ECB Set to Aid Waning Economy With Fourth Rate Cut

Central Bank

Summary:

The European Central Bank is set to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year, loosening constraints on the region’s struggling economy as inflation nears 2%.

ECB Set to Aid Waning Economy With Fourth Rate Cut_1

All but one analyst polled by Bloomberg predict another quarter-point reduction in the deposit rate on Thursday, to 3%. Only JPMorgan Chase sees a bigger, half-point move, arguing that recent data point to softer growth and inflation.

Officials are certainly worried about the economic trajectory, with some fretting that persistent sluggishness could drag inflation below target. They’re also grappling with government collapses in Germany and France, and are trying to gauge how Donald Trump’s economic agenda will impact not just Europe, but also the Federal Reserve.

But against that backdrop, there’s a preference to lower borrowing costs only gradually. Helping shape their path during the months ahead will be fresh quarterly projections that are likely to signal weaker price gains and gross domestic product in 2025.

The ECB will announce its decision at 2:15 p.m. in Frankfurt. President Christine Lagarde will host a press conference 30 minutes later.

Interest Rates

When the ECB brought forward its third rate cut to October, the economic situation looked so dismal that officials debated whether they’d have to follow up with a 50 basis-point move to avoid falling behind the curve.

That discussion eventually fizzled out as GDP was stronger than anticipated in the third quarter. Only a handful of policymakers demanded that a large reduction remain on the table in December.

Investors have all but stopped pricing the risk of such a step, though they reckon it’s a possibility for one of the next meetings. Economists expect consecutive quarter-point decreases until the deposit rate reaches 2%.

With even hawks agreeing that Thursday’s cut won’t be the last, the ECB may tweak the language in its policy statement — specifically the part that currently says it will “keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary.” It will want to stay flexible, though, and is unlikely to depart from its “meeting-by-meeting” approach.

Policymakers have also begun looking further ahead by staking out positions on whether rates will have to fall below neutral — a theoretical threshold that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy and is generally considered to be about 2%.

Some, including France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Italy’s Fabio Panetta, say this should be considered. But Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned against going too far, which could squander valuable policy space at a time when the economy is being held back more by structural issues that monetary policy can do little about.

Economic Forecasts

The ECB has long been banking on higher wages and rising household spending to power a recovery. In September, it saw growth picking up to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, from 0.8% this year.

But after the latest monthly surveys of purchasing managers signaled that the malaise in manufacturing is spreading to services, such assumptions look too rosy. Most analysts expect the forecast for 2025 to be trimmed.

As for inflation, which ticked up to 2.3% last month though is largely seen as under control, analysts anticipate downgrades for 2024 and 2025. In 2026, the forecast will probably remain at an average of 2%. There’s also be a first glimpse at 2027.

An obvious shortcoming in this round of projections is what they don’t contain — a potential trade conflict with the US, for one, but also the fiscal effect of new governments in Germany and France. That could be addressed by exploring alternative scenarios — as the ECB has sometimes done in the past.

French Turmoil

The failure of France’s parliament to agree on a budget brought new turbulence to the country’s debt markets, with yields rising as high as Greece’s at one point. That sparked speculation that the ECB could deploy the emergency bond-buying tool it created in 2022.

Questioned about the prospect, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the instrument isn’t meant to contain movements that reflect political developments. Lagarde may argue along similar lines if the topic comes up at her press conference.

Source:Alexander Weber

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures are down -0.15%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are down -0.23% this morning as Treasury yields marched higher, while investors awaited crucial U.S. producer inflation data as well as the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a new record high. Broadcom climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after The Information reported that Apple was working with the chipmaker on a server chip exclusively designed for artificial intelligence.

