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While the final House votes are still being tallied, the latest projections indicate that Republicans are set to take control of the lower chamber of Congress alongside the Senate, clearing the path a full GOP sweep of the executive and legislative branches. Investors have been quick to cheer an expected pro-business agenda from President-elect Trump, which is broadly anticipated to feature investments in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure, widespread deregulation, and fresh tax incentives. Additionally, shifts in environmental policies could affect the renewable energy and waste management industries.
Against this backdrop, analysts at Oppenheimer have highlighted three stocks that could benefit from anticipated policy changes under the incoming “Red Wave” in Washington, D.C.: Caterpillar , a leader in heavy equipment manufacturing expected to benefit from infrastructure spending and reshoring trends; Tesla , the domestic electric vehicle (EV) leader whose CEO Elon Musk is a close ally of Trump's; and Republic Services , a top player in waste management and recycling that could see a boost for its landfill biogas initiatives. Here's a closer look at all three.
#1. Tesla
Tesla has already experienced a meteoric rise following Donald Trump's election win. The stock has surged 32% in the past week, reaching a 52-week high above $358 in the process and reclaiming a $1 trillion market cap. TSLA is now up 33.8% on a YTD basis after spending most of 2024 in the red, although the shares remain down about 15% from their 2021 highs.
Musk, who was openly supportive of Trump during the campaign, could see Tesla benefit from the incoming administration’s policies. For instance, Trump’s potential tariffs on Chinese goods could make it harder for Chinese EVs to penetrate the U.S. market. This would be an advantage for Tesla, which manufactures EVs domestically. As a result, Tesla could also face fewer cost increases on parts than domestic competitors reliant on imports, giving it a stronger competitive edge in U.S. pricing.
In addition to these potential policy tailwinds, Tesla is showing solid growth in its core business, as highlighted in the third-quarter earnings report released on Oct. 23. The company posted a net profit of $2.17 billion, beating estimates of $2.01 billion, although revenue slightly missed expectations at $25.18 billion against a forecast of $25.47 billion. Nevertheless, margins beat estimates, which came as a major relief to investors amid the ongoing EV price war. According to Tesla, it is currently positioned between "two major growth waves."
Earlier in the month, Tesla’s Q3 delivery report had showed that the company delivered 462,890 vehicles, topping consensus estimates and marking a 4% increase over the previous quarter, and 6% year-over-year. Looking forward, Musk projected a 20% to 30% increase in vehicle growth by 2025.
Previously, Tesla’s robotaxi announcement on Oct. 10 had sent the stock reeling as investors reacted to a lack of details, but a recent patent win for the automaker could reveal more insights about the company's ultimate strategy on autonomous driving.
Tesla appears to be a compelling long-term investment, especially if it achieves its autonomous driving goals. However, the company's valuation remains a concern. Despite being a low-margin automaker, Tesla is valued similarly to a disruptive tech company, trading at a forward adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 140x. This valuation reflects high market expectations for growth, which is worth considering for investors who may not have the patience or risk tolerance to ride out some of Tesla's notorious missed deadlines.
While Tesla bulls, including longtime enthusiast Dan Ives of Wedbush, have weighed in optimistically on the potential impact of a second Trump administration, the stock remains a “Hold” overall.
#2. Caterpillar
With a market cap of $191.5 billion, the construction and mining equipment giant Caterpillar has reached all-time highs this year. The stock is up 32.9% year-to-date and 64% over the past 52 weeks, outpacing the broader S&P 500 Index .
Known for its reliable dividend history, Caterpillar has increased its dividend at an average 7.5% growth rate over the past five years. Currently, it pays a quarterly dividend of $1.41 per share, yielding 1.42%. With over 30 years of consistent dividend growth, CAT is a Dividend Aristocrat, and remains a top choice for passive income investors.
On Oct. 30, Caterpillar reported its third-quarter earnings, which caused a 2% drop in the stock as the results missed expectations. Revenue was down 4%, totaling $16.11 billion, with the Construction Industries segment seeing a 9% decline on lower sales volumes and unfavorable pricing. However, the Energy & Transportation segment experienced 5% growth, driven by rising demand for power generation. Caterpillar attributed the sales volume drop of $759 million mainly to reduced end-user equipment sales and unfavorable dealer inventory adjustments.
On an adjusted basis, Caterpillar reported adjusted EPS of $5.17, while EBITDA of $3.6 billion represented a 7% year-over-year decrease.
CAT maintains a strong balance sheet, and generated ME&T cash flow of $2.7 billion during Q3. The company also increased its forecast for full-year ME&T free cash flow, which is now anticipated to reach the upper end of its previously stated $5-10 billion range.
From a valuation perspective, Caterpillar’s forward adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.13 appears attractive, representing a modest discount to both the sector median of 21.1 and its own five-year average. This positions Caterpillar as a relatively affordable entry in the industrial sector.
Wall Street analysts have a consensus “moderate buy” rating on Caterpillar, which has surpassed the mean price target of $379.39.
#3. Republic Services
With a market cap of $66.3 billion, Republic Services stock has performed quite respectably against the broader market, gaining 34.4% over the past 52 weeks and hitting a new high of $214.96 to start this week.
Additionally, Republic's continued commitment to shareholder value through dividends adds some appeal. The company offers a quarterly dividend of $0.58 per share, yielding 1.10%, that's backed by over two decades of consistent growth.
