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Emerson Electric (EMR) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this maker of process controls systems, valves and analytical instruments have returned +18.5% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.7% change. The Zacks Manufacturing - Electronics industry, to which Emerson Electric belongs, has gained 8.4% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.
Earnings Estimate Revisions
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Emerson Electric is expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1%.
The consensus earnings estimate of $5.92 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +7.8%. This estimate has changed +0.3% over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $6.41 indicates a change of +8.4% from what Emerson Electric is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +1.9%.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Emerson Electric.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Emerson Electric, the consensus sales estimate of $4.24 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +2.9%. The $18.13 billion and $18.9 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +3.7% and +4.2%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Emerson Electric reported revenues of $4.62 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.9%. EPS of $1.48 for the same period compares with $1.29 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.58 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.94%. The EPS surprise was +0.68%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.
As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Emerson Electric is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Emerson Electric. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
Zacks Investment Research
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 20, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp. ZWS, Eaton Corp. plc ETN, Emerson Electric Co. EMR and Powell Industries, Inc. POWL.
Industry: Electronics Manufacturing
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2371962/4-manufacturing-electronics-stocks-to-watch-despite-industry-headwinds
The Zacks Manufacturing - Electronics industry has been grappling with persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector, slowdown in new orders and supply-chain disruptions. Rising input costs, restructuring expenses and a tough labor market also create concerns for the industry.
However, the industry is benefiting from steady demand across the electronic services end market and increased adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp., Eaton Corp. plc, Emerson Electric Co. and Powell Industries, Inc. appear well-poised to capitalize on the opportunities.
Industry Description
The Zacks Manufacturing-Electronics industry comprises companies that manufacture electronic products like battery chargers, battery accessories, outdoor cabinet enclosures, power transmission products, electrical motion controls and motive power devices. Some industry players also provide water-treatment products, engineered flow components, process equipment and turn-key systems.
These companies offer state-of-the-art customer support and after-market services to end users. The firms are increasing investments in developing innovative technologies, boosting customer and employee experience, and supply-chain modernization programs. The manufacturing electronic companies sell products and services in various end markets, including robotics, semiconductor, defense, aerospace, medical equipment and satellite communications.
Major Trends Shaping the Future of the Manufacturing Electronics Industry
Weakness in the Manufacturing Sector: Persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector has been denting demand in the industry. After breaking a 16-month contraction streak by growing in March 2024, the manufacturing sector contracted for the seventh consecutive month in October. Per the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) report, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index touched 46.5% in October, lower than the 47.2% recorded in both September and August. A figure less than 50% indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. Also, the New Orders Index remained in the contraction territory for seven consecutive months, registering 47.1% in the previous month.
Supply-Chain Disruptions: Supply-chain disruptions, especially related to the availability of electrical and electronic components, have been concerning for industry participants recently. This is evident from the latest ISM report’s Supplier Deliveries Index, which reflected slower deliveries for the fourth successive month in October. Supply-chain issues, if not controlled, may continue to raise warehouse and other logistics expenses.
Rising Costs Hurt Margins: Industry participants have been encountering input cost inflation and other expenses, denting profitability. A few industry players have been incurring higher restructuring expenses and headcount-related costs. The rise in expenses, along with a tough labor market, poses a threat to margins. However, companies have been focused on cost management initiatives to mitigate cost-related challenges. These include streamlining operational structures, optimizing supply networks and implementing effective pricing strategies.
Strength in the Electronics Services Market: Despite a slowdown in manufacturing activities, demand across key end markets has been stable. Electronics manufacturers are steadily benefiting from the higher adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies and processes by original equipment manufacturers.
The requirement for integrating advanced electronic components into machinery and electronic devices has been supporting the electronics manufacturing services market. In addition, a few industry players with wide exposure to the booming medical and life science markets are witnessing a positive momentum across their businesses due to sturdy demand for their products and solutions.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bleak Prospects
The Zacks Manufacturing – Electronics industry, housed within the broader Zacks Industrial Products sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #163. This rank places it in the bottom 35% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates weak prospects in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than two to one.
The industry’s positioning in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of the negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are putting less faith in this group's earnings growth potential. The industry’s earnings estimates for 2024 have decreased 11.3% over the past year.
Despite bleak near-term prospects, we will present a few stocks that you may want to retain in your portfolios. However, it is worth looking at the industry’s shareholder returns and current valuation first.
Industry Lags Sector & the S&P 500
The Zacks Manufacturing – Electronics industry has underperformed the broader sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite index in the past year.
Over this period, the industry has gained 28.5% compared with the sector’s and S&P 500 Index’s growth of 28.9% and 29.2%, respectively.
Industry's Current Valuation
On the basis of forward 12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E), which is a commonly used multiple for valuing manufacturing stocks, the industry is currently trading at 26.48X compared with the S&P 500’s 22.13X. It is also above the sector’s P/E ratio of 21.03X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 28.43X and as low as 14.78X, with the median being 22.48X.
4 Manufacturing - Electronics Stocks to Keep a Tab On
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions: Based in Milwaukee, WI, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of water management solutions primarily in the United States and Canada. ZWS is poised to gain from the growing awareness of the need for clean, filtered drinking water, solid demand for its products and solutions, and its focus on operational execution.
In the past year, shares of Zurn Elkay Water Solutions have gained 32.9%. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 8.5%, on average, beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s 2024 earnings has been revised upward by 2.5% in the past 60 days. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Eaton: Based in Dublin, Ireland, Eaton is a diversified power management company and a global technology leader in electrical components and systems. It is benefiting from rising demand from the new AI data center and contributions from its organic assets. Reindustrialization and megatrends will create more opportunities for Eaton in the near term. ETN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The company’s shares have rallied 57.6% in the past year. ETN reported better-than-expected results in each of the last four quarters, the average being 3.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 earnings has been revised upward by 0.4% in the past 60 days.
Emerson: Headquartered in St. Louis, MO, Emerson is a diversified global engineering and technology company. It offers a wide range of products and services to customers in consumer, commercial and industrial markets. EMR is benefiting from solid momentum in the Intelligent Devices and Software and Control segments. Strength in the energy and power end markets is aiding the final control business. A strong backlog conversion level is aiding the Measurement & Analytical business’ revenues. The successive acquisitions of Afag and Flexim spark optimism in the stock.
This Zacks Rank #3 company’s shares have rallied 45.9% in the past year. It reported better-than-expected results in each of the last four quarters, the average being 6.7%.
Powell Industries: Headquartered in Houston, TX, the company is engaged in designing, manufacturing and distributing custom-engineered equipment and systems. It has been witnessing several favorable trends across its strong growth across the oil & gas, and petrochemical sectors. Also, solid momentum in the commercial and other industrial sectors is likely to drive its performance in the quarters ahead.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #3-rated company have soared 245.9% in the past year. POWL reported better-than-expected results in the trailing four quarters, the average being 69.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal 2025 (ending September 2025) earnings has remained steady in the past 60 days.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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