Dj Zscaler Price Target Raised To $235.00/Share From $220.00 By Stifel

Bilibili (BILI) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.08 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 per share. This compares to loss of $0.29 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -20%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this Chinese video sharing website would post a loss of $0.10 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.09, delivering a surprise of 10%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Bilibili, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Services industry, posted revenues of $1.02 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.76%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $795.65 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Bilibili shares have added about 74.8% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 25.5%.

What's Next for Bilibili?

While Bilibili has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Bilibili: favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.23 on $1.08 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.06 on $3.73 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Services is currently in the top 26% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Zscaler (ZS), another stock in the same industry, has yet to report results for the quarter ended October 2024. The results are expected to be released on December 2.

This cloud-based information security provider is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.63 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -6%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Zscaler's revenues are expected to be $605.68 million, up 21.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Zacks Investment Research

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?

Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about Zscaler (ZS).

Zscaler currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.66, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by 38 brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.66 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.

Of the 38 recommendations that derive the current ABR, 25 are Strong Buy and one is Buy. Strong Buy and Buy respectively account for 65.8% and 2.6% of all recommendations.

Brokerage Recommendation Trends for ZS

The ABR suggests buying Zscaler, but making an investment decision solely on the basis of this information might not be a good idea. According to several studies, brokerage recommendations have little to no success guiding investors to choose stocks with the most potential for price appreciation.

Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.

This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.

Zacks Rank, our proprietary stock rating tool with an impressive externally audited track record, categorizes stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and is an effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future. Therefore, using the ABR to validate the Zacks Rank could be an efficient way of making a profitable investment decision.

ABR Should Not Be Confused With Zacks Rank

In spite of the fact that Zacks Rank and ABR both appear on a scale from 1 to 5, they are two completely different measures.

The ABR is calculated solely based on brokerage recommendations and is typically displayed with decimals (example: 1.28). In contrast, the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model allowing investors to harness the power of earnings estimate revisions. It is displayed in whole numbers -- 1 to 5.

It has been and continues to be the case that analysts employed by brokerage firms are overly optimistic with their recommendations. Because of their employers' vested interests, these analysts issue more favorable ratings than their research would support, misguiding investors far more often than helping them.

In contrast, the Zacks Rank is driven by earnings estimate revisions. And near-term stock price movements are strongly correlated with trends in earnings estimate revisions, according to empirical research.

Furthermore, the different grades of the Zacks Rank are applied proportionately across all stocks for which brokerage analysts provide earnings estimates for the current year. In other words, at all times, this tool maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns.

Another key difference between the ABR and Zacks Rank is freshness. The ABR is not necessarily up-to-date when you look at it. But, since brokerage analysts keep revising their earnings estimates to account for a company's changing business trends, and their actions get reflected in the Zacks Rank quickly enough, it is always timely in indicating future price movements.

Is ZS Worth Investing In?

Looking at the earnings estimate revisions for Zscaler, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has remained unchanged over the past month at $2.87.

Analysts' steady views regarding the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by an unchanged consensus estimate, could be a legitimate reason for the stock to perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Zscaler. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here

It may therefore be prudent to be a little cautious with the Buy-equivalent ABR for Zscaler.

Zacks Investment Research

Zscaler (ZS) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.

Over the past month, shares of this cloud-based information security provider have returned +7.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3% change. During this period, the Zacks Internet - Services industry, which Zscaler falls in, has gained 10.3%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Zscaler is expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share, indicating a change of -6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

The consensus earnings estimate of $2.87 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -10%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.47 indicates a change of +21% from what Zscaler is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Zscaler is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Revenue Growth Forecast

While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.

For Zscaler, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $605.68 million indicates a year-over-year change of +21.9%. For the current and next fiscal years, $2.61 billion and $3.12 billion estimates indicate +20.6% and +19.3% changes, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

Zscaler reported revenues of $592.87 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +30.3%. EPS of $0.88 for the same period compares with $0.64 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $567.62 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +4.45%. The EPS surprise was +27.54%.

The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period.

Valuation

Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Zscaler is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Bottom Line

The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Zscaler. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.

Zacks Investment Research