Dj Wingstop Inc, Inst Holders, 4Q 2024 (Wing)

These reports, excerpted and edited by Barron's, were issued recently by investment and research firms. The reports are a sampling of analysts' thinking; they should not be considered the views or recommendations of Barron's. Some of the reports' issuers have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or other services to the companies being analyzed.

Gambling.com Group — GAMB-Nasdaq Buy — $15.75 on Feb. 19 by Benchmark Gambling.com Group's fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted Ebitda both coming in ahead of consensus. The 2025 guidance was in line with expectations, which we view as a starting point, as management will likely over-deliver. Given the ongoing audit process with Odds Holdings, which likely won't conclude until late March or early April, the company is not able to conduct a secondary offering for existing shareholders.

The suspicion from investors that Gambling.com may be considering such a transaction, particularly following the preannouncement this morning, could be contributing to recent share weakness. We would be opportunistic buyers on a pullback, and we are reiterating our Buy rating and $18 price target.

Wingstop — WING-Nasdaq Buy — $306.02 on Feb. 19 by Stifel Wingstop reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.92 (Stifel $0.82, Street $0.86), with the upside to the Street estimate driven primarily by higher royalty and franchise fees contribution; lower selling, general, and administrative expenses; and other income.

While comps were roughly in line at 10.1% (Street 11.6%), adjusted Ebitda of $56.3 million was higher than expected (Street $51.9 million). As we previewed, the company offered domestic comp guidance below historic levels, up low-single to mid-single digit range, given that comps have increased 40% over the past two years.

We believe there are several opportunities to maintain mid-single-digit-plus comp momentum in 2025, including a growing advertising budget, product innovation, new loyalty program capabilities, and building awareness through unit expansion, which should lead to compounding sales growth. We recommend that patient investors buy shares on the pullback.

Devon Energy — DVN-NYSE Buy — $34.88 on Feb. 19 by Siebert Williams Shank After the market close yesterday, Devon Energy reported positive fourth-quarter 2024 results with a beat across total/oil production, discounted cash flow per share, and Ebitda, with free cash flow in line with our estimate due to higher capital expenditure associated with land spending.

Devon's 2025 outlook was improved from the preliminary commentary, with higher production on lower spending. Further, Devon boosted its quarterly base dividend by 9.1%, to $0.24 per share, and reaffirmed its cash return target of up to 70% of free cash flow for 2025 with buybacks prioritized over variable dividends at the current valuation.

We expect the positive fourth-quarter 2024 results and more efficient 2025 guidance to be well received in today's trading, as management surpassed the high investor expectations for fourth-quarter 2024 oil production and appears positioned to continue to execute throughout 2025. We maintain our Buy rating on valuation. Target price: $58.

Glaukos — GKOS-NYSE Outperform — $152.96 on Feb. 19 by Mizuho We upgrade Glaukos to Outperform from Neutral following a series of bullish key opinion leader checks that culminated with our expert call last week with Dr. Nathan Radcliffe. Our Outperform thesis is predicated on: 1) the disruptive potential of iDose across the U.S. glaucoma treatment landscape over the next several years, 2) the substantial lead that Glaukos has in the drug-device combo setting, and 3) ability for iDose to drive up to about $7 in adjusted earnings per share by 2030 on modest U.S. penetration assumptions.

Our updated model calls for $125 million in iDose sales exiting 2025E (prior $100 million) and $1 billion-plus by 2029E (prior $585 million) reflecting bullish physician checks over the past several months. We establish a new Street-high $200 price target (prior $140) supported by our updated discounted cash flow model.

Shift4 Payments — FOUR-NYSE Buy — $125.66 on Feb. 19 by BTIG Shift4 Payments was trading down about 11% last night following the company's fourth-quarter 2024 results and investor day presentations. We think the stock price pressure is primarily related to fourth-quarter results and fiscal-year 2025 guidance.

The investor day presentations, on the other hand, were a good reminder of the reasons we believe that Shift4 is an attractive Buy. The company's fiscal 2025 guidance was very conservative, in our view, and entails at least 20% organic growth, while the medium-term fiscal 2027 outlook entails a high-teens organic compound annual growth rate. We reiterate our Buy rating our Shift4, but trim our price target to $135 (from $140).

Cadence Design Systems — CDNS-Nasdaq Buy — $300.43 on Feb. 19 by Needham Cadence guided 2025 top line growth to 11.6% at the midpoint of the guidance range, which aligns with Synopsys' fiscal 2025 guidance at 10.9% (ex. extra week effect). Management expects intellectual property and Intelligent System Design Automation to outperform the company average and grow in the high teens and midteens, respectively. Management thinks that core electronic design automation will underperform and grow in the high-single digits in 2025.

Overall, we believe that the guidance will likely disappoint the market. Our 2025 estimates are reduced accordingly; our 2026 estimates and $325 price target are unchanged. Maintain Buy.

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Consumer stocks were mixed in late Friday afternoon trading, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) rising 1.1% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) falling 2.8%.

In corporate news, Wingstop shares dropped 5.2% after Northcoast downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Domino's Pizza is likely to see soft comparable sales trends continue into the fiscal Q1, but factors including menu innovation are expected to help speed up gains in H2, Wedbush said in a note. It kept its outperform rating while lifting its price target to $500 from $470. Domino's shares were down 1.6%.

Celsius shares jumped 27% after it agreed to buy energy drink maker Alani Nutrition for $1.8 billion in cash and stock.

Tesla is being approached by a Japanese group with a proposal for an investment in Nissan following the failure of its merger attempt with Honda (HMC), The Financial Times reported. Tesla shares were falling 5.2%.

Consumer stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) rising 1.1% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) falling 2.8%.

In corporate news, Wingstop shares fell 5.5% after Northcoast downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

Wingstop shares were down over 5% in recent Friday trading after Northcoast downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.

More than 1 million shares changed hands, exceeding the daily trading volume average of about 611,000 shares.

Wingstop has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $335.95, according to analysts polled by FactSet.