Also, megacap technology stocks advanced, with Tesla gaining more than +5% and Nvidia rising over +3%. In addition, GameStop rose more than +7% after the videogame retailer reported a surprise Q3 profit. On the bearish side, Walgreens Boots Alliance slid over -5% after analysts cast doubt on the likelihood of Sycamore Partners acquiring the drugstore chain.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices increased +0.3% m/m in November, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation picked up to +2.7% in November from +2.6% in October, in line with expectations. Also, the November core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, remained unchanged from October at +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.

“The debate for the FOMC next week between cut or skip is over. This inflation print should be risk asset friendly and provide a tailwind to equity markets as we move through one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. November PPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.

The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect November figures to be +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y, compared to October’s numbers of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 221K, compared to last week’s number of 224K.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Broadcom, Costco, and Ciena are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.300%, up +0.66%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.02% this morning as investors geared up for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Energy stocks outperformed on Thursday. China-exposed mining and luxury stocks also advanced after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that “China is open to contact and communication with the Trump administration’s economic and trade team.”

The ECB is widely expected to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points for the fourth time this year amid a deteriorating economic outlook and ongoing political instability in France and Germany. The central bank is also set to release updated growth and inflation projections, which are expected to be revised lower for the coming year.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank delivered a larger-than-anticipated 50-basis-point rate cut on Thursday, lowering the key policy rate to 0.50%. In corporate news, Lonza Group Ag climbed over +6% following the Swiss contract drugmaker’s announcement of plans to exit its capsules and health ingredients business.

The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Thursday.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.85%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.21%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, continuing its upward trend driven by expectations of additional growth measures from Beijing. Liquor stocks led the gains on Thursday.

Investors are now awaiting details from China’s two-day Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected to outline economic priorities and targets for next year. This comes after Monday’s Politburo meeting readout, where top leaders pledged to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” fiscal policy to boost economic growth.

Meanwhile, Chinese authorities set a stronger-than-expected yuan fixing on Thursday, continuing their support for the currency after it weakened following a Reuters report that the nation is contemplating FX depreciation next year. In other news, China’s commerce ministry stated that it is open to trade talks with the U.S. That followed a CNBC report that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his January inauguration at the White House.

In corporate news, Guosheng Financial climbed +10% after receiving approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the merger and absorption of its subsidiary, Guosheng Securities.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher and hit a 2-month high today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street amid growing expectations for the Fed’s rate cut next week. Electronics and automobile stocks led the gains on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook remains highly uncertain. Bloomberg reported late Wednesday that BOJ officials view little disadvantage in delaying interest rate hikes, although they remain open to an increase next week depending on upcoming data and market developments.

According to the latest Bloomberg survey, January has become the most popular timing among BOJ watchers for the next rate hike, although over 40% still anticipate a move from the central bank next week. In other news, foreign investors became net buyers of Japanese stocks for the first time in three weeks as of December 7th, attracted by a rally in local shares and reduced expectations for the BOJ rate hike.

Foreigners bought 482.3 billion yen ($3.17 billion) worth of Japanese stocks during the week, marking the largest net weekly purchase since November 9th, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. In corporate news, Digital Hearts gained more than +4% after the company revised its full-year net income forecast, attributing the adjustment to an expected 400 million yen gain from the sale of its subsidiary, Identity. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.92% to 21.97.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Adobe plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after the Photoshop maker issued below-consensus FY25 guidance.

Chewy slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after announcing a public offering of around 15.85 million shares by Buddy Chester Sub, an entity connected to BC Partners Advisors, Chewy’s biggest shareholder.

T-Mobile US fell nearly -1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Overweight.

Constellation Energy rose over +2% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $269 price target.

Boeing gained about +1% in pre-market trading after Northcoast upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell.

Source: Barchart

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Devin

Central Bank

Economic

The EURUSD had been trending downward for two months in the late summer and fall. But then came the latest GDP numbers, where Europe accelerated and the US slowed down. Since then, the currency pair has managed to rebound a bit, and talk of parity has become a lot quieter. The move, however, suggests that economic growth more than inflation is driving the price of the currency. Which has some important implications for how the market reacts to what the shared central bank does.

