Dj Shoe Carnival Inc, Inst Holders, 3Q 2024 (Scvl)

Shoe Carnival, Inc. SCVL reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein the top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate and bottom line surpassed the same. Both metrics declined year over year.

The company witnessed weak performance, with lower adjusted gross profit and operating income, although these were partially offset by synergies from the Rogan’s acquisition and reduced SG&A expenses. Progress was made on the store rebanner strategy, with several Shoe Carnival stores converted to Shoe Station. For the full fiscal 2024, the company has revised its sales guidance, expecting modest growth despite the calendar shift and a shorter fiscal year.

Shoe Carnival, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Shoe Carnival, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Shoe Carnival, Inc. Quote

More on SCVL’s Q3 Results

Shoe Carnival reported adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents. However, the bottom line declined from adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Net sales amounted to $306.9 million, down 4.1% year over year. Also, the top line missed the consensus estimate of $311 million. This decline reflects the effects of a retail calendar shift, which moved approximately $20 million of net sales out of the fiscal third quarter of 2024 compared with the previous year. Comparable store sales declined 4.1% year over year in the quarter under review.

Shoe Carnival’s Margin & Cost Details

Adjusted gross profit decreased 6% year over year to $110.6 million. The adjusted gross margin of 36.1% contracted 70 basis points (bps) year over year. This decrease was due to higher merchandise margins and leverage in buying, distribution, and occupancy costs associated with operating more stores, as well as the deleveraging effect of reduced net sales during the quarter due to the retail calendar shift.

Adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses decreased 4.5% year over year to $85.7 million. The decrease was primarily attributed to lower selling costs at Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station banner stores, which more than offset the costs associated with operating the recently acquired Rogan’s stores during the quarter.

As a percentage of net sales, selling, general and administrative expenses declined 10 bps year over year to 28%. Moreover, the company realized synergies within Rogan’s during the fiscal third quarter of 2024 and is ahead of schedule in integrating the acquired operations.

Adjusted operating income decreased 10.9% year over year to $24.9 million. As a percentage of net sales, this metric declined 60 bps year over year to 8.1%. This decline was primarily due to lower net sales resulting from the calendar shift, partially offset by growth from the Rogan’s acquisition and associated synergies, as well as reduced SG&A expenses.

SCVL’s Store Update

As of Nov. 21, 2024, the company reached a milestone of 431 stores, consisting of 361 Shoe Carnival, 42 Shoe Station stores and 28 Rogan’s locations. In the fiscal third quarter, one new Shoe Station store was opened in Tennessee, marking the brand's entry into a new market.

The company made progress on its store banner growth strategy during the quarter, with seven Shoe Carnival stores converted to Shoe Station stores. In total, 10 stores have now been rebannered. The company plans to rebanner 25 more Shoe Carnival stores to Shoe Station stores in the first half of fiscal 2025.

Shoe Carnival’s Financial Health Snapshot

The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $77.2 million, a long-term portion of operating lease liabilities of $317.7 million and total shareholder’s equity of $635.7 million.

As of Nov. 21, 2024, the company had $50 million available for future share repurchases. SCVL did not engage in any share repurchase activity during the quarter.

SCVL’s Fiscal 2024 Outlook

Following the third-quarter results, the company has updated its guidance range for fiscal 2024. Net sales are now projected to be between $1.20 billion and $1.23 billion, revised from the prior range of $1.23 billion-$1.25 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4.5% compared with fiscal 2023. The company remains on track for Rogan’s acquisition to generate over $80 million in net sales for fiscal 2024. Gross margin is expected to remain consistent with fiscal 2023. Gross margin was 35.8% in fiscal 2023.

SG&A, as a percentage of net sales, is anticipated to increase by approximately 30 basis points compared with fiscal 2023, slightly improved from the previous guidance of a 40-basis-point increase.

GAAP earnings per share (EPS) remains forecasted in the range of $2.55-$2.70, while adjusted EPS is expected to be between $2.60 and $2.75. In fiscal 2023, GAAP EPS was $2.68 and adjusted EPS was $2.70.

The company informed that fiscal 2024 comprises 52 weeks compared with 53-week fiscal 2023. This, combined with the retail calendar shift, is expected to reduce fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 net sales by approximately $20 million compared with the prior-year period, with an estimated negative impact of 10 cents on EPS.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have lost 23.3% in past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 5.6%.

Key Picks

We have highlighted three better-ranked stocks, namely, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, Gildan Activewear Inc. GIL and Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO.

Abercrombie is a specialty retailer of premium, high-quality casual apparel. It carries a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

ANF delivered a 16.8% earnings surprise in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie’s fiscal 2025 earnings and sales indicates growth of 64.8% and 13.4%, respectively, from fiscal 2024 reported levels. ANF has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 28%.

Gildan is a manufacturer and marketer of premium quality branded basic activewear for sale principally in the wholesale imprinted activewear segment of North America’s apparel market. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

The consensus estimate for Gildan’s current financial-year earnings and sales indicates growth of 15.6% and 1.5%, respectively, from figures of 2023. GIL has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.4%.

Steven Madden designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward name-brand and private-label footwear. It currently has a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden’s 2024 earnings and sales indicates growth of 8.2% and 13.4%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. SHOO has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.8%.

Zacks Investment Research

Shoe Carnival, Inc. reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 71 cents, beating the street view of 67 cents.

Quarterly sales of $306.89 million missed the analyst consensus estimate of $316.95 million.

Quarterly sales reflected the impact of the retail calendar shift that resulted in approximately $20 million of net sales moving out of the third quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year.

Without the impact of the retail calendar shift, net sales increased by 2.2% versus the prior year.

“Our flexible digital-first marketing campaign and great brand assortment drove demand during this peak shopping period and profitability in line with expectations for the third quarter,” said Mark Worden, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Comparable store net sales dropped 4.1% for the quarter, impacted by two hurricanes disrupting operations and warm weather delaying winter boot sales.

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Gross profit margin for the quarter was 36.0%, marking the 15th consecutive quarter above 35%, but was 80 basis points lower than last year.

The company continues to expect Rogan’s acquisition to deliver net sales of over $80 million in fiscal 2024, with $22.3 million of net sales in the third quarter of 2024 and $63.9 million year-to-date in 2024.

As of November 21, the company operated 431 stores, with 361 Shoe Carnival stores, 42 Shoe Station stores and the 28 Rogan’s locations. One new Shoe Station store opened in third quarter was in Tennessee, expanding this banner into a new market.

At the end of third quarter, the company had approximately $91.1 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities.

Outlook: Shoe Carnival lowered its FY24 net sales outlook to $1.20 billion – $1.23 billion (estimate: $1.23 billion), down from the previously expected $1.23 billion – $1.25 billion, but maintains adjusted EPS guidance of $2.60 – $2.75 (estimate: $2.63).

Price Action: SCVL shares are trading higher by 1.25% to $33.89 premarket at last check Thursday.

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