54.4 million in sales from Perfection Pet Foods. Excluding the gains from Perfection, volumes fell 8.8%. Pet food volumes fell 13% while Cereal volumes declined 2.3%. The segment’s profit dropped 1.3% to $131 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 7.9% to $204.8 million.

Weetabix: The segment registered a 1.2% decline in net sales to $127.6 million, including a $6.4 million contribution from the Deeside acquisition and a positive currency impact of nearly 300 basis points. Excluding the impact of Deeside, volumes declined by 11.6%, primarily due to reduced promotional activity, the strategic discontinuation of underperforming products, and a decline in the cereal category. The segment's profit declined 24.3% to $15.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA dropping 8.5% to $28 million.

Foodservice: The segment recorded 8.7% growth in net sales to $616.6 million. Volumes grew by 2.8%, driven mainly by distribution gains in eggs and potatoes, along with the addition of ready-to-drink shakes in the current period. The segment’s profit increased 13.7% to $86.1 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 10.4% to $116.8 million.

Refrigerated Retail: The segment sales dipped 5.1% year over year, amounting to $266.6 million. Volumes dropped by 4.4%, with growth in sausage mitigated by declines in side dishes, cheese and eggs. The segmental profit fell 32% to $24.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped 22.4% to $41.6 million.

Other Financial Aspects of POST

Post Holdings ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $872.9 million, long-term debt of $6,944.4 million and total shareholders’ equity of $3,898.1 million.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Post Holdings repurchased 1.6 million shares of its common stock for $181.1 million. From the end of the first quarter through Feb. 6, 2025, an additional 1 million shares were repurchased for $106.9 million. On Feb. 4, the company approved a new $500 million share repurchase program, which will start on Feb. 10. As of Feb. 6, Post Holdings had $200.2 million remaining under its current $500 million repurchase program.

What to Expect From POST in FY25?

Post Holdings has updated its guidance for the fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA, now projecting a range of $1,420-$1,460 million, up from the previous range of $1,410-$1,460 million.

In addition, the company expects fiscal year 2025 capital expenditures to be between $380 and $420 million. This includes investments from Post Consumer Brands in network optimization and pet food safety and capacity, totaling $90-$100 million. The company also plans to allocate $80-$90 million toward Foodservice investments, including the completion of the Norwalk, IA, precooked egg facility expansion and the continued expansion of cage-free egg facilities.

This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s shares have dropped 4.3% compared with the industry’s decline of 9.9% in the past six months.

Top-Ranked Stocks

We have highlighted some top-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely United Natural Foods UNFI, Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI and TreeHouse Foods THS.

United Natural Foods, a key distributor of natural, organic and specialty food and non-food products, presently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for United Natural Foods’ current financial-year sales and EPS indicates growth of 0.3% and 442.9%, respectively, from the prior-year levels. UNFI has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 553.1%.

Ollie's is a value retailer of brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ollie's current financial year’s sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.3% and 13.1%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. The consensus mark for OLLI’s EPS has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

TreeHouse Foods, a private brand snacks and beverages company, presently has a Zacks Rank #2. THS delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.4%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TreeHouse Foods’ current financial year’s sales and EPS suggests a decline of 4.3% and 20.7%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.

Zacks Investment Research

Philip Morris International Inc.’s PM shares rallied 9.4% in the pre-market session today after reporting robust fourth-quarter 2024 results. Both top and bottom lines increased year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the quarter. Results were fueled by robust momentum across regions and product categories, including continued momentum in IQOS and ZYN, along with an impressive combustibles performance.

Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.55, which increased 14% year over year. Excluding currency effects, the adjusted EPS jumped 9.6%. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Net revenues of $9,706 million increased 7.3% on a reported basis and on an organic basis (excluding currency movements and acquisitions). Revenues came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,362.4 million. The increase in organic revenues was backed by positive pricing variance (mainly backed by elevated combustible tobacco pricing) and favorable volume/mix (accountable to increased smoke-free product volumes).

Philip Morris International Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Philip Morris International Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Philip Morris International Inc. Quote

PM’s Quarterly Performance: Key Metrics and Insights

During the fourth quarter, Philip Morris’ net revenues from combustible products increased 6% and 6.2% organically due to high single-digit pricing and robust industry volumes.