What Are the Forecasts

Nearly all economists in the latest survey agreed with a prediction that the ECB will cut by 25 bps at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday. The tiny number of dissenters are in favor of a 50 bps cut. The markets are slightly more dovish, pricing in a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut; and a 10% chance of a half-point cut.

What this means is there is room for a move in the currency no matter what the ECB decides. Even in the most likely scenario, that Lagarde & Co go for the 25-pointer, then the markets will likely reprice that 10% dovish chance, giving the currency a bit of a boost. On the other hand, if the ECB does go through with the half-pointer that many in the “southern” countries are asking for (lead by France’s Villeroy), then the market will have a bigger move downward to reprice the 90% prediction that didn’t turn out.

It’s Also About the Future

Markets are overall expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to be quite dovish, despite the recent uptick in inflation. That’s because consumer prices are expected to pop back up for a bit around the end of the year, and then go back down to target in early 2025. The thought is the ECB, facing a near-stagnant economy, won’t want to wait that long to ease. That means that the 25-bps option is expected to come along with a statement and a press conference leaving the door wide open to more easing at the next meeting. If that doesn’t happen, then the market could react as if the central bank in Europe became more hawkish.

There is a strong perception of future easing. Economists forecast 100 bps of cuts next year. Markets are even more dovish, pricing in 150 bps by the end of next year. That makes it more likely for the central bank to surprise to the upside than the downside, giving the Euro an upside risk. However, the bump might fade quickly as easing bias remains strong.

The Effects of the Context

Analysts seem to think that the ECB will likely ignore the political turmoil in Europe and the potential of tariffs next year when Trump takes over the White House again. But, that is likely to come up in the press conference. And the political uncertainty can’t be completely ignored, as the risk premium has driven up bond prices, affecting the currency.

With markets seeming to think that the ECB is now prioritizing economic growth over the last bit of high inflation, the focus could turn to the central bank’s economic projections. The ECB spent decades fighting a slow growth, slow inflation scenario, and it’s understandable that it would like to avoid returning to that. Markets might seize on whether or not the ECB expects the economy to pick up earlier next year or not in order to price in the chances of future easing.

Source:Orbex

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Justin

Economic

Forex

NZD/USD breaks its two days of losses after reaching a two-year low at 0.5761 on Wednesday, currently trading around 0.5820 during the early European hours on Thursday. However, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure due to reports that Beijing may allow the Yuan to depreciate further next year to offset the impact of US tariffs. A weaker Yuan often negatively affects the NZD, considering New Zealand's heavy reliance on China as a key export market.

Additionally, market participants are anticipating a significant 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in its February meeting, which is contributing to the weakening of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

The upside of the NZD/USD pair comes as the US Dollar (USD) corrects downwards after breaking its four-day winning streak despite higher US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 106.40 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.16% and 4.28%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The US Dollar encounters headwinds as the latest US CPI report appears insufficient to dissuade the Federal Reserve (Fed) from reducing interest rates in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is nearly a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18. Traders now turn their attention to the US November Producer Price Index (PPI), set for release on Thursday, for new market catalysts.

Source: FXSTREET

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Justin

Economic

Forex

The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day around 160.35 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens after Reuters reported on Thursday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering keeping interest rates steady at its December meeting next week. A source said, “Policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinising overseas risks and clues on next year's wage outlook.” Later on Thursday, investors will closely monitor the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.

Technically, EUR/JPY resumes its uptrend on the 4-hour chart as the price crosses above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 59.45, supporting the buyers in the near term.

The first upside barrier for the cross emerges at 160.70, the high of December 11. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 161.10, the upper boundary of the ascending trend channel. The next potential resistance level is seen at 162.00, representing the high of November 26 and the round figure.

On the other hand, a breach of the 160.00 psychological level could drag the cross lower to 159.10, the lower limit of the trend channel. Any follow-through selling below the mentioned level could see a drop to 158.65, the low of December 11.