Along with its core, recession-proof operations in waste collection and recycling, Oppenheimer expects RSG to benefit from policy shifts that favor the company's operations in converting landfill gas to energy.
Republic Services, in collaboration with Archaea Energy, is currently developing a renewable natural gas (RNG) facility at the Middle Point Landfill in Tennessee. This project will convert landfill gas into a low-carbon fuel, supporting the company’s sustainability goals while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The RNG facility is part of a broader initiative to build 39 new RNG projects at landfills across the country. Republic Services already operates 77 renewable energy projects, generating electricity and RNG from its landfills to fuel its fleet and help communities meet sustainability targets.
On Oct. 29, RSG reported an adjusted Q3 profit of $1.81 per share, which comfortably surpassed consensus estimates, while revenue rose 6.5% to $4.08 billion, but slightly missed Wall Street's forecast. The company's gross margins and operating margins improved slightly to 41% and 20.8%, respectively, in the quarter.
Overall, analysts have given Republic Services a consensus rating of “moderate buy,” with a mean price target of $221.84.
On the date of publication, Nauman Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for new and old investors, and Zacks Premium offers many different ways to do both.
The research service features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens, all of which will help you become a smarter, more confident investor.
It also includes access to the Zacks Style Scores.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores is a unique set of guidelines that rates stocks based on three popular investing types, and were developed as complementary indicators for the Zacks Rank. This combination helps investors choose securities with the highest chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Finding good stocks at good prices, and discovering which companies are trading under their true value, are what value investors like to focus on. So, the Value Style Score takes into account ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and a host of other multiples to highlight the most attractive and discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors are more concerned with a stock's future prospects, and the overall financial health and strength of a company. Thus, the Growth Style Score analyzes characteristics like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will see sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum investors, who live by the saying "the trend is your friend," are most interested in taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook. Utilizing one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates, among other factors, the Momentum Style Score can help determine favorable times to buy high-momentum stocks.
VGM Score
If you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
A proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank utilizes the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings outlook, to help investors create a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To have the best chance of big returns, you'll want to always consider stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B, which will give you the highest probability of success. If you're looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, it's important they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
Since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank, the direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy.
Here's an example: a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one with Style Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings outlook, and a bigger chance its share price will decrease too.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Republic Services (RSG)
Republic Services is a leading provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, and energy services. As of Dec 31, 2023, the company operated through 364 collection operations, 246 transfer stations, 207 active landfills, 74 recycling centers, three treatment, recovery and disposal facilities, 22 treatment, storage and disposal facilities, 12 deep injection wells, 1 polymer center and 6 salt water disposal wells, across the United States and Canada. The company is engaged in 76 landfill gas-to-energy and renewable energy projects and had post-closure responsibility for 126 closed landfills.
RSG is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Business Services stock. RSG has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 2.9% over the past four weeks.
Eight analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2024, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.06 to $6.24 per share. RSG also boasts an average earnings surprise of 8.2%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, RSG should be on investors' short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Avis Budget Group, Inc. CAR reported lower-than-expected third-quarter 2024 results.
See Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.
Despite the earnings miss, the stock has gained 12% since the earnings release on Oct. 31, 2024.
CAR’s earnings of $6.7 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 22.2% and decreased 60.4% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. Total revenues of $3.5 billion missed the consensus estimate by 2.3% and declined 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.
Avis Budget’s shares have declined 47.6% in the year-to-date period compared with 4.6% decrease of the industry and 27.7% growth of the Zacks S&P 500 composite.
YTD Price Performance
Avis Budget’s Segmental Revenues
Revenues from the Americas amounted to $2.6 billion, indicating a fall of 4% from the year-ago quarter. The metric missed our estimate of $2.7 billion.
International revenues were $840 million, up 1% on a year-over-year basis. However, the figure missed our expectation of $845.6 million. Strong international inbound and intra-European cross-border travel drove this region’s revenues.
CAR’s Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA was $503 million, down 45% from third-quarter 2023. The Americas segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $384 million, which declined 48% from the year-ago quarter. Internationally, adjusted EBITDA of $139 million decreased 29%.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow of CAR
Avis Budget exited the third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $602 million compared with $511 million at the end of the second quarter of 2024. Corporate debt amounted to $6 billion compared with $5.3 billion reported in the preceding quarter.
CAR generated $1.3 billion in net cash from operating activities. Adjusted free cash flow utilized amounted to $600 million. Capital expenditures were $40 million.
Avis Budget currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Earnings Snapshot of CAR’s Peers
Republic Services, Inc. RSG reported mixed third-quarter 2024 results.
RSG’s earnings per share (excluding 1 cent from non-recurring items) of $1.8 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.7% and grew 17.5% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $4.1 billion missed the consensus mark by a slight margin but increased 6.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Omnicom Group Inc. OMC reported impressive third-quarter 2024 results.
OMC's earnings of $2 per share beat the consensus estimate by 3.1% and rose 9.1% from the year-ago quarter. Total revenues of $3.9 billion outpaced the consensus mark by 2.3% and grew 8.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Fiserv, Inc. FI reported mixed third-quarter 2024 results.
FI’s adjusted earnings per share (excluding $1.3 from non-recurring items) of $2.3 beat the consensus mark by 2.2% and gained 17.4% year over year. Adjusted revenues of $4.9 billion missed the consensus estimate by a slight margin but rose a tad on a year-over-year basis.
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