Revenues from the smoke-free business increased 9.2% (up 9% on an organic basis) and formed 40% of the company’s total revenues (up by 0.7 percentage points compared with the year-ago period). Within the smoke-free business, inhalable smoke-free products (SFP) were driven by strength in IQOS, while oral SFP was fueled by increased shipment volumes of ZYN.

Total shipment volumes (including heated tobacco units, oral SFP and cigarettes) increased 2.3% to 193.1 billion units in the fourth quarter.

The adjusted operating income ascended 15.3% (up 11.8% on an organic basis) to $3,519 million due to improved pricing variance and a positive volume/mix, somewhat negated by increased marketing, administration and research costs, despite lower manufacturing costs resulting from improved productivity.

Decoding PM’s Region-Wise Performance

Following the sale of Vectura Group Ltd. on Dec. 31, 2024, the company will update its segment reporting to include the remaining units of Vectura Fertin Pharma within the Europe segment, starting in the first quarter of 2025.

Net revenues in the European region grew 5.5% on an organic basis to $4,056 million. This was a result of positive pricing variance. Total HTU and cigarette shipment volumes in the region were almost flat at 53.6 billion units.

In the SSEA, CIS & MEA regions, net revenues increased 6.6% organically to $2,868 million on improved pricing variance and a favorable volume/mix. Total cigarette and HTU shipment volume in the region rose 4.1% to 94.2 billion units.

In the EA, AU & PMI DF regions, net revenues grew 2.2% organically to $1,434 million on favorable pricing variance. Total shipment volumes in the region inched up 0.5% to 23.4 billion units.

Revenues in the Americas surged 21% on an organic basis to $1,261 million. This was a result of the positive volume/mix and pricing. Total cigarette and HTU shipment volumes in the Americas dipped 2% to 17.3 billion units.

Philip Morris: Other Updates

Revenues from the Wellness and Healthcare unit improved 23.2% year over year on an organic basis to $87 million.

The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $4,216 million, long-term debt of $42,166 million and a total shareholder deficit of $9,870 million.

Philip Morris announced its quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share ($5.40 per share on an annualized basis). However, the company stated that it would not make share repurchases in 2025.

What to Expect From PM in 2025?

Adjusted EPS for 2025 is now envisioned in the $7.04-$7.17 range, suggesting 7.2-9.1% growth. Adjusted EPS, excluding currency, is likely to be in the $7.26-$7.39 band, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.5-12.5%. For full-year 2025, PM expects reported EPS in the band of $6.55-$6.68 compared with the $4.52 reported in 2024.

The total international industry volume for cigarettes and HTUs (excluding China and the United States) is likely to decline nearly 1% in 2025. The total cigarette and smoke-free product shipment volume for Philip Morris is likely to rise up to 2%, driven by a smoke-free product volume increase of 12-14%.

Nicotine pouch shipment volumes in the United States are expected to be between 780 and 820 million cans for 2025, projecting 34-41% growth.

For 2025, PM expects net revenues to increase 6-8% on an organic basis. The operating income on an organic basis is likely to rise 10.5-12.5%.

Management expects an operating cash flow of around $11 billion in 2025. Capital expenditures are likely to be nearly $1.5 billion, including additional investments in ZYN.

For the first quarter of 2025, Philip Morris envisions adjusted EPS in the range of $1.58-$1.63, including a projected currency headwind of 4 cents.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have gained 5.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 6.2%.

Top-Ranked Stocks

We have highlighted some better-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely United Natural Foods UNFI, Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI and Helen of Troy HELE.

United Natural Foods, a key distributor of natural, organic and specialty food and non-food products, presently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for United Natural Foods’ current financial-year sales and EPS indicates growth of 0.3% and 442.9%, respectively, from the prior-year levels. UNFI has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 553.1%.

Ollie's is a value retailer of brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ollie's current financial year’s sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.3% and 13.1%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. The consensus mark for OLLI’s EPS has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

Helen of Troy, a leading consumer products player that operates through a diversified portfolio of renowned brands, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. HELE has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.3%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Helen of Troy’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests declines of 5.1% and 18.9%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter’s reported figures.