Source: FXSTREET

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Justin

Commodity

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias above the $32.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and remains close to over a one-month high touched earlier this week. Moreover, the technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the upside.

This week's sustained move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the recent move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. Apart from this, positive technical indicators on daily/hourly charts validate the near-term positive outlook for the XAU/USD and support prospects for additional gains.

Hence, a subsequent move up towards retesting the monthly swing high, around the $32.55-$32.60 area, which now coincides with the top boundary of the aforementioned channel, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying will confirm a fresh breakout and lift the XAG/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $32.80-$32.85 region en route to the $33.00 round figure mark and the $33.20-$33.25 horizontal resistance.

On the flip side, weakness below the $32.00-$31.90 area now seems to find some support near the $31.60 horizontal zone ahead of the $31.45-$31.40 confluence. The latter comprises the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the ascending channel support, which if broken decisively might prompt aggressive selling and shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then drop to sub-$31.00 levels en route to mid-$30.00s.

Source: FXSTREET

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

Economic

[Quick Facts]

1. German Chancellor to submit parliament request to hold confidence vote.

2. U.S. senator John Thune says failure is not an option on tax policy.

3. France to set out emergency law to avert government shutdown.

4. Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

5. U.S. November CPI opens door for a December rate cut.

[News Details]

German Chancellor to submit parliament request to hold confidence vote

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on December 11 submitted a formal request for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, the country's lower house of parliament. The vote is expected to take place on December 16. The Bundestag has a total of 733 members. To obtain the confidence of the parliament, Scholz needs more than 367 votes to secure parliamentary confidence and continue governing. However, as of now, only the Social Democratic Party (SPD) parliamentary group, with 207 members, has expressed support for the chancellor. The Green Party, a coalition partner with 117 members, is expected to abstain from the vote, while the largest opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will not back Scholz. German media widely predict that, barring any surprises, Scholz is unlikely to pass the confidence vote.

U.S. senator John Thune says failure is not an option on tax policy

Incoming U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed his hope to introduce a comprehensive tax policy plan before the summer but acknowledged that reaching a consensus on revising the complex tax code would take time. Thune noted that failure is not an option regarding the tax policy. According to him, the challenging issues facing the tax reform bill include determining the baseline to use, whether to make tax cuts permanent and how much should be offset. While negotiations over the complex tax policies are still ongoing, Thune's "two-step" approach differs from the single-step strategy favored by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith. "If we don't act swiftly, we risk being stuck in a quagmire," Smith remarked on Tuesday.

France to set out emergency law to avert government shutdown

French caretaker government spokesperson Maud Bregeon stated on Dec. 11 that the caretaker cabinet meeting held that day proposed a "special law" draft for the 2025 fiscal budget to prevent a government shutdown due to funding issues. The draft will be submitted to Parliament for review next week. Bregeon said the meeting, chaired by President Emmanuel Macron, introduced the "special law" draft to ensure the government can continue functioning in the absence of a finalized 2025 fiscal budget.

Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 basis points

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, marking the second consecutive month of a 50-basis-point rate cut, in line with market expectations. This brings the total rate cuts by the Bank of Canada this year to five, amounting to a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points, making it one of the most aggressive central banks among major economies in easing monetary policy.

However, the central bank also hinted that after the substantial rate cuts expected by the market and most economists, smaller rate reductions might occur in 2025, signaling a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing.

The policy statement indicated that the Canadian economy is primarily weighed down by business investment, inventories, and exports. Year-on-year growth in the third quarter was 1%, slightly below the central bank's forecast, and the preliminary forecast for fourth-quarter growth is also expected to fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, lower interest rates have started to translate into increased household spending, but the economy remains in a state of excess supply. The unemployment rate continues to rise as employment growth lags behind labor force growth.

Governor Tiff Macklem stated at a press conference that the incoming U.S. administration under President-elect Donald Trump may impose tariffs on Canadian exports, calling this "a new major uncertainty." He emphasized that the Bank of Canada would assess the necessity of further rate cuts on a case-by-case basis and noted that monetary policy no longer needs to be clearly restrictive.

Although Canadian policymakers expect inflation to hover near the 2% target in the coming years, reduced immigration targets, a two-month tax break, and potential tariffs could alter the growth and inflation outlook in the coming months.

Monetary policy has successfully brought the inflation rate back to the 2% target, and the current policy focus is on keeping inflation near this level. The Bank of Canada will continuously evaluate the necessity of further rate cuts. The central bank aims to see an economic rebound and to maintain inflation at around 2%. If the economy develops broadly as expected, the Bank of Canada's monetary policy will adopt a "more gradual" approach.

U.S. November CPI opens door for a December rate cut

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data on December 11 showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations.

The rebound in core goods prices was the primary driver of this data, with the 0.3% month-on-month growth rate reaching its highest level since May 2023. However, part of this could be attributed to short-term disruptions, such as extreme weather. Following Hurricane Milton's impact in October, which caused significant damage to homes and vehicles, replacement demand may have driven purchases. New car prices rebounded from flat growth in the previous month to a 0.7% month-on-month increase, while new truck prices rose from flat growth to 0.5%. Used car prices, although slowing from a 2.7% month-on-month increase in October to 2.0%, remained elevated. In addition to weather-related disruptions, another potential factor could be linked to the November elections. After Trump's victory and with the holiday promotion season approaching, concerns about potential tariff increases may have prompted consumers and businesses to accelerate purchases of big-ticket items like vehicles and appliances.

Rental price growth slowed to 0.2% in November, the lowest since 2021, alleviating concerns about rising inflation. Notably, with the Thanksgiving holiday in November, hotel prices surged from 0.5% growth in the previous month to 3.7%. Excluding the rebound in hotel prices, growth in other rental categories slowed more significantly. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of primary residence rents dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%, while owner-equivalent rent growth declined from 0.4% to 0.2%. Given that rental costs account for over one-third of the CPI weighting, the slowdown in rental inflation is undoubtedly a positive sign for curbing core CPI.

Overall, this data essentially opens the door for a December rate cut. Following the data release, the CME's "FedWatch" tool indicated that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surpassed 85%. Inflation's stickiness may prompt the Fed to reduce its guidance for rate cuts in 2025 within its dot plot because the U.S. growth and inflation trajectory in 2025 could be influenced by various factors, including the implementation of Trump's policies and global economic conditions. The Fed may be increasingly dependent on data.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:30 Swiss National Bank December Interest Rate Decision

UTC+8 17:00 Swiss National Bank Chairman's Press Conference

UTC+8 17:00 IEA's Monthly Crude Oil Market Report

UTC+8 21:15 European Central Bank December Interest Rate Decision

UTC+8 21:30 U.S. PPI MoM (Dec)

UTC+8 21:45 ECB President Lagarde's Press Conference

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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ECB Set to Aid Waning Economy With Fourth Rate Cut

Interest Rates

Economic Forecasts

French Turmoil

Source:Alexander Weber

Stocks Slip Before the Open as Bond Yields Climb, U.S. PPI Data and ECB Decision in Focus

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Source: Barchart

European Central Bank (ECB) to Cut, But by How Much?

What Are the Forecasts

It’s Also About the Future

The Effects of the Context

Source:Orbex

Nzd/usd Trades Above 0.5800 After Rebounding From Two-year Lows

Source: FXSTREET

Eur/jpy Price Forecast: Resumes Uptrend Within Ascending Trend Channel Above 160.00

Source: FXSTREET

Silver Price Forecast: Xag/usd Bulls Retain Control Above $32.00, Over One-month High

Source: FXSTREET

December 12th Financial News

[Quick Facts]

[News Details]

[Today's Focus]

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