Zacks Investment Research

Mondelez International, Inc. MDLZ posted fourth-quarter 2024 results, with the top line increasing year over year but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line decreased from the year-ago quarter’s level and missed the consensus mark amid a challenging operating environment marked by cocoa cost inflation.

Adjusted earnings were 65 cents per share, which decreased 15.9% on a constant-currency (cc) basis. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents. This decline was mainly caused by decreased operating results and lower equity method investment earnings, somewhat offset by reduced taxes and shares outstanding.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Net revenues increased 3.1% year over year to $9,604 million, driven by effective pricing strategies and positive volume/mix growth. However, the metric came below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,691.7 million.

Mondelez International, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Mondelez International, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Mondelez International, Inc. Quote

MDLZ’s Q4 Revenue and Margin Breakdown: Key Insights

Organic net revenues grew 5.2% year over year in the fourth quarter. The upside was primarily fueled by a 5.1 percentage point (pp) increase in pricing, alongside a favorable volume/mix impact of 0.1 pp. Our model estimated organic net revenue growth of 5.6%.

Revenues from emerging markets increased 1.7% to $3,640 million and rose 6.7% on an organic basis. The growth was backed by favorable pricing actions (up 6.5 pp) and volume/mix (up 0.2 pp). The company saw growth trends across countries like South Africa, China and Brazil among others.

Revenues from developed markets increased 4% to $5,964 million while increasing 4.3% on an organic basis, reflecting solid growth from Europe and the U.S. Developed markets saw a volume/mix increase of 0.1 pp while pricing was favorable by 4.2 pp.

Region-wise, revenues in Latin America dropped 7.2%, while the metric in Asia, the Middle East & Africa and Europe grew 9.9% and 5.8%, respectively. In the North American regions, revenues inched up 0.1%. On an organic basis, revenues rose 4.9%, 8.6%, 7.4% and 0.4% in Latin America, Asia, the Middle East & Africa, Europe and North America, respectively.

The adjusted gross profit fell by $440 million at cc, and the adjusted gross profit margin contracted by 650 basis points (bps), reaching 31.5%. This decline was mainly due to increased raw material and transportation costs, somewhat offset by favorable pricing and reduced manufacturing costs stemming from improved productivity.

Mondelez’s adjusted operating income declined by $396 million at cc, while the adjusted operating income margin contracted 510 bps to 10%. This decrease was mainly caused by escalated input cost inflation, partially mitigated by favorable net pricing, overhead leverage and lower manufacturing costs resulting from productivity improvements.

Mondelez’s Financial Health Snapshot

The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,351 million, long-term debt of $15,664 million and total equity of $26,958 million. MDLZ provided $4,910 million of net cash from operating activities for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2024. Adjusted free cash flow was $3,523 million for the same period. Management expects a free cash flow of more than $3 billion for 2025.

The company returned $4.7 billion to its shareholders in cash dividends and share repurchases during 2024.

What to Expect From MDLZ in 2025?

Mondelez projects organic net revenue growth of around 5% in 2025. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline by nearly 10% on a cc basis, thanks to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation. The company anticipates that currency translation will reduce 2025 net revenue growth by roughly 2.5%, with a negative impact of 12 cents on adjusted EPS.

The company anticipates a double-digit increase in inflation for 2025, largely driven by cocoa costs and some labor expenses. Regarding interest expense, the company expects it to be nearly $350 million in the year. In addition, the company projects an adjusted effective tax rate in the mid-20s range.

The company’s shares have slumped 18.7% in the past three months compared to the industry’s 10.3% decline.

Top-Ranked Stocks

We have highlighted some top-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely United Natural Foods UNFI, Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI and Helen of Troy HELE.

United Natural Foods, a key distributor of natural, organic and specialty food and non-food products, presently flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for United Natural Foods’ current financial-year sales and EPS indicates growth of 0.3% and 442.9%, respectively, from the prior-year levels. UNFI has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 553.1%.

Ollie's is a value retailer of brand-name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ollie's current financial year’s sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.3% and 13.1%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers. The consensus mark for OLLI’s EPS has been unchanged in the past 30 days.

Helen of Troy, a leading consumer products player that operates through a diversified portfolio of renowned brands, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. HELE has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.3%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Helen of Troy’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests declines of 5.1% and 18.9%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter’s reported figures.

Zacks Investment Research